Real Coffee with Scott Adams

Episode 2951 CWSA 09/07/25 | September 7, 2025
Host: Scott Adams

Brief Overview

In this Sunday episode, Scott Adams examines major headlines and controversies through his signature "persuasion filter," weaving together current events, psychology, and his own comedic observations. Key themes include skepticism of data, public narratives around RFK Jr., the evolution of AI personalities, recent political debates, racial discourse, and scientific innovations. Throughout, Adams uses humor and personal stories (including a coffee catastrophe with his cats) to put news in context and challenge conventional interpretations.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Opening: Catastrophe with Coffee and Morning Routine

• [00:00] Adams humorously recounts a mishap involving his morning coffee and his two cats, setting a light, self-deprecating tone for the show.
  • "It was a catastrophe... So if today's show is worse than normal, it's the cat's fault. Gary. It's Gary's fault. He's not helping at all."

2. Questioning Science & Data

• Backwards Science:
  • Adams criticizes studies suggesting loneliness causes pain, flipping the causality: "Isn't this backwards, that if you're in physical pain, the odds of you having as satisfying a personal life go way down?" ([04:10])
  • Mocks the obviousness (and redundancy) in some research.
• Dunning-Kruger Effect:
  • Discusses a study linking overconfidence in detecting BS to cognitive blind spots and narcissism: "It's more evidence of the so called Dunning Kruger effect that the people who know the least are often under the impression that they're the ones who know the most." ([05:45])
  • Introduces the "dog effect," likening cluelessness about intelligence gaps in people to a dog's ignorance of human intellect: "You're almost all smarter than a dog. No, you are." ([08:05])

3. Media Narratives and RFK Jr.

• Criticism Without Substance:
  • Adams is irked by vague attacks on RFK Jr.: "It bothers the hell out of me that I keep reading stories about people criticizing RFK Jr. for being nutty and dangerous, but they don't really give examples." ([10:10])
• RFK Jr. on COVID Data:
  • Explains RFK Jr.'s contention that how COVID vaccination status was recorded created misleading stats, especially how deaths occurring post-shot but pre-status-counting were attributed to the unvaccinated.
  • "His most provocative claim...by month seven, the efficacy of the COVID shot doesn't just hit zero. He says it plummets into negative territory." ([15:30])
  • Adams doubts sweeping data-based claims, turning to a macro point: "All data is worthless." He recounts business experience showing data is used only to support pre-existing beliefs.
    • "My senior executive told me in direct words, it doesn't matter that it's inaccurate. I'll only use it when it agrees with me anyway." ([18:44])

4. AI Personalities & Big Tech

• AI User Experience:
  • Discusses OpenAI's tweaks to ChatGPT's personality and predicts AI's "personality" will be key to product differentiation: "Maybe the perceived personality of the AI will be the...decision." ([21:50])
  • Reveals his own annoyance at unnecessary chatbot pleasantries: "Every extra word is painful...Why do you have it try to make conversation with me? I'm not into conversation with a machine at all." ([23:00])
  • Envisions future persuasive AI personalities and their potential influence, drawing a parallel to charismatic leaders: "What would happen if your AI went from kind of bland...to really, really fun to listen to?" ([25:40])
• LinkedIn and OpenAI:
  • Discusses OpenAI possibly competing with LinkedIn, despite LinkedIn being owned by Microsoft (a major OpenAI investor), and jokes about awkward corporate meetings.
  • Wonders if OpenAI will create an AI-powered Microsoft Office competitor, noting the vulnerability of Microsoft's ecosystem to disruptive AI.

5. Politics, Protest, and Racial Discourse

• Protest Pay and Demographics:
  • Observes lack of Black protesters in D.C. demonstrations, speculates on paid protest industry practices, and questions the authenticity of public outrage. ([31:00])
• Impact of Body Cams:
  • Matt Walsh's theory that body cameras diminished racialized police brutality claims: "Did the body cams make people act better or did it simply tell us how they were already acting? We'll never know. Do you know why? Because all data is bad." ([32:18])
• Reparations and Empathy:
  • Skeptical view on reparations, weighing societal empathy versus the proliferation of grievances: "Just that the fact that yours is, you know, demonstrably true, that doesn't mean you get paid." ([44:10])
  • Advocates blunt honesty in racial conversations as beneficial, despite discomfort.

6. Persuasion in Politics: Vance, McGregor, and Trump

• J.D. Vance vs. Brian Krasenstein:
  • Quotes a viral exchange ("I don't give a shit what you call it." – Vance, [36:45]) and frames it as a Trump-style refusal to engage in endless word games, referencing his book "Loserthink."
• Persuasive Communication:
  • Analyzes Conor McGregor’s political rhetoric, contrasting it unfavorably with Donald Trump for lack of specificity and visual impact: "He's good as a public speaker, but he needs to find that next layer...where you see it when he's talking." ([48:20])

7. Ukraine, Drones, and War

• Drone Warfare Escalation:
  • Describes Russia's use of 800 drones in a single attack, theorizes that Russia is prolonging the war to perfect drone warfare, making peace unlikely since both sides aren't motivated. ([41:25])

8. Tech, Science, and Innovation Roundup

• South Korean Science & Hype:
  • Questioning miraculous claims from South Korea about recycling plastic: "I'm starting to think that South Korea is better at publicity than they are at science...maybe it's all 100% genuine. Maybe." ([50:12])
• Battery Breakthroughs:
  • Cites both a recyclable lithium-ion battery from MIT and a long-range, fast-charging new design, highlighting the rapid but unfiltered pace of battery innovation: "My only points about the battery stuff...is not that any one of them will be the one...but that there is really major, major improvements...We just don't know which ones will rise to the top." ([54:50])
• Corporate and Political Intrigue in AI:
  • Mentions scrutiny of Anthropic (AI company) for possible political favoritism due to Democratic donations.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Data Skepticism:
  • “All data is worthless. I learned that when it was my job to pull data together for a big bank…I'll only use it when it agrees with me anyway.” — Scott Adams, [18:44]
• On AI Personality:
  • “Every extra word is painful…why do you have it try to make conversation with me? I'm not into conversation with a machine at all.” — Scott Adams, [23:00]
• On Political Debates:
  • “You’re almost all smarter than a dog. No, you are. Really.” — Scott Adams, [08:05]
  • “I don't give a shit what you call it.” — J.D. Vance (quoted by Adams), [36:45]
• On Honesty about Race:
  • “If we're going to have racial conversations, which the left insists on, then by all means we should be telling the truth about interracial crime. It ain't whites attacking blacks.” — Mike Cernovich (quoted by Adams), [45:00]
• On Political Persuasion:
  • “He’s good as a public speaker, but he needs to find that next layer, the layer where you see it when he’s talking.” — Scott Adams on Conor McGregor, [48:20]

Important Timestamps for Segments

• 00:00 — Opening, the coffee and cat "catastrophe"
• 04:10 — Backwards science: Loneliness and pain causality
• 05:45 — Dunning-Kruger and the "dog effect"
• 10:10 — Criticism of RFK Jr. and media framing
• 15:30 — RFK Jr.'s claims on vaccine data and efficacy
• 18:44 — Adams introduces “all data is worthless” macro point
• 21:50 — ChatGPT’s personality debate; AI user experience
• 25:40 — Persuasive AI personalities, cults, and charisma
• 31:00 — Observations about protests, demographics, and paid protesters
• 32:18 — Matt Walsh: Body cams and police brutality data
• 36:45 — J.D. Vance vs. Brian Krasenstein on military action
• 41:25 — Drone warfare in Ukraine
• 44:10 — Reparations, empathy, and the problems of grievance
• 45:00 — Cernovich on honesty in racial discourse
• 48:20 — Conor McGregor political persuasion analysis
• 50:12 — South Korean scientific claims and skepticism
• 54:50 — Battery innovation roundup and scientific optimism

Closing Thoughts

Scott Adams' episode blends personal anecdotes, skepticism about data and media, and in-depth analysis of persuasion in politics and technology. He repeatedly returns to the idea that human (and data) bias colors all interpretations, advocating both for awareness of these biases and the need for sharper, more visual, and direct communication—be it from politicians or AI. The show's trademark mix of humor, cynicism, and "persuasion filter" analysis makes this episode a valuable listen for those wanting a critical perspective on news, politics, and innovation.