Rational Security – “Out of the Twenty-Twenty-Fourno, Into the Fire” Edition

Podcast: Rational Security (The Lawfare Institute)
Date: January 1, 2025
Hosts: Scott R. Anderson, Quinta Jurecic, Alan Rozenshtein

Episode Overview

This special edition of Rational Security marks the podcast’s celebratory end-of-year episode, featuring the return of co-hosts Quinta Jurecic and Alan Rozenshtein alongside regular host Scott R. Anderson. Rather than covering the week's news, the team fields an array of listener-submitted questions spanning the globe and key national security issues. Topics include US alliances in Syria, the mechanics of the TikTok ban, overlooked national security crises, the state of crypto sanctions, underrated threats to the US, and the future of the US dollar, as well as lighter “object lesson” recommendations as the team closes out 2024.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. Balancing US Alliances and Commitments in Syria

(06:07 – 12:53)

• Listener Q: How should the US balance its alliances with Turkey, the Kurds, and Israel in light of recent events in Syria—a region still fractured and unstable?
• Scott: The situation is extremely complex with competing interests. The US, Turkey, Kurds, Israel, and others have overlapping and sometimes contradictory goals. Efforts to produce a secular, democratic Syria are unrealistic in the short term. Instead, a confederational or heavy local autonomy arrangement encompassing various communities may be more feasible, even though anything close to liberal democracy is unlikely in the near future.
  • Notable Quote: “These are miraculous arrangements where they arise, but... rest upon the slow development of a lot of political habits. It’s not just about setting up the right institutions.” (10:10, Scott)
• Inside Joke: The “arm the moderate rebels” quip highlights the challenge of defining and supporting groups in the Syrian opposition.
  • Notable Quote: "If you find one, you arm that guy." (11:07, Scott)
• Quinta: Recommends Arash Azizi's Atlantic piece for a nuanced view of Syrian opposition.

2. How Could a US TikTok Ban Be Enforced?

(12:53 – 19:35)

• Listener Q: How would a TikTok ban really work, given the technical limitations and prevalence of the app?
• Alan: It’s not an absolute ban. The law targets app stores (Apple, Google) and cloud service providers (like Oracle). Users with TikTok already installed will lose access to updates; new downloads will be blocked via the app stores. TikTok could try to migrate servers abroad, which is technically challenging and may cause slower service. Over time, user experience will degrade, and, combined with platform competition, network effects will erode TikTok’s dominance.
  • Notable Quote: “If you really want to go and watch communist Chinese propaganda on TikTok, you can still do it… But I think the hope is it’ll go from being the dominant short form video platform to a much less dominant one.” (18:28, Alan)
• Scott: Policy goals are about limiting systemic risk—if "a couple thousand" stubborn users stick around, that doesn't undercut the main objective.
  • Notable Quote: “You don’t need to absolutely ban TikTok...if a couple thousand really committed users still have access…it doesn’t have the same systemic risk.” (19:00, Scott)

3. Most Underrated National Security Stories of the Year

(21:21 – 26:29)

• Quinta’s Pick: Climate change is both underdiscussed and fundamental to national security. Though technological progress and market incentives (e.g., via the Inflation Reduction Act) give hope, political will—especially given global rightward shifts—remains uncertain.
  • Notable Quote: “I would be feeling a lot more optimistic about this if the incoming crop of leaders around the world were committed to treating climate as a serious issue.” (25:45, Quinta)
• Alan: Emphasizes climate-driven migration as a destabilizer.
  • Notable Quote: “There are a few things more destabilizing…than having 10 million, let alone 100 million, let alone 500 million people wandering the world trying to escape droughts and hurricanes.” (26:54, Alan)
• Scott: National security and other threats are not exclusive.
  • Notable Quote: “Just because something is a national security threat doesn’t mean it can also be a threat to other things as well.” (28:37, Scott)

4. Fifth Circuit’s Tornado Cash Ruling: Crypto, Sanctions, and Legal Complexity

(29:04 – 36:04)

• Listener Q: Should the logic of the recent Tornado Cash sanctions case extend to the entire Ethereum ecosystem?
• Scott: The ruling’s distinction (that the sanctioned crypto mixer isn’t “property” or a “person”) is flawed and misreads key statutes. The heart of sanctions law is about targeting transactions—mixers like Tornado Cash facilitate transactions, so they're clearly sanctionable. The decision may not survive further appellate review.
  • Notable Quote: “If the US government wanted to sanction throwing gold bars to each other through the air, I think they could do that too, because that’s a means of a transaction.” (33:38, Scott)
• Alan: Some influential voices welcome the decision, but the utility of such a win for the crypto industry is questionable.
• Scott: It’s likely Treasury/DOJ will challenge the ruling at higher levels, unless overruled for political reasons in a second Trump term.

5. Underrated Threats to the US for the Remainder of the Decade

(40:04 – 48:01)

• Alan: Pandemics are the clear winner for underrated threat status—preparation is cost-effective, but both parties are politically disincentivized to prioritize it. COVID-19 wasn’t as bad as a pandemic could be; far worse is possible.
  • Notable Quote: “The ROI on preparedness for pandemics is… probably higher than almost anything else we could do.” (41:21, Alan)
• Quinta: Political and vigilante violence, particularly on the right, remains insufficiently addressed by federal law enforcement and is being normalized by powerful media and political voices. The risk is not a civil war, but persistent, low-level political violence.
  • Notable Quote: “We’re in a moment of real distrust of institutions among Americans on the right, but also…across the board…[Violence as a solution]—that’s bad.” (47:32, Quinta)
• Scott: Taiwan. The US policy of “strategic ambiguity” has become dangerously autopilot as China builds military capacity to re-integrate Taiwan by 2027. Even a “successful” US defense of Taiwan would have catastrophic costs for all involved.
  • Notable Quote: “Even in a situation where the US succeeds at defending Taiwan, it’s absolutely catastrophic for everyone involved…Levels of US casualties at a daily pace that rival and surpass that of World War II…” (48:58, Scott)

6. First Major National Security Misstep of Trump’s Second Term—Predictions

(51:54 – 57:37)

• Scott: The administration might embrace the Fifth Circuit’s pro-crypto ruling early on, to its own eventual detriment, due to pressure from pro-crypto voices.
• Quinta: The breadth of possible missteps is vast, from foreign policy failures (e.g., Syria) to obscure but crucial domestic programs being cut—the surprise is part of the Trump era.
  • Notable Quote: “There’s just no way to know…sometimes crises were created, sometimes there were crises that would have happened anyway but were handled in bizarre and erratic ways.” (55:14, Quinta)
• Alan: Tariffs will likely be a classic “misstep”—confused, poorly designed, and clearly not achieving any coherent objective, while also harming consumers. Deportations under Trump, while more intentional, will also likely be handled badly.
  • Notable Quote: “It’s still completely unclear to me what we’re trying to accomplish [with tariffs].” (56:04, Alan)

7. The BRICS Bloc, “De-Dollarization,” and US Economic Power

(57:46 – 65:05)

• Listener Q: How serious is the threat of BRICS nations supplanting the US Dollar with an alternative reserve currency—and what would that mean for US security?
• Scott: There is slow movement away from the USD and Euro for some reserve holdings, but the inertia of existing systems, global trust in US institutions, and the coordination problems among BRICS make a major shift very unlikely anytime soon. The real risk would come from a more fragmented, regionalized world economy, but that’s likely far off (50-100 years).
  • Notable Quote: “[BRICS creating a global reserve currency]… would be crippling to them economically… It’s just not something a bunch of governments can decide to just hop over.” (59:18, Scott)
• Alan: Adds skepticism—China is the only plausible non-US challenger, but other BRICS members have little reason to shift reserves to Chinese control.
  • Notable Quote: “I am very skeptical that there’s any plausible near- or even medium-term competitor to the United States.” (63:39, Alan)
• Book Recommendation: Bucking the Buck by Daniel McDowell for an empirical deep-dive into this issue.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Alan (on US preparedness for pandemics, 41:21): "The ROI on preparedness for pandemics is ... probably higher than almost anything else we could do."
• Scott (about Taiwan, 48:58): "Even in a situation where the United States succeeds at defending Taiwan, it’s absolutely catastrophic for everyone involved."
• Quinta (on political violence, 47:32): "We’re in a moment of real distrust of institutions among Americans ... [Violence as a solution]—that’s bad."
• Scott (on uncertainty under Trump, 55:14): "There’s just no way to know ... sometimes crises were created, sometimes there were crises that would have happened anyway but were handled in bizarre and erratic ways."
• Alan (on tariffs, 56:04): "With tariffs, it’s still completely unclear to me what we’re trying to accomplish ... None of it follows. So it’s just gonna suck so hard."

Object Lessons & Listener Recommendations

(66:06 – 75:00)

Listeners shared recommended books, podcasts, and games relevant to national security. Highlights include:

• Bury Me My Love (game, Middle East/refugee experience)
• We the Revolution (game, legal and historical complexity)
• Not For Broadcast (game, censorship and media)
• Popular Front podcast (underreported conflicts)
• It Did Happen Here podcast (anti-racist skinhead movement in 1980s Portland)
• The Queen of Cuba by Peter Lapp (spy story of Ana Montes)
• President’s Book of Secrets by David Priess (history of the President’s Daily Brief)
• FBI: True (docuseries)
• How to Hide an Empire by Daniel Immerwahr (US history overseas)
• Ashley’s War by Gayle Tzemach Lemmon (female US soldiers in Afghanistan)

Final Thoughts

The hosts close by reflecting on the generally dark tone of both questions and answers, but look ahead to bringing more analysis—and hopefully optimism—into 2025. Listeners are encouraged to keep sending questions and recommendations, subscribe, and support Lawfare for more programming in the new year.

Podcast timestamps indicated in (MM:SS) format. All advertisements and sponsor segments have been omitted from the summary.