Rational Security – “These Are the Days That Never End” Edition

Release Date: February 20, 2025
Host: Scott R. Anderson
Panelists: Tyler McBrien, Roger Parloff, Claire Mignal

Episode Overview

This edition of Rational Security, hosted by Scott R. Anderson with Lawfare’s Tyler McBrien, Roger Parloff, and guest Claire Mignal, delves into the recent seismic shifts in US foreign and domestic policy under the Trump administration. The panel explores the shockwaves from Vice President J.D. Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, shocking actions within the Justice Department illustrating growing politicization, and the heated legal and political debate surrounding the transgender military ban. International perspectives and sobering, personal reflections from Europe frame the discourse, offering a unique, transatlantic analysis of these pivotal stories.

Key Themes and Discussion Points

1. The Munich Security Conference and US-European Friction

[03:00–29:56]

Vance’s Speech: A Transatlantic Rumble

• Vice President J.D. Vance’s remarks at the Munich Security Conference blindsided European allies. Instead of focusing on shared security threats like Russia and China, Vance criticized European governments for suppressing far-right and anti-immigrant voices, and for alleged hostility toward religion in public spaces.
  • “Vance basically said, ‘I'm not really worried about China or Russia.’ I think he actually said that almost verbatim... Instead, he launched into this speech that’s really more than anything about European domestic politics.” — Scott R. Anderson [06:57]

European Reaction: Alarm and Alienation

• Claire Mignal shares how Europe perceives America’s rightward lurch as not just rhetoric, but a genuine new posture.
  • “It’s very difficult for people to realize that the US, in their point of view, has changed so much... This is basically what I’ve been hearing in Trump rallies for years. It is just that Vance is addressing those European leaders the way he would a MAGA crowd.” — Claire Mignal [07:47]
• European leaders were shocked at the public religiosity, particularly Vance’s offering “thoughts and prayers” after a German terror attack—at odds with European secular norms.
• “Freedom of speech” is often misunderstood across the Atlantic; many Europeans did not relate to Vance’s insistence that freedom of speech is uniquely American.
  • “As a French person, I have to really be cautious when I speak in the US because you guys don’t curse as much as we do.” — Claire Mignal [13:06]

The Shadow of History: Rise of the Far Right

• Deep unease in Europe about the ascent of far-right parties, with references to recent meetings with Germany’s AfD and the existential fear among Europeans about the resurgence of neo-Nazi sentiment.
  • “This is not something Europe wants to see come back… The perspective of seeing the AfD win elections in Germany, which is a neo-Nazi party, is terrifying.” — Claire Mignal [15:00]

Geopolitical Implications

• The Trump administration’s apparent distaste for the transatlantic alliance and overtures toward hard right elements signal a dramatic possible pivot in US-Europe relations.
  • “It’s signaling a desire for a shift, a reorientation toward other parts of Europe—the ascendant far right—rather than a wholesale abandoning of US-Europe relations.” — Tyler McBrien [21:10]
• Strategic risks: By alienating Europe, the Trump administration may also weaken the US position vis-à-vis China and Russia.
  • “You really do need Europe because your biggest toolkit is economic pressure. The Europeans are a huge multiplier on economic pressure.” — Scott R. Anderson [24:06]

Prospects for European Self-Reliance

• Europe is debating security autonomy, but is fractured in its response.
  • “All the countries are not on the same page... For Germany, it’s always really complicated to envision having a military force of some kind for obvious historic reasons... That’s where it’s headed right now.” — Claire Mignal [27:01]

Notable Quotes

• “Trust me, if the US could stand through 10 years of scolding by Greta Thunberg, you guys can stand a few months of Elon Musk.” — J.D. Vance, recalled by Claire Mignal [09:10]
• _“For real. People are scared in Europe." _ — Claire Mignal [16:30]
• “There is a strong transatlantic caucus and sentiment even within the current Republican Party. It’s just very quiet and they’re going to wait for a real crisis moment.” — Scott R. Anderson [29:56]

2. Weaponization of the Department of Justice and the Eric Adams Quid Pro Quo

[29:56–56:58]

DOJ and Political Retribution

• The Justice Department is in turmoil after seven prosecutors resigned over pressure to drop charges against NY Mayor Eric Adams in exchange for his support of Trump’s immigration policies.
  • “They essentially put all the public interest attorneys left in one room and said, ‘You guys decide who’s going to file this. Someone is. Or else everyone is fired.’” — Scott R. Anderson [34:00]
  • “It does seem like it’s not playing out well for either Trump and the Justice Department, nor Adams.” — Tyler McBrien [35:31]
• Resistance appears limited as mass resignations can be unsustainable. The next lines of defense may be the judiciary and leaks to the press.
  • “There is a diminishing marginal return of these types of resignations because there’s no one left to man the line of defense. And then... probably the judiciary and judges and court orders.” — Tyler McBrien [55:02]

The Ed Martin Saga and Schumer ‘Investigation’

• Ed Martin, the acting US Attorney for DC, issues public threats against critics and pushes dubious inquiries into political enemies, e.g., Senate Minority Leader Schumer.
  • “This was just a completely naked political and public response... This is weaponization, political weaponization of the Justice Department. We are there.” — Roger Parloff [46:06]
• Orwellian Rhetoric: The Trump administration’s executive order on “weaponization” inverts prior accusations, promising retribution for alleged politicization against Trump and his supporters.

The Public’s Response

• Legal experts see a new paradigm: direct executive interference in federal prosecutions.
  • “In the past, the president would set policies, but he would not interfere in individual cases... And that’s gone now.” — Roger Parloff [51:46]
• For much of the public, political bargaining by prosecutors can seem unremarkable—blunting efforts to raise alarm.
  • “If you think of another line of defense as public opinion… there’s a large portion of the country that sees it as business as usual.” — Tyler McBrien [55:47]

Notable Quotes

• “All those people and their families really think that they’ve been wronged by the government, that justice was weaponized against them, and they’re all waiting for retribution.” — Claire Mignal [56:21]

3. Legal Challenge to the Transgender Military Ban

[56:58–71:35]

The Courtroom Drama

• Federal judge Anna C. Reyes grilled government lawyers about President Trump’s executive order banning transgender individuals from military service, highlighting demeaning and animus-laden language from the order.
  • “She was calling, isn’t this unadulterated animus, the rhetoric about dishonesty and dishonorableness and irrationality, especially in the face of this record where you have seven plaintiffs with stellar records.” — Roger Parloff [59:52]
• Judge Reyes pressed for evidence of actual military readiness impact, giving the DOJ “10 days to find me a declarant” who would claim pronoun usage impairs readiness.
• The judge raised the problem of “animus”—laws unfairly targeting unpopular groups.

Legal and Cultural Hurdles

• Courts have shown deference to the military, but the judge’s aggressive questioning signals possible pushback against using military policy as a cultural weapon.
  • “Even if Judge Reyes does ultimately say... I don't know if that wins in the end. Maybe it's symbolically important, politically important. But it strikes me as a hard legal road to hoe.” — Scott R. Anderson [66:02]

Political Salience and the Culture War

• Claire Mignal draws on her reporting to explain how the trans debate has played into US electoral politics and perceptions of Democratic “insularity.”
  • “I was with an organization trying to motivate Black people to vote... and the first man we interviewed told me he wouldn’t vote for Kamala Harris because of that [trans] issue.” — Claire Mignal [67:00]
• The trans issue has become a political wedge, often used in bad faith as an attack line rather than one grounded in genuine concern for military effectiveness.
  • “The MAGA attack on trans people is the most bad faith example of issues... and I think that’s why we saw Judge Reyes lash out.” — Tyler McBrien [70:29]

Notable Quotes

• “To then call them dishonest and dishonorable... as if taking away that freedom of gender expression isn’t forcing someone to live a lie is just preposterous.” — Tyler McBrien [70:51]

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Time | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------| | Episode setup, panel introductions, topics rundown | 00:18–03:00 | | The Munich Security Conference & Vance’s speech | 03:00–29:56 | | DOJ, Eric Adams, and Weaponization of Prosecutions | 29:56–56:58 | | Transgender Military Ban legal challenges | 56:58–71:35 | | Object Lessons | 71:50–78:21 |

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “For real. People are scared in Europe.” — Claire Mignal [16:30]
• “Weaponization, when you use the word Orwellian, it always seems like a cliché now, but this use of the word weaponization... is just Orwellian.” — Roger Parloff [50:43]
• “The MAGA attack on trans people is the most bad faith example of issues... and I think that’s why we saw Judge Reyes lash out.” — Tyler McBrien [70:29]

References & Object Lessons

• Holocaust Museum Visit: Roger Parloff recommends a visit for context on the stakes of rising right-wing movements [71:50].
• Vanity Fair’s Play-by-Play of the SDNY Drama: Tyler McBrien highlights Noah Schachtman’s feature as a must-read on DOJ turmoil [73:11].
• NYT Cooking – Vegetarian Bolognese: Scott Anderson shares comfort food for hard times [73:55].
• The Comstock Act’s Threat to Abortion Rights: Claire Mignal brings attention to the “zombie law” being resurrected in anti-abortion campaigns [76:12].
  • “France enshrined abortion in its constitution this year... always very difficult to explain to a French audience what’s going on here.” [78:05]

Tone & Takeaways

The panel maintains Rational Security’s signature blend of wry, analytical, and sometimes deeply personal tones—making complex geopolitical and legal drama accessible and urgent. The commentary, especially from Claire Mignal, bridges US and European perspectives, illuminating how American turmoil is reverberating across the Atlantic and endangering established alliances and norms. Legal developments are dissected with eye toward both technical and symbolic significance.

In a turbulent month, the message is clear: these are the days that never end—both for national security professionals and citizens abroad trying to keep pace with this new era in transatlantic relations, domestic law, and the battle for fundamental rights.

For full coverage, listen to the original episode and follow the Lawfare team's work at lawfaremedia.org.