Rational Security – The “Leftover Chicken Kyiv” Edition

Date: February 26, 2025
Hosts: Scott R. Anderson, Benjamin Wittes, Anastasia Lapatina, Natalie Orpet

Overview

This episode of Rational Security marks a rare occasion: the Lawfare team records entirely in-person for the first time in years. Amid nostalgic jokes about their soon-to-be-decommissioned shag-carpeted studio, the hosts plunge into an urgent and deeply consequential discussion of recent developments in U.S. foreign policy, particularly in relation to Ukraine and Guantanamo Bay. They're reacting in real time to breaking news, offering a blend of analysis, personal perspective, and clear distaste for some recent U.S. actions that, as the conversation makes clear, may come to define America's global image for years to come.

Key Topics & Discussion Points

1. “Chicken Kyiv Served Cold” – The Trump Administration’s Ukraine “Peace” Deal

(Begins ~06:00)

Breaking News on the Ukraine-U.S. Minerals Agreement

• The U.S. and Ukraine have reportedly reached a minerals agreement, dropping a previous demand that Ukraine match $500 billion in resource value.
• Under the deal, about half of Ukrainian mineral proceeds go into a special account which the U.S. will have some interest in, but security guarantees and NATO membership are absent.
• The deal sidesteps existing Ukrainian extraction companies, heralding U.S. companies’ involvement.

Key Insight:

• This move is seen not as a security arrangement but a starkly transactional economic deal, with strong echoes of 19th-century U.S. banana republic interventions.

Analysis – Ukrainian Perspective

• Anastasia Lapatina: “Ukraine didn’t have a choice here... the best we can hope for is that our diplomats are going to finesse some sort of less than terrible ARR and that's gonna be it... I don't think anyone seriously considered us fully, like flat on rejecting to sign it. And then what?” (08:06)

  • Lapatina notes widespread anger and shock in Ukraine—even among those who never held out hope for Trump’s support, the magnitude of the “absurdity” (misinformation, personal attacks on Zelenskyy, unmoored policy demands) surpasses expectations.

• Quote: “Trump is already spreading all sorts of lies about Ukraine, about Zelenskyy, clearly attacking Zelenskyy personally. So this isn’t... a political diplomatic disagreement. This is, I feel like, Trump’s personal feelings about the matter.” (08:21)

U.S. Domestic Reaction

• Scott R. Anderson: Recognizes the deep distaste for the deal among Americans as well, but notes the “psychological hurdle” for Ukraine is Trump’s persistent assertion that “this is just nothing we have an interest in” (14:14).
• Suggests that a deal this large and "gross" could paradoxically make Ukraine more secure in the short term by engaging U.S. interests when nothing else can—an “incredibly bitter and unfortunate pill.”

Historical Context & Moral Outrage

• Benjamin Wittes: “The United States took a country that is fighting for its continued existence... and then used that pressure to extort a mineral deal... I cannot think of a time that US Foreign policy has been oriented this way unless you go back to the era of the banana republics in Latin America.” (18:46)
  • Wittes draws explicit parallels to exploitative practices of old, emphasizing the lack of dignity or moral responsibility in this approach.
• Quote: “I actually think I want to end the sentence with this is disgusting.” (18:46)

The New Precedent — A Caution for Allies

• Natalie Orpet: “This whole thing was actually supposed to be about security guarantees... and that's just completely absent from this deal.” (22:20)
  • Raises concern over the shifting goalposts and the normalization of fracture between rhetoric and policy under Trump, warning of damage to U.S. alliances and global credibility.

2. “Eurovision” – Will Europe Step Up?

(Begins ~31:14, continues through ~46:00)

Europe Ponders Strategic Independence

• Newly elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has called for greater independence from the U.S., as transatlantic trust plummets under Trump.
• There’s talk (from Macron and others) of Europe possibly deploying troops to Ukraine and offering mineral deals of their own as leverage.

Key Quotes & Analysis

• Benjamin Wittes: “The delta between sincere European rhetoric about what Europe is going to do and European action is often very substantial. And right now, money talks, Mirage jets talk. I want to see French weapons. That’s what I want to see.” (30:50)

  • Skeptical of Europe’s capacity or will to meaningfully fill the American void in Ukraine, especially as timelines for ramping up defense industries stretch years into the future.

• Quinta Jurecic (paraphrased by Natalie Orpet): Macron is positioning France diplomatically for a future where Europe—out of necessity—steps up, but right now this is mostly posturing, not firepower.

Eastern European Perspective

• Lapatina: Ukrainians are intensely frustrated with both the Trump administration’s abandonment and Europe’s historical inability to “figure itself out.” Europeans have long talked a big game, but “keep talking this big game, as Ben said, you keep all this noise, but then you’ve been at it for several years and also, like, years before that… So, yeah, I mean, there is still a realization that ultimately NATO is what we want... But I don't think there is big hopes for Europe to step up and really figure itself out, unfortunately.” (37:01)

Value of Article 5 Now in Question?

• Anderson: “Europeans who have Article 5, it is at its absolute nadir in terms of value to them.” (39:11)
  • The credibility of the U.S. as a security guarantor is at rock bottom, with NATO allies now openly worried that “we’re not there for you.”

3. “Baywatch in Reruns” – Guantanamo Bay and the Return of Military Detention for Migrants

(Begins ~48:16, through ~75:00)

Massive Expansion of Migrant Detention at Guantanamo

• Trump’s executive order expands Guantanamo’s migrant operations facility to 30,000 beds, up from just 37 occupants—most recently held at a time—raising logistical and humanitarian concerns.
• Recent deported Venezuelans were not violent criminals as claimed; reports of isolation, suicide attempts, and lack of legal access have emerged.
• Detainees cycled through both the migrant facility (run by ICE) and Camp 6 (military), blurring lines of legal authority and rights.

Legal & Ethical Quagmires

• Natalie Orpet: “It’s really like a law school issue spotting exam…” (52:39)

  • Raises alarm about possible violations of Posse Comitatus (military involvement in law enforcement), lack of lawful basis for ICE to detain non-citizens outside the U.S., and the lack of access to counsel or any oversight.

  “One of the things that's really alarming here is that some of the detainees were held at the migrant operations center... Some of them were detained at Camp 6, which is part of the detention facilities for the Law of War detainees... This is sort of the extreme example of what is a broader issue, which is the military potentially seemingly being responsible for detaining migrants on a military base.” (52:39)

• Benjamin Wittes: While previously defending Guantanamo’s use for law of war detention, finds these current actions appalling:

  “If you're doing this to thump on your chests, because Guantanamo is where we take the bad hombres... because [the name] excites the Fox News crowd... that's disgusting.” (60:58)

Policy and Political Backfire?

• Anderson: Wonders if this policy will quickly become a huge bungle for Trump—a move rooted in optics and cruelty, likely to bring legal headaches and negative attention.

  “Americans were offended and horrified by Abu Ghraib. Right? It is still a mark on our national psychology... I'm not sure the same logic holds for migrants.” (72:37)

• Orpet: Suggests Guantanamo is a "test-case" for deeper military involvement in immigration enforcement—potentially laying the groundwork for even more dramatic illegal actions.

  “Guantanamo is sort of a test case or a bellwether for the use of the military in immigration enforcement matters.” (75:39)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Wittes (on Trump’s Ukraine policy): “He’s not playing three-dimensional chess. He just frickin’ hates you.” (24:20)

• Anderson: “We just became a country whose foreign policy is a giant extortion racket.” (26:18)

• Lapatina (on economic ‘silver lining’): “If Trump is gonna want this deal signed... it's gonna take years and years and years and billions of American investment to make it happen... all of that is jobs, all of that is money into the economy.” (16:57)

• Wittes (on European dreams of defense): “I want it to happen, you know, Slava la France, Slava Alemanna, you know, like, bring it on, guys. But you can't do it without money.” (32:30)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 06:10 – Introduction to Ukraine minerals agreement and the shape of the U.S. “peace” offer
• 08:06 – 18:29 – Ukrainian reaction, illusions shattered, resistance to Trump’s characterization of the war
• 18:46 – 26:35 – Historical analogies, moral outrage, the U.S. as extortionist; implications for other allies (e.g., Taiwan)
• 31:14 – 46:00 – Can Europe fill the gap? Macron’s diplomatic maneuvers, strategic autonomy, limits of European capacity
• 48:16 – 52:39 – Expansion of Guantanamo as a migrant detention site; legal and ethical analysis
• 52:39 – 69:19 – Deep dive into jurisdictional, legal, and moral problems around Guantanamo’s use for migrants
• 69:27 – 75:39 – Will this policy self-destruct? Legal activism, optics, historical patterns, and worries about future escalation

Object Lessons & Closing Reflections

(75:55 – End)

• Natalie Orpet: Describes the successful “Baby Summit” at her house—a lighthearted, diplomatic gathering of children under two, a brief respite from grim headlines.
• Anastasia Lapatina: Announces the launch of the Lawfare/Goat Rodeo podcast “Escalation”, a narrative on U.S.-Ukraine relations. (77:03)
• Benjamin Wittes: Reflects on the relative lack of Ukrainian political mobilization in the U.S., contrasting a recent Ukrainian rally (~thousands) with a pro-Israeli demonstration (~300,000), citing lessons for effective political organization. (80:33)
• Scott R. Anderson: Recommends Richard Linklater’s “Before Sunrise / Before Sunset / Before Midnight” trilogy, muses on generational experiences.

Conclusion

The “Leftover Chicken Kyiv” episode offers a bracing, sometimes bleak tour through the current state of U.S. foreign policy and its reverberations for Ukraine, Europe, and the U.S.'s own self-image. The tone is darkly humorous, self-aware, and unflinching—blending first-hand Ukrainian perspective with legal nitty-gritty, policy analysis, and historical memory. The hosts’ consensus is clear: the U.S. is entering a period defined by short-term, transactional “wins”—but at the risk of its credibility, alliances, and reputation.