Rational Security – “Don’t Upset the Masks” Edition

Date: October 15, 2025
Hosts: Scott R. Anderson, Quinta Jurecic, Alan Rozenshtein
Guests: Benjamin Wittes, Kate Klonick, Molly Roberts

Episode Overview

This week’s Rational Security brings together Lawfare's senior editors—including longtime co-host Ben Wittes, returning Lawfare editor Kate Klonick, and newcomer Molly Roberts—for a spirited analysis of major national security events. The group delves into the recent (fictional) Trump administration-brokered Gaza ceasefire and peace plan, unprecedented political messaging by federal agencies during the ongoing government shutdown, and China’s economic maneuvers in the form of rare earth metal export controls. The conversation is peppered with legal nuance, skepticism, historical analogies, and their signature mix of wry humor and candor.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Icebreaker: The Masks in Lawfare’s Office

[00:22–04:15]

• The episode’s title refers to Ben Wittes’ collection of large, haunting masks from Kenya, inherited after unnerving both his mother’s staff and his own colleagues.
• The masks are described as “agitated spirits” that are judged both protective and “easy to anger,” inspiring the phrase “Don’t upset the masks” from staff member Michaela Fogel.
  • “The masks came from Kenya...his wife found them so disturbing that she made him get rid of them.” – Ben Wittes [01:38]
  • “They are good. It’s just that they are easy to anger.” – Ben Wittes [04:02]
• Commentary on office decor segues into the main topics.

2. Gaza Ceasefire & Trump Peace Plan

[05:02–30:48]

The Breakthrough

• The panel discusses the first phase of a Trump administration-brokered peace plan for Gaza, featuring:
  • Ceasefire between Israel and Hamas
  • Release of all living Israeli hostages and return of some remains
  • Release of hundreds of prisoners by Israel, some with high Hamas profiles
  • A peace conference in Sharm el Sheikh, major international buy-in, and apparent bipartisan praise in the US

Cautious Optimism & Skepticism

• Scott R. Anderson outlines the celebratory reception but queries the depth and durability of the breakthrough.

• Ben Wittes lauds the humanitarian progress, but urges caution:

  • “It is a very good thing to have a ceasefire...But I want to understand before I credit the administration with something more than a ceasefire deal, they’ve clearly got, that I want to see that the ceasefire holds for more than a few days.” [10:02–16:32]
  • Emphasizes difficulty in achieving sustainable peace: “Show me the Treaty of Versailles before you declare Armistice Day to be more than an armistice.”
  • Warns about the fragility of both Israeli and Gazan political structures.

• Molly Roberts notes the Trump administration’s unique leverage with both Gulf States and Israel, attributing success to “egos and dealmaking.”

• Quinta Jurecic/Kate Klonick are skeptical much will endure beyond this phase; see risk of collapse, especially if provocations or unsatisfactory disarmament triggers renewed fighting.

  • “I don’t really understand what is to stop Israel from saying, hey, Hamas, you haven't disarmed to our satisfaction...I don’t really understand how this doesn’t fall apart.” – Molly Roberts [17:41]

The Two-State Solution and Politics

• Scott asserts that, remarkably, the plan revives the two-state solution as a formal diplomatic objective, marking a sharp reversal in decades of Republican policy.
  • “The big shift...is a complete 180 of the Republican Party’s approach to this conflict.” [18:34–21:11]
• Ben remains deeply skeptical of genuine Israeli government buy-in, characterizing Netanyahu’s likely approach as: “Announce whatever you want and do your photo ops, and then we’ll raze Gaza to the ground tomorrow.”
  • “You are assuming the stability of administration positions over time...just isn’t the way Trump thinks about it.” [24:15]
• Group agrees that even real progress—hostage returns, humanitarian aid—is significant, but broader peace is uncertain.

Memorable Exchanges

• “You’re relying on shame to regulate Trump...I think he will walk away from ever having done this in a heartbeat.” – Ben Wittes [26:19]
• “By no stretch of imagination...is this going to be like a real process that looks like the Trump plan step by step.” – Scott R. Anderson [28:02]
• “No plan survives contact with the enemy.” – Scott R. Anderson [28:02]

3. Government Shutdown & Official Political Messaging

[30:48–49:38]

Unprecedented Use of Government Resources

• During the third week of the US government shutdown, federal websites and out-of-office notices are brazenly blaming Democrats—something new and overtly political.
  • Example: “You will get both a pop up and a banner...that says...the Democrats aren’t letting us do it.” – Molly Roberts [32:23]

The Hatch Act Quagmire

• The group walks through the Depression-era Hatch Act, which forbids federal employees from engaging in political activity on the job.
• Molly Roberts notes that despite surface-level violations, enforcement is toothless; the law presumes the President will self-police, which is unrealistic.
  • “It seems really obvious...that this is exactly what’s happening now under the Trump administration. Unfortunately, it turns out that the Hatch act...is pretty weak.” [35:11]

Accountability Gaps

• Kate Klonick explains:
  • Private citizens can file complaints with the Office of Special Counsel (OSC), but OSC ultimately reports to...the President.
  • “There is no private right of action...you can submit these complaints online...then the investigation...ends up in a report to the President who has discretion to act.” [39:40]
  • Notable: The acting OSC head lacks credibility and the nominee has troubling associations, making enforcement unlikely.
  • Quote: “Put that all together and nobody cares about violations of the HATCH Act.” – Molly Roberts [44:47]

Historical, Legal, and Practical Frustrations

• Ben Wittes:
  • “The remedy presupposes that the President takes his ‘take care’ obligations seriously and took an oath. That actually means something.”
  • The situation is “quaint relative to our current capital-S situation.” [42:06]
• Scott introduces creative historical remedies like qui tam actions as a theoretical response.

4. China’s Rare Earth Export Controls – AI & Economic War

[49:38–66:26]

The Move

• China imposes broad export controls on rare earth metals and any downstream/exported products containing even trace amounts, impacting US and global tech supply chains.
  • “China controls...about 70% of the supply of known supply and 90% of the refinement capacity...They have become essential to key technologies.” – Scott R. Anderson [49:38]
  • Motivated by tense US-China relations and upcoming APEC meetings; restrictions may simply be bargaining chips.

Global Economic & Security Implications

• Kate Klonick walks through how fragile and interdependent tech supply chains are—few global sources for key semiconductor chemicals (“noble gases,” neon, etc.).
  • Some such resources aren’t artificially manufactured, making dependence difficult to break.
    • “Noble gases are not makeable...you have to just find them.” – Ben Wittes [58:34]
  • Quotes: “This is like rocks versus rock and roll...US has the content...China has...the rocks, the raw materials.” – Kate Klonick [61:07]

Impact and Attribution

• Scott questions whether Trump’s earlier trade war may have provoked China’s action, though others note chip-specific restrictions were a Biden initiative.
  • “This is a threat...to the whole global economy. Because we are...pouring into infrastructure for AI development, which suddenly...has big economic ramifications.” – Scott R. Anderson [62:10]
  • “If it were just escalation in the chips area you probably could point to the Biden administration more clearly...But this is about something bigger.” – Molly Roberts [64:49]

Science Interlude

• The crew gets nerdy about noble gases, Helium shortages, and blimps; references to Primo Levi’s "The Periodic Table" illuminate the names’ origins.

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On being responsibly cautious:
  “No one ever went broke going cautious, on waiting for good thing, on being excited about good things happening in Gaza.” – Ben Wittes [29:24]

• On legal remedies:
  “This actually isn’t a case of a legal violation with no remedy contemplated, but it’s just one where the remedy contemplated is super quaint relative to our current capital S situation.” – Ben Wittes [42:06]

• On the new head of OSC:
  “He described federal workers as bugmen who leach the diminishing lifeblood of the dying republic.” – Molly Roberts [44:16]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Lawfare Office Masks & Superstitions: [00:22–04:15]
• Gaza Ceasefire & Trump Peace Plan: [05:02–30:48]
• Government Shutdown & Political Messaging: [30:48–49:38]
• China’s Rare Earth Export Controls: [49:38–66:26]
• Object Lessons (Fun closing segment): [67:49–74:58]

Object Lessons (Closing Fun)

[67:49–74:58]

• Ben Wittes: Calls for DC locals to “litter” dead sunflowers in front of the Russian embassy as minor trolling for a cause.
• Kate Klonick & Scott R. Anderson: Nostalgic reflections on aging and gardening; Scott asks listeners for spicy recipe ideas for his ghost peppers.
• Molly Roberts: Suggests baking “prinsesstårta,” a domed, green Swedish cake, recommending Nicola Lamb’s accessible baking newsletter.

Tone and Style

Light, irreverent, and collegial—combining legal rigor with deep dives into policy, and a dash of self-deprecating humor and nerdy asides.

For Listeners Who Missed It

This episode delivers:

• Realpolitik on the new Gaza ceasefire and why not to cheer too soon
• Frustration—and dark amusement—over American norms and accountability breaking down in the “rules” era of presidential politics
• A crisp, accessible primer on rare earth minerals, semiconductor supply chains, and how international economic policy really works
• Office lore and quirky intellect, all with the Lawfare team’s inimitable style

If you care about national security, global tech, or the state of the rule of law—and want your analysis with personality—this episode delivers.