Loading summary
A
Hey, everyone. As you know, on this podcast, I bring the best guests in the world at that nexus of understanding of macro, crypto and the exponential age of technology. If you're enjoying the show, a quick five star rating goes a long way. It helps us grow and keep these conversations coming with the best guests in the world. Thanks a lot. Welcome everybody, to Miami. They said it always is sunny in Miami. Come down from the snowy north. They said come to Miami. It's been pissing with rain ever since we arrived. But thank you all for coming. I know you've come from all over the world. How many of you are from the US here? Okay, that's a big bunch. I can't actually see anybody because of the lights. How many of you from Canada? All three of you. It's because you're broke because you pay so much in tax. And how many. How many people from Europe? We don't include the UK because you're not Europe anymore. You decided not to. There's a few of you there. The uk, loud as ever. Aussies, Jamie Coots, and there's a few others. So listen. And I know a bunch of come from Dubai, all over the world, so I appreciate it. That's what I love about real vision. This is Drinks with Raoul live. I have no fucking idea what I'm doing. And this is on the Internet and everything else, so it's going to be a total shit show. I don't have a drink. Drink to Raoul. It's not sober with Raoul, is it? You just can't get good people these days. Shannon organized all of this. She brings me a Bud Light, but she is from Texas, so Bud Light is the high point of everything. Let me just try what we've got here today because we usually talk about the drinks. Fucking hell. Somebody. Somebody's giving me Prosecco. I don't know what this trend of Prosecco is. It's utter shit. So I'll wait for some. Something better to arrive. So we have banned bananas this year, as you know. Sorry. Yeah, so we banned bananas because somebody last year made me wear a banana costume. That was the peak of the market. So I'm not going to blame myself or take the blame. This whole session is going to be about blaming everybody else. So it's whoever gave him that bloody banana suit. And then, no, Lance and a few others made me dance around in it. It's your fault, however, you can't hide the banana forever. And this sounds terrible. I don't quite know how to say this. The banana. No, there's no way of saying this good, right? Something about bananas are always there and they'll come when you least expect. No. Oh, fuck. It's gone downhill already. Under three chairs are some bananas. So check under your chair. Anybody's got a banana under the chair will get merch. And why I've got bananas is not actually to do with the banana zone. We don't talk about that, we don't think about that. It's to do with the fact that I am the performing monkey on stage. This is how I feel when I do the drinks with Raoul. I need a fez hat and a tambourine and I can do the performing monkey. But I now feel like you are the monkeys at the zoo. So I've got bananas for you. Anybody who gets a banana gets merch. I have more. There's more. There's bananas to feed the monkeys. Be careful. Good catch. Okay, two more bananas and then go and see Shannon at the end. That was pretty good, right? I think I just took somebody out. So bananas for merch. That's how it's going to go. There's going to be trade offs in this. I've got some notes because there's a lot to get through. But the key point about this whole crypto gathering thing and all about real vision, I say it all the time, but now you can see it and believe it is. It's all about community. We're all in this journey together. We're all trying to unfuck our futures. We're all trying to make our lives, we're all trying to make our worlds a better place for our families, for ourselves. And that's a journey. It's lots of ups and downs. You get things right, you get things wrong. You feel miserable for periods of time, you feel like a hero. But the journey is the journey and to share it with others is the biggest part. And the fact that the real vision community is so smart, so engaged, so sharing helpful of others is the strength that we have. Because it's not about me. I'm just the same as everybody else trying to figure this all out as we go. Different people bring different skill sets as they bring something to this journey for all of us. And so that's the great power of real vision is having all of you lot here. And I'm always immensely grateful to, to see you all together because, you know, it's actually the connections you guys make, make it. You start connecting on platform, you start talking, you start spinning out telegram chats and WhatsApp chats and you start just being part of this together. So you celebrate because you know what it's like. This world is actually. If you're involved in crypto or you're looking at AI, you know those people are in the exponentials and stuff. When you go and have dinner with friends, have no idea what you're talking about and it actually feels a bit lonely. They think you're stupid, all of that stuff. And we are actually stupid. So let's not pretend otherwise. But it's that it's a journey and it's nice to share it with people who are like minded. So I think if you can just all give yourself. This is my blond accomplice. Is this. Oh, it's champagne. At least she knows me. This is blondie. She knows me and looks after me. And so it's really about yes, please. Thank you. I can't do it one handed. I'm very talented, but not that talented. But if you guys can give yourselves a round of applause and if you don't know each other at the table, just say hello to each other because you guys are amazing. And as you know, good. These guys are all shaking hands with each other. This is how we should be doing it, reaching out, making new friends. Because we're from all over the world, all doing weird stuff on this weird journey together. And we all get together by this strange platform. It's weird because in the community people are very nice to each other. They genuinely say, well, why did you get that wrong? Or how did you manage to find that great idea? You know, as we build out these trade ideas on the platform and the notes, if you're not writing notes on the platform, you're missing out because it's becoming a real thing, the trade ideas as well. People are finding unbelievable ideas within our community because it's a smart community and we're learning off each other, we're learning off the content, we're creating new opportunities for each other and it's amazing to see. And then there's Twitter. Twitter is this weird world where all the people who actually like you never say so, and all the people who hate you, hate you all of the time and tell you all of the time. And it's actually quite hard to take. So I don't know, I think, Ash, you've got, or some people have got some mean tweets because I want them to read it to me and look me in the eye and give me the mean tweet because online nobody actually looks you in the eye. You don't even Know who they are. So, Jamie, here's your chance now to be really horrible to me because you've been wanting to.
B
Raoul, I have to say, like, this doesn't bring me any pleasure at all.
A
Oh, such a liar.
B
Actually, look, you know, I did give them a quick look, and believe me, this is impromptu. I didn't know I was going to be doing this, but I had a quick look when the sheet was given to me, and I was like, 6 out of 10 in terms of how vicious they can be. So, you know, maybe Ash has got some better ones. But the first one is, I used to listen to the dude back when he was irresponsibly long on btc. He seems to have diversified into shitcoin city. The second one is, there is no second best trust. He's an underrated douchebag. That's not. I mean, tweet.
A
Underrated douchebag.
B
That's a compliment.
C
That's great.
B
Can we get some better ones?
A
So I could be. I should be a bigger douchebag, but people don't realize.
C
That's great.
A
I like that.
B
Yeah, it's like, you know, in Australia we say, you're funny. See you next Tuesday. It's actually a compliment. It sounds like a. Sounds like a mean tweet, but it's not. Now, the third one is actually quite good. I see how Raoul walks, and I don't trust him.
A
I've also got the Gavin Newsom leg thing. People hate that as well. What do you do when you've got fucking six foot, four legs and orange
B
shoelaces, I might add? Yeah, last one here is, he made money by shilling shit to everyone else.
D
Lol.
B
Last thing you ought to do is follow him.
C
Oh, zinger.
A
The 1.2 million people must be wrong.
B
Yeah, well, that's it. I mean, like, I think they're pretty average. Hopefully Ash has got some better ones.
A
Ash Bennington. Hello.
D
Very kind.
E
Okay, Raoul, here's the first one. Raoul Pal, don't fudge this up. Also, Raoul Pal proceeds to fudge this up.
A
They did not use the word fudge.
E
I've never heard you say fudge in all the years I've known, so that's completely not true.
A
Okay.
E
Oh, it's a very short one. It's the Jim Cramer of crypto. Oh, here's a nice one. You talk a lot about crypto for someone that's not very good at it. This is a nice short one as well. Rupal is a clown.
A
RuPaul. RuPaul. Yeah.
E
And finally, my Favorite. And I think this is a show name at ralgmi Disaster class.
A
Remember, the masterclass is now the Disaster class. Thank you, Ash. Thank you. It's so nice of you to read this to me. So you get a little insight what it's like to be me. Because all I'm trying to do is like, I'm smarter than anybody else. I don't know more than anybody else. But I spent. I've been in this game for a long time. So over time, you accumulate a skill and then people start to assume that you're going to be right always. And when you're not, they're like, how dare you? How dare you? I want my money back. You know, a refund on my Twitter account. It's like, it's free, dude. Why are you. But they want to do that. And it's a hard thing to actually deal with is the emotions. And I've talked about this a lot, particularly in the drinks with Raoul is the emotions are actually understandable when you step back. You can either take it personally or you can understand how fucked everybody is. And what it is is that feeling of frustration about how difficult the situation is for people and that they want to desperately get ahead. And it's kind of amplified by social media. That makes it really difficult because you see other people being successful and you're thinking, well, why did I miss that? What happened? Obviously, the hardest thing I've ever seen is Peter Schiff being successful this year or last year. But we will talk about that in a bit. But what I think I know is that patience is the key attribute, whether it's Warren Buffett, and I'm not the biggest Warren Buffett groupie, but if it's Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk or whoever it is, people who built businesses or people who've invested in those business for a long time, some of the greatest VCs, the actual answer is patience. You've got to ask yourself, when things are diverging, has anything really changed? Has that whole secular fundamental thesis changed? If not, you're being given opportunity, but you're seeing it as risk or threat. And you get this fight or flight mechanism in the body. Having been through this a lot in my career, not just in crypto, in everything, that sometimes you are dead fucking wrong. That's normally in a trade. When it is a secular trend, you are almost never wrong. When I started GMI back in 2014, I entitled the first one Debt, Deflation and Demographics. That whole process has played out my entire career. There are Periods when parts of it don't work. We had the inflation of 20, 22, 3, 4. But deflation is going to come back because we've got AI and robots and infinite knowledge being created, driving most things to zero. And that's driven by the aging population, the need to bring robots, and the robots are cheaper than humans and all of that stuff. Secular trends are your ally. They're the greatest things you can ever have. And when things diverge from secular trends like they've done recently, it's hardly. It's not exactly the worst situation in the world. It's not like we've had huge crashes or anything. Well, you have in alts versus other stuff. But generally speaking, it's just normal volatility and noise and it's just not losing your shit when this happens and having the patience. So the one thing I have noticed is that the year, you know, Christ, how long have I been talking about debasement trade? I think I brought the everything code into the world in 2021 or 22. And since then, now suddenly people realizing, oh, debasement. Remember when I first put the charts up at debasement? People are like, this is ridiculous. This is stupid. This is, you know, correlation is not causation. Now everybody's talking about the debasement trade. What has touched me so much about the debasement trade and how it's caught on is now somehow I've managed to look into my crypto wallet and realize it's been debased. I seem to have lost money and everybody else seems to be making money. And again, it really pains me that Peter Schiff is making money. But, you know, and we're now having to read Globe tweets from the gold crowd. And that's hard to take because their market did nothing for 14 years and now they're having to come up and there again, the 100 or 200% in gold and a few hundred percent in silver. You know, those are the kind of spoils that we get kind of every few years. So a quick break in your regular programming, if you're serious about your future, grab my free report called prepare for 2030. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible. And this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. But I found that Elon Musk is right in most things, annoyingly, whether you like him or not. And one of the things he's writing is the outcome is always the funniest thing. And so the outcome for us was we brought digital gold into the world and this year gold beat us.
F
We
A
said we're going to front run Wall Street. That was one of my big things. Obviously. I still believe it. This is all tongue in cheek. But. And they will buy our bags. What they've done is tokenize their shitty bags and sell them to us. And so the other one is alt season. And instead everyone chased Quantum stock. Ultra shit. Stuff that's never going to be worth anything is going to go to zero. Quantum stocks and various rare earth minerals companies. All of that. Everyone chased that instead and left our very important insert my bags. And they obviously couldn't see the truth. So it's been the most ridiculous year that all of the trades that should have happened to us never happened to us. And we can't have nice things all the time. So it appears. But that's okay. So what I found is. Well what I know is we're all responsible for our own investing, for our own futures. For our paths in life. It's our responsibility. The world doesn't work against you. You work against yourself. It's mainly psychology. And it's a really important lesson. It's too long a lesson to try and explain here. But it's true. But people want to blame others for what they do. Now unfortunately Sean Martinique's not here tonight. But I want to blame Sean. I would have brought him on stage to get him on this chair and tell him Sean is going to be. You'll see him around for a few events. Sean is the head of tokenization at Coinbase. And I want to say he had one job. He had one job was to get Wall street to buy our shitty bags. And instead what he's done is tokenize real world assets. And now we're buying their shitty bags. This is ridiculous. This is not the revolution I signed up to. So I want to blame Sean for that. Mando? Are you here? Come up here. I want to talk to you. He's at the back because he's hiding. And I'm not sure whether this accusation is true. But I'm just going to put it on you anyway. Come and sit down. My friend.
C
How are you?
A
Right. I haven't seen you. Are you. I'm good. I want the truth out of you.
G
Wow.
A
Did you buy precious metals? I did. I did. Etu Brutus.
G
I came back in the first week of January and thought. I'm not. I'm not missing you.
A
Didn't you? Yeah.
G
I bought gold. I didn't buy silver.
A
I was just guessing because I know what you're like. I'm like that cheated on us. You've cheated on us.
G
The last two weeks of December, I just like looked inwardly and, and came back in January and I just looked at a few charts and yeah, I, I did buy some gold. I did.
A
Really?
G
Are you not in, are you not in any of the trade?
A
I tried to get you in it
G
last week and you were like, no, it's, it's all gonna, it's all gonna turn and then silver's gone up another 20 since then.
A
Seven thousand all time high. I know. No, I'm not bitter. No, no, no. You're not a better trader than me. You're not. I've got principle. I'm a man principle. Am I married to my bank?
G
My print? It does feel really dirty when you get involved in other markets, particularly when you're buying them using crypto, you know,
A
and have you got a picture of Peter Schiff above your desk?
G
Now it's you and Peter Schiff each night I decide.
A
So I blame you. So there is now capital that would have been in crypto. Yeah. I mean, can we just. I want to hear a boo and a hiss. Thank you.
G
I've been buying stocks too.
A
This is not a polygamous relationship. This is.
G
I know.
A
I think you saw a little, a
G
little bit of, of you and me and now it's all gone.
A
What have you been buying in equities?
G
I've been buying Google.
A
Google and Goals.
G
That's been, that's been it.
A
It's. For me it's like Google or Tesla. Like they encapsulate everything about where the world is going.
G
I just, I like buying things as they're breaking out to all time highs because I always just think that they can just go a lot, lot, lot further. There's not many things in crypto breaking out all time highs at the moment, apart from Monero, but that was it. So we're just kind of playing the bounces. It's painful. It is so painful at the moment.
A
Yeah. But I mean the actual point about real vision is, is even though this is the crypto gathering, we talk about crypto, we spend a lot of time in crypto. There's like stuff for everybody.
G
Yeah, well, I think, I think it will come back very, very strong. But it is a weird period right
A
now where there's money to be made in stuff, right?
G
Oh, yeah. I mean, so many asset classes are hitting all time highs. You can make, you can make money.
A
But I think Tell me it's only a small weighting.
G
Yeah, I think it will be.
A
No, your weighting of your portfolio. When you're cheating on me, I want to know how badly you're cheating.
G
You don't want to know, Ralph. You don't want to know.
A
Okay, well, actually, I think we need to give Mando a shot of tequila for that. Yeah, no, it's coming.
G
Let's do it.
A
Because. Do you have one as well or. Well, I can't do it for every guest. No, you've been. This is for your sins. This is confession, right? So pretend there's a little thing here. Pretend we're both Catholics. Wow, that's a big shot. Tequila. She's from Texas. Good tequila or no, it's utter. Actually, it's not bad. I like Casa Amigos. It's good.
G
Okay. For my sins.
A
For your sins. Thank you. Thank you, brother. You've been blessed. Okay. Who else can we blame? Carl. Come on. Andreas. What's that? He's probably got X copy one of ones, but he's also very tight fisted. He's not going to sell them. He knows the value of digital R. He's not not seen him sell any of that as he's cheated on us on the crypto and sold that to buy gold. So how my day generally goes is I wake up every morning, look at the charts that Julian and I have put together and look at that divergence, the alligator jaws. And I say to Julian, julian, find me another 10 charts that prove that we're undervalued. Please find me something. And the alligator jaws never close. So I'm going to blame Julian. Where's the Swiss? American. I need him up here. Come on. So I think we can all say it's Julian's fault. It's not my fault. It's not anything else. It's entirely Julian's fault for producing a terrible set of research. It's here. It's the pink one to suit you.
D
I was gonna wear a pink shirt tonight.
A
Good.
D
I knew you'd pick on me if I did.
A
I'll pick on you anyway. So it's entirely your fault. We found. It's actually really frustrating because Julian and I find every week another whole bunch of charts. We found another great one the other day with the yen and silver and stuff. And it's like Julian is just telling us the same thing.
D
It's all there. I can't.
A
So you've got your big. Well, big talk tomorrow. You're in a small room, so I've
D
got A big talk tomorrow. I just also put something on the platform which is only like 15% of the whole prez. So we're going to do it tomorrow, which is the outlook that we presented basically at gmi, but even bigger.
A
Oh, oh, whoa. There we go. All Julian needs is attention. So just, you know, give him that. Just feedback. Look at him. Yeah.
D
Actually was disappointed that it's only 50 people in the room, but hey, this. This is kind of compensating. Yeah. So we'll do a presentation tomorrow to a smaller group and then a big live presentation, which fortunately he will not be involved in. Just myself. And it's going to be the full.
A
When are you going to be right? Because I'm blaming you as everybody else now. The Internet is now blaming you.
D
I think December 2028. I don't know why you're laughing. I mean, I'm just serious.
A
Okay, so patience, right? Yeah, it's gonna.
D
It's gonna require some patience.
A
So how do you think without ruining your thunder? How do the alligator jaws close? So just briefly talk about the alligator jaws, why they close and why this is going to be the next banana zone that we're going to be beaten by forever. People say, those fucking alligators yours never. Aside from that, no pressure, but how.
D
I mean. So the way that I think about this is there's like five or six divergences occurring. One of them is macro. One of them can be liquidity. I think liquidity is the most debated topic. Are you. What are you doing over there?
A
Twitter.
D
So, okay, don't worry. The most heated debate is, of course, liquidity for this year, where we diverge from pretty much everybody else. And then it's also the market. Right. With every other risk asset at all time highs. But something Raoul and I have talked about a lot in the past is the 1010 event in the situation that essentially broke the market, at least temporarily. But I'm going to go over all this tomorrow and what we think. But we just need a catalyst. Need a bit of good news. Because if gold is real time financial conditions, the dollars had two dump days. It goes back to 95. We push the cycle out to the end of this year, which to me is like a certainty.
A
I know.
H
And then.
A
And it's like, I mean, in all honesty, and I know it sounds dumb, but look at. I look at your charts. It's dumb.
D
This is dumb.
A
And they all. I mean, everything. And we look at it from a hundred different angles and they all say we're going to have a ridiculous Year.
D
Yeah.
A
And it's hard not to keep the
D
faith, but I think that what you always say is it's all about probabilities and tilting probabilities in your favor. Nothing in markets in certainty is a certainty, which is why they call it a risk asset, you know. But what. All we can do is charts, which is why I'm presenting 100 tomorrow.
A
Just a hundred each? Yeah.
D
Each one is about chipping away at uncertainty. So all you can do is reduce uncertainty around making a decision. And from a investment perspective, that has to come from macro liquidity sentiment, which this quantum compute thing is a sentiment falls into the sentiment bucket. I talked about that today in the piece. What else? Earnings for equities. Valuations for equities.
A
That quantum thing is, I remember really well from. It was probably before you were born. So 2022.
D
Way before.
A
Way is way before there was the whole thing, or 2021. Actually, it was definitely before you were born. It was, it was about the energy needs of crypto.
D
The same narrative.
A
Same narrative. But the quantum one is even more interesting because again with the electricity one, it was like, well, have you tried to check the electricity that Google uses? Nobody thinks about that. It's like, it's like nation state stuff. And the quantum one when you play it through. Because I got sent that Chris Wood article. Chris is a friend of mine. That got circulated around and people like, see it's all going to go to zero. Firstly, we are as likely in the same time period to mine gold from Asteroids and therefore gold goes to zero. Fact number one. Fact number two is if you are a nation state who has quantum computing, because it's only nation states will have it. Bitcoin network. Oh yeah, there are silly 2 trillion dollar industry. We're gonna, we're gonna steal your bitcoin. And who are you gonna sell it to when it's zero? Nobody. And they own bitcoin too. The Chinese do. What would you actually do if you got quantum computing? Well, it's not. The North Koreans are going to invent it. They just don't have the technology or the money. So it's going to be the Chinese or maybe somebody else. Who knows. You can hack every banking system, every social media, every technology company, every defense.
D
Sorry, where's my drink?
A
Oh, you can have the cheap Prosecco. I don't want that.
D
No, I'm not having that.
A
Oh, here we. Oh, there we go. I will have that. Because you're half American. Yeah, you're half American.
D
Is this a twist?
A
Of course it is.
D
Okay, cool. We're good.
A
There you go. Look. Oh, there you go.
D
Feels like home.
A
Oh, that's not the mic. This is when you need to get concerned about his analysis. Oh, this is not a mic. As he's talking to his bottle.
D
It smells like home.
A
Cheers. Cheers.
D
Keep going.
E
About your.
D
Your quantum stuff. It's good.
A
So the. The quantum stuff is. When you look at it through game theory, the attack vectors are not cryptocurrency. It would be the most stupid thing in the world to do. To announce to the world that you've got quantum compute that can break SHA256 encryption and you're going to steal some bitcoin. What you're actually going to do is entirely destroy nation states. So this is the last of our concerns. But anyway, it's yet another narrative, another reason why you're just wrong and we should blame you.
D
I will take it for two days. I'm here to take. Tomorrow I'm going to say what basically, MIT from a tool perspective nailed equities, credit, commodities, everything outside of bitcoin. So what I'm going to say tomorrow is if you are an equity investor, an economist or an analyst. An equity analyst. You love me and I'll take a hug. Exactly. If you're a crypto investor, you probably either want to punch me in the face or kick me in the shins, of which I don't welcome it, but I'll take it. Oh, that's better. Thank you. So it was.
A
This is his half European side. Right.
D
So now I'm switching from beer to.
A
He's got some. Some.
D
A white wine.
A
Elegant, Sim, but not much.
D
Speak for yourself.
A
So I think, Lindsay, if he could have a shot of tequila, because. What about you?
D
I'm not taking one without you.
A
I'll have one as well, but I'm still blaming you. And this is the confession, right? I'm your priest and you've confessed for ruining our lives.
D
Yes, yes, I will confess.
A
So the short. This is. How ridiculous. Oh, there we go. Thank you. This is my lovely blonde accomplice, Blondie.
D
What was that? Yeah. One for everyone.
A
You'll find out shortly. If you want to ask a question, you're going to get a shot of tequila because I'm not the only one drinking here. And I'm. You guys are the monkeys in the zoo and you're going to drink. And if you don't drink, you'll have to eat a fistful of Doritos. Cheers, my friend.
D
Due 2026.
A
To blaming Julian.
D
To blaming Julian. Let's do it. You know, but this is not your stage. Yeah, it is. You know, what about. What about Chris? Can we. Can we blame Chris?
C
No.
A
No, you're to blame.
D
No, me. Okay, I'll take it.
A
All right. You've got big hair. It's actually beautiful. It's shorter than it was, but it's. It's sometimes.
D
No, but it's.
A
It's.
D
It's mood dependent.
A
Don't settle down here.
D
No, I'm still sitting down.
A
Look at him. He's an attention.
D
It's mood dependent.
A
Shannon, can you get him off the stage?
D
The higher the hair, the happier I am. So. Because I had to see you, it's.
A
I know, it's.
D
Calm down.
A
They're nice shoes. Anyway, off you go. All right. So blame Julian. Blame Sean Martinique from Coinbase. Definitely blame Mando because he cheated on us. They're all cheating on us. Talking of cheating, the Northern Europeans are bad. The free love, you know, all of this stuff that happens. And the Danes are particularly bad. I want to blame two Danish people for cheating on us. So I want to bring Mikkel and Andreas up. There's no space. You can sit on each other's laps.
H
Should I break this foot?
A
Half? Don't. Don't pretend you're a Viking. You're not. There we go.
H
So do we need to share this one?
A
Yeah, you'll need to share first. I'm going to go first. I'm going to Mickle. So we were all fine. The world was okay until you go. Well, we got this piece of land. Nobody really you. Everything up Greenland, nobody cares. It's not even green.
C
We don't sort of white.
A
We don't care.
C
No, it was. We gone to the airport last. Last night here. We were really afraid that we weren't going to be let into the country. You know, we Danish here and you shouldn't be.
A
You're to blame.
C
Yeah, Andreas has been here a lot. He swept right through migrations. I was held back a little bit and I thought, okay, this is it. He was looking at me like, what are your intentions here, et cetera? So I thought, oh, nothing about Greenland. I'm just going to a conference and they look at me like, are you going to start a Somali daycare? No, no, no, no, no. Then. Then I was let in.
A
So
C
that was all it took.
A
So why. What the fuck is Greenland about? And what. I'll come on to Andreas fault in this, but I'm going to blame you because you're the geopolitics. Guy, you're the Dane.
C
Yeah.
A
You've got this island that you don't care about, you've never been to. You don't give them any money. Really.
C
It's a money dump for us.
A
Yeah. And now suddenly everybody wants it, and you're like, well, you can't have it, and you don't even want it. No, no. We want our bags to go down.
H
I'll have to say something here. I did put out a front page in the biggest newspaper in Denmark, like, nine months ago.
A
There's only three. And the front page was three readers.
H
Yes, of course. But anyway, I said, sell that piece of shit,
A
and I Mickle.
H
And I kind of regretted saying that. So I've kept my mouth shut on that topic since.
A
Really? Because it's really rare that you're outspoken. Yeah. Because you're not an independent thinker. You don't. You know, it's really rare. So, okay. Why are you destroying our bags? That's. It's your fault.
C
It's over.
A
You're the geopolitical guy. Your fault.
C
It's a good thing it's over now. Well, we were in flight. Everything got fixed. Now we're on to something else. That's a good thing about Donald Trump. So now it's something else.
A
But what was the.
C
What.
A
What's going on? Are they gonna. You're gonna sell it to them?
C
No, no. We were never gonna sell it because there's this thing called people living there, and they didn't want to join the
A
U.S. so there's 11 people who don't think they're Danish live there.
C
But that's. That. That's the principle. We. We weren't going to sell that, no matter the price. Some of the prices were getting to a point where we were considering it, but. But not high enough. And now we're probably going to end up getting nothing for it. So that's the way it goes.
A
So what I'm angry about and what I blame you for is you created uncertainty. The Danes have no place in the world to create uncertainty. You create great restaurants like Noma. People want to go to Denmark because it's supposed to be lovely, and then you. Everything up for no reason. Yeah.
C
In England as well. Yeah. Back in the day, I've.
A
I've gotten out of England. I have nothing to do with that place.
C
No, no, no. But I mean, this whole point about having. Having islands in the Western hemisphere, it's weird. Grant Cayman could be next for the
A
US But a serious question. How do you think this Resolves, because you spent. You very seriously think about this stuff. How does it resolve?
C
I think Donald Trump realized that the costs not in terms of dollars, because that could be fixed, he could print that, but the geopolitical costs were too high. Perhaps Scott Besson got involved in it and he realized, okay, there are bigger fish to fry. And that's what brings me a lot of hope for. From what happened yesterday.
A
I missed most of what happened yesterday, but the perspective that I have is as long as Greenland is available to the US for both military and for rare earths, that's what they want.
C
And it has been for 75 years. So. So there's. There shouldn't be any problems. I think it was a vanity thing. I think it was. There are some legitimate strategic interests there.
A
What was the outcome yesterday, then?
C
The outcome was essentially that Donald Trump made a framework deal with the head of NATO, general secretary of NATO, Martin Green. The U.S. is going to acquire some pieces of land, like small plots of land where they're going to have military bases, going to invest some stuff in military, going to take up some of the bill from Denmark on paying for Greenland. We welcome that. We spend a lot of our tax money up there, so all good for us, but. And then they're going to move on to other things as is.
A
So I have a framework that I started, look at the world called the universal code, which almost everything that is happening geopolitically, economically, financially, is all about driving towards increased intelligence. Right. It's like everything is driving this way. It's the biggest battle of all time is AGI to ASI and who owns it and how and all of that. And Greenland plays an important role to secure supply chains.
C
It could. I'm still a little bit skeptical, to be honest.
A
Why?
C
Because mining up there, it's. It's fucking cold. Nobody lives there. There's no workforce. You're gonna have to ship that all in. There's no roads. The people up there, the ones that are there, they don't want anything done up there. They don't want to work. To be honest, I'm very, very skeptical. But. But the stuff is there.
A
They can.
C
Stuff is there, but they could bring
A
in Mexican work and they can't do that.
C
That would have to be done. You can ask the Greenlanders to mean, to mine it. That's not going to happen. We've tried that for 75 years in Denmark. That's not going to happen.
A
Yeah, but Denmark doesn't have the look. There's a. There's a real need for these.
H
Denmark doesn't have what. Please finish the sentence.
C
Public debt.
A
We'll start with good wine.
H
Sure.
A
Denmark doesn't have the capital required to do what's required. Right. And I think it's something similar to Venezuela, which is at the end of it. There is a need to keep energy costs low because the growth multiplier and the, the equation that I look at
C
is
A
energy units of energy per unit of intelligence output. And the lower you get energy costs, the more you control.
C
I mean, it's absolutely fair. We need you as investment. We need outside investment to, to, to develop things in Greenland. But there were, there were no obstacles to that. I mean, Denmark was open to that before this. I understand that the US needed to secure sort of the tail risk of the scenario, which was Greenland. The people up there, they had flirted with becoming an independent state and they had flirted. They, they imagined that when they went independent, they could go to Beijing to get an offer. They could go to Moscow to get an offer. Of course the US wasn't going to tolerate that. I understand that completely, that that's at the core of what this is all about. And I think they've pretty much made that made that message clear. And then they've demonstrated that they have. The Greenlanders have learned that there's one thing they hate more than, than Danes, it's Americans. So they've learned as much.
A
So I'm still blaming you.
H
I just want to share a piece of anecdotal evidence from this morning, but
A
I've got a lot of blame to put.
H
Yeah, yeah, sure, sure, sure. But I, I woke up and then I read my Bloomberg terminal and the first story I saw just flexing was about, was about the company called Critical Metals Corporation.
A
Okay. This is my. Hold on.
C
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
H
And they made a deal with the company in Saudi Arabia to mine stuff in Greenland. It's a US company, by the way.
A
Yeah.
H
This ship to Saudi Arabia.
A
Your confession. Water.
H
Thank you. And sell it.
A
I'm not confessing.
H
Pentagon.
A
I'm not to blame. I am not to blame. I'm perfect.
H
So I thought it was our island, but apparently it's not.
A
Right.
H
And a US company, Mine. Sell it, sells it to Saudi Arabia and sells it back to the US and we're not even involved in than the eu. That's how typical it is.
A
That's how we like it.
C
We just own stuff.
A
So what I need to blame you for.
C
Yeah.
A
Is you've cheated on us again. You've.
H
That's been an ongoing Topic. I think.
A
Yeah, you should have been chilling my bags and instead you found other altcoins which were rare earths and other stuff and made money out of them. How fucking dare you. Yeah, that was not putting money into my outrageous city bags and you made money out of them. It's really annoying.
H
I've even brought my gold and silver on stage to annoy you.
A
I'm actually wearing gold as well. Yeah, that. You know, that's not acceptable. We're at the crypto gathering and you've made money for people in other stuff and I talked to Amanda about. This is not. It's not right. You shouldn't be doing that.
H
But I. I just followed Julian's framework in all other asset classes than crypto last year.
A
That's how I did it. Oh, that hurts. That hurt. We have to. My lovely blonde accomplice is telling me I need to throw you off stage. So thank you very much. Thank you for your confessional. You ruined it for everybody. You've cheated on us. Thank you.
C
Skull.
A
Skull. Okay. Get off stage. We've had enough of you. Okay, so now is your questions. The rules are you come up here, you have to do a shot of tequila to ask the question. You do it first, then ask the question, then you know how it feels for me to entertain you guys while drinking tequila, drinking champagne, beer, and everything else. Oh, they don't come up here now. I think it's better they come up and ask the question to make it even more like it feels for me. If you don't drink, you're going to eat a fistful of Cool Ranch Doritos. Or what's the other ones? Nacho cheese? There are zero natural ingredients. It's guaranteed to give you cancer. Corn is natural. Not really. I mean, humans can't even digest corn. It's awful. It's still natural. Okay, so questions come up to the front. You come up to the front. You're gonna have to. Good man. Are you coming up on stage there?
F
I thought you were supposed to.
A
Well, you can do whatever you want.
F
It seemed more.
A
It's chaos here. Drinks with Ral. Nobody's got a clue what's going on. Least of all me. I'm calling.
C
I'm calling.
F
I'm Chris from Toronto.
A
Toronto, Right.
F
Building on some of the conversations you just had up here, my understanding is a core part of your everything code thesis is diversity is dead.
A
Yeah.
F
And yet a lot of people are talking about metals.
A
Yeah. Equities.
F
Other things. Is that a blip because of the alligator jaws? Or I'd love to hear an update on your thoughts on that, given what's going on in the markets.
A
Really good question. We're going to have to test the thesis and the thesis is, is over time that that crypto and technology will outperform every other asset class. So we have the cyclical elements that we'll always see over periods of time, like emerging market stocks outperforming or oil outperforms for a period of time. Nat Gas is doing it now, that kind of stuff. Question is, is on the time horizon that I'm talking about, which is like five, ten years when you look at the points on the board. Which one? And I wrote, I don't know if you read that piece, the GMI annual
F
thing I started on the plane right now.
A
Sorry. It's a long and complicated piece. There's a piece in that which is called the universal. It's actually not called the universe code. It's called everything is compute. But it's about the universal code. And within that I've somewhat stuck my neck out in deciding how the universe works. It's not my place to do this, but I think I'm actually onto something that is directionally, extremely right. And the entire purpose of the universe is to. Is to turn units of energy into units of intelligence. If that is the case. Intelligence always wins. So intelligent networks, AI, all of this stuff is upstream of everything else. So I honestly think that it would be a very strange world where none of this outperformed over time. Gold has had a 14 year or whatever it was 12 year suppressed market and then it took off and it's rerated. But if you take before that period crypto or tech stocks, it still outperforms because gold doesn't have network effects. It doesn't have a lot of this stuff. So yeah, I think that's why the framework that Andreas has and Julian has is useful because it gives us like I wrote the article about commodities in Pro Macro. They'll define it's what time horizon. What we're trying to do here for me is the easiest game is find the secular trend. Look at the price of oil. It does this. Yeah. In a bit of an uptrend because of debasement of currency. But when you look at technology, it does this and crypto does this. So it makes it so much easier. So if something has not changed with the underlying thesis, then the answer is just Buy More. That makes sense.
F
It does, yes.
D
Thank you.
A
Okay, next question. Tequila shop. You don't have to come on stage you want to. Everybody want. Everyone's like, Julian, they just like, oh, look at me. You're not shy. You need to put your mic.
I
Okay, so my question is, I've employed people for some years and recruitment is difficult.
A
Bit closer.
I
Recruitment is really hard and getting people into industries is really difficult.
A
What you do, you're in the recruitment industry?
I
No, I was in Kerr. So employ staff. So I noticed. I talked to some friends. He's a butcher. He can't get butchers into the industry. You can't get drivers. And there's all this, everything's going south, going wrong. So I've brought my niece with me, Sophie, who's 22 to here.
A
She's part of Real Vision Metarelia.
I
Yeah. So my question is, how do we get younger people into crypto? How do we get younger people into real vision? Because that's the key to our longevity, isn't it?
A
Yeah, it is. We're working really hard. The whole new platform. So it's really interesting. My generation of people would, would approach financial markets by. I need to learn everything. I want to know how investing works, I want to know how people think. Then I'm trying to figure it out and then I'll do things. The younger generation comes from computer gaming, which is, I'll try this, I die, I try this, I die, I try this, I get further, then I die, then I. And so their entire thesis is show me the trade, show me what it is. And that's the whole new Real Vision platform is to surface these ideas for faster. And there's been unbelievable returns from people we don't know, Joe Bland and all these people on the platform. Unbelievable returns because the intelligence of the hive mind. And then what happens is you make money or lose money and you start to learn.
I
Sure.
A
And in life. Yeah, in life in general.
I
Yeah.
A
But we're trying to change Real Vision to not be this, not change it, but add to it. So it's not just this heavy idea of you must learn, you must understand. Stan Druckenmiller. You must. The crowd has decided that this is the idea. Try that, see how it works, talk to people about it, learn about it, build a community around it. And so a 22 year old will find that much easier because communities talking about it, doing it together is much different than how older people did it. And a 22 year old now doesn't know how difficult their future is in terms of buying a house or anything else, because they're not thinking about it. Only until you get to your 30s and then into your 40s, you realize, oh, this is. I'm. My future is fucked. I need to unfuck it. So in your 20s, you have the opportunity to do this, to learn about making money off the money you earn. Because it's a multiplier. Because wages don't go up a lot.
I
It's not taught in school, is it?
A
It's not taught in school. And if you think of it as a multiplier. So you get your wage and if you can take some of your wage and multiply it, your actual worth goes up and then you can afford other things because wages are not going to go up a lot. In a world of AI and robots, there are areas that it will, and I've talked about this is to, to be the only thing we've got in a world of AI that AI doesn't have. It's not intelligence, it's not feelings, it's not any of this stuff. It's just, it's being human and humans like humans and so we can make, we can make a living helping other humans be part of communities and human stuff.
I
Okay, thank you.
A
Okay, thank you.
I
Cheers.
A
Cheers. Okay, next question. Shot. If you're questioning, it's not. It's like you don't drink. Okay, there we go.
I
Actually,
A
Hello.
J
Okay. Flavors? Cheese or red?
A
It's. It's awful or terrible? It's. It's death. It's death in five years or death in seven years. You'd make your choice.
J
I take the seven.
A
The seven year death.
J
Something incredible may happen in two years. I don't know.
A
And.
J
Oh, right now.
A
Yeah. There's some water next to you to digest them. You look like somebody who doesn't eat a lot of Doritos.
J
I do not.
A
This is the punishment. Oh, God.
J
You have to make it worth it.
A
I'll try. I thought it was a fistful of Doritos.
J
It's not on me. I'm dying, guys. I'm dying by the Dorito right now. Okay, so you said.
A
So where are you from, by the way?
J
Sorry, I'm V. CEO of World of Women.
A
Wow. Okay.
J
Thank you guys. Thank you. With a mouth. With a mouth full of Dorito right now.
A
Very elegant.
J
Right? I have to level up the standards right here. So you said recently about NFTs that it is the single best long term store of wealth.
A
Yes.
J
So tell me, what is your thoughts or what are your thoughts about NFTs today and its future?
A
So I'm wildly bullish, stupidly Preposterously bullish about NFTs because digital artifacts that tell cultural stories of this moment in time. And this is one of the most extraordinary, may even be the most extraordinary moment in time that humanity will ever go through. And we're there on the Internet every day and we create culture and culture creates art. It could be music, it could be other stuff, but it's not. There's not a lot of music about this, but it's being told by artists every day. The other thing that's happening in the world of women, for example, is community. I talked about the humanness of the world. And if we can't, we only have one purpose, is to be humans, because nothing else. All of the stuff we all made money from being in, finance, investing, consulting, accountants, lawyers, all a zero. So community is everything. And what NFTs are, there's several levels. One is the art side, which I'm really interested in, particularly on the culture side, is telling stories about the culture of these times on the Internet. Beeple is a great example. Die with the Most Likes X Copy. Then we have the people pioneering the singularity where we merge with the machines. Kim Assendorf, people like that, Eric Snowfro, people who are using AI and doing stuff. And then there's like World of Women Punks. You know, I would have been at the punks eventually, but we couldn't go because obviously you guys are all here, which is culture. And community online is also something important. And I know you guys will have gone through the ups and downs of this all, but don't give up because it's really important to show people that culture and community has a value. And, you know, there's some IP things, you know, Sergio's working really hard on me bits. There's pudgy penguins, there's doodles, there's a whole bunch of these that are trying the IP route. But World of Women was a community route and it's really important.
J
I agree, I agree on the. On the being human and wanting to connect. I think that's what we all thriving for, right? Like the human connection and the emotional bond you can have with someone. And NFT is really good at that, creating those communities. My next question then will be. You mentioned, you know, you mentioned utility and you mentioned community in terms of again, creating that bond. And I was thinking, I thought about something and I just forgot.
A
But utility doesn't matter. The utility is the community, the culture.
J
That's what I was thinking about. You mentioned the culture is very important. Do you think, though, giving the state of NFTs right now and obviously has a lot to do with market. Right. The market is not great right now, but do you think culture itself can sustain the long path of NFTs?
A
Yes, for those NFTs to do that. NFT is just a technology. So for digital art, we've seen super high prices trading. We're seeing a massive renaissance of digital art. We haven't seen it in most of the kind of cultural community stuff punks have done well, but not outperformed yet. The point being is it takes time. Takes time to build culture, takes time to build community. And most important of all, it takes time to build trust.
J
But I also feel like if you only build around culture, then you only relevant at one point in time because
A
the culture can be the culture of your community and its values and that can adapt.
J
Yeah, right. But you have to make sure you evolve the culture. It's not stagnant. Right.
A
Culture is never static. It's never static. So what's culturally relevant today will not be culturally relevant tomorrow. Some things persist. The things that persist have ultimate value. Warhol persisted from the 60s, the 70s, the 80s, the 90s, 2000s to now. It's persisted in cultural value. Many artists at that time didn't. And that's okay. Okay, I need to take other questions,
J
but thank you so much.
A
Okay, there's a question over there. I'm sorry, we're running out of time. I'm being told, like I'm giving the whole. That's Paul there saying, he's crawling here on the floor saying, hey, if you're watching this, subscribe to the YouTube channel. Even better, realvision.com you'll get some. What I've tried to show you is the diversity of opinion on Real Vision, that it's not about me, it's about all of the people on it. Go to realvision.com join and join and you'll get a lot more than this. Or the YouTube channel, all that stuff. It's really important you guys in the room know it obviously. And yeah, I know you get frustrated. I have to plug this. But it's important because we, we've got amazing content. We're changing people's lives, we're helping people to understand it. And my job is not to look after you lot. My job is to look after, try and bring as many people along the journey as possible. And it's really important mission for me. So the more you guys help us bring people to Real Vision, the more it helps more people, even if they come for free. It's not about the money it's about we are at a free extraordinary moment in time. People's lives, everyone's feeling left behind. That the answers are on real vision. The opportunity set is there. There's no reason to leave people behind. So we need to bring as many people as possible. And it doesn't have to be all crypto. It's not about that. Real vision is not about crypto. It's about the opportunities that our lives present by being surrounded by an amazing community and amazing people. No pressure on you, but you know, I'm not drinking another shot, but cheers. Name and where you're from?
K
Hi, my name is Ryan. I live in San Diego right now.
A
Used to be from Ryan. Such an American name. It's like Chad Ryan. Missing names Ryan. Yeah.
K
First of all thanks for all you do. You inspire me.
A
Even listening to you should be blaming me.
K
Speaking about blaming that has to my. I mean I think it's less about blaming more maybe about admitting that there's a lot of overlap between these communities.
A
Yeah.
K
Like crypto and gold. And my question is how do you know what to commit to and which ones are insurance as. As things come together? Because we are overlapping a lot in these right now and doing pretty well in both.
A
Yeah, that's a really good question. I've been involved in all of those trades that those insurance, the debasement, the how do I just do the limited friction way of just making sure it works out generally over time. Gold is not really outperformed. Debasement has done recently but of course it shouldn't do because its job is to be the neutral world currency to maintain a store of value.
K
It's still going.
A
Yeah. But it does that very well. So it's probably giving us a signal that there's a change happening that Julian talked about it for financial conditions and stuff like that. What I do my personal self and people get confused by this. I'm not recommending what I do. I have income streams, multiple income streams. I have savings, I have houses. So I can take risk with my risk capital. And in which case I think crypto is the dominant bet over time. Maybe technology but given the same set of circumstances, the same conditions we have now, but different set of circumstances, more risk averse, whatever. I would say yes, you should have some gold. Yes, you should have some emerging market stocks. Yes, you should have crypto. Yes, you should have the NASDAQ amongst those. Even if you took the emerging market stocks but gold, crypto, nasdaq, you're fine now you'll get Drawdowns when liquidity leaves. Because everything is affected by liquidity. Issue is bonds don't offset it anymore. They used to. The whole I didn't interview with Alex Goreich will be out on soon. That whole kind of trade of owning bonds and equities doesn't work anymore. So we don't really have a downside buffer. But even though I say I'm 100% committed to crypto, it's not what I'm advising everyone to do. It's like what I'm advising people to do is we have an 8% debasement rate plus a 3% inflation rate. It's 11%. There are some assets all guaranteed to do that. Gold will do it over time. The S&P 500 will do it over time. NASDAQ will beat it over time. Crypto will beat it over time. Everything else is trading. That's how I think about it. Does that help?
D
Yeah. Thank you.
A
Thank you so much. I could do this for hours, actually, because I love. I love doing this stuff. But that's the end of the performing monkey. Next time I'll have the fez hat and the tambourine. And I can do that. I've drunk shots of tequila, Prosecco. I didn't actually touch the Bud Light, which is good for me. In fact, I'm going to eat a Dorito on camera. I fucking hate these things. Things. So I'm going to just as a closeout for everybody. I can't even read the small print. So if you think of potato chips, right, they are potato, olive oil and salt. Let's go. Corn, vegetable oil, Corn canola, soybean and or sunflower oil. Corn maltodextrin. Less than 2% of cheddar cheese. Milk cheese cultures. Salt enzymes. Salt whey, monosodium glutamate, buttermilk, Romano cheese, milk, cheese culture, salt enzymes, whey, protein concentrate, onion powder, potassium salt, Corn flour. Natural and artificial ingredient. Natural and artificial flavors. Dextrose, tomato powder, Lecter. Literally 72 ingredients. Cheers. All right, take care, everyone. Enjoy the crypto gathering. You obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end. But listen, don't forget to go to realvision.com join and grab a free membership. It's an incredible community packed with alpha great investment ideas and the research that you need to help you unfuck your future. So get started. Now, go to realvision.com forward/join.
L
Ever wanted to explore the world of online trading but haven't dared try? The futures market is more active now. Than ever and Plus500 futures is the perfect place to start. Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments S&P 500, NASDAQ, Bitcoin, gas and much more. Explore equity indices, energy, metals, forex, crypto and beyond with a simple and intuitive platform. You can trade from anywhere right from your phone deposit with a minimum of $100 and experience the fast accessible futures trading you've been waiting for. See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade in just two clicks once your account is open. Not sure if you're ready? Not a problem. Plus500 gives you an unlimited risk free demo account with charts and analytic tools for you to practice on. With over 20 years of experience, Plus500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit us at+500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify. Plus 500 it's trading with a plus.
Real Vision Podcast Network – January 23, 2026
Theme:
In this "Drinks with Raoul" live episode from Miami, Raoul Pal brings together the Real Vision community for an irreverent but revealing deep-dive into the macro, crypto, and technology landscape as we navigate what he calls the "Exponential Age." Raoul is joined by friends and special guests for candid conversations around investment missteps, the realities of community in crypto, cycles of psychological euphoria and despair, and the big geopolitical and technological themes shaping the next decade. The session is known for its informal, interactive (and tequila-fueled) format, aiming to unify, entertain, and inform the global Real Vision audience.
[03:50–07:30]
[07:30–13:00]
"Mean Tweets" Segment:
Several guests read out critical tweets directed at Raoul, with a mix of brutal honesty and banter.
Raoul reflects on public criticism:
"People start to assume that you're going to be right always. And when you're not, they're like, how dare you? …It's a hard thing to actually deal with is the emotions."
Patience is the key investing attribute:
Secular trends define everything; cycles and volatility are to be expected. Raoul hammers home that patience trumps impulsiveness in building wealth—"the actual answer is patience… When things diverge from secular trends… you’re being given opportunity, but you're seeing it as risk or threat." (13:50)
[13:50–19:00]
[19:22–23:00]
[24:28–33:00]
Julian (Raoul’s research partner) is “blamed” for producing charts that aren’t yet matched by market moves ("alligator jaws" divergences).
Patience, catalysts, and liquidity:
Julian: "We just need a catalyst. Need a bit of good news. Because if gold is real time financial conditions…the cycle is being pushed out." (26:29)
On market uncertainty:
-"All you can do is reduce uncertainty around making a decision…from a investment perspective, that has to come from macro, liquidity, sentiment…" (28:20)
Quantum computing fears and game theory:
Raoul dismisses crypto doomsday via quantum computing—major powers wouldn’t blow their secret on breaking SHA-256 just to steal Bitcoin; it would threaten everything digital, first and foremost.
[35:07–44:54]
[46:48–64:00]
Q: Is the thesis that "diversity is dead" challenged by current outperformance in metals and equities?
Q: How to get younger people into crypto/Real Vision?
Q (J, World of Women CEO): Thoughts on NFTs as store of value and culture?
Q (Ryan, San Diego): How to prioritize commitment in overlapping trades—crypto, gold, equities?