B (6:17)
So there are times, Ari, that you absolutely should do Roth conversions. That first example you showed, I think is a perfect illustration of that there are times where you should not do a Roth conversion. You're actually going to pay more in taxes by doing it than you would how you just sat on your hands doing nothing, maybe even forgetting your password, as you just mentioned. So how do you know? Here's how I encourage people to think of it. Start with understanding what's the impact of a Roth conversion. I say start here because this is the one where I would say there's the biggest deviance or the biggest variation of sometimes it costs you some. It makes you a ton of money. So if you don't have the foundation, if you don't almost have the, the, the anchored starting point of what's the benefit of that? It's tough to compare and contrast because we're not asking, are each of these things good or bad? All of them can be good, but oftentimes we're not choosing between good and bad. We're choosing between good and better or better and best. And so you have to start with something. You have to have some foundational starting point to know what's the potential savings from this strategy. So when I compare the others, I have something to look at. So with Roth conversions, we did exactly that. And with Roth conversions, what you're projecting out is two things. You're projecting out both. What do you expect your taxable income to be, not just this year, but really every year throughout retirement, based upon things like Social Security, based upon things like dividends, based upon things like interest, based upon things like pensions. Whatever income sources you're going to have in retirement, when you model that out, you're going to get a sense of what will your taxable income be. And then on top of that, you can layer what are expected tax brackets to be. So it's not enough just to know where our tax bracket is going to be. It's not enough to know what's your taxable income going to be. You need to compare the two so you can start to see where am I projected to be? Am I going to be in the 12% bracket in the future? The 22% bracket, the 32% bracket? All of those have very different implications now. Now, this is something that's a lot easier to do with software. The software that you just looked at, Ari, if people want access to that, they can get it in the link below. In the retirement planning academy and the early retirement academy, that is something that you can use to actually model out where you project it to be. Because when we look at things like health insurance subsidies, for example, that's usually a pretty simple thing to understand. You can say if I keep my income under certain thresholds and these thresholds depend on a few different factors. But what it's looking at is if you keep your income under certain thresholds, you're you receive a certain dollar amount in benefits. So that dollar amount, if you do the analysis, you can start to actually calculate that out. What is that? And these are things that you're looking at in your pre Medicare years. So once you're on Medicare, this isn't so much of a question. There's other things to consider like Irma surcharges. But say you retire at 60 and if you keep your income under a certain threshold, you maybe save $15,000 per year on health insurance premiums, you and a spouse. Well, 15,000 times five, you're at $65,000. So you say if I'm going to use this tax planning window, if I'm going to use this window that I have of having a low income tax bracket having a low taxable income, I can fill up that bracket or I can use that low income tax bracket to qualify for health insurance subsidies. An example, that's $15,000 per year savings. Or I can use it to do a Roth conversion by converting parts of my IRA into my Roth IRA to fill up those lower tax brackets so I don't pay taxes in the future at a higher rate when required distributions kick in. Or I can do something called tax gain harvesting. Tax gain harvesting. ARI means you can sell a certain portion of your long term gains in a brokerage account. And if you're under a certain threshold of taxable income, there's a 0% capital gains tax bracket. That's wonderful. Can you sell stock under a threshold? You can see here on the screen, if you're married filing jointly for 2025, if your taxable income is under $96,700, any long term gains you realize up until that point you're paying 0% federal tax on might be a different story depending on what state you live in. But on the federal level that's what you're looking at. Now keep in mind this is after deductions. This is after the standard deduction. If you're 65 and older, there's an extra senior deduction. And then for the next few years, from 2025 to 2028, there's an additional senior deduction. So this means your total income can. And after all those deductions, if it's under this threshold, 0% tax bracket. So what you're doing here is you're prioritizing. Those all can be good, but again, it's what's good, what's better, what's best. If I'm using the Roth conversion, I've already used this tool, or use a scenario planning analysis to say that might save me $400,000. That becomes a benchmark there. Then I look at healthcare subsidies. And keep in mind these are just examples. These numbers will be different for everyone. But if I'm saving $15,000 per year for five years, that's $65,000. But I also want to know if that $65,000 that I saved is 65,000, that stays in my investment portfolio that I no longer have to take out. It's not just $65,000 of savings, it's $65,000 of direct savings plus the growth that would come from that because that money's remaining in my investment account and not being withdrawn to spend. So you might project out what's the long term value of that if it remains in my account. Let's assume, just to use simple numbers, that 65,000 could turn to 250,000 over the course of your retirement if you're not pulling it out. Finally, same thing with tax gain harvesting. What are you going to do there? How much could you realize in long term gains? Is there a need to realize long term gains? You know, if that portfolio that you showed, I think is about $5 million on the screen there, if that 5 million, for example, was one single stock that was purchased for $10,000 years and years and years ago, and now it's 5 million, I might lean more towards. I want to use this tax planning window to realize gains from that because I need to diversify it. There's a strong need to do so. Versus if that $5 million is, oh, this person just inherited $5 million from their parents when they passed, there's zero tax implication for taking all that and doing what you want with it. So you can start to see how much of a need is there to realize these gains, not just our tax planning, but to move that investment into the desired investment that's going to allow you to meet your needs long term. How do you prioritize these? So back to what I said at the beginning. I mentioned Whether you have 100,000 or 20 million in your portfolio, how do you think about this? The less you have in your portfolio, the less you have in pre tax accounts, typically the less impactful a Roth conversion is going to be. Usually you're doing Roth conversions. Because you have a pretax 401k, you have a pre tax IRA and if you allow that to keep growing, when you turn 73 or 75, depending on how old you are, you're going to be required to start taking distributions from that. When you are required to start taking distributions, the bigger your pre tax account, the bigger that required distribution, the bigger the required distribution, the higher the tax bracket you're going to be in when that time comes. So Ari, if you're looking at this and you have a $7 million portfolio, that's not what I'm looking at. I'm looking at how much of that $7 million portfolio is in a pre tax account. If only $50,000 is in a pre tax account, I'm leaning towards. Ari, don't, don't think about doing Roth conversions. The impact of RMDs in the future is going to be negligible. Based upon the size of your ira, I'm going to prioritize tax gain harvesting or I'm probably going to prioritize qualifying for health insurance subsidies. Even if you don't have $7 million, if your whole portfolio is say $100,000 and you have 50,000 in an Iraq, to me, the benefit of tax gain harvesting or Roth conversions is relatively minor. At that point I'm probably looking at health insurance subsidies. So you start to get the sense of the greater the portion of your portfolio that's in a brokerage account, specifically one that has lots of unrealized gains, the more I'm going to prioritize tax gain harvesting, all else being equal, these aren't hard and fast rules, but just kind of a benchmark to think about. The more of your portfolio that's made up of pre tax accounts, the more I'm probably going to be thinking about Roth conversions. And overall, the smaller your portfolio. Again, this is very relative, but the smaller your portfolio as a whole, the more I'm probably going to prioritize looking at health insurance subsidies and qualifying for those because I might not even be in a position where Roth conversions or tax gain harvesting is going to add that much value for me. So. All right, going back to the question, you can start to rank which of these is going to be most impactful. I start with the Roth conversion because that gives me a very clear picture very early. Is this going to save me money? Is this going to be a net neutral event or is this actually going to lose me money? That becomes the benchmark, Then I can compare that number to what about tax Gain harvesting versus what about health insurance subsidies? And you get a much clearer picture from there.