Transcript
Host (0:00)
this is an iheart podcast guaranteed human
Vinnie Mac (0:22)
if your tv sounds funny in the
Rick Delgado (0:24)
evening you're watching live from studio six
Vinnie Mac (0:27)
b on real america's voice
Rick Delgado (0:33)
all right live from studio six p eight o' clock real america's voice glad you're in slick rick's gonna do some sports rick delgado in the house has got main headlines vinnie mac in the house has got some news as well aaron and fran holding it down on a busy thursday night april ninth glad you're in everybody slickster how are you good bt
Aaron (0:53)
how are you you know polyduction yeah
Rick Delgado (0:59)
just i don rick delgado how are
Damon (1:01)
you i'm feeling easy damon easy like
Rick Delgado (1:03)
sunday morning keep it short very good keep it short please vinnie mac how
Vinnie Mac (1:09)
are you well i know it sounds funny but i just can't stand the pain you know what i'm saying
Host (1:15)
all
Rick Delgado (1:15)
right aaron and fran are here as well harry on the highways in the building as well how was that i'm joking because i told these guys keep the intros somewhat short because i got to get to a long first word tonight so slick of course just unbelievable it's unbelievable all right well so since i set it up let's get to tonight's are you sure first word yes
Aaron (1:35)
right on it minute two
Rick Delgado (1:39)
well where are we that's the question this so called ceasefire well it may not be a ceasefire at all it may be a pause maybe a tactical pause maybe a strategic pause could be a forever pause for all we know and if you are paying attention not to the headlines but to not to the emotional spasms of the media class but to the actual movement of events then you can kind of feel it you can feel that this thing is obviously not over because what happened the minute the ceasefire was announced did the skies go quiet did the region suddenly settle down did the people involved act like peace had all of a sudden broken out well no missiles kept flying strikes continued iran and its proxies kept acting exactly the way iran and its proxies always act buying time shifting positions recalculating looking for weakness looking for advantage looking for the next opening that is not peace that's not stability that's not the end of a conflict that is the space between phases of a conflict and as always the people who are wrong about everything immediately began telling us what this means immediately the very same crowd that was hysterical just hours earlier trump is reckless trump is unstable trump is going to drag us into world war three suddenly changed costumes came back out onto the stage to announce trump cave trump folded trump backed down you see how this works whatever happens they have their conclusion ready in advance trump must be wrong trump must be weak trump must be dangerous trump must be reckless trump is now a coward does not matter that these things contradict each other consistency is clearly not the point the point is to keep the panic going so they can keep their narrative alive but let's set aside the professional screamers for maybe a moment and let's look at the board what were the goals here in iran strip away the noise and the goals were not mysterious trump made them pretty plain cripple iran's nuclear capability break its military capacity where it matters most degrade its ability to menace the neighbors in the region and arm its proxy terror networks and reduce its power to destabilize the region so if you look at those on those terms there is a very serious argument that enormous damage has already been done real damage strategic damage damage that cannot be patched over with a press release in some kind of staged press rally now does that mean the threat is gone well no probably not because the real problem has never just been the hardware it's never just been the planes the ships the enriched uranium the missiles the ports the supply routes the real problem is of course the regime itself as long as that regime survives the danger survives as long as those fanatics remain in power no agreement is final no pledge is trustworthy no ceasefire is well secure now you can sit around a table you can sign documents you can announce frameworks you can call it a breakthrough but if the people on the other side are committed in their bones to killing you deception and conquest then you're not really solving the problem you're postponing it its next expression and that brings me to something else that i think has to be plainly said because too many people want to play both sides of this seemingly forever at some point you either trust president trump's judgment here or you do not you can't have it both ways you cannot spend years telling everybody that trump is the master of leverage the master of timing the man who sees moves before other people even see the board and then the second he makes a move you did not predict suddenly you decide he's gone soft he's gone weak he's gone wobbly gone confused no it doesn't work that way either you believe he knows what he's doing or you do not either you believe there is a large strategy at work or you think he's just improvising from headline to headline either you trust his instincts which have been proven right over and over again against the smug objections of the so called experts or you throw in with the same analyst class that's been wrong about almost every major foreign policy question of our lifetime but enough with the childish games where every move is called genius when it satisfies your immediate appetite and betrayal when it does not enough with the people who want to rent out their loyalty by the hour enough with the unserious nonsense from people who want to claim the upside of trusting trump while reserving the right to join the mob every time he makes the decisions that they do not immediately understand pick one because the same people who said two days ago that he was going to incinerate the planet are now saying he's lost his nerve well which is it was he the madman or the coward the warmonger or the pushover they cannot even keep their attack straight from one news cycle to the next and the answer is obvious they are not responding to principle they are responding to trump their position is whatever allows them to say he failed that is why their arguments collapse into contradiction almost instantly now if president trump is looking at this and saying we have inflicted devastating military damage we've put the regime under extraordinary press or we have them exposed we have them weakened now let's see if what remains of them is capable of acting somewhat rationally under this current pressure well that's not weakness that could be leverage and if the regime cannot act rationally if it cannot stop attacking if it cannot negotiate honestly if it cannot abide by even the outline of this ceasefire then the pause will reveal that as well in fact that may be exactly trump's point here sometimes strength is in the strike which we've seen but sometimes strength is in the restraint after the strike sometimes strength is allowing the enemy to demonstrate to the entire world that they cannot live under peace because their entire identity depends on permanent conflict that's not surrender that is exposing it meanwhile inside iran the pressure is not easing it is building the economy shattered the currency is in trouble critical systems are damaged internal fractures are showing the population is restless and the regime being what it is has responded the only way regimes like this ever do repression executions intimidation terror blackouts but that cuts both ways yes repression can buy time yes fear can silence people for a while but sometimes the crackdown becomes the accelerant sometimes the regime in trying to save itself proves to the nation that it is beyond saving sometimes every arrest creates ten more enemies every execution creates a martyr every show of force reveals weakness inside of strength so where does this leave us it leaves us in one of those moments where the future has not been settled yet but the next steps are becoming clear maybe the talks will go somewhere maybe they won't maybe the regime finally understands that it's out of time out of leverage out of money out of room or maybe it does what it's always done stall lie provoke demand concessions play for sympathy abroad while brutalizing its own people at home and hope that the us loses its nerve before the structure finally cracks and if that is what happens then this ceasefire will not look like the end of a war it'll look like an intermission because while the diplomats talk the strategic pieces still move assets do not shift by accident timetables matter geography matters conditions matter serious people understand this you do not move military weight into a theater like that unless you are preserving serious options you do not create pressure like this unless you are prepared to make use of what the pressure reveals now maybe this pulse holds for a while maybe it breaks tomorrow maybe it becomes the final test that proves whether anything actually can be salvaged here or maybe it proves once and for all that the regime is what it's always been irredeemable untrustworthy incompatible with peace but one way or another the truth is coming so i would just say this to everybody rushing to declare either total victory or total surrender why don't we just wait and see what happens watch the behavior not the branding watch the actions not the announcements watch whether iran acts like a regime seeking survival through compromise or a regime seeking survival through deception and above all decide where you stand if you trust president trump then trust him if you do not then say so but spare us the nonsense where he's a genius on monday and a traitor on wednesday because the latest headlines make you nervous you either trust the man's instincts here or you do not you cannot have it both ways and my guess is this we are going to find out very soon whether this was the end of the current phase of the conflict or just the silence before the next strike and that's tonight's first word