Rational Security — “The Adverse Possession” Edition

Podcast: Rational Security (The Lawfare Institute)
Date: December 10, 2025
Hosts: Scott R. Anderson (B), Tyler McBrien (C), Alex Zerdin (D)
Main Theme:
A deep-dive into the year since Bashar al-Assad’s ouster and Syria’s ongoing transition, the Trump administration’s new National Security Strategy, and JPMorgan’s $1.5 trillion national security investment initiative. The crew interrogates U.S. policy shifts, international legitimacy, economic and regional complexities in Syria, American grand strategy (or lack thereof), and the emergent role of major private sector players in U.S. security.

Episode Overview

This episode orbits three major topics:

1. Syria’s Post-Assad Transitions: How Syria has changed since Assad's departure one year ago, the mix of progress and daunting challenges, and U.S. policy’s effect on the transition.
2. Trump’s National Security Strategy: An unusually-formatted and ideologically loaded strategy document, with implications for U.S. global posture, alliances, and domestic priorities.
3. Private Sector National Security Initiatives: JPMorgan's enormous national security-focused investment initiative, its political implications, and the shifting role of industry in security policy.

1. One Year After Assad: Syria’s Tumultuous Transition

(Segment start: 03:11)

Key Points:

• Unexpected Speed & Success of Transition

  • Assad ousted one year ago, a scenario “no one saw…coming” ([06:54], D).
  • Transition to new leadership, Ahmed Al Shara (formerly of HTS, ex-terrorist, now White House guest), labeled “remarkable” and “mind-blowing” ([06:54], D; [06:00], B).
  • U.S. shifted rapidly from sanctioning Syria to rapidly legitimizing new actors.
  • Notable quote:
    “We have had this incredible sea change of policy and changes in how the US Government approaches the country of Syria.” ([07:16], D)

• Sanctions, Economic Measures, and Domestic Challenges

  • Trump’s May 13 Riyadh speech shifted U.S. policy, triggering agencies to coordinate lifting sanctions ([08:19], D).
  • Major steps: Executive Order 14312 ended national emergencies driving old sanctions; HTS delisted as a terrorist group.
  • Legacy burdens: Caesar Act’s harsh secondary sanctions still in place, but possible rescission in current NDAA ([10:19], D).
  • Persisting risks: Economic growth remains stunted post-civil war, infrastructure is in dire need, and there are signs of kleptocracy consolidated under new ruling family ([13:27], D).
  • Positive signals: IMF, World Bank, and private companies (Visa, Mastercard, Binance) tentatively investing ([13:57], D).

• Regional Complications:

  • Israel: Pushed aggressively into Syria post-Assad, occupying parts of southern Syria akin to a “new Golan Heights” ([15:10], B). Israel justifies its military presence as protection for the Syrian Druze minority but is fundamentally distrustful of the new regime.
  • Turkey & SDF: Turkey uncomfortable with SDF (Kurdish-led group) autonomy, fearing spillover for its own Kurdish tensions. Ongoing “difficult negotiations” about confederation. U.S. troop reduction in the region creates further unpredictability ([20:51], B).
  • Iraq: Staying “pro-stability,” not deeply involved in Syrian developments ([22:13], B).

• U.S. Domestic Political Dynamics:

  • Trump’s personal clout enabled rapid, radical policy change. Historically, both parties have opposed any policy that might “embolden terrorist groups,” but Trump’s sway muted opposition for now ([23:12], B).
  • “Trump has a short memory…if he sees a financial incentive there for some sort of development, then he’s willing to cast aside other ideological considerations.” ([24:25], C)
  • Open question how sustainable this support is, given Trump’s recent domestic distractions ([25:01], C; [25:46], D).

• Transitional Justice and Accountability:

  • Renewed calls for justice for Assad-era crimes, with new troves of documentation surfacing on Syrian torture and detention abuses ([28:23], C).
  • “I think transitional justice also needs to be there. True accountability in Syria seems to be necessary for the country to move on.” ([28:39], C)

• Nation-Building: “The Easy Part Is Over”

  • Lifting sanctions was the easy step; true rebuilding is orders of magnitude harder and costlier.
  • Aid agencies underfunded and under-resourced; U.S. has “substantially trimmed their toolkit” for nation-building ([29:28], B).
  • Prospects for international support (Europe, Gulf states, UN), but donor priorities are stretched thin, especially with Gaza, Sudan, Ukraine also desperate for aid ([31:19], D).
  • World Bank estimates at least $240B needed for Syrian reconstruction—about 10x Syria’s current GDP ([31:19], D).
  • “It’s amazing. It’s something I think everybody has to hope for the best for Syrians who’ve been through so much. But it’s not an easy road even from here.” ([35:00], B)

Notable Quotes:

• “The transition over the past year is nothing short of remarkable…I think while this optimism exists, I do have some areas of skepticism, both on the economic as well as the political and social fronts.” — Alex ([06:54], D)
• “President Trump, I think…has a tremendous amount of political power and capital, especially in foreign policy that we’ve seen this year that he deployed on Syria.” — Alex ([25:46], D)
• “I’m just really concerned about this prioritization question…if we’re speaking of key constituencies, alternatives such as the European Union…their priorities are stretched incredibly thin.” — Alex ([31:19], D)

2. Trump’s National Security Strategy: “Weird in Both Content and Form”

(Segment start: 37:16)

Key Points:

• Unorthodox Formatting & Content

  • Document opens with philosophical musings and rhetorical questions, before pivoting to actual policy ([38:39], C).
  • “It starts with these questions of what is…almost expected it to start like ‘Merriam Webster’s Dictionary defines strategy as…’” — Tyler ([38:39], C)
  • Surprising both in style and in how openly it centers “border security” as the top national security priority.

• Ideological Markers

  • Frequent language about “civilizational self-confidence” and fear of “civilizational collapse,” viewed as cribbing from “great replacement” and blood-and-soil worldviews ([40:14], C).
  • “…there’s this great replacement theory inflected language of civilizational collapse and the threat that migration has on civilizational collapse and tying that to national security. It gets into this sort of blood and soil territory that I don’t feel great about…” ([40:14], C)

• Economic Statecraft

  • Economics deeply “injected throughout” the document—especially around China, trade, technology ([41:20], D).
  • The administration’s stated strategy and actual policies may diverge significantly—e.g., simultaneously talking up countering China while greenlighting high-tech sales ([41:43], D).
  • “How much weight to put into the document?” is an open question; it could simply be “an answering the mail exercise” ([43:35], D).

• Who Wrote This Thing?

  • Unlike the Biden strategy (which bore Jake Sullivan’s signature), Trump’s is an “odd coterie of authors,” seemingly a consensus document padded to reach certain internal consensus rather than a coherent worldview ([44:02]–[50:45], B; [49:13], C).
  • Notably omits language central to recent U.S. strategy: “major power competition” isn’t mentioned once.
  • Instead, the “regional balance of power” is foregrounded, conceptually akin to spheres of influence—a sharp break from past U.S. rhetoric about a rules-based international order ([44:02], B).

• Contradictions Abound

  • European section dwells on Europe’s supposed lack of “civilizational self-confidence,” suggesting a shift toward privileging right-wing European parties ([46:10], B).
  • U.S. seen as both hobbled by recent history and at the same time, the world’s strongest power—a mix of “chest-thumping” and “acknowledgement that we’re not in the unipolar moment anymore” ([51:04], C).

Notable Quotes:

• “This completely moves away from [major power competition], and that’s really telling you about a really different worldview than what has steered U.S. policy for the last several years.” — Scott ([46:59], B)
• “China watchers were clearly not really foregrounded in the drafting of this, including someone like an Elbridge Colby…almost more interesting to ask who didn’t write this, who’s seemingly maybe on the outs ideologically within Trump’s inner circle.” — Tyler ([49:13], C)
• “It’s such an odd document…the chapters just don’t line up. So it is like a weird coterie of authors…” — Scott ([50:45], B)

3. JPMorgan’s $1.5 Trillion National Security Investment Push

(Segment start: 51:55)

Key Points:

• Details of the Initiative

  • In October, JPMorgan and CEO Jamie Dimon announced a ten-year, $1.5 trillion investment initiative focused on U.S. national security and economic resilience—including $10B of their own capital for direct equity ([53:47], D).
  • Board includes power brokers: Jeff Bezos, Condoleezza Rice, Robert Gates, Paul Ryan, a Berkshire Hathaway alum—“a who’s who of American capitalism and public policy” ([54:23], D).

• Timing and Strategy

  • Move aligns neatly with Trump administration’s “America First” domestic industrial revitalization, but Dimon claims it’s strictly about “institutional interest” not currying favor ([53:12], B).
  • May be an attempt to stake out an independent, centrist, internationalist alternative to Trumpist economic nationalism ([56:51], B).
  • “They’re putting down a marker saying, ‘We’re already committing to this general proposition…consistent again with the new national security strategy…But the general gist of what the Trump administration has been doing in terms of domestic investment…’” — Alex ([60:07], D)

• Potential Implications

  • Could be “a significant development” as a private sector counterweight to MAGA-adjacent policy centers and a platform for less radical, more orthodox right-of-center, internationalist influence ([56:51], B; [60:07], D).
  • Also gives JPMorgan flexibility: if pressured by government, they can point to existing commitments to deflect or channel requests ([60:07], D).

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• “It’s amazing. It’s something I think everybody has to hope for the best for Syrians who’ve been through so much. But it’s not an easy road even from here…” — Scott ([35:00], B)
• “The overarching puzzle…is how much weight to actually put into the document [the NSS]. How useful is this going to be as a roadmap…?” — Alex ([41:20], D)
• “It’s a confusing mix…acknowledgement that we’re not in the unipolar moment anymore…and yet…most powerful military kind of language, which are inherently at odds.” — Tyler ([51:08], C)
• “Could be a really influential development…the people he’s putting on this board, they’re not Trump people…a more conventional alternative center of influence in this space.” — Scott ([56:51], B)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Assad’s Ouster & Transition in Syria: [03:11] – [36:13]
• Trump’s National Security Strategy: [37:16] – [51:55]
• JPMorgan Security Initiative: [51:55] – [62:20]
• Object Lessons (Book, Holiday Movies, Commodity Trading): [62:20] – [67:11]

Additional “Object Lessons”

Recommendations (Light-Hearted Closing):

• Book: Lost: Photographing the Last Days of Our Architectural Treasures ([62:20], C)
• Holiday Movies: A Merry Little Xmas (with Alicia Silverstone) and Jingle Bell Heist ([63:37], B)
• Industry/History Book: The World for Sale: Money, Power, and the Traders Who Barter the Earth's Resources ([65:35], D)

Takeaways

• The Syrian situation is more hopeful than in decades, but immense risks remain—sanctions, regional pressures, and economic challenges persist.
• Trump’s National Security Strategy is a break from past U.S. policy orthodoxy, loaded with ideological subtext and internal contradictions. Its value as an actual strategic guide is open to question.
• Major U.S. financial actors are positioning themselves both as strategic partners and potential moderating influences in an era when industrial policy and national security are increasingly intertwined.

For listeners: This episode captures a moment of dramatic flux in both U.S. foreign policy and the private sector’s engagement in national security, through frank, sardonic, detail-rich analysis from Lawfare’s experts.