Real Estate Rookie Podcast: How to Find High-Cash-Flow Vacation Rentals Using “Secret” Airbnb Data
Date: December 3, 2025
Hosts: Ashley Kehr & Tony J. Robinson
Guests: Jamie Lane (AirDNA) & John Bianchi (STR Search)
Episode Overview
This episode explores whether Airbnb and short-term rental (STR) investing is still profitable in 2025, and demystifies how to reliably find high-cash-flow vacation rentals using insider data tools. Ashley and Tony are joined by Jamie Lane (VP of Research at AirDNA) and John Bianchi (Founder of STR Search) to break down national STR trends, essential data points for market selection, and the do’s and don’ts in property analysis—serving real estate rookies who want actionable steps for their first few deals.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Is Airbnb Still Profitable in 2025?
- Profitability Remains: Both guests confirm Airbnbs remain profitable, but require the right property, location, and management.
- John Bianchi [01:16]: “It’s just a matter of getting the right property within the right area, setting it up the right way and then managing it properly.”
- Jamie Lane [01:42]: “I put my money where my mouth is. I invested in a property late last year, five-bedroom house in North Georgia and it’s running great, super profitable.”
- Market Trends: While national occupancy has fallen from 2021 highs, it remains higher than pre-pandemic years.
- [02:25] Jamie shares three pivotal stats:
- Current average occupancy: 55%
- 2021 peak: 61%
- 2019: 54%
- [02:25] Jamie shares three pivotal stats:
2. Step-by-Step Market Selection Process
★ How to Choose a City/Market
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Start with Preference & Regulations (John Bianchi, [03:45]):
- Find an area you like; you'll put more care into the property.
- Check short-term rental regulations before diving into data.
- Set a realistic budget — avoid over-crowded markets if funds are limited.
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Data Analysis: The 20% Rule:
- Simplified: Look for annual gross revenue at least 20% of purchase price (e.g., $100k/year on $500k property).
- Use AirDNA to filter for property type and check actual comps.
- Cross-reference with current for-sale listings on Zillow for alignment.
“If I can see…that the properties are making $100,000, then go to look for the ones that are for sale, and they’re for sale for $800,000, $900,000, or a million dollars…they’re not meeting the 20% rule.” – John Bianchi [06:13]
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Automation with AirDNA (Jamie Lane, [08:17]):
- AirDNA incorporates for-sale listings, a rentalizer (projected earnings estimator), and gross yield calculators into the platform.
- Planning to add recently-sold data for deeper analysis.
3. Large vs. Small Market Debate
-
Rural Versus Urban Markets
- Smaller/rural markets currently see higher STR supply growth (~10% YoY) than larger, established ones (~3–4%). [11:52]
- Smaller markets offer more remaining deals and less price appreciation.
- Warning: Small markets are sensitive to oversupply (too many new listings quickly saturate the market).
“If there’s only 40 or 50 listings…and you get 10 more that come in…the supply increases 20% overnight.” – Jamie Lane [16:21]
4. Macro Data: What Rookies Must Watch
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Macro Mistake: Treating market average performance as normal for all hosts — high performers greatly out-earn underperformers.
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Key Macro Signals to Watch: [22:20]
- Supply growth vs. occupancy (fast, unbalanced increases = danger)
- ADR trends (average daily rate)
- Changes in demand (is occupancy softening year-over-year?)
“Going from a 4.8 to a 5.0 [review score] increases your RevPAR by about 14%.” – Jamie Lane [20:38]
Deep Dive: Property-Level Analysis
5. Rookie Mistakes in Property Analysis [26:26]
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Biggest Error: Overestimating property potential by comparing to best-in-market listings without matching amenities.
- Be conservative in revenue and recognize key amenities driving competitor performance.
- Use reviews to spot what guests value most.
- John recommends pasting reviews into ChatGPT for quick analysis.
“They compared themselves to [another property with] a giant backyard…and they're like, ‘We were trying to…perform as well as them.’ And I'm like, well, how?” — John Bianchi [26:36]
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Nerd Alert: Tools like Applify can bulk scrape and analyze reviews for deeper insights. [28:27]
6. How Post-COVID Has Changed Deal Analysis
- Jamie Lane: Former COVID-era occupancy spikes are no longer accurate for future forecasting—today’s 12-month trailing performance is now more reliable. [29:50]
- John Bianchi: COVID and post-COVID shocks have led him to always analyze with extreme conservatism and build properties to “outperform competition even during recessions.” [31:28]
Advanced Insights
7. Can You Outperform a Bad Market? [34:41]
- Yes; niche targeting is critical.
- Most markets are segmented by guest type, number of bedrooms, and style.
- “Saturation” is only relevant to your precise sub-segment (e.g., bachelorette groups vs. bachelor groups).
- Scottsdale, for example: despite negative headlines, John’s clients routinely outperformed by focusing on under-supplied, high-amenity niches.
8. The Airbnb Amenities “Arms Race” [37:21]
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Amenity Impact is Market-Dependent:
- In rural/small markets, amenities (hot tubs, saunas, EV chargers) can boost ADR by 20%+.
- In high-demand or beach markets, the incremental increase may be lower.
- “It’s about who your demographic is and building to that.” – John Bianchi [42:46]
- Beware the upper limit: amenities only move gross potential so much; maintenance and ROI matter.
“If you put Disneyland in your backyard… the cap is the cap.” – Tony Robinson [39:14]
The Evolving STR Landscape
9. Industry Consolidation: Will Funds/Franchises Take Over? [49:20]
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Mass Consolidation Is Unlikely:
- Even the largest funds (e.g., 500 properties) are dwarfed by ~2M US Airbnbs.
- Difficulty of scaling hospitality and operations favors small/local hosts.
- “Mom and pop” operators still have an edge; mid-size, hyper-local co-hosts are gaining ground most rapidly.
- [52:36] Jamie: “Hyper-local [property managers], managing 6 to 20 listings, are outperforming the market...they are eating a lot of these large property managers’ lunch.”
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Franchise Model Emergence:
- Large players turning to franchise/localized models to compete on service quality.
Futureproofing Your STR Investments
10. Winning in the Next 5–30 Years
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Build Unique Moats:
- Look for properties with enduring advantages: location, amenity uniqueness, lot size, natural demand barriers (e.g., rare flat land for pickleball courts).
- Hold long-term for appreciation and stable cash flow. [57:32]
- “If you can continue to hold on to that property for five to ten years, everyone looks like a genius…” – John Bianchi
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Follow Macro Demand for Travel:
- Massive growth in global middle class + under-built hotels = secular tailwind for STRs over coming decades.
- “More and more people are spending on travel and experiences…there’s just not going to be enough hotels…” – Jamie Lane [60:16]
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Multi-Channel Booking & Branding:
- The trend is toward hosts building independent brands, direct booking channels, and multi-platform listings to reduce reliance on Airbnb’s policy changes, fee structures, and occasional instability. [63:00]
- Still, individual direct-booking success hinges on property uniqueness and host marketing skill.
- “Emails are…your foundation when it comes to marketing. Couldn’t recommend emails enough.” – John Bianchi [67:15]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Industry Cycles:
“Dot com crash didn’t kill the Internet. 2008 didn’t kill real estate. The Airbnb industry…now we’re seeing it mature and stabilize.”
— Tony Robinson [56:03] -
On Amenities:
“You’re creating the destination…people are willing to pay for those amenities if there’s not going to be a lot of other things to do nearby.”
— Jamie Lane [37:21] -
On Data and Underwriting:
“Being more conservative will save you in the long run…If you’re not losing sleep at night, that’s sort of the best way of going about it.”
— John Bianchi [26:26] -
On Host Advantage:
“That mom-and-pop care and love…that’s what Airbnb was built off of and I don’t see that going anywhere.”
— John Bianchi [50:17]
Useful Timestamps
- Are Airbnbs Still Profitable? – [01:16]
- Key STR Market Data Explained (Occupancy Stats) – [02:25]
- Market Selection: The 20% Rule – [03:45] to [07:18]
- Macro Data & Supply Watch-outs – [22:14]
- Biggest Rookie Mistakes When Analyzing Properties – [26:26]
- Has Deal Analysis Changed? (Post-COVID) – [29:50]
- Amenities & THEIR Value – [37:21]
- Will investment funds take over Airbnbs? – [49:20]
- Mid-size/local management growth explained – [52:36]
- Futureproofing Your STR Investment – [57:32]
- The Rise of Multi-channel Brands & Direct Bookings – [63:00]
- Importance of Building an Email List – [67:15]
Final Takeaways
- Short-term rentals still offer robust cash flow potential if you select the right market, underwrite conservatively, and differentiate your property.
- Deep, data-driven analysis—especially using platforms like AirDNA and strategies like the 20% rule—are critical for rookie success.
- Amenities matter, but returns depend on the market and property type.
- Oversupply and commoditization are risks, especially in small/rural markets.
- Long-term winners will be those who patiently build properties with unique advantages and diversify their guest acquisition strategies, including building their own brands and direct booking channels.
Want to get started? Visit AirDNA (airdna.co) for global market insights or STR Search (strsearch.com) for a free Airbnb data course.