Rational Security: “Scare Them When They’re Young” Edition (January 15, 2026)

Podcast by The Lawfare Institute
Host: Scott R. Anderson
Guests: Tyler McBrien, Michael Feinberg, Ari Tapatabai

Overview

This episode of Rational Security dives into a turbulent week in national security news, covering three major topics: the surging domestic unrest in Iran and its international ramifications; controversy and violence surrounding ICE’s immigration enforcement; and the resurfacing of U.S. ambitions over Greenland, with a sharp focus on what is driving the Trump administration’s actions and what these mean for America’s alliances. The tone is engaged, analytical, and often darkly humorous as the hosts debate policy, historical parallels, and the consequences of both domestic and foreign U.S. actions.

1. Children’s Lessons, Xenomorph Stuffed Animals, and the Art of Inoculation ([00:44–03:20])

Key Moments and Quotes:

• The episode opens with light banter on parenting, bedtime routines, and sharing humorous stories about book lights and children's plush toys.
• Ari Tapatabai: “If you scare them when they're young, they become inoculated.” ([03:10])
  • A tongue-in-cheek moment that sets the tone and gives the episode its title.

2. Topic One: Iran’s Cycle of Unrest and U.S. Policy Dilemmas ([03:57–38:14])

Background and Scope ([04:46–08:11])

• Scott R. Anderson lays out the context: Iran is facing unprecedented domestic unrest, triggered by economic collapse and compounded by the aftermath of military conflict with Israel and the United States. The regime’s crackdown is brutal, with upwards of 2,000–12,000 dead, communications down, and international uncertainty about what to do.
• Trump administration has signaled military intervention if Iran escalates repression further.

Analysis and Historical Comparison

Ari Tapatabai: What Makes These Protests Different ([08:11–14:52])

• The unrest began in Iran’s bazaars (merchant class), historically regime supporters, signaling a deeper threat.
• Protest is more widespread and violent than past uprisings (e.g., Green Movement 2009, 2022 women’s rights protests).
• Cited estimates: 20,000 arrested, thousands potentially killed, regime rapidly intensifying repression.
• U.S. (Trump) response notably stronger than in prior unrest: cessation of all negotiations until crackdowns stop.

U.S. and Allies’ Options and Dilemma ([14:52–38:14])

• Michael Feinberg: Warns of “historical echoes” (Hungary 1956, Tiananmen 1989).
  • “I am suspicious that President Trump is going to follow through with any actual assistance...we could be seeing a very unfortunate historical echo.” ([17:07])
• Concern: U.S. statements could embolden protesters, but little follow-through could lead to disaster.
• Europe’s response is notably muted—possibly “free-riding” on U.S. posturing, or uncertain without clearer information or leadership rising from the protests.
• Extensive debate on the risks of military intervention:
  • Scott R. Anderson: “Iran’s, I think, in a lot of ways, is even a harder case because...the current regime has lots of centers of gravity, lots of independent power centers, some which are very heavily armed.” ([18:09])
  • Risks range from splintering into Iraq-style chaos, to failed airstrikes with unpredictable ripple effects, to aggravating regional instability (notably with the Kurds).
• Tyler McBrien argues the "Venezuela model" could embolden Trump to escalate, with potential bipartisan/neoconservative acceptance for aggressive Iran action ([29:49]), but Feinberg pushes back:
  • “The actions in Venezuela...had a very defined objective...We're talking potentially about destabilizing even more what has for the past 50 years or so been a real tinderbox.” ([32:33])
• Reports of U.S. military families evacuating regional bases (Qatar), possibly signposting imminent action.
• Universal agreement: There’s no “good” intervention option; the regime’s collapse could spawn instability far beyond Iran’s borders.

3. Topic Two: ICE, Violence, and the Abandonment of Restraint ([39:19–56:52])

The Minneapolis ICE Shooting ([39:19–47:44])

• Case examined: ICE agent Jonathan Ross shot and killed Minneapolis driver Renee Good, captured on video showing questionable justification for lethal force.
• Federal officials label the victim a “domestic terrorist,” fueling a narrative criticized by panelists as false and inflammatory.
• Michael Feinberg: “There's a real key difference between the two situations, which is that the actions in Venezuela...had a very defined objective.” ([32:33]) (refers to Iran/Venezuela comparison, but approach resonates here: agency without clear objectives is dangerous.)
• Dissection of qualified immunity, public trust in law enforcement, and how ICE’s actions jeopardize broader law enforcement legitimacy:
  • “By acting with impunity, by inflicting violence when violence is not necessary, ICE is inadvertently adding to the arguments against qualified immunity.” ([44:27])
• Detriment to public cooperation and law enforcement effectiveness, especially within marginalized communities.

The “Abolish ICE” Debate and Institutional Rot ([51:21–56:52])

• Polling shows public support for abolishing ICE at all-time highs.
• Debate: Does ICE’s systematic abuse mean it should no longer be part of the broader “law enforcement” umbrella?
• Feinberg: “If you live in a house for a long enough time at a certain point as it has problems, you need to decide do you fix these problems or is the structural rot deep enough that it makes more sense to do a tear down and rebuild?” ([54:20])
• Even traditional law enforcement supporters consider whether ICE needs to be replaced entirely.

4. Topic Three: Greenland—Annexation Fantasies, NATO Cracks, and “Making the Map Bigger” ([56:52–72:52])

The Crisis Resurfaces

• U.S. (Trump administration) reopens its pursuit of Greenland, with threats of military acquisition and diplomatic pressure on Denmark and Greenland’s self-governing leadership.
• Tyler McBrien: “It's not clear what Trump wants other than to make [the] map bigger...if we want its minerals, great, they're for sale. You know, it's unclear whether, you know, whether it's just the desire is a projection of power.” ([59:09])

Strategic Absurdity and Alliance Risk

• Greenalnd’s strategic value acknowledged, but panelists criticize the President’s approach as unnecessary, antagonistic, and self-defeating.
• Move is fracturing NATO, spurring allied military deployments in Greenland reminiscent of “tripwire” strategies elsewhere.
• Ari Tapatabai: “NATO structurally was not designed to tackle the threat of the United States trying to take over the territory of another member state.” ([61:25])
• Scott R. Anderson: “If you wanted to do this [acquire Greenland], you would have started that investment quietly...you pursue a honey, not a vinegar campaign.” ([63:59])
• Feinberg: “If you are one of those nations in the Indo Pacific region or really anywhere else on the globe, why on earth would you accept an overture of an alliance from the United States if you see them violating the very concept as soon as it's convenient?” ([69:40])
• Notable anecdote: Greenlander Hans Nurgard filing a police complaint in Nuuk against “Trump’s aggressive behavior” ([72:03])—illustrative of Greenlandic sentiment.

5. Object Lessons: Recommendations and Lightness ([73:15–78:10])

The hosts close the episode with their customary "object lessons," offering cultural, practical, and personal recommendations:

• Tyler McBrien:
  Recommends Way Dynamic’s album “Massive Shoe”—“every song is different and yet coherent...just an amazing album.” ([73:49])

• Michael Feinberg:
  Suggests attending the upcoming Paul Thomas Anderson retrospective at the American Film Institute in DC, especially for rarely screened early films ([74:08]).

• Scott R. Anderson:
  Endorses the “Glocusent” book light for parents reading to kids: “You do look, as I said in the intro, like you’re in some sort of post-apocalyptic wasteland or perhaps like a deep undersea explorer...” ([75:24])

• Ari Tapatabai:
  Cinema pick: Pain and Glory by Pedro Almodóvar (2019): “Beautiful. Exceptional cinematography, great acting. Highly, highly recommend it.” ([77:14])

Notable Quotes & Perspectives

• Ari Tapatabai ([03:10]): “If you scare them when they’re young, they become inoculated.”
• Michael Feinberg ([17:07]): “I fear we could be seeing a very unfortunate historical echo in what happened a long time ago.”
• Scott R. Anderson ([63:59]): “If you wanted to do this, you would have started that investment quietly and then you’d have a conversation about this two or three years now; you pursue a honey, not a vinegar campaign...”
• Feinberg ([54:20]): “If you live in a house for a long enough time...at a certain point...is the structural rot deep enough that it makes more sense to do a tear down and rebuild?”

Timestamps: Key Segments

• [00:44–03:20] – Parenting banter, episode setup, “scare them when they’re young” quote
• [03:20–08:11] – Main theme and Iran context set up
• [08:11–14:52] – In-depth on Iran’s protests and comparative analysis
• [14:52–38:14] – U.S. policy; historical consequences and analogies
• [39:19–56:52] – ICE shooting debate, law enforcement legitimacy, “abolish ICE”
• [56:52–72:52] – Greenland, U.S. ambitions, NATO, and global trust implications
• [73:15–78:10] – Object lessons (cultural/practical recommendations)

Tone and Takeaways

Rational Security remains a space for frank but nuanced debate—frequently skeptical, darkly funny, and unafraid to interrogate the purported logic behind policy decisions. This episode in particular grapples with national security as both tragedy and farce, especially as U.S. actions (and rhetoric) at home and abroad appear increasingly untethered from precedent, process, or prudence.

For listeners, this is a masterclass in unpacking complexity: historical insight, legal analysis, and genuine concern for both practical consequences and democratic values, especially in moments when leadership seems least inclined to show either.

For further details and written work, visit lawfaremedia.org