Rational Security – “The Midnight Train to Ukraine” Edition

Podcast: Rational Security (Lawfare Institute)
Host: Scott R. Anderson
Guests: Benjamin Wittes (Editor-in-Chief, Lawfare; Co-host Emeritus), Nastya Lapatina (Lawfare Ukraine Fellow, Kyiv-based journalist)
Date: February 12, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode centers on Benjamin Wittes’s recent two-week trip to Ukraine, with a deep dive into the current humanitarian, political, and military conditions amid Russia’s continuing invasion. Wittes and Ukraine Fellow Nastya Lapatina, joining in from Kyiv, offer first-hand insights on the impact of Russia’s winter campaign against Ukraine’s energy grid, the state of battlefield attrition and peace negotiations (particularly against the backdrop of U.S. electoral politics), and the evolution of drone warfare as witnessed on the ground.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Living Through the Winter Energy Crisis in Ukraine

[06:27–23:35]

The State of Play

• Russia’s campaign: For the third winter in a row, Russian forces have waged persistent and increasingly sophisticated attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, aiming to inflict suffering and sow instability among civilians.
• Impact in Kyiv: Following the destruction of one of Kyiv’s three main power plants (“basically completely destroyed”), large swaths of the city—especially the left bank—have lost heat and power during temperatures dipping below –25°C (–13°F).
  • Nastya Lapatina:

    “This is just abnormal... at a time when temperatures are below zero Fahrenheit, hundreds of thousands of people don’t have any heating in their homes... No utilities available at your apartment.” [08:10]

• Infrastructure vulnerability: Ukraine’s highly centralized, Soviet-era heating and electrical systems make large regions dependent on a few key plants. Their destruction triggers cascading effects—loss of heat leads to frozen pipes, which results in no water, further exacerbating civilian suffering.
• Air defense struggles: Ukraine’s air defenses rely heavily on U.S.-provided Patriot systems, always in short supply. Russian attacks combine swarms of drones with ballistic missiles, overwhelming these defenses.
  • Lapatina:

    “You basically never see all of the drones and all of the missiles being shot down... 5, 6, 7, 10 ballistic missiles get through and those wreak really significant damage.” [12:26]

Government Response (or Lack Thereof)

• Failures in preparation: Critique of Kyiv authorities for not investing in distributed, resilient energy sources (like co-generation/mini power plants) and for an insufficient rollout of protective structures over energy sites.
  • “Kyiv has the biggest city budget in the country... and it just failed to do that.” [15:30]
• Combination of factors: The present crisis is described as a “perfect storm”—Russian attacks, extreme weather, and domestic governance/corruption issues converging.

Underreported Human Suffering

• Wittes’s observations:

  “When you go there, it’s actually much worse than anything you expected... hundreds of apartment buildings... all dark with occasional lights in windows. It reminded me of those pictures of North Korea and South Korea at night.” [17:07]

• Psychological toll:

  “Almost constantly being cold ... what that does to you and your mental health and your body and your productivity...” [21:20]

• Public resilience: The mythos of Ukrainian “resilience” may mask real suffering; there’s a tendency to understate hardships and shift talk of suffering away from oneself.

2. The War of Attrition and Strategic Dynamics

[23:35–33:14]

Asymmetry in Attrition

• Russia: Suffers primarily military casualties and economic sanctions; its elites remain insulated (e.g., conscription falls mostly on ethnic minorities and distant provinces, not Moscow elites).
  • Lapatina:

    “If you just go and put in some sort of street in central Moscow and see... it just fills me with rage... life completely as normal.” [25:59]

• Ukraine: Civilian suffering is more broadly felt due to government accountability and lack of an “under-caste.”
• Host (Scott Anderson):

  “Who has the lower pain tolerance? And then they cave first. And that’s what ends the war of attrition...” [24:13]

Need for Internal Resiliency

• The Western focus has been on defense tech (weapons, drones), but this crisis reveals the critical importance of resilient infrastructure for societal endurance.
  • Wittes:

    “There also needs to be this element of building resiliency for the broader public if they’re going to be able to hold out long enough to win or come out on top of... the next conflict Russia may be involved in.” [28:39]

3. On-the-Ground Impressions From Kharkiv and the Front Line

[35:08–44:07]

• Kharkiv as a case study: Close to—but not at—the front; a city where the “war is there, but you are not at the war.”
• Nature of the front: Both sides face major manpower shortages and attritional stasis—“these are measured in feet at a time, meters... [with the Russians] expending just enormous numbers of people to get this done.” [38:47]
• Drones as force multipliers: Both sides have rapidly adopted ground and aerial drones, changing the face of logistics, surveillance, and attack (future segment elaborates).

4. The State of Peace Negotiations

[44:07–62:13]

Talks Stalled, but Not Useless

• Negotiations in Abu Dhabi: Lapatina, “as a journalist, I kind of hate covering the peace negotiations because ... it’s a lot of nothing.” [44:26]
• Why talks matter: Even if a breakthrough seems far off, continuous negotiation builds groundwork and clarifies the positions of all parties.

  • “The fact that the negotiations are ongoing... is ultimately a net positive.” [44:43]

The Hardest Issues

• Territory: Russia demands Ukraine abandon its remaining part of Donetsk region (the “fortress belt”); Ukraine holds this is a red line—morally and militarily, as that area is a springboard for further Russian advances.
  • Lapatina:

    “The proposition that Ukraine could agree to just give up that land voluntarily is really preposterous... strategically, it would be a huge mistake.” [46:45]

• Internal political constraints: Any peace involving territorial concessions would require a national referendum—raising the question of how to instruct “thousands of really angry, really tired, armed men that they have to leave their positions and that their unit mates died for nothing.” [49:54]

The U.S. Role and Midterm Politics

• Host (Anderson):

  “Trump’s actually, like, in a little bit of a difficult position... the party over whom he has the leverage that’s easiest to exercise is the Ukrainians... But it’s also the side that exerting that pressure comes with the domestic political costs.” [52:09]

• Mutual awareness: Both Ukraine and Russia are watching U.S. midterms closely, shaping their negotiating stances around impending political shifts.
  • Wittes:

    “It is amazing how often you hear the term midterm elections in Kyiv.” [54:08]

The Ukrainian Diplomatic Game

• A master class in weak-hand diplomacy:

  “I’m not sure I’ve ever seen diplomacy with a weaker hand played better than what they have managed to do over the past year in Washington and on the phone with Washington.” [57:07]

• Cycle of crisis and management: Trump makes provocative moves or threats, Ukraine's diplomatic team manages, mitigates, and maintains support (and occasionally secures key wins, such as relaxation on use of certain weapons).

5. The Drone Revolution in Ukraine

[62:13–74:59]

The New Face of Warfare

• Drone School: A unique feature—civilians in Ukraine can enroll in military-run drone school, reflecting a strategy of broad-based preparation.
  • Wittes:

    “If you want to sign up for drone school, whether you’re a civilian or military, you can just sign up and go spend a week and they will teach you how to fly POV kamikaze drones... They’re not going to be civilians forever.” [63:23]

• Rapid innovation: Drones have mostly replaced artillery in many roles; the pace of innovation is “weeks, not years,” with new models and counter-countermeasures constantly evolving.

  • “Life cycle in which these things are usable is extremely short... The frontline units have to be cooperating with and talking to the developers in real time.” [67:20]

Offense and Defense—And Countermeasures

• Both Russia and Ukraine iterate quickly on both drones and anti-drone technologies: from simple netting strung over roads in Kharkiv to advanced electronic warfare, to AI and autonomy as a response to signal jamming.

  • Wittes:

    “Autonomy is coming and... if you can interrupt communications links... you can solve that problem by programming the destination and releasing it and not having to communicate with it after that.” [71:52]

• Host (Anderson):

  “It’s a fascinating topic. It’s going to be with us for a long time.” [74:59]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Nastya Lapatina on energy collapse:

  “It is not okay that the entire capital city of Kyiv relies on three huge, very old Soviet era, basically falling apart power plants. It’s just not a clever way to power a city.” [14:33]

• Benjamin Wittes on the visual toll of blackouts:

  “It reminded me of those pictures of North Korea and South Korea at night...” [17:35]

• Wittes on the attrition dilemma:

  “Both sides feel a little bit... demoralized. The Ukrainian side because their territory—they are losing slowly... and the Russian side because they’re spending tens and tens of thousands of people to get relatively small gains.” [39:24]

• Lapatina on negotiations:

  “You’re going to be telling thousands of really angry, really tired, armed men that they have to leave their positions... Whether that is possible or not is an open question.” [49:44]

• Wittes on Ukrainian diplomacy:

  “I’m not sure I’ve ever seen diplomacy with a weaker hand played better than what they have managed... over the past year in Washington and on the phone with Washington.” [57:07]

• On drones and autonomy:

  “The autonomous weapons, human-in-the-loop crowd is going to lose this debate... If you can interrupt communications links... you’re just going to do that.” [71:52]

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Time | Segment | |----------|------------------------------------------------------------------| | 06:27 | Nastya Lapatina describes the winter energy crisis in Kyiv | | 17:07 | Ben Wittes’s observations from recent Ukraine visit | | 23:35 | Strategic analysis: war of attrition & asymmetry | | 26:54 | Differential impact on Russian vs. Ukrainian society | | 35:08 | The state of the front and living near (but not at) the war | | 44:26 | Peace negotiations: stasis, territory, and U.S. politics | | 52:09 | Trump administration’s timeline and leverage | | 57:07 | How Kyiv’s diplomats manage crisis diplomacy | | 62:13 | Drones: military innovation and civilian involvement | | 71:52 | Evolving countermeasures, autonomy in drone warfare |

Object Lessons (Closing)

• Kyiv Hipster-Military Brands: Wittes shares his acquisition of socially loaded Ukrainian T-shirts mocking Russian propaganda (e.g., “Ukrainsky slid” – trace of Ukrainians, “Kyivskyi rezhym” – Kyiv regime, “Zakhidnyi kurator” – Western handler) [76:15].
• Mutual Fundraiser: Wittes and Lapatina describe their Substack-based fundraising for battery backup units, blankets, and generators for families in Kyiv affected by the energy crisis. Details to be found in show notes (“If you want to help... yes, give us your money. We need a lot of it.” – Lapatina, [79:23]).
• Recommendations: CSIS recent reports and “The Counteroffensive” (Tim Mak) cited as excellent coverage for the ongoing human aspect of the war.

Tone and Final Thoughts

The episode is a blend of first-person narrative, policy dissection, and darkly humorous asides—a hallmark of Rational Security’s style. Lapatina offers palpable frustration and urgency about Ukrainian governmental failings and the personal toll of war, while Wittes brings controlled, observational analysis, and the host, Anderson, threads the discussion with contextual questions shaped by American policy concerns and a sharp eye to the interplay of domestic and international politics.

For listeners:
This episode offers in-depth, ground-level insights into the humanitarian and military realities in Ukraine as the war enters another year, the inertia and risks of the ongoing peace process, and the technological evolution of battlefield tactics. It’s essential listening for understanding both the stakes inside Ukraine and the pressures shaping policy decisions in Washington and Moscow.