Rational Security: The “Working the Refs” Edition

Date: January 15, 2025
Host: Scott R. Anderson
Guests: Tyler McBrien, Roger Parloff, Renee DiResta

Overview

This episode of Rational Security delves into three main themes at the intersection of law, politics, and technology as President-Elect Donald Trump’s inauguration approaches:

1. Legal maneuvers as Trump faces down final criminal case steps and special counsel investigations.
2. “Working the refs” in content moderation: dramatic shifts at Meta and the broader tech industry in response to perceived political winds.
3. Trump’s provocative foreign policy posturing—raising alarms with talk of US control over Greenland and the Panama Canal.

Throughout, the hosts analyze not only the headlines but the underlying dynamics—media, institutional accountability, and the evolving online and global landscape.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Presidential Accountability and Trump’s Legal Fights

[04:00–26:00]

What’s Happening?

• Trump’s legal team filed a flurry of eleventh-hour motions to prevent public release of the Special Counsel’s reports and to block his sentencing in New York, invoking novel arguments about presidential immunity and criminal record erasure.

Litigation Overview

• The Jack Smith report is split into two volumes:
  • Volume 1: January 6th/election interference case (D.C.)
  • Volume 2: Classified documents case (Florida)
• Trump’s strategy: delay, deny conviction’s finality until sentencing, suppress public fact-finding.
• Judge Cannon’s odd jurisdictional moves and possible implications for release of Volume 2—a “high-stakes” summary that could implicate Trump associates or even potential appointees.

On the New York Sentencing

• Tyler McBrien was on the scene, describing a surreal but final proceeding:
  • Trump appeared virtually, his lawyer vowed endless appeals.
  • Judge Merchan sought to frame trial as both “ordinary” and “extraordinary”—the same rules as any criminal defendant but profound in its implications.
  • Trump repeated his greatest hits: “witch hunt”, “rigged”, and suggested DOJ conspiracy—delivering veiled threats to prosecution, echoing his outside-the-courtroom rhetoric.
• The mood: “atmosphere of finality” but not a victory; rather, a Pyrrhic, exhausted closure.

Does Any of this Matter?

• Renee DiResta: Wonders if any of it actually breaks through to regular people, given the overwhelming, fragmented media environment.
  • “What you see and what you pay attention to is so different… It’s just so niche-ified at this point…” (23:08)
• Scott & Panel: Legal procedural record matters for institutional memory, but public and political accountability may be harder to achieve.
• Roger Parloff: The suppression of Volume 2 is a dangerous precedent, as even “public interest” findings by Garland could be reversed by a new attorney general. “It’s yet another notch of just the President being beyond any sort of accountability.” (26:09)
• Tyler McBrien: Legal accountability no longer translates to political accountability—Trump turned a felony conviction into a campaign asset.
  • “The assumption that accountability in the courts will have an adverse effect on someone’s political prospects has been thrown out the window.” (31:20)

2. Tech Industry Pivot: Meta, ‘Working the Refs’, and Shifting Content Moderation

[33:08–58:57]

Mark Zuckerberg and Meta’s Sharp Turn

• Zuckerberg’s recent embrace of “masculine values”, high-profile appearances (e.g. Joe Rogan), and his company’s scrapping of DEI programs and reduction (or rollback) of content moderation—including the end of its US fact-checking program.
• Surge of tech and business figures eager to meet with Trump and signal alignment.

What’s Driving These Changes?

• Renee DiResta: Meta epitomizes “ref-working”—shifting rules to manage political heat, left or right, instead of consistent principles.
  • “It tries to strike this balance between being responsive to where it sees the public zeitgeist, while also trying to strike this balance between user safety and freedom of expression… What you’re seeing here is a phenomenal capitulation.” (35:23)
• Fact-checking is being replaced with “Community Notes”—crowd-sourced, but with its own limitations and subject to politicization—specifically responding to right-wing delegitimization of mainstream fact-checkers.
• Rollbacks in hate speech protections allow more dehumanizing and bullying language against LGBT and immigrant users (“an explicitly political choice to be more in line with the MAGA aesthetic…” 43:36).
• Reductions in automatic moderation shift the onus to users to report abuses—yet users are skeptical this brings real change.

Employee, User, and Market Risks?

• Debate on whether this is a sound business move or a risky surrender; market precedents from Twitter suggest that audience and advertiser exodus is possible (but mechanisms for “exit” and building user-driven moderation are expanding with Bluesky, Mastodon, etc.).
• Renee DiResta: “Exit was really hard on social media for a long time… Now there’s a capacity for much more control… so you’re seeing the emergence of like a completely different type of user-controlled social media.” (49:24).
• Early adopters can shape the culture in new, decentralized communities—but the broader population may remain at the mercy of decisions by a handful of tech executives.

Quick TikTok/RedNote Sidebar

• Rumors of an Elon Musk/TikTok acquisition; TikTok “refugees” heading to China’s RedNote app and cultural/linguistic exchanges emerging there (53:23–55:19).

3. Foreign Policy Alarm Bells: Trump’s Greenland and Panama Canal Comments

[58:57–74:00]

Trump’s Provocative Remarks

• At Mar-a-Lago, Trump “refused to rule out” the use of military or economic pressure to annex or control Greenland and the Panama Canal. This triggered international concerns and extensive media coverage.

Why the Big Reaction?

• Tyler McBrien: It echoes Trump’s first-term unpredictability, but current global instability (Ukraine, Gaza, great-power tensions) elevates the stakes. “It’s a much grabbier world than the first time Trump said he wanted to buy Greenland.” (61:01)
• Legal reality: Trump can’t “buy” Greenland—Danish law and Greenland’s self-determination prevent it; the only conceivable path is invasion, which is highly unlikely and counterproductive. Panama is slightly murkier, but also subject to treaties, regional hostility, and legal constraints.

Negotiation Strategy or Grandstanding?

• Debate over whether Trump’s threats are a “madman theory” negotiation (making wild asks so a moderate outcome seems like compromise), or just bluster.
  • Renee DiResta: “You ask for…crazy things so that when you walk it back to actually we just want military bases…it sounds much more palatable…it is more of an art-of-the-deal negotiation type dynamic.” (68:58)
  • Also, such moves feed the base and meme culture: “Make the moon the 51st state…keep them excited.”
• Counterpoint from Roger Parloff and Scott: Real negotiation strategy demands believable asks. Wild, outlandish threats can unsettle allies, damage relationships, and sometimes leave one empty-handed or looking foolish (74:00).

Notable Quotes

• Roger Parloff [08:09]: “I think you’re right that personality disorders may explain this better than legal strategy.”
• Tyler McBrien [31:20]: “The assumption that accountability in the courts will have an adverse effect on someone’s political prospects has been thrown out the window, in my opinion.”
• Renee DiResta [35:23]: “What you’re seeing here is a phenomenal capitulation. It frustrates me a little bit because instead of the policies being rooted in a set of facts or emerging data… instead, we have policies that could work, we actually don’t really know.”
• Scott R. Anderson [62:48]: “Trump could buy Greenland, but technically that’s not true. He almost certainly cannot buy Greenland… the only alternative in a very hypothetical landscape would be, I guess, occupying militarily.”
• Renee DiResta [68:58]: “That was my take on it, that you ask for or you broach crazy things so that when you… walk it back to actually we just want military bases… it sounds much more palatable.”

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [04:00] – Introduction to the main topics, Trump legal sagas, and context.
• [08:09] – Roger Parloff's deep dive into Trump's legal maneuvering ("personality disorders may explain this better than legal strategy").
• [16:11] – Tyler McBrien’s report from inside the Trump sentencing.
• [26:09] – Panel assessment: does legal process make a difference for accountability?
• [31:20] – Political (non-) consequences of court accountability for Trump.
• [35:23, 43:36] – Discussion of Meta’s moderation rollback and “working the refs.”
• [49:14–53:03] – User exodus, new platforms (BlueSky etc.), and tech infrastructure shifts.
• [53:23] – TikTok refugees and RedNote.
• [61:01] – Foreign policy “alarmism” over Greenland/Panama threats.
• [62:48] – Legal reality-check: could Trump actually seize these territories?
• [68:58] – Madman theory/hardball negotiating analysis.

Memorable and Notable Moments

• Trump’s courtroom statement: “He landed in this zone he’s very good at…hinting at a threat without quite explicitly stating it.” (Tyler McBrien, [20:18])
• Meta’s moderation changes: “You can now do things like call LGBT people, including…teenagers and kids who are on…Instagram…mentally ill. You can…call immigrants, like, dirty…” (Renee DiResta, [43:36])
• On TikTok/RedNote migration: “There were really fascinating exchanges between these TikTok refugees…and the Chinese users on the platform. … here’s Chinese 101: ‘I am American. I am a TikTok refugee.’” (Renee DiResta, [53:37])
• On Trump’s threats as negotiation: “I think…it is more of like an art of the deal negotiation type dynamic. … It’s also a way to keep the base engaged, keep them excited and give them something to talk about.” (Renee DiResta, [68:58])
• On the limits of the ‘madman’ theory: “The general idea about saying if you’re threatening your negotiating partners outright…particularly when they’re partners with whom you have a good relationship…I’m not sure that’s a successful strategy.” (Scott R. Anderson, [71:47])

Object Lessons

[74:00–end]

• Tyler McBrien: Article recommendation—“Bogans in Brooklyn” in The Baffler, on Australian migration to New York (a byproduct of Australia-US visa arrangements post-Iraq War).
• Roger Parloff: Book recommendation—“V13” by Emmanuel Carrère, a narrative on the November 2015 terror attacks trial in France.
• Scott R. Anderson: Family holiday movie pick—“That Christmas,” an animated British film.
• Renee DiResta: New research paper—using AI to improve community-driven fact-checking and reduce bias via “supernotes.”

Closing Tone

A mix of wry skepticism, institutional concern, and an eye for both the absurd and the genuinely consequential undercurrents animating law, tech, and politics at one of the most volatile moments in recent US history.

For detailed links and supporting materials, visit Lawfare Media.