Rational Security: “Ten Years, Still Off-Key” Edition
Podcast: Rational Security – The Lawfare Institute
Date: September 17, 2025
Hosts: Scott R. Anderson, Quinta Jurecic, Alan Rozenshtein
Guests: Shane Harris, Benjamin Wittes
Overview
This special anniversary episode marks not only the 15th year of Lawfare, but also the 10th anniversary of Rational Security. Host Scott R. Anderson convenes a rotating cast of current and former co-hosts, including Shane Harris, Benjamin Wittes, Quinta Jurecic, and Alan Rozenshtein, to highlight under-discussed national security stories. The episode dives into the motivations behind recent acts of political violence, growing concerns at NATO’s eastern borders due to Russian provocations, the effectiveness and costs of the D.C. federal "crime crackdown," and the ongoing rule of law challenges in the enforcement (or lack there of) of the TikTok divestment law. The team also reflects on the Lawfare podcast’s legacy and camaraderie developed over a decade.
Anniversary Reflections and Introduction
[01:46]–[04:28]
- Multiple milestones: Lawfare’s 15th birthday, Rational Security’s 10th, and “Ratstack” 2.0 and 2.1 anniversaries.
- Reunion of former and current co-hosts (Rational Security 1.0 and 2.0 “cast”).
- Light banter about failed attempts at barbershop quartet intros, gender representation, and the logistical challenges of getting everyone back together.
Notable Quote:
"We are two Rational Security co-host shy of a barbershop quartet, which is a shame. [...] This is straight gender discrimination."
— Scott R. Anderson [01:49]
Topic 1: "The Assassination of Charlie Kirk and Young, Chronically Online Violence"
With: Shane Harris, Scott R. Anderson, Benjamin Wittes
[04:50]–[28:53]
Shane Harris: Online Subcultures, Irony, & Social Motivations
[04:50]–[11:34]
- Draws comparison between Tyler Robinson (alleged shooter of political activist Charlie Kirk) and Jack Teixeira (Discord leaker): both young, isolated, and deeply embedded in "chronically online," meme-driven communities.
- Argues these acts can be more about internet-imbued performance or nihilism ("the ultimate act of trolling") than clear political ideologies—referencing Atlantic writer Charlie Warzel’s analysis.
- Cautions against interpreting violence solely through traditional left/right frameworks:
"Describing somebody as radical left... is going to come up empty, and people are going to be frustrated by that." — Shane Harris [06:40]
Scott R. Anderson & Benjamin Wittes: Historical Parallels and Limitations of Ideological Analysis
[11:34]–[18:17]
- Anderson brings up Thomas Matthew Crooks (Trump assassination attempt) as similarly opaque in motive—hints at blurring lines between online affinity, mental illness, and iconoclastic violence.
- Wittes recalls the Reagan assassination attempt (John Hinckley Jr., who acted to impress Jodie Foster) as an older analogue of media fandom warping into violence.
"Most people don't say, 'Here is my ideology, and therefore when I pick up a gun and kill people, it's going to be the ideological opponents of my ideology,' because murder just isn't that rational." — Benjamin Wittes [16:37]
Generational Divide, Challenges for Law Enforcement, and "The Boy Crisis"
[25:12]–[28:53]
- Anderson and Harris discuss alarming stats on young men’s loneliness: 1-in-7 report no close friends; loneliness and social disconnection as contributing factors for violence, made more acute post-pandemic.
"These are the most compelling ones that jump out to me. According to their [Putnam & Reeves] statistics...one in seven young men report that they have no close friends." — Scott R. Anderson [25:33]
- Skepticism about ability of policy or law enforcement to respond meaningfully to uniquely online radicalization, especially under First Amendment constraints.
Topic 2: "Russian Drone Incursions and the Complacency of the West"
With: Benjamin Wittes, Shane Harris, Scott R. Anderson
[29:48]–[48:49]
Ben Wittes: Press and Public Indifference to Repeated Border Violations
[29:48]–[33:31]
- Criticizes feeble US media coverage of recent Russian drones entering NATO airspace over Poland and Romania.
"What if Russia was making a point of probing NATO borders multiple times per week and nobody cared?" — Benjamin Wittes [30:30]
- Raises alarm about alliance “rot,” with possible erosion of deterrence if persistent provocations go unpunished or underreported.
Shane Harris: Putin’s Tactics and the Long Game
[33:31]–[35:04]
- Notes Putin’s mastery at “constant probing and pushing” to cultivate resignation and infighting among allies.
Scott R. Anderson: Counterpoint — The State of the NATO Alliance
[35:04]–[41:18]
- Shares insight from Aspen Security Forum: some European officials feel the alliance is operationally robust, despite political divisions.
- In Poland case, US forces did not scramble jets due to “rotation schedules,” not policy inertia.
- Emphasizes the gap between operational readiness and public/media awareness.
Strategic Objectives, Gray Zone Warfare, and Long-term Risks
[41:37]–[48:52]
- Anderson & Wittes parse motivations behind Russian provocations:
- Not an imminent invasion preparation (Russia lacks the capacity).
- Rather, aim to undermine eastern NATO states’ confidence in collective defense, testing and eroding deterrence.
"If you do this repeatedly, you show these Eastern European countries that they are making a big bet on the west and the west will not come save them." — Benjamin Wittes [44:59]
- Shane Harris and Anderson ponder whether the strategy will backfire and instead facilitate further NATO unity and militarization, depending on the political context.
Topic 3: The Federal “Crime Crackdown” in D.C.: Data, Grand Juries, and Community Impact
With: Quinta Jurecic, Alan Rozenshtein, Scott R. Anderson
[54:44]–[82:16]
D.C. "Federal Surge": Overcharging, Grand Jury Nullification, and Policing Data
[54:44]–[66:13]
- Jurecic highlights a surge of federal charges, especially for low-level offenses (e.g., sandwich-throwing as “assault on a federal officer”), with a remarkable pattern: many cases either dropped or downgraded after grand juries refuse to indict.
"They filed in one day, the heaviest day, 14 cases in a single day, which is basically comparable to the earliest days of January 6th. That's a crazy amount of cases...but they're not doing great." — Quinta Jurecic [54:56]
- Discussion on the distinction between grand jury discretion and full nullification, and historical justifications for both.
Legal Questions Around Military Involvement in Law Enforcement
[66:13]–[72:17]
- Scott R. Anderson probes the legal minefield around the use of the military (Guard, federal agencies) in policing, especially potential violations of the Posse Comitatus Act.
- Jurecic reports unclear, sometimes contradictory on-the-ground evidence of military personnel engaging in arrests, but little direct impact so far on prosecutions via exclusionary rule.
Crime Data: Suppression, Trade-offs, and Geographical Distribution
[72:17]–[79:27]
- Jurecic and Asher contend it’s too early to claim the surge reduced crime; downward trends predate the operation and data is preliminary.
- Risks of “success” metrics: may reflect reduced reporting (esp. domestic violence) out of community fear — not actual declines.
"So I think we need to be careful both about how uncertain this data is and when we talk about, quote, unquote crime. What we actually mean by that?" — Quinta Jurecic [76:23]
- Rozenshtein notes the eternal debate: police presence suppresses crime, but at a cost, and "crime" in policy discourse is often code for concerns of political elites in NW D.C. while the most impacted communities are elsewhere ("overpoliced and underpoliced at the same time").
Structural Pressures on D.C.'s Policing
[79:27]–[82:16]
- Anderson highlights longstanding police shortages, overtime crises, and federal intervention as a form of budgetary triage for the city, not just politics.
Topic 4: The TikTok Law, Rule of Law, and Corporate Complicity
With: Alan Rozenshtein, Quinta Jurecic, Scott R. Anderson
[83:22]–[96:38]
- Alan recaps the (lack of) enforcement of the Congressional TikTok divestment law: White House claims a ByteDance selloff is imminent, but the law has effectively gone unenforced, further exposing Trump’s "imperial conception" of the executive and corporate America’s readiness to fold.
"I continue to just be flabbergasted that...the most experienced and sophisticated lawyers and legal counsels agreed to go along with nearly a trillion dollars of liability each on the sort of nonsense, say so of Trump." — Alan Rozenshtein [83:58]
- Jurecic: This highlights erosion of checks and balances, and a worrisome “personalist dealmaking” approach by Trump that large corporations are apparently comfortable with ("we can deal with this guy"), invoking comparisons to the early stages of fascist governance theories (Frankl’s "dual state").
- Anderson suggests TikTok’s unique structural weakness: enforcement of the law is unlikely, both due to political reversal in Congress and the tech giants' too-big-to-fail status.
Notable Quotes & Moments
-
On the meaning of violence by chronically online youth:
"You can almost read Tyler Robinson's shooting as a shitpost...the point was to make people struggle over what the meaning was and to make them confused and...say...this is part of an in-crowd, an in-group that did this."
— Shane Harris [21:05] -
On NATO’s eastern border and the indifference to Russian provocations:
"Russia is poking and poking and poking at the Western alliance and we yawn. And that's...not [just] about the Trump administration...before you get to the policy level...there's this attentional level."
— Benjamin Wittes [38:01] -
On federal law enforcement 'surge' and grand jury resistance:
"Even if you think that it is appropriate for grand juries to exercise their discretion...in the long term, it's not good...where you have grand juries feeling the need to do this because the government is bringing really ridiculous cases."
— Alan Rozenshtein [59:57] -
On TikTok law non-enforcement as a rule of law crisis:
"There's nothing as clean right as the TikTok non enforcement."
— Alan Rozenshtein [83:57]
"Where are the bourgeoisie? ...They just go and cozy up and you're fine. Fine right up until the moment where you're not fine."
— Quinta Jurecic [90:38]
Timed Key Segments
- [04:50] Shane’s deep-dive into the online roots of recent political assassinations
- [13:34] Wittes’ historical theory of assassination and irrational motives
- [19:08] Distinction between 1970s political violence and present meme-driven acts
- [25:12] “Boy crisis” and young men’s social disconnection as a driver
- [29:48] Wittes rings alarm about US media/NATO complacency over Russian drones
- [54:44] Jurecic introduces D.C. federal "crime crackdown" data
- [66:13] Anderson queries military involvement and Posse Comitatus concerns
- [74:10] Debate on how to interpret D.C.’s crime data
- [83:22] Rozenshtein rants against non-enforcement of TikTok law
Object Lessons
[97:01]–[108:41]
- Shane Harris: TV series "Somebody Somewhere" (HBO) — uplifting, heartfelt portrayal of community.
- Benjamin Wittes: His column on Trump admin’s hostage policy; rare bipartisan foreign policy success.
- Alan Rozenshtein: Novel "The Tainted Cup" by Robert Jackson Bennett — Sherlock Holmes meets fantasy & Kaiju.
- Scott R. Anderson: Samantha Harvey’s novel "Orbital" — reflective vignettes on space travel.
- Quinta Jurecic: Audiobook "Empire of AI" by Karen Hao — on OpenAI, the globalization of AI power, and the human costs of technology.
Conclusion & Tone
The episode is brisk, full of in-jokes and self-effacing asides, balancing gravity about the state of American democracy and security with wit, warmth, and an obvious affection among longtime colleagues. The hosts collectively reflect on what a decade-plus of following dysfunction (and hope) in security, technology, and the law has taught them: expect irrationality, find the human core to abstraction, and always read the fine print.
Special Announcement: Lawfare's 15th anniversary event, September 19th in D.C.