Real Coffee with Scott Adams

Episode 2936 CWSA 08/23/25
Date: August 23, 2025
Host: Scott Adams

Overview

In this episode, Scott Adams examines the latest news and cultural happenings "through a persuasion filter," analyzing politics, business, media narratives, and social trends. Adams links current events—from Elon Musk’s technological ambitions to shifting romantic norms—with the mechanics and psychology of persuasion, digging into what’s real, what’s fake, and how public perception is shaped. The episode is peppered with humor, pointed commentary, and Adams’ signature reframing of news items for maximum insight.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Economic Moves: The Fed and Government Stakes in Intel

Timestamps: [03:00] – [08:45]

• Stock Market Highs: The market hit new records after the Fed Chair hinted at possible rate cuts, though Adams doubts Trump's public attacks on the Fed really influenced this.
• Intel Stake: The US government has finalized a 10% stake in Intel, which Adams frames as "not really owning anything" but predicts may be a win-win due to government leverage with regulations and contracts.
  • “10%... that’s not owning anything, except maybe profits.” – Scott Adams [06:40]
  • Adams compares Trump’s business tactics (buying and improving undervalued properties) to the Intel situation, speculating Trump’s administration aims to enhance Intel’s value for profit and strategic reasons.

2. Elon Musk’s Ambition: "Macro Hard" and Replacing the Tech Giants

Timestamps: [08:45] – [17:00]

• Macro Hard: Musk is launching a new company aimed at competing with Microsoft Office, utilizing AI to dynamically create productivity tools without traditional apps.
• The Vision:
  • Devices will run only AI, replacing all apps and operating systems.
  • Musk’s satellite network (like Starlink) could provide global connectivity, bypassing traditional phone/internet companies.
  • “He’s making a play to put Microsoft out of business—and Apple too… He would own all of that.” – Scott Adams [13:15]
• Potential implications: Adams gives Musk as much as a 75% chance of success and imagines AI-based alternatives replacing GPS navigation systems as well.

3. Media & Political Satire: Dildo Incidents and Kamala Harris’s Book Tour

Timestamps: [17:00] – [22:15]

• Dildo Incident at WNBA: Mocked as a sign of odd modern behavior; Adams riffs on possible motivations behind a man throwing a dildo onto a court.
• Kamala Harris Book Tour: Adams ridicules Harris for writing a book about her failed presidential campaign, doubting anyone would want to read it except as "word salad":
  • “Who would buy a book from someone who’s most famous for not even being able to talk in public?” [20:30]

4. Social Trends: Romance Recession and Dating Economics

Timestamps: [22:15] – [26:10]

• "Romantic Recession": Half of Gen Z adults report zero spending on dating. Adams questions if this is genuinely new, noting it’s always been common for one gender to spend more.
• Changing Gender Norms: Suggests that if men weren’t expected to pay for dates, perhaps more would happen, yet economic constraints may be the real driver.

5. Tariffs, Trade Deals, and Negotiation Mistakes

Timestamps: [26:10] – [33:25]

• US-Canada Tariffs: Progress toward a permanent trade deal is presented as a Trump victory, contrary to dire predictions.
• Negotiation Analysis: Adams criticizes Canadian negotiators for publicly admitting they already have “the best trade deal in the world,” undermining their own position:
  • “If you’re negotiating, don’t start with ‘you’ve already given us the best deal in the world.’” [30:25]

6. Crime and Fentanyl: Political Proposals

Timestamps: [33:25] – [35:50]

• Attempted Murder for Fentanyl Traffickers: Congressman Mike Lawler proposes life sentences for high-level fentanyl traffickers, which Adams strongly supports.

7. Debunking Myths: BlackRock, Blackstone, and Housing

Timestamps: [35:50] – [40:25]

• Housing Narrative: Adams busts the popular myth that BlackRock is buying up massive amounts of US single-family homes, driving up prices.
  • It’s actually Blackstone, not BlackRock, and their purchases account for 0.1% of all homes—far too little to influence pricing.
  • “How many of you thought that was true? … Nothing is real. So I’ve got a little bit of a theme for today: nothing’s real, it’s all fake.” [40:10]

8. Redistricting and Election Mechanics: Trump’s Strategic Moves

Timestamps: [40:25] – [47:15]

• Potential Republican Seat Gains: New redistricting maps in Texas could net Republicans up to five seats, part of Trump’s broader plan.
• Trump’s Hopes for a 100-Seat Majority: Adams is skeptical about eliminating mail-in ballots but suggests a legal path: the federal government might reject state results if deemed "not credible".
  • “Could the Trump administration…decide what they would accept based on the credibility of the process…?” [45:30]

9. The “Coup” Narrative and Bill Maher’s TDS

Timestamps: [47:15] – [57:40]

• Trump’s Federal Forces: Discusses Trump deploying federal resources in DC and potentially Chicago, reflecting on the perception of forming “a private army.”
• Bill Maher’s Objections: Maher repeatedly frames Trump as a threat to democracy, focusing on hypotheticals rather than what Trump has actually done.
  • “The smartest people who also have TDS…literally have to imagine an imaginary scenario where a very unlikely set of events happen…” [52:10]
• Trump’s Persuasion Skills: Maher and Adams agree that Trump’s micro-targeting of voter groups (weed, crypto, First Step Act, etc.) is a genius move.

10. Communication and Real-World Relatability

Timestamps: [57:40] – [68:10]

• Trump’s Concrete Promises vs. Kamala’s Abstractions: Adams praises Trump’s use of visceral, visual persuasion—e.g., promising tourists won’t “go home in a body bag”—contrasted with Harris’s abstract “saving democracy.”
  • “We are going to make D.C. totally safe…they’re not going to go home in a body bag.” – Donald Trump, quoted by Adams [61:20]

11. The "Tribute Band" Theory – Democrats Trying to Copy Republicans

Timestamps: [68:10] – [75:00]

• Democratic Strategy: Adams mocks Democratic efforts to create their own Trump, Stephen Miller, Charlie Kirk, or Joe Rogan, comparing them to "tribute bands":
  • “He’s become a tribute band for a candidate’s not even running for office.” [73:05]
• Mocking, Swearing, and Surface-Level Imitation: Notes that Newsom’s attempts to copy Trump’s style are shallow: “If you’re mocking someone for a skill in which he is possibly the best in the world in all time, that doesn’t really leave a mark.”

12. Revenge, Mutually Assured Destruction, and the Trump Approach

Timestamps: [75:00] – [83:40]

• FBI Raids/John Bolton: Possible DOJ “revenge” against political adversaries; Adams rationalizes this as “mutually assured destruction” that enforces boundaries in politics.
• Limits of Support: Adams states he would withdraw support if Trump’s revenge expanded to targeting people for being good at their jobs, rather than unethical acts.
  • “I’m taking some responsibility because he’s the candidate I support…but for now, I’m completely supportive of the revenge in the context of mutually assured destruction.” [82:05]

13. Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein, and Misinformation

Timestamps: [83:40] – [93:10]

• Maxwell’s statements in a Trump-linked interview: She exonerates Trump and Bill Clinton (while Adams repeatedly warns the audience not to trust her as a witness), claims no client list, no blackmail operation, and that Epstein’s dealings were financial, not intelligence-based.
• Adams’ Persuasion Point: Even unreliable exonerations will be endlessly repeated for their persuasive effect: “The mere existence…the fact that Maxwell said as clearly as possible that he was not involved in anything is really going to carry a lot of persuasion weight. It should not, but it will.” [92:55]

14. Institutional Corruption and the Problem with Science

Timestamps: [93:10] – [99:45]

• Suppression of Speech: Tulsi Gabbard’s shutting down of the “Foreign Malign Influence Center” highlights hidden government overreach.
• Scientific Incentives: Peer review drives scientists to favor work that cites their own, leading to fake or unreliable science. Adams estimates 50–75% of published science could be fake or unreliable.
  • “Most of what you hear about science is fake.” [96:40]

15. Conspiracies, the Pyramids, and the Nature of Truth

Timestamps: [99:45] – [104:15]

• The Pyramids: Adams references a theory they were used to generate electricity, but ties it to his broader theme: narratives we accept as true are often wrong.
  • “If all of our stories that are in the public today are fake, what are the odds we got the pyramid thing right? It’s close to zero.” [103:50]

16. Technological Trends and Corruption

Timestamps: [104:15] – [107:20]

• Robots and Delivery: Advances in robot delivery paired with secure lockboxes for e-commerce, with Adams expressing anticipation for self-delivering Teslas.
• Democratic Donor Scams: Reports on a massive carbon credit scam by a prominent California anti-poverty activist and donor, underlining his suspicion that “every large, complicated thing is a scam and corrupt.” [106:10]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Persuasion Tactics:

  • “He’s making a play to put Microsoft out of business—and Apple too… He would own all of that.” [13:15]
  • “He [Trump] is the best political athlete we’ve ever seen. Everybody sees the persuasion element now.” [56:05]

• On Modern Political Copycats:

  • “You don’t just go find one…You don’t hold auditions to find yourself your own Stephen Miller. Those only grow naturally.” [69:05]
  • “He’s become a tribute band for a candidate who's not even running for office.” [73:05]

• On the Nature of News & Reality:

  • “Nothing is real. So I’ve got a little bit of a theme for today: nothing’s real, it’s all fake.” [40:10]
  • “Most of what you hear about science is fake.” [96:40]

• On Emotional Persuasion:

  • “We are going to make D.C. totally safe…they’re not going to go home in a body bag.” – Trump, quoted by Adams [61:20]
  • “Let me tell you where the active ingredient is. You don’t want to go home in a body bag.” [63:05]

Closing Thoughts

Scott Adams ties together disparate events under the theme that most of what we accept as real is likely fabricated or misunderstood, and that the most successful political and business figures are those who best understand and exploit this through expert persuasion. He repeatedly cautions listeners to question “common knowledge,” highlighting how narratives—whether about tech, politics, science, or the past—are shaped and manipulated, often with masterful strategic or psychological intent.

For Further Interactive Discussion

Listeners are encouraged to join Owen Gregorian’s post-show Spaces event on X for further debate and Q&A.