Rational Security

Episode: “No Taxation Without Sledding Representation” Edition

Date: January 8, 2025
Host: Scott R. Anderson (Lawfare)
Panelists: Molly Reynolds, Kevin Fraser

Episode Overview

The first Rational Security episode of 2025 brings together Scott R. Anderson, Molly Reynolds, and Kevin Fraser, navigating both the literal and political storms of Washington, D.C. They discuss the opening drama of the 119th Congress under a Republican trifecta, the peaceful (and telling) certification of President Trump’s return to the White House on January 6th, and a pair of worrying incidents involving undersea telecommunications cables—potentially deliberate acts by Russia and China. The episode is anchored in the panel's wry humor, close attention to Congressional process, and a somber undercurrent about challenges to U.S. governance and international security.

Main Topics and Key Insights

1. Congressional Chaos: The 119th Congress Begins

[03:39-24:58]

• House and Senate Under Narrow GOP Control
  • Republicans control all of Congress and the presidency, but by fine margins.
  • Speaker Mike Johnson barely survived his election to the speakership, reflecting deep fractures in the GOP (notably the Freedom Caucus and MAGA-aligned factions).
• Funding Bill and Unexpected Influence
  • End-of-year appropriations drama carried over from 118th Congress. A short-term funding bill, with add-ons for agriculture and disaster relief, was nearly torpedoed at the last moment after interventions by President-elect Trump and Elon Musk.
  • Molly Reynolds:

    “Despite the fact that, number one, Donald Trump is not actually yet the president again and Elon Musk is not at all an elected member of the US Government, they sort of weighed in…” (07:40)

  • Musk's intervention moved at "internet speed," and Trump’s debt ceiling demand briefly raised hopes (and fears) of a quick fix, before the package was pared down.
• Limits of Trump (and Musk) as Shadow Leaders
  • GOP divisions run deep; Trump demands, but doesn’t always hold sway—raising questions about his influence in this new term.
  • Molly Reynolds points out:

    “This is all a reminder that like unified government, particularly with narrow majorities, is not a walk in the park. And having President Elect Trump, who does not always stake out a position and maintain it, is not always willing to use whatever political capital he has to actually try and drive to agreement... It’s not clear that that's going to help them resolve some of these disagreements.” (14:24)

  • The panel predicts future “performative victories” may trump real policy progress in Congress.

2. January 6th, Four Years Later: Calm Returns

[24:58-42:10]

• The Peaceful Joint Session
  • Congress certified the Electoral College results with “no drama, no objections” as President Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance were officially declared victors.
• Electoral Count Reform Act (ECRA) Works
  • Changes post-2021 increased objection thresholds, narrowed grounds for challenge, and smoothed procedures.
  • Molly Reynolds:

    “What we saw on the 6th was what we've seen in most years ... just a very straightforward kind of streamlined, ceremonial, no drama process.” (26:07)

• Why Democrats Didn’t Push 14th Amendment Disqualification
  • Despite Supreme Court’s decision in Anderson v. Trump leaving open the possibility, not a single Democrat forced a vote over Trump’s constitutional eligibility (Section 3, 14th Amendment).
  • Key reasons: political optics, weak explainability, risk of being labeled hypocrites after opposing GOP efforts in 2021, and the downside of creating precedents they might later regret.
  • Kevin Fraser:

    “This isn't the sort of thing that would go viral on TikTok... there's the explainability component, there's the sore loser component...” (33:48)

• Institutional Erosion and Trump’s Outsized Influence
  • Congress was reluctant to even “stand up for itself” institutionally.
  • Trump’s continuous presence post-defeat is highly atypical.
  • Molly Reynolds:

    "He did not disappear from the political scene after losing a presidential election, which is really atypical for a contemporary US president.” (41:29)

3. Maritime Mystery: Undersea Cable Sabotage and International Law

[42:49-61:42]

• Recent Incidents: Finland and Taiwan
  • Multiple undersea cable breaks—Finland apprehends a Russian “shadow fleet” ship (Eagle S), while Taiwan loses a cable allegedly due to a Chinese-operated vessel.
  • These breaks, while not unprecedented (100–150 per year, usually accidental), appear increasingly deliberate and strategic.
  • Kevin Fraser:

    “We’re seeing this record really start to grow of air quotes accidents occurring in very strategic locations where both Russia and China have a lot of geopolitical interests...” (45:00)

• Escalating Legal and Security Stakes
  • Finland acted unusually decisively, seizing the ship inside its territorial waters; charges include aggravated interference with communications.
  • Complexities arise due to “flags of convenience” (ships registered in third countries, crewed by multinationals).
• The Ancient Law of the Sea & Self Help
  • The international legal regime (notably the creaky 1884 convention) lags current realities; states (especially smaller ones like Finland and its Baltic neighbors) are pushing definitions and acting more assertively.
  • Kevin Fraser:

    “We’re starting to see nations be more aggressive in their interpretation of the international laws... really this emphasis on necessity and the custom of necessity to be able to take actions when critical infrastructure is being interfered with.” (51:04)

• Testing Gray Zones: Russia, China, and U.S. Alliances
  • Analysts believe these “gray area” incidents—deliberate, deniable, inflicting limited but real economic/disruptive harm—are probes to gauge response and set future precedents, especially with Taiwan as a flashpoint.
  • U.S. response is complicated—aggressive action is hard to justify legally/politically for “commercial” sabotage, but the threat to critical infrastructure is real.
• Collective Self Help and Deterrence
  • The need for greater information sharing and punitive domestic laws is clear. Attribution, monitoring, and direct action are likely to become more important than old treaties.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Sledding Rights and Lawfare

  • Molly Reynolds jokes about Capitol sledding being a “lawfare issue”:

    “It turns out sledding in D.C. itself, a lawfare issue.” (02:31)

• On Internal Divisions

  • Molly Reynolds:

    “They will be, for lack of a better way to put this, shooting with live bullets in a way that they haven't been up till now. And that can be clarifying...” (14:00)

• On the New Era of Political Influence

  • Molly Reynolds:

    “At some point, there will be a Trump-Musk breakup, because... Trump is a person who does not like to be upstaged.” (19:45)

  • Further:

    “[Musk] is, you know, is the Internet. So there was some amount of that whole thing that happened before Christmas happened very fast, in fact, maybe even a little bit faster than we were used to in the previous Trump administration.” (20:51)

• On the Parliamentary Precedent Trap

  • Scott R. Anderson reflects on precedent:

    “It’s a weird game when you have a body establishing its own precedents, even on narrow majorities that still are treated as precedential. But that's the world Congress lives in.” (40:08–41:13)

• On Undersea Cables: Real-World Geopolitics

  • Kevin Fraser:

    “All it takes is getting a 70,000 pound crude oil tanker from Russia, having it drag its anchor for about 60 miles and then boom, you've wiped out a couple cables.” (53:45)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Intro, blizzard chatter, sledding as a lawfare issue: [00:28–03:01]
• Congressional drama and funding bill chaos: [03:39–21:58]
• Musk and Trump as outside-influencers: [18:55–23:02]
• GOP divisions, debt ceiling politics: [12:20–16:42]
• January 6th joint session, ECRA effect: [24:58–27:58]
• Why no Democratic 14th Amendment objection?: [27:58–40:08]
• Institutional strength + Trump’s political durability: [41:13–42:49]
• Undersea cables—the Baltic and Taiwan incidents: [42:49–53:12]
• Legal frameworks & self-help efforts: [53:12–61:42]

Memorable Exchange

On historic precedent and Grover Cleveland:

• Scott: “Are you saying Grover Cleveland is not a contemporary president?” (42:10)
• Molly: “I am comfortable asserting confidently that we should not characterize Grover Cleveland as a contemporary American president.” (42:16)
• Scott: “Look, the Grover hive is coming for your mentions…” (42:49)

Closing: Object Lessons [61:42–68:44]

• Molly’s Family Time Capsule: End-of-year tradition documenting each member’s favorites in several categories. (“A very, very fun and low effort tradition.”) (61:54–64:16)
• Scott’s Cocktail Recipe: The “Little Palermo”—Averna, coffee, and brandy for an espresso martini alternative. (64:45–66:31)
• Kevin’s Book Pick: End Times by Peter Turchin—“a theory of everything that focuses on the disruptive effects of what he refers to as elite overproduction.” (66:48–68:33)

Takeaways

• The 119th Congress begins in chaos, with Trump and Elon Musk’s influence unsettling already narrow GOP majorities.
• The country (so far) has avoided a repeat of January 6th, aided by reforms and a shared political weariness, but institutional weaknesses and precedential unease remain.
• International adversaries are increasingly willing to test Western resolve through ambiguous, deniable attacks on critical infrastructure—Finland and Taiwan’s cable incidents represent a new front in great-power competition.
• Legislative and legal frameworks struggle to keep up with security threats, and Congress’s willingness to use its own powers is in decline.

This episode serves as a vivid snapshot of the challenges facing American governance and international security at the dawn of 2025—leavened by the hosts' dry humor, acute analysis, and cocktail recipes for turbulent times.