Rational Security: The "F*cked by Five" Edition
Date: October 8, 2025
Hosts: Scott R. Anderson (A), Tyler McBrien (D), Dan Byman (B), Lauren Voss (C)
Podcast by: The Lawfare Institute
Episode Overview
This episode delivers a sharp, in-depth discussion of several major national security crises dominating headlines: the Trump administration’s dramatic increase in domestic military deployments to US cities; an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (“the Gaza Strip Peace Deal”); and the apparent gearing up for US military intervention against Venezuela’s Maduro regime. The hosts thread these complex issues together with keen legal, policy, and historical analysis—plus plenty of characteristically wry Lawfare humor.
Key Topics & Discussion Points
1. Domestic Military Deployments: Trump, Portland, Chicago, and the Insurrection Act
(Start – 35:22)
The Situation
- The Trump administration is deploying federally-controlled National Guard troops to Democratically-run cities—Portland and Chicago—citing crime and unrest. Deployments echo prior actions in Los Angeles and ongoing National Guard presence in D.C.
- Legal disputes swirl over the President's authority—using 10 USC §12406 rather than the Insurrection Act (which hasn't been invoked since 1992).
Key Insights
- Extraordinary Step & Transparency Concerns:
"Usually when the military is deployed for civil unrest, you have riots, massive violent protests... In Portland, the facts on the ground just don't show that... these deployments are based on facts that are put out that are completely unclear."
— Lauren Voss [08:44] - Naked Partisanship & 'Tinderbox' Effect:
"There's a strong correlation to where these troops are headed and the party affiliation of the leaders... ICE agents masked, non-identified, are also another presence adding chaos and fear. Throw in armed troops and it just feels like a tinderbox."
— Tyler McBrien [10:46] - Right-Wing Media & Political Symbolism:
"Both Chicago and Portland have gotten a lot of play in right-wing media. They're portrayed as emblematic of what's wrong with 'Joe Biden's America'... For Trump's base, these deployments have resonance."
— Dan Byman [11:30] - Disinformation's Role:
"I spent a bit yesterday trying to find a live feed of the ICE facility in Portland—so many were fake or from 2020, rousing people up... There's so much disinformation, people don't know what the facts on the ground are."
— Lauren Voss [12:35] - Legal ‘Split Screen’: Rhetoric vs. Courtroom:
"On one side, Trump treats the military as another law enforcement agency, deployable at will... but when DOJ actually goes to court, they have to make credible, serious arguments. This collapse of crime vs. war distinctions is especially dangerous."
— Tyler McBrien [18:07]
The ‘Antifa’ Label & Domestic Terrorism
- Trump labeled ‘antifa’ a domestic terror group—despite lacking legal basis or organizational structure.
- Domestic terrorism trends have shifted: recent data (per Byman/CSIS) show an uptick in left-wing attacks (still low level), a sharp decline in right-wing attacks.
- Stephen Miller's rhetoric is intentionally inflated versus the complex, non-group-based reality of extremist violence.
- Legal gray areas on using Title 32 (state-controlled, federally funded National Guard) versus Title 10 (federalized) deployments and Posse Comitatus restrictions.
"With antifa... it's not really a group, just an ideology. The label is a way of saying 'we're serious'—politically useful, not legally meaningful."
— Dan Byman [26:25]
Caution from History
- Post-9/11 legal opinions (esp. John Yoo OLC memos) opened doors to extreme military use domestically in the name of counterterrorism; such reasoning could be revived in crises.
- Courts are increasingly forced into fact-finding roles amid political and disinformation pressure.
2. Trump’s Gaza Strip Peace Effort: A Diplomatic Breakthrough?
(35:22 – 59:14)
The Deal
- The Trump administration (with Tony Blair and Gulf states' help) unveiled a 21-point peace plan for Gaza.
- If finalized, deal includes:
- Palestinian Authority to regain authority in Gaza (pending reforms)
- Reinvigoration of the two-state solution
- Hostage and remains exchanges on both sides
- Israeli withdrawal, security assurances, and a peace process 'restart'
Analysis & Debate
- Unprecedented Policy Shift:
"This reflects a line we’ve never seen the Trump administration walk down... Not that different from what Biden would've wanted—a dramatic shift in US/Republican policy."
— Scott R. Anderson [49:22] - Reasons for Cautious Optimism:
“You never lose money betting against Israeli–Palestinian peace, but the odds have changed... Alignment of domestic and international pressures is unique. The moment now is more propitious.”
— Dan Byman [40:30] - Biggest Hurdles—Follow-through, Details & Spoilers:
"There's still so much work on the details... Transition structures, timelines, and expectations are vague—where you often see peace deals fail."
— Lauren Voss [56:03] - Political Ramifications:
“Embracing a plan that revives the two-state solution, accepting PA control in Gaza, and disavowing annexation—that’s extraordinary... If Trump sticks to it, the Republican party will likely have to go along, building bipartisan consensus.”
— Scott R. Anderson [49:22] - Memorable Moment—Trump and Bibi Netanyahu’s Reported Exchange:
"Trump, Bibi told Trump this means nothing, and Trump reportedly said, 'You’re always so effing negative.' I think you were playing Trump and I was playing Netanyahu."
— Tyler McBrien [53:54]
3. The 'Maduro Doctrine': Venezuela and US Military Posturing
(59:14 – 80:03)
What’s Happening?
- The US is openly building up military forces in the southern Caribbean, targeting cartel-linked ships (some lethal strikes already) and possibly preparing for bolder action against Nicolás Maduro’s regime.
- Legal pretext: labeling cartels as ‘terrorists’ and citing Maduro’s inability to address threats ("willing and unable").
- Echoes "Monroe Doctrine" rhetoric—and US interventions in Panama/Granada.
Assessment
- Political Theater or Actual Strategy?
"This is an echo of Portland: the military and terrorism label signal 'getting tough'—powerful symbolic moves, especially for domestic politics."
— Dan Byman [62:14] - Risks of Military Escalation:
"A campaign in Venezuela would almost certainly escalate the existing humanitarian crisis and region-wide migration. This is not Panama or Granada—Venezuela is a serious target."
— Scott R. Anderson [65:43] - Legal Analysis:
"As a matter of international law, the US position is indefensible—those drug traffickers are civilians, not lawful targets... [On] Maduro, the case for force also fails under Article 2(4) of the UN Charter."
— Scott R. Anderson [72:32] - Trump's Negotiating Style:
"This administration believes in the power of bullying... If you act crazy enough, people will cave. Medium- and long-term negative consequences are easy to overlook for short-term wins."
— Scott R. Anderson [77:05]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Chutes and Ladders as National Security Metaphor:
"In Gaza, we seem to be climbing up a ladder, but it might actually be a chute. We could make that annoying comparison for every foreign policy crisis right now."
— Dan Byman [01:23] -
On the Legal & Rhetorical Dissonance:
"There's a split screen between what the administration is saying publicly—military as law enforcement, at will—and what DOJ says in the courts. The law between crime and war just collapses."
— Tyler McBrien [18:07] -
On Disinformation Driving Deployment Decisions:
"What we’re seeing is an initiative to change facts on the ground to justify more military force, and a lot of it is incited from the beginning through disinformation."
— Lauren Voss [12:35]
Timestamps for Critical Segments
-
Topic 1: Domestic Military Deployment: 03:22 – 35:22
- Legal framework, political symbolism, disinformation, and historical context
-
Topic 2: Gaza Peace Plan: 35:22 – 59:14
- Substance of the deal, alignment of regional and US politics, doubts over implementation
-
Topic 3: Venezuela & The "Maduro Doctrine": 59:14 – 80:03
- Buildup and rationale behind US military posture, legal and policy critique
-
Object Lessons: 80:41 – end
- Board games, TV comedies, music, and the cultural phenomenon of ‘dirty soda’
Tone, Style, and Notable Exchanges
The episode blends urgent legal/policy analysis with familiar conversational wit. The hosts display healthy skepticism and perspective, acknowledging both the gravity and bizarreness of current events.
Key Tone Markers:
- Humor: “If only we were living in Candyland...”
- Cynicism vs. Optimism: "You never lose money betting against Israeli–Palestinian peace... but the odds have changed."
Object Lessons: A Lighter Wrap-Up
- Dan: "The British Way" — an excellent GMT game on British colonial counterinsurgency (81:32)
- Tyler: The English Teacher — sitcom recommendation for smart, comforting TV (82:01)
- Scott: Katy Pruett in concert and Slow Horses (Apple TV) — “my favorite spy TV ever” (82:47)
- Lauren: The cultural phenomenon of “Dirty Soda” from Utah—“Mountain Dew, guava, strawberry, coconut cream... it sounds awful but tastes good!” (85:02)
For those seeking clarity amid chaos, this episode of Rational Security provides acute insights into the law, politics, and real-time dilemmas at the heart of US national security—never lacking for personality or perspective.