Rational Security – "Live from Aspen" Edition (July 21, 2025)

Host: Scott R. Anderson (Lawfare Institute)
Guests: Shane Harris (The Atlantic), Mark Goldberg (Global Dispatches), Alex Ward (Wall Street Journal)
Location: Aspen Security Forum

Episode Overview

This special live episode takes place at the Aspen Security Forum, a premier gathering of national security and foreign policy elites. Scott R. Anderson brings a journalist-all-star panel—Shane Harris, Mark Goldberg, and Alex Ward—to break down the conference’s major themes and what they reveal about American and global security debates in 2025. The conversation dives into:

• The Trump administration’s late, controversial pullout from the Forum,
• The increased prominence and anxiety of international (especially allied) voices,
• The ubiquitous role of AI in current security discourse.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Trump Administration Boycotts Aspen Forum (05:35–17:34)

Background:

• On the eve of the conference, the Defense Department abruptly barred over a dozen officials from attending, citing Aspen as promoting the “evils of globalism.”

Discussion Highlights:

• Shane Harris explains this was not only logistically devastating, but a calculated snub of the "foreign policy blob." The last-minute move signaled animosity towards policy elites:
  • "They have a history of people coming here and, you know, being chummy and cordial with people. And that is just not the optic that they were gonna go for this year at all." (10:49, Shane Harris)
• Alex Ward points out prior administrations—especially the Biden White House—relied on Aspen to hone messaging and woo elites:
  • "It's the most captive an administration can have of us...80% of it is an administration getting their talking points across and letting us know, and therefore, you know, the country that reads us a sense of where they're coming from..." (12:36, Alex Ward)
• The panel agrees the move was likely motivated by optics, internal fear of public questioning, and desire to separate from establishment venues (“trolling” in Alex’s words).

Notable Quotes:

• "They screwed them at the last minute, let's just be honest about that. And they had to scramble and try and put together meaningful conversations for people who just came out here. And it's not an easy place to get to. And I'm sure that the administration delighted in inconveniencing them in that way." (09:49, Shane Harris)
• "If media questions or questions from the well heeled here scare you, then maybe the government isn't for you." (15:47, Alex Ward)

2. The Forum’s Audience, Politics, and Missed Opportunities (17:34–25:10)

What kind of crowd is Aspen?

• Mark Goldberg asserts: Despite “globalist” stereotypes, Aspen’s audience skews establishment Republican, with conversations echoing mainstream GOP foreign policy positions (Israel, NATO, great power competition).
  • "This is the Republican foreign policy establishment… at key critical moments…[Trump] has opted for the foreign policy choice most favored by the conventional Republicans who are gathered here.” (18:34, Mark Goldberg)
• The panel notes the Trump administration missed an opportunity to curry favor and tout its “wins” to a receptive, industry-heavy audience.

“Deep State” Narrative:

• Shane Harris outlines how administration figures paint Aspen as a villainous “Deep State mountain gathering.”
  • "They have this narrative…that even though they are the ones who run the executive branch…there is some shadowy sinister force that is keeping them from doing that, which is absurd, but that is the political narrative." (25:00, Shane Harris)

3. Allies and the Fraying World Order: Foreign Voices at the Forum (27:14–47:04)

Foreign Representation:

• With Trump administration officials absent, foreign (especially ex-officials) voices took center stage. The panel highlights:
  • Disquiet over Gaza and impacts on US soft power (reported by the former Pakistani foreign minister).
  • A widespread sense that the “liberal international order” is ending: "It's the end of an era and we don't know what's coming next." (30:09)
  • The US Senate’s rescissions package severely slashing contributions to the UN system, marking a watershed in multilateral disengagement (29:03–30:01).

Allies’ Dilemmas:

• Allies are increasingly anxious about US reliability, especially regarding intelligence sharing, personnel politicization, and the shift towards bilateralism.
• The panel points out the Biden administration’s residual multilateral commitment is giving way to more “pro-unilateral” US action—even on sanctions and technology controls (43:26–44:46).

Notable Quotes:

• "I think what you are seeing...is their attempt to grapple with a world in which the liberal international order, such as they knew it...really no longer exists.” (29:03, Mark Goldberg)
• “Are the allies actually going to be the ones that start pulling back and saying, this thing is not working with you guys right now? We are nervous. We don't think you're good partners, and we got a problem here on the intelligence front.” (41:46, Shane Harris)

4. The AI Everywhere Era: Ubiquity, Anxiety, and Gaps (48:05–58:19)

AI as the Dominant Theme:

• Nearly every panel featured artificial intelligence, sometimes to the point of banality.
• Alex Ward critiques the overbreadth:
  • “A, if AI is everything, then AI is nothing, right?... I always find AI conversations to be quite impenetrable because they always end up being like, X sector is going to be changed forever by AI. How? Well, in every way. Well, okay, well that's not specific.” (50:11, Alex Ward)
• The panel compares the AI craze to previous waves—cyber, “E-government”—with the difference that AI underpins a new level of strategic anxiety, especially vis-à-vis China.

AI, Great Power Competition, and the Developing World:

• US policy is laser-focused on restricting AI’s spread to “friendly” democracies, with little consideration of broader technology diffusion. Mark raises the comparison to the electric vehicle industry: China’s more accessible, “good enough” versions may win global markets and loyalties.

• “If say, the United States is pursuing AI at the expense of all others, and China develops an AI in this race that is more widely accessible … who really wins in that situation?... The entity that does that will, I think, win the…global AI race.” (58:23, Mark Goldberg)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Dan Coats' legendary 2017 Aspen moment:
  “He makes no attempt to act like he knew in advance about this. He goes, ‘come again?’ And the audience just erupts in laughter. And then he says, ‘well, that’s going to be special.’” (10:48, Shane Harris)
• On Aspen’s real character:
  “This is a very well heeled, respectful kind of environment. And it’s just like, I think they were just trolling by pulling these people out. It’s really a shame.” (16:02–16:49, Shane Harris)
• On the “deep state” trope:
  “They look at the Aspen Security Forum and say this is like the Deep State gathering in the mountains.” (25:00, Shane Harris)
• Industry and Diplomacy:
  "This is immensely industry heavy...deals could have been, like, crafted under the tent, you know, in the shadow of these mountains. (20:09, Alex Ward)
• On AI as the New “Hotness:”
  “AI is the new hotness. Maybe next year will be like AI and global, global competition. I don’t know. But like this is the thing they want to talk about.” (51:45, Alex Ward)
• On presidential oddness (object lesson):
  “Presidents are deeply weird people. They are so weird… Thomas Jefferson let a bird eat food out of his own mouth.” (65:45, Alex Ward)

Timestamps of Important Segments

• Intro and context: 01:11–03:15
• Trump administration’s last-minute Aspen pullout: 05:35–17:34
• Aspen as forum for establishment GOP foreign policy: 17:34–23:02
• The “deep state” as political narrative: 23:02–25:10
• Foreign officials’ perspectives & US disengagement: 27:14–38:44
• Mechanisms for international cooperation, multilateralism in crisis: 38:44–47:04
• “Third way” and regional hedging in Europe/Asia: 47:04–48:05
• AI: Ubiquity, anxiety, industry focus: 48:05–58:19
• AI, developing world, and the next phase of competition: 58:19–60:39
• Object lessons (personal recommendations and offbeat facts): 60:58–67:54

Tone & Language

The episode is insightful but casual, full of insider references, humor, and the panelists’ palpable camaraderie. Panel responses are witty and candid, often delivering sharp critiques or self-effacing asides about the “foreign policy blob” and their own roles as elite participants.

Usefulness for Non-Listeners

This summary lays out the substance and feel of the episode, from the insight into great-power competition and multilateral decline to the behind-the-scenes ramifications of the Trump administration’s actions. It highlights both the major themes of current security debate and the ways elite gatherings such as Aspen both reflect and advance those conversations—even, or especially, in moments of government disengagement.