Summary3 min read

Podcast Summary: Ranch It Up Radio Show & Podcast

Episode: Has Heifer Retention Begun To Rebuild The Cowherd?
Hosts: Jeff “Tigger” Erhardt & Rebecca “BEC” Wanner
Date: May 8, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode explores the critical question: Has heifer retention begun to rebuild the U.S. cowherd? Hosts Jeff “Tigger” Erhardt and Rebecca “BEC” Wanner focus on current market signals, data from USDA economists, and the impact of live cattle trade with Mexico. The discussion contextualizes these issues within the broader cattle cycle and what it means for producers, with special attention to recent events influencing cattle inventory and regional markets.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Heifer Retention and the Cattle Cycle

Tigger outlines insights from USDA economist Justin Benavitez on how the long-term cattle cycle influences cowherd rebuilding efforts.

Historical Context:
- The U.S. cattle cycle is a “very well documented phenomenon” spanning over a century. [00:35]
Current Data:
- According to Benavitez, data shows the “earliest indicators of a herd rebuild—a slight retention in heifer uptick year over year.” [00:50]
- Despite passionate debate among producers, trends in retention are emerging but remain subtle and gradual.

Memorable Quote:

"The cattle profitability is all based on the cycle… What the data is telling us is that the pattern over time is that we're seeing the earliest indicators of a herd rebuild… Even so, he acknowledges uncertainty remains." — Jeff “Tigger” Erhardt discussing Benavitez’s insights [00:35–01:10]

2. Uncertainty and Skepticism Among Producers

Many in the ranching community hold strong opinions — both for and against the idea that significant heifer retention is underway.
Benavitez cautions that “USDA data… is not telling the full story,” but year-over-year movement provides the best directional signal. [01:15]

Notable Moment:

“He said he hears how people are very passionate on both sides… and USDA data, he says, is not telling the full story.” — Tigger [01:12–01:23]

3. The Role of Border Trade With Mexico

Key Guest Insight:

Darrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension beef economist, provides perspective on the impact of U.S.–Mexico live cattle trade disruptions:
- Peel suggests reopening the border will “not mean a rapid increase of supply to the… market anytime soon.” [01:36]
- “It's going to take time for things to recover,” Peel adds, saying the effect will be felt “weeks to months” down the line, not immediately.
Recent data:
- Before the border closure (due to screwworm detections), imports were on pace to hit 1.4 million head for 2024, above the long-term average of over 1 million head annually. [01:56–02:11]

Quote from Peel (as paraphrased):

“In reality, he doesn't think it's that big of a deal if the border opens, and certainly not immediately… It's going to take time for things to recover.” — Darrell Peel, quoted by Tigger [01:36–01:56]

Notable Quotes & Moments

On the cattle cycle and data:

“Looking back over the last hundred years, the U.S. cattle cycle is a very well documented phenomenon.” — Jeff “Tigger” Erhardt paraphrasing Justin Benavitez [00:37]
On debate among producers:

“He hears how people are very passionate on both sides of whether we're not retaining heifers or we are retaining heifers.” — Tigger [01:12]
On the border closure’s market impact:

“It’s a matter of weeks to months before it would change things a great deal.” — Darrell Peel, via Tigger [01:45]

Timestamps for Important Segments

[00:35–01:25] — Analysis of the cattle cycle, emerging trends in heifer retention, and producer debate
[01:26–02:11] — Effects of the US-Mexico border closure on cattle imports, with insights from Darrell Peel

Tone & Language

The hosts maintain a grounded, informative, and conversational tone, speaking directly to working ranchers and cattle professionals seeking practical understanding of complex market dynamics.

Conclusion

This brief but information-rich segment unpacks the start of herd rebuilding in the U.S. cattle industry by analyzing heifer retention trends, drawing on economist insights, and contextualizing the effects of border closures with Mexico. While passionate debate persists among producers, the data suggests subtle movement toward rebuilding, but the situation remains highly dynamic and uncertain.

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Transcript4 lines

[00:00]
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Your ranch it up Heard it here. Weekly recap is up right after this.
[00:04]
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[00:35]
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USDA economist Justin Benavitez says the cattle cycle remains a reliable guidepost even as producers debate what's really happening on the ground. The cattle profitability is all based on the cycle, he says. Looking back over the last hundred years, the US Cattle cycle is a very well documented phenomenon. He said that while opinions vary widely, he points to gradual trends in the data as the clearest indicator. What the data is telling us is that the pattern over time is that we're seeing the earliest indicators of a herd rebuild a slight retention in heifer uptick year over year. Even so, he acknowledges uncertainty remains. He said he hears how people are very passionate on both sides of whether we're not retaining heifers or we are retaining heifers and and USDA data, he says, is not telling the full story. Even though he continued that year over year, trends still offer the best directional signal of where the industry is heading. One economist believes that if and when the US Border opens to live cattle trade with Mexico, it will be a slow process. Oklahoma State University Extension's eminent beef economist Darrell Peel said any reopening of the U.S. border to Mexican livestock will not mean a rapid increase of supply to the extremely tight CA market anytime soon. Peel said. In reality, he doesn't think it's that big of a deal if the border opens, and certainly not immediately, he says, it's going to take time for things to recover. It's a matter of weeks to months before it would change things a great deal. US cattle imports from Mexico have averaged more than 1 million head annually for decades. In 2024, imports reached 1.25 million cattle and appeared to be on course for about 1.4 million head when the border was closed in response to screwworm detections. And that is your ranch. It up herded here.
[02:31]
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