A (10:48)
All right, let's talk about the biggest story. I think everybody is streamed in here now. We got a full house. Putin and Trump met in Alaska because it's sort of right in the middle there. In Alaska, of course, has some historical value because it is a time when the U.S. and Russia played well together. So in terms of setting the table, as Trump likes to say, is a good persuasion to bring Putin and Trump into the one place that's maybe the most famous place in the world where Russia and the US have gotten along well and they made a deal and it was just business. And they were on our side for some stuff, and we were on their side for some stuff. Yeah, it's perfect. Whoever came up with the idea of Alaska, that was a home run, that was just a home run. So good job on that. We'll just run down the list of things that people talked about with this meeting. First of all, the body language looked very positive, as in, both leaders did not seem to be acting when they were acting positively toward each other. Their smiles looked real. Their body language seemed to be, I'm totally into this meeting. And it wasn't creepy. I mean, it wasn't that good, but it was really good. And I don't think any of that was acting. Could have been, but it really looked genuine to me. Trump, of course, tried to give Putin the Trump handshake. And there was a great buildup to it because Trump stood in one place and made Putin do this long walk down the red carpet to him. So it also made it look like Putin is the one who came to him. That's good. Very good persuasion. But Trump puts out his hand for the handshake and he does the classic Trump thing, which is easy for him to do because he's so much bigger than Putin, where he grabs his hand and then he pulls him in so that Trump's entire body, that Putin's entire body is immediately controlled by Trump because he doesn't want to have his hand sticking out too far. That would be awkward. So he kind of follows his hand as Trump pulls in close to his body, and it puts Trump immediately in command of Putin's body. He makes Putin come to where he wants him to come. He makes him walk the way he wants him to walk on the red carpet. And then when he gets within a hand distance, he moves them specifically where he wants, and then he says, follow me, basically. And he makes Putin do what he wants him to do, which is, you know, go wherever they're going. Now, obviously, as the host, it's not surprising that Trump was leading the way, but everything about that put Trump in control. He's taller, he's sort of more popular, he's more of a star, just everything. So in terms of the setup, the choice of locations and all that, just perfect. Now, I suspect that the traditional media, since they don't deal on the persuasion level and they have a meager understanding of how negotiation works at this high level, they're going to say stuff like, well, he just made a star, and Putin. We'll talk about that. But if you look at it purely from a setting the table, which is the phrase that Trump actually used, he wasn't trying to get an agreement today. He said he was setting the table. Everything I just mentioned is setting the table. So what else happened? Weirdly, and I'd love to know more about this. When Putin and Trump first met, and then they're doing a long walk together down the red carpet, it appeared that they were chatting and joking and that they knew what the other was saying, and there was no interpreter there. So I saw Jack Posabek say that it must have been Putin was trying to speak a little bit of English, but he doesn't do that in public on camera. So it makes me wonder how much English Putin actually knows. And then I've had a second, second observation. Just hold this in your mind for a moment. What do you think would be the state of relations between the US and Russia if we were dealing with a leader that spoke perfect English? Think about it. I feel as if that language barrier just sort of prevents you from ever having a really good deal. Now, correct me if I'm wrong, Modi in India speaks perfect English. Right. Can you give me a confirmation on that? I think so. Right. Which. And then it's no surprise that India and the US get along great. And then you've got President Xi and we've got kind of a tense adversarial relationship, and he doesn't speak English. Now, I'm not saying everybody should speak English because English is awesome, but imagine how different things would be if they all spoke perfect English. Is there anybody who speaks perfect English who is an enemy of the U.S. all right, there's a good test for you. Who is an enemy of the US who is. Who also speaks perfect English? There might be some Hamas leader in that category. That's a special case, because that's a religious kind of a problem. But, you know, North Korea doesn't speak English. It feels to me that if something happened to Putin and he were replaced by somebody who spoke really good English, like Lavrov or one of those guys, I feel like everything would change. It just feels like everything would be different almost immediately, and we wouldn't know why. We would assume it's because, oh, this new leader in Russia, hypothetically, is just saying the right things. Well, maybe. Or maybe it's just that if everybody's speaking the same language, they come to an understanding, you know, just more naturally. I believe that's true. Well, let's see what else is happening. So Putin said, next time, maybe meet in Moscow. He said it in front of the cameras. So Trump was on the spot. And Trump goes, ooh, that's an interesting one. I don't know. I'll get a little heat on that one. I could see it possibly happening. Thank you very much, Vladimir. So that was clever of Putin, because he had, as I just described, he was the one who came to Trump, and Trump had all the setup just right. So Putin was probably thinking, because he's smart, that if he could get Trump to agree to go to Moscow, it was somehow erase this little level difference that Trump had just introduced, you know, with his setup of the Alaska visit. And then, then Putin says it in front of witnesses so that Trump has to react to it immediately. And he wasn't really going to say, no, I'll never come to Moscow. So he sort of had to give it a maybe, didn't he? And Trump gave it a maybe. And that elevated Putin back up to, oh, we must be roughly peers, because I go to you, you go to me, you just haven't come yet. A lot of chat has been happening over the fact that Trump also organized a flyover of the B2 bomber and its escort jets, which is pretty impressive. They timed it perfectly. So it came over just as Putin and Trump were getting together. And it was a impressive show of force. I wouldn't make as much a deal about it as some of the observers are who are happy that they found the persuasion lesson that one is so obvious that I don't know if it's really persuasive. I mean, not a lot, because Russia has big weapons too, so. And it's so heavy handed, you know, it's so obvious that that was to influence him. That probably didn't have quite the impact you imagine. Anyway, I guess the press was kind of adversarial, as it often is, and was rudely yelling at the two leaders when they got together. And there's. There was some opinion that Putin was kind of put off with it. And at one point they said, he said enough. And then he and Trump had a laugh about how bad the, you know, how bad the press is, blah, blah, blah. So that was just an interesting moment. Let me give you some other, some other impressions from other people. Speaking of Jack Posubic, he said that Trump, after the meeting, Trump was up for what did he say he'd been traveling for 19 hours. Does that include both directions? I don't know. And that he was making phone calls until 2am with the other leaders to catch him up. I'll tell you, having a president who doesn't need much sleep is really underrated. It really is like having two presidents. He just doesn't sleep that much. It's kind of amazing. Well, I guess Zelensky is going to come to the White House on Monday, so he'll be brought into it. And then there's some bullshit about Trump as saying that everybody determined that the best way to end the war is to go directly to a peace agreement and skip the ceasefire. Does that sound like something they really all agreed on? Because it seems to me that Trump would have gotten a lot of credit if he'd gotten a ceasefire. Now, a ceasefire probably wouldn't hold, so maybe there was no point in trying because it wouldn't have held anyway. But it feels a little bit like maybe Trump didn't get the ceasefire that he wanted and that he's reframing it as well. The ceasefire is not important. What's important is a larger agreement, maybe. So apparently we've decided that an imaginary peace deal is better than an imaginary ceasefire, because neither of them are going to happen. They were both imaginary. Now, does it seem to you like we're having some kind of weird theater and the theater is this. Unless Ukraine decides to give up, you know, is valuable land that Russia has already conquered, which I don't see there's any chance of that there's not going to be any kind of peace deal and there's not going to be any kind of ceasefire. And doesn't it feel to you like the odds of a peace deal are close to zero? Does anybody have that feeling? Now, Trump is the, you know, the magic peacemaker. So if anybody could do it, he would be the one I would bet on. So it's not zero, not really, but it feels like it. Can you imagine any scenario in which Ukraine changes its mind on that land exchange? What scenario would allow them to do that? Here's my best estimate. Suppose the US offered the following idea. Hey, instead of the Russian government and the Ukrainian government deciding who gets what land of the part that's already conquered by Russia, why don't we leave it to a referendum? Now, you might say there's no way you can get a legitimate referendum. You can't really assume that you would get a, you know, a legitimate vote from the population. But you could poll them, couldn't you? Or couldn't you? Maybe you can't. Maybe that'd be too hard. So suppose you said, since there is no legitimate way that the governments will agree which land should change hands, why don't we turn it over to the populations? Now, I would think that Russia now and you might take Crimea out of the mix, because Russia might say, all right, there's no situation in which we're giving up Crimea, so you might want to take that out of the mix. But if you said for the other stuff, if we could figure out what the population wants, then we should craft our end agreement around that. Now, there are a lot of Russian speaking people in those conquered lands, right? So it might be that Russia would get what it wanted. And how much would Ukraine want to keep territory that was full of people who would rather be Russian? Would they be losing a lot in that case? I don't know, maybe be fewer problems. So the only way I could see that a big deal could happen is if they take away from the governments, or at least they pretend they're taking it away. The question of who gets what land, it's just got to go to somebody independent and, or the population of the people there. And then what? I think Ukraine mostly wants American guarantee of security, but they would stop short of demanding that they be in NATO. So my guess is that we'll promise that NATO is off the table, but the US will say something like, but you're going to have to get through us, Russia, if you want to take over what's left of Ukraine. Probably something like that. Well, what was the reaction over at msnbc? Did they say it's a Great step forward. Trump really set the table. No, they had Susan Rice on and says that Putin walked away with a, quote, big victory because the event made him seem like an equal as opposed to the isolated dictator that he is or should be. And Nicole Wallace says that she was more prepared to meet with Vladimir Putin than Trump was. Now, do you notice the mind reading? When the people, the anti Trumpers, run out of good points, which happens kind of, kind of quickly, they go to mind reading. Now, how in the world would anyone, especially Nicole Wallace, know how prepared Trump was or wasn't for this meeting? Correct me if I'm wrong, but the topic of Ukraine has been one of his top topics for the entire time he's been in office and when he was running for office. And if there's something he doesn't know about that situation in order to be prepared, I would be really surprised. He might be the most prepared person you've ever seen. Now, I'm not reading his mind. I'm just looking at the situation objectively. Is it really possible that the thing that he probably thinks about the most, the thing that would get him a Nobel Peace Prize, you think he hasn't put enough thought into it? That's such a dumb NPC comment that he wasn't prepared? There's no indication that he wasn't prepared. In fact, he probably was super prepared because he seems to be able to handle a great many topics without too much pressure. That's just one more. The Wall Street Journal said, for all the pageantry, President Trump leaves Alaska with little to show while Putin got the recognition he has long sought. Now, is that the case? Well, I would argue that we cannot judge in the present whether this was a plus or a minus, because the setting the table thing is all about preparing for the move after. So if you don't see the move that follows, which would be the larger peace negotiations, if you don't see how that turns out, I believe it's ridiculous and stupid. It's just stupid to give it a grade midway. Well, that would be like if you were going to grade a heart surgeon by only watching while he opens up the front of the chest to get access to the heart. You stop. There you go. Oh, look at that patient. That patient used to be all together and now he's got a big hole in his chest. I guess that's a big old failure. Wouldn't it be smarter to wait till the operation is over and then judge whether your operation was a success? You can't judge it based on they met and they had a good time, and they smiled at each other and they said some things you would expect them to say. Anyway, I would argue this way that how many times have you seen, and I've mentioned this a number of times, and then I see other people in the press mention it, that Trump likes to create assets out of nothing and then trade away that asset as part of his negotiation. He just did that with Putin. And most people won't be able to see this, but I think I've trained most of you that you can. It goes like this. Before Putin came to this meeting, according to the Wall Street Journal, according to msnbc, he did not have the respect of the international community the way he wanted. So we all agree with that part that he had a. Isn't he, like, indicted or something by the national war crimes communal or something? We're not a signatory to that. So he was safe in US Territory, but he was sort of this outcast, demonized leader and should have been for good reason, and that this put him up on a level where he's more like an equal to the United States leader. So that on the surface, that would look like a mistake, right? It would look like Trump gave him something for nothing. But if you know a little bit more about persuasion and you know that Trump routinely creates assets out of nothing for the purpose of trading them away later or threatening to take them away later, even better. Here's how you see it. Putin just gained, as critics rightly point out, he just gained his status. Trump can take that away anytime he wants. The status that Putin gained is completely provisional. He doesn't get to keep it. Because if a week from now, Trump says, all right, well, we gave you a chance, you little piss ant. You came over here and you smiled at me and you laughed and you tapped me on again, and you had no intention of settling this thing. So now I'm going to destroy your economy, and you're a lying piece of shit. And. And I want the rest of the world to know that. Do you see how quickly Trump can take that away from him? So Putin started with none of that respect that would put him on the same plane as Trump. Trump quite deftly elevated him up to just below him, just below him, but in the same universe, just a little bit below Trump, that was creating NASA out of nothing. Now Trump can take that away. So Putin goes home and he's like, yeah, I think I really gained something in world opinion here. No, he didn't. Trump owns that world opinion. He can yank that back in 30 seconds, he can write one post on Truth Social and absolutely pull the rug out. So that's Trump. Now, Putin also being really good at persuasion, but they each have different cards to play, so it doesn't mean they'll have an equal outcome. It just means they're both really good at this. So as much as I say Trump is amazing at persuasion, and he is. He's the best. Putin's right up there. He's not a peer, but he is right just behind him. So Putin knew that he could make Trump want to keep playing with him if he said the things that Trump would want to hear. One of the things they said was that the war never would have happened if Trump had been president. Now, I don't know if that's true, but, boy, does that fit what Trump wants you to believe, because it's exactly what he says twice a day, every day for months. So Putin just goes out and backs him. Oh, yeah. There wouldn't have been a war if Trump had been in charge. Now, it doesn't matter if that's true because we can't go back in time and test it out. It only matters that he said it. And it was so perfectly strategically formed so that Trump would have to say, yeah, I do agree with that. So that was masterful of Putin. And Putin also said, didn't he also say he thought the 2020 election might have been rigged? Which, of course Trump would want to hear. There was something else he said. Oh, yeah, he said the election. Listen to this. I think this was Trump quoting Putin. So it's not something we heard from Putin directly, but Trump said that Putin said your election was rigged because you have mail in voting. He talked about 2020, and he said, you won that election by so much. It was a rigged election. Said it was impossible to have fair elections with mail in winning. Now, seriously, if Putin sat down and he said, I'm going to make a list of the things that Trump would most want to hear. Of all the things in the world, what would he most want to hear, especially from Putin? It would be the things he said. If you're grading them on how they did. A plus, A plus from Trump, A plus from Putin, but I'll give the win to Trump. Trump gets the win because he had the location advantage, not because he had more skill, but he just had. He had a advantage before the game started and he played his advantage correctly. So the other thing that's happening here is they have to know that the other one is their sort of Sherlock Holmes And Professor Moriarty, they are each other's biggest challenge and each other's most capable other. Xi is pretty capable, but Putin's more fun. I think he's just more fun. President Xi looks like he's not much fun, but Putin, even if he's evil all the time, he's still kind of fun. He's got sort of that impish smile and stuff. And you can imagine that if in a different situation, you could easily imagine Trump and Putin being buddies. I don't believe Putin golfs. Am I right? They've never golfed, so it's too bad. If Putin spoke perfect English and golfed, we'd be in good shape. All right, so then the European leaders have backed Trump. So they seem happy about what's happened so far, as long as the Europeans and Zelensky get involved, and they are now. And apparently the US Is prepared to give security guarantees to Ukraine, which is what Ukraine wants. I don't know what that would look like, but let's see. Bill Maher had his show last night, and I continue to marvel at the fact that he's becoming more and more of a Republican right before our eyes. But probably never, probably never will get there. But it's just fun to watch. The gravity is just pulling him so hard that just a little by little, he's like, well, okay, maybe he has the point on that thing, but let me tell you all these other things I still disagree with. And then he'll mention some hoaxes and some things he doesn't understand. So I guess it was Friday night. Last night, Bill Maher said that Trump wasn't wrong on tariffs and he wasn't wrong on forcing NATO to pay more. And then he gave Trump some more credit. Kind of weirdly, he said, I'll tell you one thing about him about Trump that I know. I'm not going to tell you how I know. That part's weird. He goes, but a lot of people have seen the same thing. And Mars says he really does hate war. He really does not like it when people die in war. Now, how would Bill Maher know that? Would it be the same way that every one of us knows it? Because it's the most consistent thing he said since he's been in public life, that he wants the war to stop. He wants the killing to stop. Yeah. And the other thing that people say about Trump, even his critics, is that he's exactly the same opinion in private as he is publicly. So if publicly, he's been saying consistently and loudly and often as Possible. He doesn't like people to die, doesn't like war. Avoiding war is sort of his greatest accomplishment and he should be proud of it. Yeah. So why would you imagine that he says something different in private? Do you imagine in private he says something like, you know, I really don't care if those people from other countries die, you know, as long as it doesn't come over here. I doubt it if every other topic in private is the same as it is in public. Yeah, he doesn't like war. That's the most obvious thing you could possibly say. But Bill Maher is acting like the rest of us didn't notice, and they have some insider knowledge that Trump doesn't like war. Okay, and then Bill Maher also notices, because how could he not that the Democrat leaders like Hillary and Kamala were too afraid to come on his show, but the Republicans generally say yes, and as Bill Morris says, they take their beating like men. I don't know if they take a beating, but they do go into an environment that's not in their favor and they do it easily, regularly, without hesitation. Now, that is a really fair observation. That is a real good observation. There is something fundamentally different about the Republican and Democrat approach to something like going on his show. Now, obviously he gets a lot of left leaning people on the show more than right leaning, but not the top leaders, not the ones that are afraid of saying something wrong like Hillary or Kamala anyway. And of course, they do get invited all the time, as he points out. But he says Democrats appear to be afraid of everything. Mars says they're afraid of COVID they're afraid of their own kids, which he. Which he overlaps with the trans topic. And then he. But then he has to say some negative stuff about Trump because he just has to. So. So Mars says that Trump was overly friendly to Putin for a very long time, considering that Putin is a thug. Now, does Bill Maher really not know that international relations work better if you don't demonize the person that you're forced to negotiate with? Is he the only person in the world who doesn't know that? I mean, that's what's left of his criticisms of Trump are stuff like he was overly friendly to Putin. That's it. That's not even a flaw. That's just somebody who knows how to do his job really well. Anyway, Walter Kern, I guess, was on the show and pointed out that in 2015, Obama met with Putin and nobody said anything about it. And then Bill Maher says he met him. He didn't praise him. He didn't say he's the greatest guy in the world. I could read 20 compliments that Trump has given to him. He said he's a fun guy to be with. Oh, he's. Then he was making an Epstein joke there. But again, how does Bill Maher, how could he be the only person on earth who doesn't know that complimenting the person you're trying to influence is good form and that insulting him makes it much more, much less likely you'll get anything? How does he not know that? I think he's pretending not to know because there's no real possibility he doesn't know that, is it? I would say every adult with an IQ over 110 would know that. I don't have to explain it to you anyway. And of course, Putin is running the same play on Trump. Flattering. Good morning, Ken. Then the funniest thing I'm watching is that MSNBC always has all these anti Trump critics who have to be on every day, and one of them is Molly John Fast. And I like watching her because she's so bad. She's just so bad at it. But the lowest level, I'm going to say the lowest level of pundit analysis is that the new thing is primarily a distraction to the old thing. Now, I know both sides say that, and I've even talked about it myself, but it's the lowest level of clever analysis because the world is full of things that are new news every day. Isn't it more likely that there's new news every day? Isn't that far more likely than this new thing is a distraction from the old thing, and the old thing was a distraction from the thing before it? I think the better way to say it is that Trump floods his own, doesn't allow you to focus on one thing too long, fills up all the shelf space with things he wants you to think about. So that part's true. But this whole one thing is a distraction to the other thing. There's such a low level of analysis. David Axelrod, you might know as one of the more famous Democrat advisors, he says that Trump's red carpet embrace of Putin may enrage a lot of Americans. I would say that literally everything Trump does enrages the theater kids. Is there anything Trump could do, including golf? They get enraged if he golfs. Oh, we don't pay him to golf. Well, you don't pay him at all, bitch. He doesn't even take pay. Let him golf anyway. Yeah, yeah, we have to worry about Democrats Being enraged by things Trump does, that's just everything. Hillary Clinton said some good things about Trump. And then there's one part of it that's fake news. Hillary Clinton gave Trump credit for the NATO spending going up to 5%. She gave him credit for Ukraine buying weapons from the US Instead of us giving them to him. And she thinks we have a better working relationship with Europe lately. And she's actually encouraged by that. So you might say, wait a minute, what are all these good things that Hillary is saying about him? And she goes on and she said she'd support a Nobel Peace Prize if Trump got a peace deal without giving up any Ukrainian territory. Now, what did the news do with her quote? They find people hoaxing it up. They cut out the last part. So it's a completely different message if you leave in the whole quote about if he can do it while not giving any previous Ukrainian land to Russia. That's the part that can never happen in the real world. Literally, not one person in the world, not one, not one person believes that this will end with Ukraine getting back all the land they had before it started. So when she says conditionally that she would nominate Trump for a Nobel Prize if he could get a peace deal while Ukraine got back all of his land, that she'd do it. And then the news, the fake news, reported that she would nominate him for a Nobel Peace Prize if he gets a deal, that's not the deal. Brennan made the same mistake because he will get fake news, too. So Brennan was on MSNBC and he boosted what Clinton said is that, yeah, I would agree essentially that if he could do it without and also get back all of Ukraine's property, that even he would nominate him for a Nobel Peace Prize. Because that's impossible. It's just not going to happen.