Rational Security: “The General Mattis of the NFL” Edition

Podcast: Rational Security, The Lawfare Institute
Date: February 12, 2025
Hosts/Panelists: Scott R. Anderson, Tyler McBrien, Anastasia Lapetina, Joel Brunel

Overview

This week’s episode features a high-level discussion of three major national security topics dominating headlines:

1. The Trump administration’s shocking announcement about Gaza
2. The transactional turn in U.S.-Ukraine relations as the Ukraine conflict persists
3. The remarkable dismissal of corruption charges against NYC Mayor Eric Adams

The panel dives deep into the implications, legal and political meanings, and the wider context of U.S. and international policy, weaving in the distinctive personalities and strategic calculations of President Trump’s second administration. Interwoven throughout are sharp observations about institutional resilience, populism, and the tension between purpose and public opinion. Notable lighter moments include sports metaphors, Super Bowl banter, and reflections on Jalen Hurts.

Key Topics & Discussions

1. Trump’s ‘Gaza Gambit’: U.S. to ‘Own’ and Rebuild Gaza

Segment Start: [03:31]

• Summary:
  President Trump’s public proposal—the U.S. would assume responsibility for Gaza, reconstructing it into a Mediterranean “riviera” while barring Palestinians from living there—has sent shockwaves through diplomatic circles.
• Scott Anderson sets up the topic:
  “President Donald Trump shocked the world last week… he announced plans for the United States to own Gaza, take responsibility for reconstructing it, and ultimately renovate it into a riviera on the Eastern Mediterranean. One he later made it clear that Palestinians would no longer be allowed to live in.” [05:31]

Key Points:

• The proposal seemed to come “out of nowhere,” even by the tumultuous standards of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
• The administration has waffled—at turns suggesting there would be no U.S. troops or funds involved, yet signaling that Palestinians would be resettled to Jordan or Egypt.
• Arab governments instantly rejected the idea. Israeli leadership, however, has quickly endorsed the Trump “vision.”

Notable Quotes:

• Joel Brunel:
  “There is one group in the world that has taken this at face value, and that is the society and the government of the State of Israel. … They can just press the button and in the most powerful man in the world, in a way that he says humane, in a way that they will be voluntary, that the Gaza problem just disappears.” [12:19]
• Tyler McBrien (on the concept’s historical roots):
  “I was recently reading some old Benny Morris work…he characterized David Ben Gurion as a transferist…it’s an idea that, you know, since the founding.” [13:52]

Insights:

• The idea—seen either as disruptive negotiation or serious policy—has “radically transformed” Israeli discourse, legitimizing what had been a taboo: permanent Palestinian relocation.

• Scott R. Anderson connects the legal dots:
  “It’s very hard to square any of this with any conventional understanding of international law…if you’re kicking the Palestinians out, that’s clearly not allowed… under international humanitarian law.” [22:29]

• Joel flags the wider impact:
  “You can’t put the ethnic demon back in the bottle. It’s out. …the policy conversation in Israel has radically transformed.” [27:18]

2. Ukraine: Transactional Alliances & Trump’s ‘America First’

Segment Start: [29:26]

• Summary:
  With Trump’s second term, Ukraine faces both opportunity and anxiety. The administration eyes Ukrainian critical minerals—especially rare earths—as a transactional bargaining chip, while promising a quick end to the conflict.

• On Zelensky’s gambit:
  Anastasia Lapetina:
  “The Ukrainian government approach was to understand that Trump is a transactional man. … we were looking to offer some sort of economic interest… So in fall… Zelensky presented his so-called victory plan… joint use and investment of Ukraine’s critical minerals and critical resources, rare earths, minerals, whatever. …that was before the American election, pretty much everyone understood that to be a Trump sweetener.” [31:55]

Notable Quotes:

• Anastasia (on Trump’s intentions):
  “He doesn’t actually care about Ukraine or the right and wrong side of history or any of that. But at the same time, it still doesn’t make it easier when you hear him say things like, ‘Ukraine can be Russian, Ukraine may be Russian, Ukraine may not be Russian… all I care about is that we’re going to get access to their critical minerals and we’re going to get the money.’” [31:55]
• Tyler McBrien: (on Trump’s unpredictability)
  “It’s interesting painting Trump as this disruptor, but as Scott, as you were pointing out, it’s not a strategy or a doctrine, it’s like an anti strategy. He’s really hard to predict.” [37:26]

Insights:

• The panel draws a pointed contrast between U.S. dealings with Israel and Ukraine—Israel receives support without such strings, while Ukraine is pressed for resources.

• Anastasia adds:
  “Ukrainians… follow international law to the table specifically so the ally support is there… and still we like don’t get it to the same amount that Israel does. …when you hear Trump be like, oh, I’m going to support you only if you give us all of your critical minerals and critical weapons. Someone tweeted like, Israel doesn’t do shit and doesn’t give shit and gets everything and we have to give all of our resources.” [47:00]

• On security guarantees (NATO, U.S., or nuclear weapons):
  “Zelenskyy does want a guarantee of security for Ukraine going forward. … The only viable option is some sort of guarantee from Europe and from the US And Zelenskyy told in an interview with the Guardian… guarantees without America are not real guarantees.” [56:44]

3. Quid Pro Whoa: DOJ Drops Charges Against NYC Mayor Eric Adams

Segment Start: [63:50]

• Summary:
  The Department of Justice, under Trump’s direction, directed prosecutors to drop corruption charges against Mayor Eric Adams “without prejudice” so Adams can “focus” on crime and unauthorized immigration—a move widely seen as political payback for Adams’s overtures to Trump.

• Tyler summarizes:
  “In the memo… they mention that the Justice Department has reached this conclusion without assessing the strength of the evidence or the legal theories… rather that they’ve determined the dismissal is appropriate because of timing and also a diversion of Mayor Adams’ attention…” [64:51]

Notable Quotes:

• Scott:
  “That’s actually itself a pretty big betrayal of conventional norms. SDNY has traditionally operated pretty independently, even in the first Trump administration.” [67:31]

• Dan Richman (quoted by Tyler):
  “‘It sends its own message about this administration’s weaponization of the criminal process. Any official actually prosecuted for corruption has simply not groveled sufficiently to Trump.’” [69:16]

• Joel Brunel (on Blagojevich):
  “…Blagojevich, infamously one of the most corrupt politicians. This is our first governor. Four of the five previous governors have ended up in Japan. Right. Like it’s a tradition like none other. … if he hadn’t have been on Celebrity Apprentice, would this have happened?” [70:08]

Insights:

• The move both chills other potential critics and sets a precedent of overt political leverage over the rule of law.
• The panel repeatedly returns to the damage to institutions, and the risk of relying only on “elite” checks (courts, procedural independence) without complementary political or public pushback.
• Scott (on institutional resilience):
  “Institutions can’t stand on their own. …but institutions are where these battles are going to be fought for the next 18 months until the election cycle catches up. …discounting… the institutional fight… at this particular moment [is a mistake].” [80:49]

Notable Quotes / Moments

• Joel Brunel, on Jalen Hurts (and the episode title):
  “He’s the classic warrior philosopher mold of old… is he really the General Mattis of the NFL?” [01:41]
• Joel Brunel (on purpose vs. opinion):
  “I had a purpose before everyone has an opinion. … our purpose can’t be dependent on other people’s opinions.” [87:18]
• On the disruption narrative:
  Scott: “Anything can be disruptive…And to buy into that being a universal solvent, you have to buy into a status quo that is so irrevocably damaged and detrimental that wrecking anything and leaving no part of it standing is appropriate.” [30:09]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Super Bowl banter, opening context: [00:33–01:52]
• Panel introductions, episode preview: [01:52–03:31]
• Gaza/Trump Proposal topic: [03:31–29:26]
• Ukraine, rare earths, Zelenskyy’s strategy: [29:26–63:50]
• DOJ/Eric Adams/Quid Pro Whoa: [63:50–83:09]
• Object Lessons: [83:09–end]

Tone & Style

The conversation is thorough, frequently witty, intellectually rigorous, and leavened with wry observations and personal asides. The panelists maintain a direct, analytical style, but their familiarity with the historical and legal details gives the episode depth beyond standard commentary.

Conclusion

This episode of Rational Security efficiently tackles the week’s wildest stories from Washington and beyond, connecting the dots between presidential disruption, transactional geopolitics, and institutional stress tests at home. Through a mixture of sharp analysis, international context, and personal reflection, the panel illuminates the stakes behind the headlines—and what happens when leaders with “purpose before opinion” (or merely self-interest) challenge the boundaries of law, diplomacy, and politics.

Memorable Closing Moment

Joel Brunel:
“[Jalen Hurts] said that I had a purpose before everyone has an opinion. …our purpose can’t be dependent on other people’s opinions. …should be an inspiration for all of us who have passion and purpose before other people had opinions.” [87:18]

Further Listening

• Teaser: The Lawfare team announces “Escalation”—a narrative podcast on U.S.-Ukraine relations, launching February 24.
• Trailer: [83:40]
  “The show is called Escalation…the third year anniversary of Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine. …the trailer is sick. …the show is amazing, if I may say so myself.” – Anastasia Lapetina

End of Summary