Raging Moderates Episode Summary: "Trump’s Day One Agenda, Syria’s Civil War, and 2025 Predictions"

Release Date: December 10, 2024

Hosts: Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlove

1. Introduction and Personal Updates

The episode begins with casual chatter between hosts Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlove, sharing snippets of their personal lives. Jessica mentions celebrating her three-year-old's Frozen-themed birthday, while Scott recounts an unconventional weekend in the Cotswolds involving a shotgun shoot and humorous anecdotes about his attire. This light-hearted opening sets the tone before delving into the episode's primary topics.

2. Trump's Day One Agenda

Overview of Planned Actions

Scott introduces the main focus: President-elect Donald Trump's immediate plans upon taking office on January 20. Trump outlined several key initiatives:

Pardon of January 6 rioters on day one.
Extension of first-term tax cuts.
Deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants.
Efforts to end birthright citizenship.
Protection solutions for Dreamers.
No new restrictions on abortion pills.

Notable Quote:
Scott Galloway [09:55]: "Donald Trump is like, he says, I'm ending birthright citizenship. I'm deporting families together."

Analysis and Reactions

Jessica reflects on the rapid shift in political landscapes following Trump's election, noting the swift inauguration activities and Trump's proactive engagement with global leaders, contrasting Biden's more subdued transition. She emphasizes the dual perception of Trump's policies—appealing to his base while causing alarm among centrists and Democrats.

Scott expresses skepticism about the feasibility of Trump's ambitious agenda, highlighting the robustness of the U.S. checks and balances system. He draws parallels to historical injustices, questioning the potential ramifications of policies like mass deportations.

Notable Quote:
Scott Galloway [14:34]: "The reason why America, in my opinion, across a lot of dimensions is so successful is you have to have a massive base of innovation to create economic values..."

Jessica underscores the complexity of immigration, pointing out that many immigrants support Trump's policies despite their personal backgrounds. She highlights the economic motivations behind Trump's stance, noting that deregulation appeals to business owners seeking fewer barriers.

Notable Quote:
Jessica Tarlove [16:05]: "Donald Trump is out there saying, I'm going to cut regulations like you've never seen before. He saved $200 billion and cut regulations in the first term."

3. Syria’s Civil War and Assad's Regime Fall

Regime Collapse and Aftermath

The hosts discuss the unexpected collapse of Bashar al-Assad's 50-year rule in Syria following a rebel offensive. Assad fled to Moscow, granting him and his family asylum. President Biden hailed this as an opportunity for Syria to rebuild but cautioned about future risks.

Jessica describes the undercoverage of the event, noting the pivotal moments when Assad's regime fell on the 13th day of the conflict. She highlights rebel leader Abu Mohammed Al Jelani's charismatic leadership and his promises to protect minorities and grant amnesty to Syrian soldiers and conscripts.

Notable Quote:
Jessica Tarlove [22:35]: "He's been imprison... commanded his troops that they cannot interfere with women's clothing at all."

Geopolitical Implications

Scott offers a critical analysis of the geopolitical dynamics that led to Assad's downfall, attributing it to the weakening support from Russia and Iran amidst broader conflicts like Ukraine and tensions with Israel. He praises the Western alliance's efforts and criticizes the lack of public acknowledgment of these successes.

Notable Quote:
Scott Galloway [25:26]: "When you think about really bad people, Assad, Putin, the Islamic regime and Iran, the West being unified around their support of Ukraine, you know we're winning."

Jessica connects the discussion back to domestic politics, emphasizing how successes abroad are not effectively communicated to the American public. She reflects on the enduring impact of failed interventions, such as the missed "red line" during Obama's administration regarding Syria.

Notable Quote:
Jessica Tarlove [33:01]: "How did we let this continue? What we saw the videos of the mass graves. We knew he was gassing his own people. We had a red line."

4. Debate on Presidential Pardons

Biden's Potential Pardons

The conversation shifts to President Biden's contemplation of issuing preemptive pardons to individuals Trump has targeted, including Adam Schiff and Luz Cheney. Scott and Jessica debate the implications of such actions, questioning the precedent it sets and its ethical considerations.

Notable Quote:
Jessica Tarlove [39:43]: "I think Adam Schiff is completely correct. And then Jim Clyburn... said that Trump should pardon, that Biden should pardon Trump and that it would clean the slate."

Historical Context and Future Concerns

Scott draws parallels to past presidencies, referencing Bill Clinton's pardon of his half-brother, and warns of the slippery slope where financial influence could dictate pardon outcomes.

Notable Quote:
Scott Galloway [42:02]: "But generally speaking, I think a donation of 10 million or more might get you a pardon for you and your family should something happen to you over the next four years."

Jessica highlights the bipartisan tension surrounding pardons, noting proposals for constitutional amendments to limit presidential pardon powers. She emphasizes the divisive nature of pardoning individuals without prior convictions.

Notable Quote:
Jessica Tarlove [43:49]: "There was at least rumor reporting that those were conversations going on in the first Trump administration."

5. House of Representatives Leadership Shakeups

Narrow Republican Majority and Democratic Strategy

Scott and Jessica examine the House's slim Republican majority of 217 to 215 seats. They discuss the strategic implications for both parties, emphasizing the Democrats' efforts to unify and potentially flip key Republican seats to secure legislative outcomes.

Notable Quote:
Scott Galloway [44:37]: "I see you as sort of quiet power. I see you as like head of fundraising."

Emerging Democratic Leaders

The hosts highlight the Democrats' leadership changes, spotlighting figures like Jamie Raskin and the potential rise of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) to higher positions. They debate the effectiveness of older versus younger leadership in galvanizing the party and appealing to a broader electorate.

Notable Quote:
Jessica Tarlove [46:50]: "At the DNC, and we were both very taken with her speech. One of the top ones from the convention, at least for me."

Scott advocates for generational change within the Democratic Party, criticizing the age and perceived ineffectiveness of current leaders like Charles Schumer and Mitch McConnell.

Notable Quote:
Scott Galloway [48:37]: "I think these people are way too old. We have the oldest legislative body... I'll love mandatory retirement age."

6. 2025 Political and Geopolitical Predictions

Domestic Policy Forecasts

Jessica predicts that Trump will proceed with his core campaign promises, including immigration crackdowns and restoration of tax cuts through reconciliation. She anticipates debates over entitlement reforms, particularly targeting programs like Food Stamps, while expressing concern over the lack of focus on child poverty reduction.

Notable Quote:
Jessica Tarlove [53:17]: "I'm sure we are going to have some, some level of immigration change."

Healthcare System Overhaul

Scott delves into the impending debates on the U.S. healthcare system, predicting a resurgence of discussions around regulatory capture and the inadequacies of the for-profit model. He suggests that the rising medical debt and systemic inefficiencies will catalyze calls for significant reforms.

Notable Quote:
Scott Galloway [58:23]: "This is just an industry where the profit motive begins to turn healthcare into sick care."

Geopolitical Shifts and Potential Revolutions

Both hosts foresee potential upheavals in Iran, inspired by the recent successes against Assad and internal dissatisfaction with the ruling regime. They speculate on the possibility of broader revolutions akin to Syria's recent developments, contingent on continued Western support and internal pressures within authoritarian states.

Notable Quote:
Scott Galloway [63:10]: "I think it's going to give a lot of license and backbone. I bet there's a lot of entities in Iran right Now who are thinking, is this our moment."

Jessica Tarlove [63:15]: "I just think it's crazy that he made $2 billion off of Saudi and was whatsapping about it."

Conclusion

In this episode of Raging Moderates, Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlove navigate through a complex landscape of domestic policies, international conflicts, and future projections. Their insightful discussions shed light on the immediate actions of the incoming Trump administration, the unexpected fall of Assad's regime, and the evolving dynamics within the U.S. House of Representatives. Looking ahead, their predictions underscore significant challenges and potential shifts both within the United States and on the global stage, highlighting the importance of informed, centrist perspectives in navigating these turbulent times.

For more in-depth discussions and analyses, subscribe to Raging Moderates on your preferred podcast platform and stay tuned for upcoming episodes every Tuesday.