Raging Moderates: The Final Stretch and What To Look for on Election Night

Episode Release Date: November 5, 2024
Hosts: Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov
Podcast Network: Vox Media Podcast Network

Introduction

In this pivotal episode of Raging Moderates, hosts Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov delve deep into the final week of the election campaign, dissecting the latest polling data, candidate performances, and strategic moves as Election Day approaches. The conversation is rich with insights, notable quotes, and a centrist analysis of the unfolding political landscape.

Significant Iowa Polling Shake-Up

[01:54] Scott Galloway: "The thing that has absolutely blown my mind is that poll that came out of Iowa."

Jessica Tarloff elaborates on the surprising results from renowned pollster J. Ann Selzer, revealing Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by three points in Iowa. This is a remarkable shift, especially considering Trump won Iowa by eight points in 2020.

[02:58] Jessica Tarloff: "Harris up 2 to 1 with seniors, with female seniors."

The Iowa poll indicates a substantial gender gap, with Harris particularly strong among women and senior voters. This shift suggests broader implications for other battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, where similar demographic trends may influence outcomes.

Gender and Senior Voter Influence

The conversation highlights the critical role of gender and senior voters in the current election dynamics. Harris's ability to connect with these groups, especially in light of recent policy implementations like Iowa's abortion ban, resonates strongly.

[02:03] Jessica Tarloff: "Harris is up 20 with women, up 28 points with women who are affiliated with no party, who are, quote, independents."

This significant support among independent women and seniors underscores Harris's broad appeal beyond traditional party lines, positioning her favorably in key states.

Trump's Declining Image and Campaign Missteps

Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov discuss Trump's recent appearances, noting a perceived decline in his public persona. Trump's aging image and less robust performances contrast sharply with his usual presentation.

[10:02] Scott Galloway: "Trump, in that last rally, he looked a. He looked weak. He's getting that weak breath, weak voice."

This shift may be contributing to waning support, as voters prioritize vitality and leadership qualities in their candidates. Additionally, Trump's controversial campaign strategies and focus on fringe issues are seen as potential liabilities.

RFK Jr.'s Campaign and Its Impact

The hosts reflect on RFK Jr.'s campaign, critiquing his stances on vaccines and health safety as out of step with mainstream views.

[14:28] Jessica Tarloff: "RFK Jr. S views on vaccines and health and safety are so far outside the mainstream."

Despite his charisma, RFK Jr.'s positions may alienate moderate voters, potentially benefiting Harris by consolidating the Democratic base against a less conventional opponent.

SNL Sketch and Media Influence

Jessica praises the Saturday Night Live sketch featuring Kamala Harris, which effectively humanizes and likens her to other political figures, enhancing her likability.

[11:48] Jessica Tarloff: "I thought she was so charming."

Such media portrayals play a crucial role in shaping public perception, making Harris appear relatable and likable to a broader audience.

Legal Challenges and Election Integrity

As Election Day approaches, the discussion turns to the anticipated legal battles over vote counts and election integrity.

[29:27] Jessica Tarloff: "The Republicans were saying that it was illegal, and they were brought in front of the judge."

Both campaigns are preparing for potential lawsuits, with Democrats holding the advantage due to more robust legal teams. The hosts express concern over the erosion of trust in electoral institutions, emphasizing the dangerous implications of widespread misinformation.

[32:15] Scott Galloway: "It's a lack of respect for institutions, which is a lack of respect for the country."

This erosion of trust poses significant risks to the democratic process, highlighting the need for reaffirming institutional integrity.

Battleground States and Final Predictions

Scott and Jessica analyze the battleground states, weighing the latest poll data and ground game efforts. They focus on states like Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, where outcomes are still uncertain.

[38:37] Jessica Tarloff: "I predict, nauseously optimistic that Kamala wins."

Both hosts lean towards a decisive victory for Harris, citing strong organizational efforts, demographic shifts favoring Democrats, and Trump's diminishing appeal as key factors. They also discuss the potential for a split government, which could result in a House controlled by Democrats and a Senate held by Republicans.

[39:47] Scott Galloway: "I agree with you. Both the Senate and the House... it's going to be a split government."

This prediction underscores the complexity of the electoral landscape, where no single party may gain complete control, impacting legislative productivity and governance.

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

As the episode wraps up, Scott and Jessica emphasize the importance of voter turnout, particularly among women and younger demographics, which they believe will steer the election in Harris's favor.

[43:42] Jessica Tarloff: "I love it. I agree with you about the women showing up."

They call for a balanced approach post-election, advocating for inclusive politics that bridge gender and ideological divides. The episode concludes with a hopeful outlook on the power of organized, motivated voters to shape the nation's future.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Scott Galloway [01:25]: "But what was really interesting is this line between what people think of as abortion Typically pro-life people and what people think of as health care."

• Jessica Tarloff [02:58]: "Harris is up 20 with women, up 28 points with women who are affiliated with no party, who are, quote, independents."

• Scott Galloway [10:02]: "Trump, in that last rally, he looked a. He looked weak. He's getting that weak breath, weak voice."

• Jessica Tarloff [14:28]: "RFK Jr.' S views on vaccines and health and safety are so far outside the mainstream."

• Scott Galloway [29:27]: "It's a lack of respect for institutions, which is a lack of respect for the country."

• Jessica Tarloff [38:37]: "I predict, nauseously optimistic that Kamala wins."

• Jessica Tarloff [43:42]: "I love it. I agree with you about the women showing up."

This comprehensive summary captures the essence of Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov's analysis in the final stretch of the election, offering listeners a detailed overview of the key discussions, insights, and predictions shaping this critical moment in American politics.