Rational Security: "Attacking Iran" Special Edition

Podcast: Rational Security (Lawfare Institute)
Host: Scott R. Anderson
Date: March 5, 2026
Panelists: Benjamin Wittes, Dan Byman, Ariane Tabatabai
Main Theme: A deep-dive analysis of the unprecedented U.S.-led military operation against Iran, focusing on the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the implications for U.S. policy, regional actors, and Iran's future.

Episode Overview

The panel dedicates the episode to dissecting the dramatic U.S. and Israeli military campaign against Iran, which began days earlier with a targeted strike killing Iran’s Supreme Leader. The discussion explores the factors leading to President Trump’s decision for regime change, Israeli and Gulf states' involvement, global reactions, and potential outcomes for the Iranian regime and broader Middle East stability.

Key Discussion Topics & Insights

1. What Drove Trump’s Decision to Attack Iran?

(Isn't It Iranic?)

• The panel explores why this Trump administration—despite previous restraint and a more "America First" cabinet—opted for such a high-risk, regime-change operation against Iran.
• Ari Tabatabai [09:08]: Characterizes the policy as a culmination of escalating actions: withdrawal from the JCPOA, “maximum pressure,” the Soleimani strike, and the “Midnight Hammer” strikes on nuclear sites.
  • Operational successes in Venezuela and the Caribbean further convinced Trump that decisive force can be used with limited cost:

    "Operational success of Venezuela, the Caribbean, and the relative low cost of Midnight Hammer ... led the President to think ... maybe you can actually kind of start and end a military campaign and do it on your own terms." (E, 11:03)

• Dan Byman [15:08]: Views the escalation as a “learning” progression, not a sudden pivot. Trump became convinced by recent military successes and advisors more eager to use force:

  "Long term thinking is certainly not a hallmark of this president ... I think he has been convinced ... military operations are both successful and very low cost." (D, 15:19)

• Benjamin Wittes [18:24]: Adds psychological and institutional factors—Trump’s enjoyment of wielding military power, “Israel envy” (admiring Israeli audacity and success), and the loss of restraint within the administration:

  "This is fun. And he's got this military with these really powerful tools... you can get away with a string of things where you don't pay the downside risk, at least in the short term." (C, 18:26)

2. Operation Context and Risk Assessment

• Degraded Iranian Power: Anderson points to the context—years of regional conflict have left Iran weakened after Israeli operations against Hezbollah, collapse of the Assad regime, and blows to Hamas.
• Dan Byman [24:37]: Questions whether Iran still presents an immediate threat that justifies U.S. action. Points out professional military advice warned of operational risk and munitions shortages, with opportunity costs in other global theaters:

  "These munitions and US military assets in general are wanted in Europe...in Asia for China threats. So there's tremendous opportunity costs." (D, 27:26)

• Anderson [28:58]: Raises legal doubts, citing administration’s expansive interpretation of executive power due to low expected U.S. casualties, sidestepping Congressional oversight.

3. Regional Dynamics: Israel, Gulf States & Beyond

(Bibi's Big Adventure)

• Ari Tabatabai [31:55]: Gulf Arab states have quietly supported tougher action against Iran while hedging publicly to avoid Iranian retaliation.
  • U.S., Israel, Gulf states have grown more integrated militarily, especially in air defense and intelligence.
• Benjamin Wittes [35:07]: Netanyahu’s motivation is strategic, long-standing, and straightforward: eliminate threats systematically, from proxies to nuclear infrastructure to the leadership itself.

  "There are certain things about him that are very simple and actually very pure. And one of them is that he believes that Iran is the principal threat to Israel." (C)

  • Domestic Calculations: Netanyahu is leveraging this success to counterbalance political vulnerabilities at home after October 7th, likening the approach to “settling all family business.”
• Dan Byman [44:59]: Summarizes the Israeli "mow the grass" doctrine: preference for neighboring enemies to be weak, divided, and unable to pose a serious threat; skepticism about true regime change’s upside.

4. International Response

• Scott R. Anderson [50:54]: Notes tepid support from European allies (stronger in past, now muted or critical), legal and practical constraints (especially for UK, Spain). China and Russia condemn; few states outside U.S./Israel openly supportive.
• Ari Tabatabai [54:03]: European allies juggle legal, security, and alliance management considerations—wary of further destabilizing conflict, wary of Trump strong-arming on NATO and trade.

  "Everything is playing out against the kind of fracturing essentially of NATO ... they're obviously trying to manage the Trump administration and ... all the issues you're laying out with regard to Iran." (E, 54:09)

  • China sees strategic benefit in a distracted U.S., despite short-term economic pain from instability.

5. Iran’s Retaliatory Capabilities & Risks

• Dan Byman [60:39]: Warns of heightened terrorism risk globally, since Iran’s historic restraint is gone with the regime itself under existential threat:

  “When you think of attacks in Europe, but especially attacks in the United States, Iran for the most part has been cautious ... Well, right now, this is an existential threat ... that disincentive is removed.” (D)

  • Even if the regime survives, leadership losses incentivize global retaliation over months or years.

6. The Foggy Future: What Comes Next in Iran?

(MIGA: Make Iran Great Again?)

• Ari Tabatabai [64:52]: Political landscape is a chaotic vacuum—a transition council, Khamenei’s son (Mujtaba), potential for figures from the Green Movement, but real reformers have been brutally targeted.

  “It’s not clear to me ... we need to kind of wait for the dust to settle to see where the chips fall ... What is clear though is that at least so far, the kind of fundamental architecture of the system is intact.” (E)

  • Results could range from another hardliner, to a domestically reformist insider, to a fractured or failed state. The regime’s resilience, especially the IRGC, is by design.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s Evolution:

  "The more Wittes, the worse things are for the world is a good rule of thumb." (Benjamin Wittes, joking, 04:03)

• On decision-making and risk:

  "I think there's this view that operational success ... have led the President to think ... that maybe you can actually ... end a military campaign and do it on your own terms." (Ari Tabatabai, 11:09)

• On Israeli strategy:

  "He systematically went after the Iranian proxies one after another, and did so very systematically and very effectively, frankly...he then went after the Iranian air defenses and nuclear program, recruiting the United States to do the nuclear program part...he then went after the leadership of the country." (Benjamin Wittes, 37:50) "I do think there's a coherent vision here, and it's just one that completely ignores the Palestinians." (C, 50:54)

• Risk of terrorism:

  "If the United States stops 19 out of 20 plots, that's a 95% success rate. But that 5% is incredibly consequential." (Dan Byman, 62:35)

• On the shape of Iran’s future:

  "It's not clear to me...there is a council...the image that is emerging right now is that the decision making process around the nomination of this next supreme leader is either...if they announce who's going to be the successor, that that person might also get targeted, or the decision has not yet been made." (Ari Tabatabai, 65:15)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Big Picture & Structure of Episode: 04:38–05:34
• Trump Administration’s Shift to Military Action: 09:08–15:08
• Risk Calculations & Strategic Logic: 15:08–22:17
• Regional Power Balance & Israel’s Role: 31:55–41:18
• Israeli Strategic Vision (Mow the Grass): 42:34–50:54
• Global Reaction, Law & Alliances: 50:54–59:17
• Iran’s Retaliation & Terrorism Risk: 59:17–64:52
• Prospects for Iran Post-Khamenei: 64:52–70:19

Closing: Object Lessons (Book/Game/Media Recommendations)

• Wittes: Vibe coding and building legal tech tools with Claude (AI), 70:51
• Byman: Board Wargame "Next War: Iran" (not yet played), 73:51
• Anderson: Books: Mantle of the Prophet; All Fall Down (Gary Sick); Dutch film The Birthday (trans identity in Iran), 75:01
• Tabatabai: Persepolis (graphic novel/film) and Final Fantasy 7 remake (Switch 2), 79:26
• Wittes (supplemental): The Rest Is History podcast—four-part series on the Iranian Revolution, 80:42

Main Takeaways

• Risk Appetite Shift: Trump’s "lessons learned" and diminished institutional constraints led to the most aggressive use of U.S. power in decades.
• Regional Blurring: The operation is as much Israeli as American in logic and effect, enabled by deepening U.S.-Gulf-Israel ties.
• Global Peril: Allies are wary, legal debates abound, and the threat of state-sponsored Iranian terrorism is at its highest in years.
• Iran’s Future: Uncertain and dangerous—regime survival is likely in the short term, but the prospect of either an enduring hardline successor or destabilization looms.
• No Clear Exit: Both the U.S. and Israel’s operational objectives are ambiguous—weakening Iran may not bring peace, stability, or democracy, and risks a wider conflagration.

For further reading/clues to the ongoing situation, recommendations include classic histories of the Iranian revolution and analysis, as well as in-depth war games and media exploring Iran’s society.

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