Rational Security: The “Chestbursters Roasting on an Open Fire” Edition

Podcast: Rational Security by The Lawfare Institute
Episode Date: December 17, 2025
Hosts: Scott R. Anderson, Quinta Jurecic, Alan Rozenshtein
Guest: Ariane Tabatabai

Episode Overview

This end-of-year episode dives into several of the week’s prominent national security and foreign policy topics, inflected with the panel’s signature blend of legal analysis, humor, and personal anecdotes. The hosts and guest Ariane Tabatabai tackle three main topics: the Trump administration’s approval of Nvidia’s H200 AI chip sales to China, the President’s executive order preempting state AI regulation, and the aftermath and significance of a major Islamic State–inspired terrorist attack at Australia’s Bondi Beach. The show also discusses broader US-China strategic competition, the tension around federal versus state AI policy, the nuanced global threat of antisemitism, and the resilience (and limits) of gun control.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Nvidia’s H200 AI Chips: US-China AI Race

(Starts ~07:00)

• Topic Framing: The Trump administration reversed prior US policy by allowing Nvidia’s H200 chips—a powerful generation of AI hardware—to be exported to China. This marks a major shift from the prior "small yard, high fences" approach, which limited China’s access to such technology for competitive reasons.
• Policy Motivation & Ambiguity:
  • The reasoning is debated: Is the administration seeking to make China dependent on US chips (thus providing leverage) or simply opening a new, lucrative market for Nvidia?
  • Notably, Trump has included a “25% kickback”—effectively a tax on every chip sold to China.
• National Security and Economic Tension:
  • The national security apparatus (and the 2025 National Security Strategy) shows deep internal contradictions about China: Are we rivals in a zero-sum game, or can spheres of influence and economic interplay allow for "getting along"?
  • Ariane Tabatabai highlights the tension between stated policy and actual conduct: “It’s almost like you have these different sides of the House that wrote different parts of the document and they didn’t really clear it with one another.” (14:38)
• Strategic Consequences Debated:
  • Alan Rozenshtein: The US leads China not in human talent or energy, but “in compute”—the ability to design these chips. Allowing China access undercuts the US’s primary lead in the field. “If you want durable preemption, it’s got to come through Congress.” (43:34)
  • The legislation’s 25% kickback is called out as policy “farcical, idiotic,” and possibly unconstitutional (27:50).
• PLA Concern: The Chinese People’s Liberation Army may benefit, and the US should be “maintaining every inch of superiority that we have,” per Ari Tabatabai (32:32).
• Strategic Worldview Shift:
  • The Trump administration appears to see competition with China strictly in economic terms, not as a broader geopolitical or normative struggle. This reframes traditional US grand strategy (32:52–38:35).
  • Scott argues: “If you accept that, then it becomes much less of a zero-sum game... maybe we can accept that China has a little bit more advantage in AI" (34:21).

Notable Quote

“The very idea that we’re operating in a policy environment... where idiotic, truly asinine considerations like, ‘can we make some money off of this deal,’ is even being considered next to the profound strategic questions here makes me very uncomfortable…”
— Alan Rozenshtein (28:44)

2. AI Regulation: The Executive Order Preempting States

(Begins ~43:00)

• Context: Frustrated by Congress’s inability to pass preemption of state AI laws, the Trump administration issues an executive order attempting to frame AI regulation as a federal-only matter.
• Substance and Limits:
  • As Alan explains, an executive order “is not magic. It is just a Truth Social post on nicer stationery.” (47:16)
  • The EO directs DOJ to litigate challenges against state laws, generally relying on the dormant Commerce Clause.
  • It also tries to attach spending conditions (e.g., broadband expansion funds), but this is seen as legally questionable and likely ineffective.
  • The policy risks “poisoning the well” for durable, genuinely Congressional preemption.
• Partisan Irony:
  • Traditionally, federal preemption versus state-level “laboratories of democracy” arguments have swapped partisan valence. Now, Republican efforts turn anti–states’ rights.
• Scott’s Critique:
  • Scott says 90% of EOs are “horseshit,” especially later in an administration when performative politics outweigh real policy (53:17).
  • He doubts threats will actually curb ambitious blue-state regulation: “If anything, I kind of think that this kind of makes a lot of state legislators looking for a political cause to say... national press... because it’s going to be contested by the Trump administration.” (54:26)
• International Competition:
  • Ariane notes the tension: “We are cutting the diplomatic infrastructure upon which we have relied to advocate for U.S. businesses, for the U.S. models. With the reorgs at State… the nixed USAID local connectivity projects, we are making it more challenging, I think, to compete in this space.” (57:09)

Notable Quote

“An executive order is not magic. It is just a Truth Social post on nicer stationery. An executive order… is an interoffice memo… and preempting state legislation is not something any part of the executive branch can do.”
— Alan Rozenshtein (47:16)

3. The Bondi Beach Terror Attack: Antisemitism & Security

(Segment begins ~62:40)

• Incident Summary: Two attackers, a father-son pair (father an immigrant, son possibly first-generation), killed 15 and injured 40 at a Hanukkah event. The event is marked as Australia’s deadliest terrorist attack, explicitly Islamic State–inspired.
• Intersecting Policy Issues:
  • Immigration: Both attackers and the bystander-hero were immigrants.
  • Gun Control: Australia’s strict gun laws likely limited the scale—attackers used a bolt-action rifle and shotgun, likely legally acquired. “This is a real case study in exactly how those laws are really effective... If you saw two attackers armed with those sorts of weapons you can buy in the United States, I cannot imagine how many more people would be dead.” — Scott R. Anderson (78:12)
  • Antisemitism: Australia has logged 3,700 anti-Semitic attacks since October 7, 2024.
• Philosophical Challenges:
  • Alan reflects: “It’s moments like this when I reflect on the fact that there are not even 16 million Jews in the world... and we are not particularly well liked. We have not been particularly well liked for several millennia... it is hard not to view instances like this with just deep, deep, deep pessimism...” (68:48)
  • On combating antisemitism: “[It] means clamping down on speech. But I don’t think that ends well either. ...when [Jews] look to their right, because the people to their right often dislike Muslims more than they dislike Jews. ...that doesn't end well either. ...the sort of nativist blood and soil nationalism never stops… it always comes for the Jews in the end.” (69:45)
• Broader Context:
  • Scott situates this within ongoing Islamic State “call to attack”: “This is not a trend isolated to Jewish communities… it's a reality of terrorism that is a persistent threat...” (73:19)
  • Both US and global antisemitism is increasing, with policy attention insufficient—Ari notes, “Counterterrorism is very much an afterthought in [the National Security Strategy]. It’s almost as though we are wishing for the terrorism challenge to go away.” (65:14)

Notable Quotes

“I have no idea. I don’t know the first way to think about this problem.”
— Alan Rozenshtein, on combating antisemitism in pluralist, open societies (72:58)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Sick Children as WMD:
  “I continue to be sick because my children are Geneva Convention violations.” – Alan Rozenshtein (02:48)
  “We need an EO on Scott Anderson also being a weapon of mass destruction.” – Ariane Tabatabai (04:28)

• Podcast Banter:
  “I think you just described the premise of the movie Alien.” — Scott R. Anderson on kids napping on parents (05:21)

• AI Potato Chip Puns:
  “Can we also address the question of whether or not you’re allowed to talk about AI chips without making a potato chip pun?” — Alan Rozenshtein (07:29)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [07:00] — Introduction to Nvidia H200 chip export and strategic implications
• [14:38] — Ariane Tabatabai on contradictions in Trump’s China policy
• [21:34] — Alan Rozenshtein on technical and strategic implications of chip export
• [28:44] — Alan on the farcical nature of the chip tax
• [32:32] — PLA/defense implications, Ariane Tabatabai
• [34:21] — Scott reframes U.S. strategic competition doctrine
• [43:00] — Trump EO on preempting state AI regulation
• [47:16] — Alan explains the limits of executive orders
• [53:17] — Scott on the performativity of late-term EOs
• [54:26] — EO’s likely (non-)impact on state AI law efforts
• [57:09] — Diplomacy and U.S. international AI competition
• [62:40] — Bondi Beach terror attack: context and significance
• [68:48] — Alan’s personal reflection on global antisemitism
• [78:12] — Gun control effectiveness in Australian context

Object Lessons (Closing Segment)

• Jesus Christ Superstar (Alan): A love letter to the musical’s chaotic genius—“It’s metal, man. It’s awesome.” (83:30)
• Holiday Sour Cream Coffee Cake (Scott): A family tradition recipe—dense, heavy, perfect for winter (85:06)
• Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight (Ariane): A sobering film about post-colonial Zimbabwe—recommended, but maybe not for the holidays (87:07)

Conclusion

This episode highlights ongoing, unresolved tensions in US policy: between economic interests and national security, federal and state authority, domestic and global threats, and the challenge of responding to rising antisemitism and terrorist violence. The conversation balances sobering national security realities with candid, often darkly comic banter, exemplifying Rational Security’s blend of expertise, analysis, and humanity.

For further reading/listening:

• Lawfare’s deep dive on export controls and AI
• The Scaling Laws podcast on AI legal/regulatory strategy
• CSET piece on PLA procurement and AI (Bresnik/McFall)