Podcast Summary: Raising Parents with Emily Oster
Episode 7: How Important is Marriage?
Date: October 30, 2024

Overview

In this episode, Emily Oster tackles the historically charged and still-confusing question: How important is marriage for raising children? Exploring the intersection of economics, social policy, and culture, Oster brings together economists, sociologists, policy advisors, and parents to examine trends, data, class disparities, moral arguments, and policy shortcomings regarding marriage. The discussion strives to move beyond ideology, using evidence to ask whether marriage itself, or the resources and stability it often brings, truly matters for children—and what society might do about it.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Cultural Evolution of Marriage

• Fairy Tales, Movies, & Social Norms: Growing up, Oster observed that American culture mythologized the "happily ever after" of marriage and child-rearing. (01:20)
• Changing Realities: The 1960s brought systemic changes—no-fault divorce, the pill, feminism—that altered marriage’s role, especially when viewed by class and race. (01:38)

2. The Moynihan Report & the Political Taboo

• The Moynihan Report (1965): Daniel Patrick Moynihan identified a decline in marriage and a rise in single motherhood among Black families, warning of its social impact. His findings were smeared as racist, resulting in a liberal political reluctance to revisit the topic. (02:31, 03:14)
  • Quote: “I’m not responsible for the fact that he can’t read.” – Daniel Patrick Moynihan (03:35)
• Policy Neglect: The issue defaulted to conservative circles, leaving open, data-driven dialogue stifled for decades. (03:54)

3. The State of Marriage & Single Parenthood in America

• Staggering Decline: US marriage rates have dropped ~60% over 50 years; the share of children raised by single parents tripled since 1950 (from 10% to 30%). Among Black mothers, it’s ~63%. (04:32)
• Child Wellbeing: Single-parent families face three times higher poverty risk; associated with lower academic performance and adult earnings. But: distinguishing correlation from causality is challenging. (05:21)

4. Personal Stories: Family Structures in Practice

• Varied Family Choices: Real parents share their decisions—from cohabitation to single motherhood, from planned partnerships to going solo by choice or circumstance. (06:59-09:16)
  • Quote: “The most important thing for a kid is not if their parents are formally married or not. It’s the kind of love that they grow up with.” – Parent 1 (06:59)
  • Quote: “For the first time, [being a single mom by choice] didn’t sound like a tragedy…It was like, that’s actually a beautiful option.” – Parent 2 (08:02)

5. The Core Data: Is Marriage Beneficial for Kids?

• Framing the Debate: Oster and guests focus on broader patterns, not individual exceptions: On average, is marriage beneficial, and why? (09:37)

With Melissa Carney (University of Maryland, author of The Two Parent Privilege)

• Trends by Education Level: Decline in marriage isn't from more divorce or teen pregnancy (both are down), but from fewer adults marrying before having kids—especially among the “middle education” group (high school/some college). (11:23-13:58)
  • Quote: “A decoupling of being married from having and raising kids.” – Emily Oster (12:37)
• Class & Race Split: Marriage remains common among college-educated and Asian mothers; less so among Black, Hispanic, and “middle education” mothers. (15:18)

Why Does Marriage Matter? Resource & Stability Effects

• Poverty: Single-parent households are multiple times more likely to be in poverty. (17:12)
  • Quote: “Kids who are growing up with a single mom are five times more likely to live in poverty than kids growing up with married parents.” – Melissa Carney (17:13)
• Broader Outcomes: Even when controlling for observable differences: two-parent homes yield better behavioral, educational, and adult income results; the mechanism is not just more money, but also supervision, engagement, and time. (17:52-19:16)

6. Policy Implications: Government Role & Marriage Penalties

With Abby McCloskey (Policy Advisor)

• Neutral Policies: Government should not discourage marriage—but often does, particularly through transfer programs (SNAP, Medicaid, TANF) where getting married can mean losing benefits—a clear “marriage penalty.” Estimated to reduce marriage rates among low-income mothers by up to 14%. (23:37-25:55)
  • Quote: “There are disincentives to marry. … Tens of thousands of marriages that are discouraged just because of how we’ve decided to structure our tax and government programs.” – Abby McCloskey (24:36)
• Other Barriers: Lack of paid parental leave and support for new parents drives financial hardship and discourages family formation. (25:95-26:54)

7. Pushback and Critique of the “Marriage Agenda”

With Philip Cohen (University of Maryland, sociologist)

• Historical Context: The 1950s’ near-universal marriage rates were not voluntary; the following generation rejected it with rising divorce and declining marriage. (29:26-31:53)
  • Quote: “It was a one-generation phenomenon.” – Philip Cohen (31:06)
• Effectiveness of Marriage Promotion: “Never worked anywhere, ever.” Advocating marriage to boost child resources is not evidence-based—better to address underlying material conditions. (29:07-29:17, 36:04)
  • Quote: “As marriage rates have fallen…and fallen…and fallen, rather than everybody stopping… they just keep saying, ‘We need more marriage.’” – Philip Cohen (36:03)

8. The “Success Sequence” and Educating Youth

With Ian Rowe (Vertex Partnership Academies, AEI)

• Informing, Not Shaming: In low-income schools, Rowe teaches students about the “success sequence”—finish high school, get a job, then marry before having children for a 97% chance of avoiding poverty. Students want this information; pushback usually comes from elites, not affected communities. (36:57-40:15)
  • Quote: “Let us know, you tell us so that we can decide what is the right thing to do.” – Student to Ian Rowe (39:40)
• Structural Change: Rowe argues for removing barriers to good jobs and education as preconditions for marriage—linking resources and family formation. (40:52-41:19)

9. Big Data, Nurture, and Intangibles

• Neighborhood Upward Mobility: Raj Chetty’s Opportunity Atlas finds that neighborhoods with more two-parent households have greater upward mobility, not just for their own children, but for the whole community. (41:19)
• Interpretation: Cohen cautions this association is not direct causation; stable marriage may simply reflect other, unmeasured forms of privilege or personal capacity. (43:05)

10. Marriage as Moral Obligation?

With Robert Woodson, Ian Rowe, Melissa Carney

• Practical and Moral: For many children (especially in low-resource settings), marriage modeled in families provides tangible psychological and practical benefits. (44:24)
  • Quote: “Kids need…fathering. … I had to find fathering in the homes of my close friends.” – Robert Woodson (44:36)
• Carney’s Nuance: She does not see marriage as a moral requirement, but believes parents have a strong moral obligation to nurture and care for their children—two parents is one way to meet that responsibility. (46:47)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• “The most important thing for a kid is not if their parents are formally married or not. It’s the kind of love that they grow up with.” – Parent 1 (06:59)
• “A decoupling of being married from having and raising kids.” – Emily Oster (12:37)
• “Kids who are growing up with a single mom are five times more likely to live in poverty than kids growing up with married parents.” – Melissa Carney (17:13)
• “There are disincentives to marry. ...That's tens of thousands of marriages that are discouraged just because of how we've decided to structure our tax and Government programs, that's pretty significant.” – Abby McCloskey (24:36)
• “It was a one-generation phenomenon.” – Philip Cohen (31:06)
• “Let us know, you tell us so that we can decide what is the right thing to do.” – Student to Ian Rowe (39:40)
• “Kids need...fathering. ...I had to find fathering in the homes of my close friends.” – Robert Woodson (44:36)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Introduction & Cultural Framing: 00:46 – 01:38
• Moynihan Report & Taboo: 02:05 – 04:04
• Decline in Marriage / Data Overview: 04:32 – 05:55
• Parent Stories: 06:59 – 09:16
• Melissa Carney on Trends by Education/Race: 10:51 – 15:25
• Links to Poverty and Child Outcomes: 17:02 – 19:16
• Policy & Transfer Programs: 23:37 – 26:54
• Philip Cohen’s Critique of Marriage Promotion: 29:07 – 31:53, 36:03
• Ian Rowe & the Success Sequence: 36:57 – 40:15
• Neighborhood & Upward Mobility Data: 41:19 – 43:05
• Moral Dimensions: 44:24 – 47:55
• Summary & Oster’s Reflection: 48:02 – 50:01

Conclusion

Marriage is, on average, associated with better child outcomes in the US, but the reasons are complex: resources, engagement, and social capital all matter. While marriage can be a pathway to child wellbeing, it’s not the only one—policymaking must acknowledge the diversity of family structures. Social and governmental barriers still discourage marriage and family stability for the most vulnerable. The episode closes by framing “privilege” not as a tool to shame but as a call for more equitable opportunities, aiming to ensure all children have the chance to flourish.

Guests in Order of Appearance:

• Melissa Carney: Economist, University of Maryland
• Abby McCloskey: Policy Advisor
• Philip Cohen: Sociologist, University of Maryland
• Ian Rowe: Vertex Partnership Academies, American Enterprise Institute
• Robert Woodson: Woodson Center

Host: Emily Oster—Maintains her characteristic blend of data-driven rigor, empathy, and humor throughout.

For anyone considering the social, policy, or personal stakes of marriage in childrearing, this episode provides essential context, nuanced analysis, and a diversity of respected expert voices.