Rational Security – "Tyler's Revenge" Edition

Date: October 30, 2025
Host: Scott R. Anderson
Guests: Tyler McBrien (Lawfare Managing Editor), Ari Tabatabai (Lawfare Public Interest Fellow)

Episode Overview

This episode centers on pressing developments in U.S. foreign policy, with a focus on Trump administration maneuvers in Asia (APEC summit and U.S.-China relations), military escalation in the Caribbean and Venezuela, and the U.S. response to a catastrophic hurricane in the region. The discussion features an analysis of Trump’s evolving foreign policy approach, congressional and military dynamics, and the real-world implications for allies, adversaries, and affected populations.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Opening: Tyler’s "Bedbug Revenge" Saga

• [00:33–03:46]
  Tyler McBrien shares a humorous yet harrowing recount of a reporting trip to Georgia, losing film, enduring bedbug bites, and tracking stolen luggage with an Airtag—only to discover it ends up in a dump.
  • Quote:
    “I suppose I had my revenge in the end, probably giving that whole house vicious bedbugs.” – Tyler ([03:24])
  • Sets a playful, personal tone before diving into serious national security content.

2. The Trump Administration’s Asia Policy & APEC Summit

Setting the Stage

• [04:20–07:28]
  Trump is traveling in Asia for the APEC summit and a one-on-one with Xi Jinping, with recent aggressive U.S.-China trade measures, especially around rare earths.

Trump’s Asian Diplomacy & Trade Focus

• [09:35–14:21]
  Ari Tabatabai outlines that trade is the core agenda, not just at APEC, but in Trump’s bilateral talks with regional leaders.

  • Notable breakthrough on a U.S.-South Korea trade deal and cooperation with Japan under a new female Prime Minister.
  • President Trump’s style is highly personal and transactional; visible wins trump long-term strategy.
  • Civil nuclear agreements and increased economic overtures are highlighted.

• Quote:
  “The president is really looking to capture at least some of the more visible pieces and pull them to show something for his trip.” – Ari ([10:26])

Underlying Strategy and Tensions

• Trump’s meetings occur amidst:

  • China’s internal turmoil (military purges, new 5-Year Plan)

  • Unclear, possibly incoherent Asia strategy:

    • Department of Defense is China-centric and hawkish
    • State Department more focused on Western Hemisphere interventions
    • U.S. alliances in Asia seeking clarity and reassurance

  • Quote: “My gut tells me we’re not really going to get that sort of clarification.” – Ari on US Asia policy ([14:19])

Strategic Ambiguity and Taiwan

• [25:12–36:22]
  Deep dive into the U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity” over Taiwan—a legacy that’s being stretched by Trump’s lack of rhetorical commitment and transactional worldview.

  • Potential for destabilization of long-standing U.S.-Taiwan commitments.

  • The difference in alliance handling between Biden (over-committing rhetoric) and Trump (unpredictable, weakening deterrence).

  • Allies in Asia and Europe both anxious about U.S. reliability.

  • Quote:
    “He sees a lot of bilateral, often interpersonal dynamics. That sort of worldview just blows open the possibilities of what the U.S. can and cannot do versus just a year ago.” – Tyler ([22:45])

  • “Trump...doesn’t want a new war to start under his watch, but once his term ends, it’s not like he’s going to keep caring about Taiwan.” – Tyler ([35:18])

  • “Strategic ambiguity—it’s my favorite foreign policy term, because you can kind of just be like, ‘no, I’m not being confusing, I’m being strategically ambiguous.’” – Tyler ([36:08])

3. U.S. Military Buildup in the Caribbean & Venezuela

Escalating Campaign and Lax Constraints

• [39:41–44:13]
  The Trump administration’s counter-narcotics campaign is expanding—now with significant conventional U.S. military build-up in the Caribbean, and reported command resignations amid tension.
  • Congressional oversight is eroded—no war authorization sought.
  • Quote:
    “This is happening out in the open…all comments from Trump seem to indicate he sees no constraints from other branches whatsoever on his ability to wage war.” – Tyler ([42:36])

Politico-Legal Calculus and Trade-offs

• [44:13–50:27]
  Ari highlights:

  • The counter-narcotics campaign’s public appeal is that it targets “bad people doing bad things,” but its legality/due process is questionable.

  • Military resources are finite and U.S. interests stretched globally (Europe, Middle East, Indo-Pacific, now the Caribbean).

  • Congressional voices (e.g., Rand Paul) raise alarm about extrajudicial killings.

  • Hegseth frames the campaign with Global War on Terror rhetoric—calling this the “Global War on Drugs (GWAD).”

  • Quote:
    “At this point, I would call them extrajudicial killings. And this is akin to what China does, what Iran does with drug dealers...” – Ari quoting Rand Paul ([47:28])

  • Concern about strategic aftermath: What follows if Maduro falls?

Defense Leadership Vacuum

• [50:27–54:20]
  Observations that Secretary of Defense Hegseth is highly tactical, not strategic; typically focused on culture war issues rather than broad, long-term Pentagon planning.
  • This leaves military resource allocation and future readiness in question: “So much of Defense Department is about maintaining capabilities and options for the future. That is what 99 percent of DOD is doing, 99 percent of the time.” – Scott ([54:13])

4. U.S. Response (or Lack Thereof) to Hurricane Melissa

Gigantic Storm, Agencies Gutted

• [54:20–59:07]
  Hurricane Melissa, a category 5, hits Jamaica and Cuba. Historically, the U.S. (FEMA, USAID) would respond rapidly.

  • Under Trump, USAID has been gutted and restructured, FEMA underfunded, and little evidence of pre-positioned aid or coordinated response.

  • Quote:
    “Even if the Trump administration wants to provide assistance...it’s going to face a real capacity gap potentially in doing so at a fast pace.” – Scott ([57:46])

Humanitarian, Political, and Security Ramifications

• Cuts in humanitarian portfolios, lack of coordination, and security spillovers (particularly in Haiti and migration flows) are major risks.
• U.S. foreign aid is historically self-interested, tied to regional stability and migration control, but current restructuring threatens even pragmatic forms of engagement.
  • Quote:
    “It was so clearly like shooting oneself in the foot...when dismantling of USAID began, which was one of the first things that happened in this administration.” – Tyler ([65:09])

Climate, Instability, and Migration Intersections

• Panel worries this hurricane is a harbinger of greater problems, with worsening climate, undercut government capacity, and cascading regional disruption.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |---|---|---| | 03:24 | Tyler | “I suppose I had my revenge in the end, probably giving that whole house vicious bedbugs.” | | 14:19 | Ari | “My gut tells me we’re not really going to get that sort of clarification.” (re: US Asia policy) | | 22:45 | Tyler | “He sees a lot of bilateral, often interpersonal dynamics. That sort of worldview just blows open the possibilities...” | | 35:18 | Tyler | “Trump...doesn’t want a new war to start under his watch, but once his term ends, it’s not like he’s going to keep caring about Taiwan.” | | 36:08 | Tyler | “Strategic ambiguity—it’s my favorite foreign policy term, because you can kind of just be like, ‘no, I’m not being confusing, I’m being strategically ambiguous.’” | | 42:36 | Tyler | “This is happening out in the open…all comments from Trump seem to indicate he sees no constraints...” | | 47:28 | Ari (quoting Rand Paul) | “At this point, I would call them extrajudicial killings. And this is akin to what China does, what Iran does with drug dealers...” | | 54:13 | Scott | “So much of Defense Department is about maintaining capabilities and options for the future. That is what 99 percent of DOD is doing, 99 percent of the time.” | | 65:09 | Tyler | “It was so clearly like shooting oneself in the foot...when the dismantling of USAID began, which was one of the first things that happened in this administration.” |

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:33–03:46] Tyler’s reporting trip misadventure ("Tyler's revenge")
• [04:20–14:21] Trump’s Asia trip, APEC, and emerging policy tensions
• [25:12–36:22] Strategic ambiguity with Taiwan & shifting alliances
• [39:41–54:20] Caribbean military build-up, Venezuela, and war powers debate
• [54:20–66:56] Hurricane Melissa, the failing US foreign aid response, and climate/migration

Tone

• The episode juxtaposes personal humor with sharp policy analysis.
• The tone remains frank, deeply informed, and occasionally wry, reflecting the “Rational Security” style.

Conclusion

This episode drives home a picture of a U.S. foreign policy apparatus in flux:

• In Asia, Trump's transactional, unpredictable approach causes anxiety for allies and rivals.
• In the Caribbean and Western Hemisphere, military escalation and disregard for congressional oversight risk dangerous precedents, with Congress largely sidelined.
• Humanitarian disaster response is hamstrung by bureaucratic dismantling, just as climate disruptions demand more, not less, government capacity.

The hosts leave listeners pondering the intersection of operational choices, values, and America’s place in a complex world—amid a changing climate, rising autocracy, and diminishing institutional checks.

Extras: Object Lessons

[67:07–71:59]

• Tyler: Bauer’s sample breakdowns on Instagram—musical education and fun
• Scott: The joys and utility of home vacuum-sealing for gardeners
• Ari: Black sesame as a culinary revelation (from cocktails to desserts)

For in-depth national security analysis with wit and skepticism, this episode is a snapshot of the complexities and ironies that define U.S. policy today.