Raging Moderates with Jessica Tarlov & David Frum

Episode: Why Progressives Won’t WIN in the 2026 Midterms
Date: October 22, 2025
Guest: David Frum (The Atlantic)
Host: Jessica Tarlov (co-host, The Five)
Producer: Vox Media Podcast Network

Overview

This episode of Raging Moderates dives into why centrist and moderate messages remain critical for Democrats heading into the 2026 midterms, the pitfalls of progressive branding, and why running against Trump may not be enough to drive future electoral wins. Jessica Tarlov, standing in as solo host, welcomes David Frum for a wide-ranging, lively, and often humorous discussion. They explore electoral strategy, the Democratic Party’s identity crisis, U.S. foreign interventions under Trump, and the challenges facing a new generation of political candidates.

Key Discussion Points

1. Democrats' Strategy: Eternal "Run Against Trump"

Timestamps: 03:31–11:43

• Why the anti-Trump message persists:

  • Tarlov observes Democrats continue to tie their opponents to Trump, even a year after losing the White House.
  • Frum argues it’s “completely logical” to focus on Trump, given his continued control over the GOP, unpopularity, and open disdain for constitutional norms.
  • “Of course, you run against the president. Who would say otherwise?” — David Frum (05:34)

• How the left rationalizes past failures:

  • Frum critiques media and party insiders who gloss over failed progressive candidates by advocating vague “affirmative” messaging. He suggests it’s more about defending strategic missteps than genuine new direction.
  • “When people try to sell you a vision of ‘you need an affirmative message in a midterm election,’ what they’re usually trying to do is bootstrap into the party discussion an argument that would not succeed on its merits.” — David Frum (09:39)

Memorable Banter

• The pair riff on U.S.–Canada relations and Blue Jays baseball:
  • “If the Blue Jays win, the United States becomes the 11th province.” — David Frum (03:00)
  • “That’s very good. I think that should be how it works.” — Frum (03:07)

2. The Myth of a Single Winning Formula & Progressive vs. Moderate Success

Timestamps: 11:43–16:44

• No universal formula:
  • Frum underscores that what works in one district (economically progressive/socially moderate) may fail elsewhere; midterms allow for “flexibility,” not uniform messaging.
  • “If you’re the out party, you get to be flexible and there is no formula.” — David Frum (13:03)
• Who really wins:
  • Trend: Moderates or “economically moderate, socially moderate” candidates perform best in swing districts — not the loudest progressives.
  • Tarlov reflects on the tension between desired and effective campaign branding.

3. The Democratic Branding Problem & Progressive Pitfalls

Timestamps: 16:44–18:05

• Progressive issues that hurt Democrats:
  • Frum points out “crime, immigration, and, to a lesser degree, trans issues” have become key liabilities, claiming the party misjudged the impact of ‘soft on crime’ and ‘decarceration’ pushes.
• Why governance matters:
  • “If you’re trying to make things work, you need politicians who understand how things work. You need responsible people.” — David Frum (16:15)

4. Messaging, Slogans, and Voter Motivation

Timestamps: 16:44–18:05

• Tarlov laments Democrats’ inability to condense messaging into pithy slogans, contrasting with Republican simplicity:
  • “No tax on tips, build a wall.” — Jessica Tarlov (16:48)
• Frum observes everyone campaigns on some version of “More for you”, but the details and delivery matter.

5. "Wars in the Caribbean": Trump’s Foreign Policy Escalation

Timestamps: 20:40–32:31

• U.S. military action in the Caribbean:
  • Trump orders strikes on “narco boats," resulting in civilian deaths and tensions, especially with Colombia and Venezuela.
  • Officials cast doubt that the targeted boats are contributing to U.S. fentanyl problems; most cargo is Europe/Africa-bound cocaine or marijuana.
• Is this about drugs or something else?
  • Frum sees this as a potentially reckless sop to hawkish Trump supporters, and notes the high costs and dangers of such operations.
• Moral/strategic critique:
  • “If you’re serious about this, you have to rededicate yourself to Plan Colombia ... You can’t just do Hegseth policy: just, ‘let’s blow up something and see what happens.’” — David Frum (30:01)

Memorable Analogy

• Frum recounts Daniel Patrick Moynihan’s story of a $5 million heroin bust and George Shultz’s withering economic logic, ending with:
  • “Dan, there may be hope for you after all.” — George Shultz (29:52)

6. The Graham Platner Scandal & the Age of Digital Baggage

Timestamps: 35:13–41:59

• Maine Senate race in jeopardy:

  • Bernie-backed Graham Platner apologizes for years of offensive Reddit posts; divides Democratic opinions.
  • Frum is skeptical of after-the-fact apologies and calls for more authentic preemptive disclosures.
  • “If you take responsibility after someone else finds you out, I don't think you took responsibility.” — David Frum (36:07)

• The new era of digital skeletons:

  • Tarlov questions what online baggage means for Millennials/Gen Z candidates. Frum says selective forgiveness is real, but staff loyalty hinges on honesty and real “change of heart.”

7. The Gerontocracy Debate: Age, Succession & Party Future

Timestamps: 41:59–46:18

• Aging politicians & the risks:
  • Frum jokes that a “smoking Supreme Court justice” would resolve the Succession dilemma earlier, referencing Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s late-life tenure.
• Public health revolution and its electoral impact:
  • Frum suggests rapid decline in health means age limits are hard to set but aging leaders can create damaging party bottlenecks.
  • “You can be a very vigorous and healthy 77 and then a very sickly and feeble 79.” — David Frum (42:11)
• Biden lesson:
  • Frum argues Biden’s age made him unable to resist the Democratic left, leading to a presidency that diverged from his campaign’s centrist promises.

8. School Closures: Biden Administration’s Critical Miss

Timestamps: 44:52–47:59

• Frum: The failure to reopen schools in 2021 was a pivotal electoral and societal blunder for Democrats.
• The “balance of risk” wasn’t clearly communicated; Democratic acquiescence to teachers’ unions had grave downstream effects (dropouts, crime).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On running against Trump:
  “Donald Trump is the President … Of course, you run against the president. Who would say otherwise?” — David Frum (05:34)

• On Democratic flexibility:
  “There is no formula. And I think what happens is, there are a lot of Democratic strategists who don’t just want to win, but want to win a certain way.” — David Frum (12:53)

• On authenticity after political apology scandals:
  “If you take responsibility after someone else finds you out, I don’t think you took responsibility. Accountability begins with you being the first to say...” — David Frum (36:07)

• On school closures and generational priorities:
  “I have very little sympathy for COVID second-guessing… but the President of the United States has to be the one to say, you know what, the next generation counts most.” — David Frum (47:17)

• On the role of all public offices:
  “State assembly, state senate, school board, city government. These are all intensely important callings. … Every job matters.” — David Frum (49:42)

Tone & Style

• The episode is brisk, lively, and conversational, with Tarlov’s trademark sharpness and Frum’s wit and candor.
• Humor and warmth emerge even in serious takes, especially during opening banter and the anecdote-packed foreign policy segment.
• Both exhibit a centrist skepticism of ideological extremes and offer pragmatic—if sometimes sobering—advice to both parties.

Conclusion & Takeaways

• The Democratic Party’s best hope lies not in blanket progressive messaging, but in flexible, locally attuned strategies and candidates who are forthright and pragmatic.
• U.S. intervention abroad, especially in the drug war, requires nuance and a recognition of historical lessons—not just showy force.
• The nature of political scandal, apology, and forgiveness is rapidly transforming as digital footprints expand; candidates’ authenticity will matter more than ever.
• Voters should learn that impactful political participation exists at every level, not just Congress or the White House.

For Further Listening

• For more on centrist takes on current politics, tune in every Wednesday and Friday to Raging Moderates on Vox Media Podcast Network.