Real Estate Deals Are BACK (The Market Just Shifted)

Summary

Real Estate Rookie: Episode Summary – "Real Estate Deals Are BACK (The Market Just Shifted)"

Release Date: June 18, 2025
Hosts: Ashley Kehr and Tony J. Robinson
Guest: Dave Meyer

In this insightful episode of Real Estate Rookie, hosted by BiggerPockets, Ashley Kehr and Tony J. Robinson welcome veteran investor Dave Meyer to discuss the significant shifts in the 2025 real estate market. Aimed at novice investors, the episode delves into market dynamics, data-driven strategies, and practical advice to navigate the evolving landscape of real estate investing.

1. Market Shift: Transition to a Buyer’s Market

Ashley opens the discussion by highlighting the importance of data over headlines for investors looking to make informed decisions in 2025. Tony emphasizes Dave’s expertise in unpacking the current market conditions.

Dave Meyer explains the pivotal transition from a seller's market to a buyer's market. For the past three years, tight inventory made finding deals challenging, but recent data indicates a reversal. “We’re entering a period that has a lot of upside and opportunity, but also has some risk” (00:58).

2. Understanding Buyer’s vs. Seller’s Markets

Tony probes deeper into how to quantitatively define these markets. Dave clarifies that a buyer's market is characterized by more sellers than buyers, giving buyers negotiating power. “If you have more sellers in the market than buyers, that’s considered a buyer’s because a buyer’s market is referring to who has the power in the negotiation” (02:15). Citing a Redfin report, Dave notes that currently, there are 500,000 more sellers than buyers, a return to pre-pandemic levels.

3. Gauging Market Dynamics: Inventory and Days on Market

When asked how to assess the number of buyers in the market, Dave recommends monitoring metrics like inventory levels and days on market. “When you see inventory go up, that just means properties are sitting on the market longer” (04:02). An increase in inventory coupled with longer days on market typically signifies a buyer’s market.

4. Pricing Trends Amid Increased Inventory

Ashley raises an important observation: despite rising inventory, national home prices remain relatively stable, and sellers aren't significantly reducing prices. Dave attributes this to the sustenance of the buyer pool despite economic uncertainties. “Some people might just be testing the market. Some people might be very patient” (05:16). He suggests a market stalemate where sellers hold prices while some buyers see potential for negotiation.

5. Strategic Approaches for Rookie Investors

Addressing how rookies can leverage current market conditions, Tony advises targeting listings with high days on market, suggesting that lowball offers could lead to favorable negotiations. Ashley shares her personal experience of offering significantly below asking prices, noting potential acceptance from motivated sellers. “If you just analyze one deal, it’s almost impossible to say if it’s a good deal or not, but if you did 10, you could start to see which deals are better” (26:34).

6. Historical Context and Future Projections

Tony inquires about the historical context of current inventory levels. Dave acknowledges that while April 2025 saw a 20% year-over-year increase in inventory, it remains 15% lower than April 2019 levels. He anticipates a slight national price decline by year-end but does not foresee a market crash. “I don’t think we’re going to see like double-digit price declines. But I do think we’ll see what is sort of a normal correction” (12:27).

7. Investing Strategies Suited for 2025

Post-advertisements, the conversation resumes with Tony seeking Dave’s recommendations for effective investing strategies in the current market.

Dave recommends two primary strategies for rookies:

1. Buy and Hold: Ideal for long-term growth, focusing on assets that appreciate over time. Dave emphasizes that real estate is a long-term investment and advises maintaining flexibility in rental strategies (long-term, short-term, or midterm rentals).

2. Owner-Occupied Strategies: Techniques like house hacking or live-in flipping provide low-risk entry points into real estate investing. These methods allow investors to offset living costs while building equity.

8. Data-Driven Decision Making and Avoiding Analysis Paralysis

Dave underscores the importance of balancing data analysis with action. He advises rookies to establish a clear investment focus and avoid getting bogged down by excessive data. “Focus on execution. That is true of like every business, and real estate is true there as well” (35:25). By analyzing multiple deals, investors can develop a frame of reference to identify lucrative opportunities without being hindered by over-analysis.

9. Financing Strategies for Live-In Flips

Discussing personal experiences, Dave shares his approach to financing live-in flips. He opted for a conventional mortgage with an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) to benefit from lower initial rates, planning to refinance post-renovation. “I’m living in a house that really gives you the opportunity to time your exit really well and it takes the pressure off being on to like having to renovate in six months” (43:26). Dave highlights the importance of choosing financing that aligns with the investment strategy and holding costs.

10. Mindset for Navigating the New Normal Market

As the episode concludes, Dave advises rookies to adopt a pragmatic mindset focused on current market opportunities rather than historical performance. “Focus on what is the best thing to do with your money today” (44:18). He emphasizes prioritizing real estate as a core investment while evaluating each deal's merit based on present conditions and personal financial goals.

Conclusion

Dave Meyer’s expert insights provide rookie investors with a comprehensive understanding of the shifting real estate market in 2025. By recognizing the transition to a buyer’s market, leveraging key metrics for market assessment, and adopting strategic investment approaches, newcomers can navigate the complexities of real estate investing with confidence. The emphasis on data-driven decision-making, coupled with actionable strategies, equips listeners with the tools necessary to embark on their journey toward financial freedom through real estate.

For more information and to connect with Dave Meyer, listeners are encouraged to visit his BiggerPockets profile or follow him on Instagram at @thedatadeally.

<small><a name="timestamp"></a></small>

Transcript

[Ashley]

If you're looking to invest in 2025, you need more than just headlines, you need data. And there's no better guide than our guest today, Dave Meyer.

[Tony J. Robinson]

Whether you're on the sidelines or already in the real estate investing game, Dave's breaking down what's really happening in the market and how you can use it to your advantage.

[Ashley]

This is the real Estate podcast and I'm Ashley.

[Tony J. Robinson]

And I'm Tony J. Robinson. And let's give a big warm welcome to Dave. Dave, thank you for joining today, brother.

[Dave Meyer]

Thanks for having me. I'm excited to be here.

[Ashley]

Dave is like our big brother from the OG Bigger Pockets podcast who has come today to share his knowledge with rookie investors. So I think, Dave, the first thing we want to talk about is kind of what does the 2025 data say? So what is the single most important shift in the housing market that rookie investors should understand right now?

[Dave Meyer]

Well, my job is getting more fun because I think for the last three years, everything was just always the, like, there was tight inventory, it was tough to find deals. But that is actually starting to shift. We're moving more towards what would be called normally a buyer's market. And I think this is exciting for investors. Personally, just for my own investing, I am getting more excited about looking for and buying deals because there's just going to be more inventory, there's going to be more to look at. But the reality is when you have a buyer's market, there is also the risk of falling prices. That presents the opportunity. Cause you can buy things for cheaper, but it also, you know, presents risk. You don't wanna buy something that's gonna decline significantly in the future. And so I think the data suggests we're entering a period that has a lot of upside and opportunity, but also has some risk. And so I would encourage rookie investors to be active in this type of market. But really just make sure to take some basic precautions. This isn't crazy stuff, but some basic precautions to make sure that you're buying the right type of deals in this buyer's market.

[Tony J. Robinson]

Dave, 1, 1 follow up question on that because, you know, we hear buyers market, sellers market, but how do we actually, from a data perspective, define those two quote unquote markets? Like, what is the data you're looking at to say, hey, we've, we've crossed over into what is now a buyer's market?

[Dave Meyer]

That's a very good question. The way, the simplest way to do it is you just evaluate the total number of sellers in the market and the total Number of buyers. And if you. It's kind of a little counterintuitive, but if you have more sellers in the market than buyers, that's considered a buyer's because a buyer's market is referring to who has the power in the negotiation. And when there are more sellers than buyers, buyers have the power in the marketplace because I'm sure you all can imagine. But if there's, let's just say a million sellers out there and there's only 500,000 buyers, those million sellers are going to have to compete for the buyer's attention and dollars. And the way they compete is either by lowering prices or by offering concessions. And that gives buyers the power to negot. And so what we've seen recently is after years of having more buyers than sellers, that has flipped. There is actually a recent report from Redfin that shows that there are 500,000 more sellers than buyers in the market right now. And so that is a really big shift from where we've been over the last couple of years. I do think it's important for people to know that that number of 500,000, it sounds like a lot. It's actually if you go back pre pandemic, not that unusual. It's like kind of a normal amount. But it's a very big difference from what's been happening the last couple of years, if you've been paying attention.

[Tony J. Robinson]

Dave, one, one last follow up to that and I appreciate that breakdown. Now. I think sellers is, is an easier number to gauge as a rookie. Like you can just look how many homes are currently for sale. But how does, how does one gauge the number of buyers in a market? It's not like when I go into a, you know, an agent's office, I have to like register. So how do we gauge number of buyers?

[Dave Meyer]

There are a couple of different metrics that you can look at to sort of understand the balance between buyers and sellers. I think the two most useful ones are just something called inventory. There are different ways to track this, but when you see inventory go up, that just means properties are sitting on the market longer. It means there aren't enough buyers to buy every property that gets listed. So inventory, it's not going to tell you those exact numbers. Like there are X number of sellers and Y number of buyers. But it will tell you a little bit about the balance between buyers and sellers. And another similar measure would be days on market. These are things you could just look up. We have them on biggerpockets.com markets or, you know, all these Realtor, Zillow, Redfin, they all have this kind of data. You can look at how many days it takes for the average property to go under contract in your market, and the higher it is, the more of a buyer's market you're in. Vice versa, if there's very few days on market, you're in a seller's market and the sellers have all the power.

[Ashley]

So, Dave, with there being more inventory, why are we still seeing that home prices have pretty much remained flat and that sellers really aren't slashing and they're holding prices? Do you think it's just that they haven't realized there's a shift yet?

[Dave Meyer]

Yeah, it's a good question because we are seeing just more and more inventory. But prices on a national basis are still going up year over year. And there's two things. One is inventory can go up. This things can shift for two reasons, right? You can have more sellers, you can have fewer buyers. But the interesting thing that's going on is that the amount of buyers has actually stayed pretty similar. Like, people aren't leaving the market even though there's high interest rates. There's all this talk of recession. There's all these things going on in the economy. There are the same, relatively similar amount of buyers right now than there were a year ago. The thing that's going, that's happening is more sellers are putting their homes on the market. And so that's sort of where this discrepancy comes from. But as Ashley, you correctly pointed out, that doesn't mean that sellers are necessarily going to accept a price less than they want. Some of them probably will, but not everyone is in a position where they have to sell. Some people might just be testing the market. Some people might be very patient. Some people might just choose to take their property off if they're not getting the amount of listing or interest that they want in their property. And so I do think there's kind of a little bit of a stalemate going on. We see this because price drops are going up. And so there does seem to be a little bit of a discrepancy between what sellers are expecting right now and the reality of what buyers are willing to pay.

[Ashley]

Tony, in your opinion, what's one tactic that rookie investors can do with this information? If they're looking at their market, things are sitting for a long time. Buyers aren't reducing the price. What's. What's one the way they should go about trying to get these deals?

[Tony J. Robinson]

It's a great question, Ashley. And like, obviously we're talking like macro here, but I still think at a very micro level, every seller has a slightly different situation. And I still think like fundamentals are fundamentals and we should never assume what a seller's situation or what their motivation is. So if you do see properties with super high days on market, I would really go after all of those listings. Who cares what it's listed for? Let me just get an offer out and either they're going to reject it and say nothing, they're going to reject Encounter, or maybe they just accept because they're so happy that they finally got an offer. Right. But those are really the only three outcomes. So I think still leaning into underwriting where the deals make sense for you, increasing the volume of offers you're getting out and seeing, seeing what happens from there. Do you have a different take, Ash, what do you think?

[Ashley]

No, that's great advice. I think just going to bigger deals and sorting the list of properties by, you know, days on market. So, and then start at the end of the list, go to the very last page, say it's paid in shine. You go there and you look and see what's been on market the longest and start looking at those properties to see what's available. But I agree, make those lowball offers because someone like me, I have a property that's been sitting for over 100 days on market and I have not done a price reduction. I've gotten a couple offers, but I would take a look. It's listed 139,000 and I would take 115,000 on it. And I've gotten offers around 8,090. I have one lady right now that's made an offer of 115 and we're waiting to see if she signs a contract and puts an official offer in other than just a verbal offer. So. And really there is no reason that I haven't done a price reduction. My agent hasn't recommended it. She says, you want to wait for that price, let's just sit and wait. So I don't know if she has a strategy behind it or what, but an example of someone who is waiting for a certain price, but it's still a huge discount from what the asking prices of what I would take.

[Dave Meyer]

That's super interesting. That's just such a great point to Tony's point. Like you never know, like you're sit out there willing to take this decline. You're not going to broadcast that. You know, you're not going to post that in your Zillow notes. In the listing, then I'll be worried.

[Ashley]

They'Ll be making even lower offers.

[Dave Meyer]

Exactly. It's like when you post something on Facebook marketplace, like, you know, they're going to just offer you half of what you say, so you. So you have to put it higher so it's the same thing. You can't knowing people are going to negotiate. You have to do it. Hold your guns.

[Tony J. Robinson]

I got to tell you guys, a really funny sidebar. Here I was, I was shopping for, like, an. Like, an old basketball jersey at one of our local swap meets, and the. The guy selling the jerseys had them on sale. It was like, I don't know, two for 60. And I was trying to negotiate with him, and, you know, we were going back and forth, and I was like, well, what if I just take one? I was like, let me. Let me get one for 35. And remember, he was initially offering two for 60. And he looks at me and he starts laughing. And my wife was with me. She was like, babe, you're going the wrong way. So, yeah, just be careful when you're negotiating that you're not negotiating yourself into a corner. It was a throwback Lakers jersey, actually, is what I what ended up picking.

[Ashley]

So what'd you end up buying it for? Did you get it?

[Tony J. Robinson]

I talked him back down to his original price after I offered more. So that's, like, the worst negotiating tactic ever.

[Dave Meyer]

Very clever negotiating tactic, Dave.

[Tony J. Robinson]

I want to talk a little bit more about. About inventory. I saw a data point. You know, we're recording this in summer of 2025. I saw a data point that April of the same year, inventory nationally was up, I think, 20% year over year, with inventory being up 20%. Where are we at, like, in the history of supply, like, or where we're at in terms of, you know, months of supply? Is this normal? You know, because things are obviously super constrained coming out of COVID Are we getting back to our normal state, or we kind of in, like, a danger zone right now?

[Dave Meyer]

Oh, no. I think. Well, I guess you could say there's a little bit of both. We are going back to normal. Like, if you just look at the total number of inventory, which, again, just the amount of homes that are for sale at any given time and in April of 2025 is, like, 1.34 million. So just to give you. I'm looking this up. I do not memorize these things, even though people think I do. If I look at April 2019, it was 1.6 million. So we're still 250,000, what is that, like 15% lower than we were back then. And so I think that's important to remember. But I do think that there is some risk in the fact that it's going up rapidly. And I also believe that because we're in a period now of lower affordability that we might not get back to that level anytime soon of like pre Covid levels. Like we might not necessarily get back to historic, you know, historic averages. And I think that's just an unfortunate reality of us being in a much less affordable housing market than we were in 2019. And so I do think there are ways, and I'll just tell you, I do think prices on a national basis will probably fall a little bit by the end of the year. So I do think you will see prices fall even though we probably, we might not necessarily get back to that 2018, 2019 level of inventory. That said, I'm not like a crash person. I don't think we're going to see like double digit price declines. But I do think we'll see what is sort of a normal correction as part of a real estate and business cycle.

[Tony J. Robinson]

So for real, managing tenants can feel like a lot of work. But they don't have to be. For me, it all changed when I found Turbo Tenant. They're a free software that makes managing rentals super easy. I used to waste so much time on paperwork chasing down rent, but now with Turbo Tenant I have everything in one place. They even have state specific leases, digital condition reports, and a simple way to schedule showings without all of the back and forth. Their automated rent collection saves me hours every month and their maintenance management keeps me organized. Everything's in one place on your phone, so you can be a landlord from anywhere. I'm actually good at managing rentals now, not just finding deals. Check it [e-mail] biggerpockets and create your free account today. Want to invest in real estate but don't have the time or know the best local markets? Rent to Retirement has you covered. Look, here's the deal. They've helped thousands of investors just like you find turnkey homes across the best US markets. And best of all, they do all the heavy lifting for you. With over 250 five star reviews on BiggerPockets, rent to retirement experts help you build strategies to retire early through real estate. And right now, Rent to Retirement offers some amazing incentives on turnkey new construction properties. Like up to $30,000 off of new build prices, 0% down down loan options, 3.99 interest rates so guys don't miss out. These deals won't last. Text REI to 33777 or visit biggerpockets.com Retirements start investing in top Cash Flow.

[Dave Meyer]

Markets today Want to invest in real estate but don't have the time or know the best local markets? Rent to Retirement has got you covered. Here's the deal. They've helped thousands of investors just like you find turnkey homes across the best US Markets. And best of all, they do all the heavy lifting for you. With over 255 star ratings on bigger pockets, Rent to Retirement exper build strategies to retire early through real estate. And right now, Rent to Retirement offers some amazing incentives on turnkey new construction properties. Just for example, you can get up to 30% off new build prices or you can get 0% down loan options or interest rates available as low as 3.99%. So don't miss out. These deals will not last. Text REI to 33777 or visit biggerpockets.com retirement to start investing in top cash flow markets today. Running a business means dealing with shipping, but who has time to drive to the post office? Stamps.com brings the post office to you. Print shipping labels and send packages without leaving your desk. It works for letters, packages and everything in between. Connect it where you sell online and shipping becomes automatic. Access postal services and UPS through your computer or phone anytime and their pricing tool cuts costs by up to 88% on shipping rates. Get [e-mail] onthemarket for four weeks. Free Free posted and a free scale. Head to stamps.comonthemarket.

[Ashley]

So Dave, we've talked a lot about what's happening in the market, but what about how to make sense of it? As a rookie investor, let's shift gears into how investors can develop a data lens like yours. This can be overwhelming for a rookie hearing all of this information, this market data, what should they actually be paying attention to? What are the things they shouldn't ignore?

[Dave Meyer]

So I think if you really want to get the big picture, there are just a couple of buckets that I would try and understand. First and foremost is which direction prices and inventory are going in your market. Just like we were talking about before the break. You know, if inventory is going up, that means there is a risk of price declines. That doesn't mean you can invest, but these are the things that can help you formulate your strategy. Like Tony said earlier, if inventory is going up, this just means it's a market where you can negotiate an offer under asking price. Whereas if it's sort of the opposite scenario, inventory's falling, sellers have all the power, you're going to have to bid aggressively and waive your contingencies. Sort of all the crazy stuff that we saw going on during the pandemic. And so it's not. This data doesn't tell you whether or not to invest. I really sort of recommend people not try and time the market in that way. But you should use it to inform how your going to offer and how you're going to invest, the type of strategies. So just which way, you know, these inventory numbers are really important. And then trying to understand just some basic things about your market which are. If you really want to boil it down to one or two things, I would look at demographic trends. So like is the population growing? If you want a little bit of extra credit, look up something called household formation. It's like population but it's a little more relevant to housing and see where that's going. And then just look at job creation. Job creation from my analysis and work over a lot of years at Biggerpockets, I think boils down to like the main thing that can help predict where rents and prices are going to go. And so if you really just, you can look this up, you can Google it, it's all free, or ask ChatGPT, you know, which direction or like what kind of jobs and what the labor situation in your market is. There's obviously a lot more to it, but those are like the two main things I would focus on as a rookie.

[Tony J. Robinson]

Dave, I want to talk a little bit about like how you personally would look at a market or a submarket. But before I do, I guess just one follow up question. I love the idea of focusing on, you know, population growth or household formation. How much weight should a rookie give to like national headlines? Right. You know, what you see when you open up, you know, whatever news site you go to versus local headlines. Like how much weight do you give to each of those as you're evaluating different cities?

[Dave Meyer]

Oh for, if you're an investor just looking to make a deal, I'd do like 95% your local market and 5% national. I think there are some national things that matter. I probably tend to focus way too much on what's going on in like the bond market because I'm weird and I care about these things. But if you're just trying to buy your first or second deal, like, like just focus on the fundamentals of your own market, you'll be fine. You don't need to understand what's going on. On a national trend. I, I invest in quite a few different markets, and what's happening in one right now is like, totally different than what's happening in another. I'm. I live in Seattle. I just bought a house. I got it for probably 10% lower than what it would have been sold for three months ago. I'm selling a property in the Midwest for significantly more than I bought it for just a year and a half ago. You know, so, like, there's just all sorts of things going on, and you really just need to know what's going on and the market you're operating in.

[Tony J. Robinson]

So I guess drilling down a little bit more. Dave, on what you specifically would look at, if you're evaluating a market for its potential for rental real estate investing. You talked about job creation, household formation. Are there any other kind of key things you're going to focus on to say either yes, this makes sense or no, the city doesn't make sense?

[Dave Meyer]

Yeah. Again, all things being equal, I think most people probably just want to invest in their own backyard. Similar to what I was saying about, you know, maybe prices are going down, you could still invest. You just need to adjust. In most markets, you can find something that works. It just might not be aligned with your strategy. So if you live in an expensive market like I do, and you want cash flow, you might need to look elsewhere. At least if you want to scale, you might be able to find a deal here and there, but it's going to be harder. This is kind of what I do. I invest in certain markets for appreciation. I invest in other markets for cash flow. So I just want to caveat that. So when you're looking at each individual market, you sort of need to understand what you're trying to accomplish. And if you're looking for appreciation, the job growth is super important. I think the, the nerdy thing a lot of people overlook is sort of the supply side of things. So basic econ, right. Prices come down to supply and demand. We all want to talk about population growth and people moving there and all that is demand. But as we've seen over recent years, one of the main things that impact housing prices, and as an investor, we want those to go up steadily is just how much building there is in certain areas. Actually, there's a guy, he's the chief economist at Zillow. His name is Orfe Duvunguy. He's been on. On the market a few times. He just put on this really cool economic study I think it's cool. No one else does, but it's basically showing that, like, housing prices are directly related in like a statistical way to how little or much construction there's been over the last couple of years. And so that's something to look into in your market. Like, I invest in Denver, it's been so overbuilt. Prices have been flat or falling for like two or three years, and that's probably not going to get cleaned out for another year or two. And so that's something I think has also really varies a lot from market to market. So in the Midwest, in the Northeast, there's not a lot of building. And I think that's a good reason why those markets have stayed really strong and probably will. And some of the markets in the south and the, you know, the Southeast and the Sun Belt just got so popular that developers overdid it. And that's sort of negatively impacting not just home prices, but rent prices as well. And so that's something, you know, 10 years ago I don't think you would have needed to worry about. But in this kind of market, it is something you might want to look into.

[Ashley]

Dave, along those lines of finding information in your market, one of my favorite resources is, is subscribing to like, it's called the Buffalo Business first. And I think they have like Business first newspapers all over. But in your market, if you can find those local newspapers that cover a lot of the business, like they have a real estate section, it gives you a lot of information of what's happening in that market specifically. And you don't have to get the physical newspaper. You can subscribe to the online edition too. But Dave, what are some other resources that rookie investors can use without paying thousands and thousands of dollars for actual data to get information about their market?

[Dave Meyer]

I love that one. That is one of my favorite tips is like local newspapers, I some of them are free. I do pay for some of them in markets that I go to. It's like $5 a month. And it is worth it if you're going to try and scale in a city to understand where businesses are investing. Sometimes businesses are closing, you know, sometimes you hear just about takeovers or all sorts of interesting stuff that I'm going to guess 95% of investors probably don't really look at this kind of stuff. So it's just a way to get an advantage over other people who might not be paying as close attention. One of the things I also love, and this sounds like sort of archaic, but it's just paying attention to what the government is doing. Like in a lot of cities you can sign up for like notices by the housing commission or the planning commission or just knowing where the government is spending money in a particular area. A lot of local governments spend a good amount of their resources trying to stimulate the economy, trying to attract businesses to the area, subsidizing housing or building. And these kinds of things can help you as an investor. So I really like that too. There's also like local chamber of commerce kind of things or just like additional things that are completely free. It'll probably take you one hour a month to read this, maybe less, you know, and it gives you a lot of insights. But if you're just looking for like the standard data I was just talking about, we have that on biggerpockets or you can you really use any sort of listing platform you like. There's also a website called Fred I really like. It's the. It's just like a aggregates data, free data and it's free for you to use. So it's just the Federal Reserve bank of St. Louis puts that out and it's a really good data source for.

[Ashley]

The, the town and the city. I always go to their local website and you can find their planning board meeting minutes and I can't even tell you how many I have read like, you know, to figure out, okay, where are they at with their short term rental laws? Like is something happening? And you can get like a glimpse like are they talking about it? If they are going to do any kind of new development, that's where you go first is you go to the planning board to present your plans to see if it even gets approved. You can find out a lot of this information before you. It's even, you know. ANNOUNCER they have a sign, you know, staked into the ground coming soon. So I think that's really great advice is scouring those, you know, city and the local town websites to find that information.

[Dave Meyer]

I actually got a deal just like what you're talking about in Denver. They were planning this park and this railway and they hadn't announced exactly where it was going to be yet. They had two different designs that they put up on their website and I think every investor was waiting and my, it was my agent's idea. He was like let's just go like literally measure the different areas and figure out where would be a good house to buy either would they pick either one? And we actually found one and bought it before they announced it and actually worked out really well. And now I'm like one house away from this like amazing park that they built. Built because we just were a little bit creative and paid attention to what was going on.

[Ashley]

That's such a cool story. A good example.

[Dave Meyer]

I was like, yeah. And then like they were actually eminent domaining a few houses for this and like, I was like, he better measured. Right? Because they were like coming with this spray paint and they were like. I was like, this better be right. And he was right. It was one house off.

[Ashley]

Two other resources to define information is Bright Investor and Neighborhood Scout. There are two other websites where you can pull neighborhood and local information too, and data.

[Tony J. Robinson]

Dave, one last question for me on the data side because obviously you're a wealth of knowledge and you've done a really good job of being able to go through a large amount of data and just like to seal it down into things you can actually. Action. I think where most rookies get stuck is not in access to the data, but it's in the analysis paralysis that comes along with, with having access to so much data. So as a rookie investor, how do I toe that line of getting the information versus acting on that information? Like how do I make sure that I just don't get stuck in data aggregation mode but that I actually get to the point where I can make a decision on the data that I've gathered?

[Dave Meyer]

Yeah, that's a great question. I think the, the main thing people need to do is just like pick a market and settle on it and not think too hard about it and obsess about it. I know that I am at fault for these because I put out lists and I talk about different markets, but I think you both correct me if I'm wrong. I think you'd probably agree that like if you're picking a solid market, like it's going to come down to execution whether you do well or not. Not like one market being superior to the other one. What my rankings and all this stuff that all the data shows you potential. Right. It doesn't actually show you what you're going to get in terms of a return. And so as long as the potential is there, focus on execution. That is, that is true of like every business, I think, and real estate is true there as well. And so don't obsess about it. Find a market that has, you know, positive population growth, good job growth, and a price point that you can afford and you know, if it's cash flow or appreciation kind of question and then really just focus on the specifics. Of the deal. And I know people get really caught up in deal analysis. The recommendation I make, I think we've all said this. I'm sure you guys have too. But it just comes down to doing enough analysis to be able to spot the outlier. So if you just analyze one deal, it's almost impossible to say if it's a good deal or not, because you have no frame of reference. But if you did 10, you could start to see that one might be a little better and one might be awful. If you do 50, you're going to really start to be able to see which deals are better than the other one. And I, you know, I keep spreadsheets all the time of deals that I'm analyzing. Even when I'm not looking to buy deals, I still analyze deals and I just like save them. By month. I'll be like, these are all the deals I did April of 2025. These are all the deals I looked at in May 2025. Even though the last couple months I've been pretty busy. I wasn't planning to really buy anything. But now I am starting this summer to start looking at more deals and I have this frame of reference in my head that's like, okay, the average deal in this market is like a 4% cash on cash return. I'm paying 200 grand a unit. Now if I go out there and I say I'm paying 200 grand a unit and I got a 6% cash on cash return on this one, I know that that's a good one to buy. And so I think that frame of reference really helps. Rather than comparing it to every other option out there, narrow down to the options that are realistic for you. These 50 deals are potential things you can buy. And of those 50, which one's the best? Right. And like, to me, that might be overly simplistic, but I am sort of, I sort of subscribe to the belief of dollar cost averaging and just like buying consistently even if the market is up or down. And so kind of doing that, I still want to buy the best possible deal at that moment in time. And this kind of approach at least allows me to do that.

[Ashley]

Yeah. And now with bigger deals, you really don't have to spend a lot of time analyzing deals. You literally could go through and look at what they are and, and convert it right into your bigger pockets calculator report. And then saved all. Save all those reports and go back and reference them.

[Dave Meyer]

Exactly. Yeah, that, that makes it so much easier to just like get this benchmark that's gonna, I think, really help people do less of this over analysis and can just really focus on, you know, here are my options. Here's the best one for me, Tony.

[Ashley]

What we have to do for a future episode is pull some of those reports that we did years ago and what like 2017 when we both joined Biggerpockets and go through and analyze it and say like, okay, should we have bought this deal? What would this deal look like now? Or how bad did we analyze this deal? So you should definitely do it up like that. Going into the archives, I can tell.

[Tony J. Robinson]

You right now, one, one deal that didn't work out was the second deal I bought in Shreveport, Louisiana that cost me $30,000. So we want your opinion, right? Like, how can we take this data and answer the question, what investing strategy should rookies actually focus on in today's market? And we'll get an answer from you on that question right after a quick break. Are current interest rates making you depressed about cash flow? What if it didn't have to be that way? Rent TO retirement has 2.99% seller financing available on turnkey properties. You heard that right. That's a seller financed 2.99% interest rate where the average cash flow is over $900 per month. They also have options where you can put as low as 5% down on multiple investment properties with no PMI. Rent to retirement is the nation's leading turnkey investment company that understands what it takes to be successful in today's dynamic real estate market. Their reputation speaks for itself, with more five star reviews than any other company. On the BiggerPockets website, rent to Retirement offers fully turnkey properties that are newly built or renovated, leased and managed, allowing you to invest with confidence in the markets that offer the best returns. To learn more, visit renttoretirement.com that's rent t o retirement.com or text REI to 33777. Again, text REI to 33777.

[Dave Meyer]

Every package needs shipping. And the old way means driving across town and waiting in line. The new way is stamps.com you can hand just minutes. The setup is simple. You print labels on any printer and they send you a free scale for accurate postage. It works with ebay, Amazon and your own website. You can access postal services anytime through your computer or phone. So stop wasting time on shipping. With stamps.com, get [e-mail] onthemarket for four weeks free and get a free digital scale. Head to stamps.comonthemarket. do you know that feeling when you're about to leave the house and you pause to double check the locks. I used to get that feeling all the time until I got Simplisafe. Here's why I trust it. Most security systems only act after somebody's already inside. Simplisafe takes action before anything happens. Their AI powered cameras and agents keep an eye on things 24. 7 Someone's hanging around your property. The agents can talk to them, activate spotlights and even call the police. All in real time. I've had peace of mind since day one. Setting it up is a breeze and I'm honestly not very handy. And it could be done in just under an hour. Plus there are no contracts. There are no surprise fees and plans start at just $1 a day. And if it's not for you, that's fine. They offer a 60 day money back guarantee. It's no wonder SimpliSafe's been named the best home security system in the US by US News and World Report five years in a row. Right now is a great time to get SimpliSafe because you can get 50% off a new SimpliSafe system with professional monitoring and your first month free. Go to simplisafe.com pocket that's simplisafe.com pockets. There's no safe like SimpliSafe. Running out of gas, that's a problem that's avoidable. Owning a rental property without proper landlord insurance, that's a problem that's equally avoidable. Steadily Landlord insurance can help. Steadily offers fast quotes on property and liability coverages that are tailor made for the real estate investor community. And they can even compare pricing from multiple carriers for landlords looking to weigh their different options. You can rest easy knowing your investments are secure with Steadily. They're available online 24. 7 and they can start coverage as fast as the day next day. Visit biggerpockets.comlandlordinsurance to secure your investments with Steadily Insurance. Steadily Insurance founded by landlords or landlords Starting your own business can be intimidating because of all the hats you suddenly have to wear. There's the marketing hat for emails and social posts, the web designer hat for your storefront, the copywriter hat, the logistics hat, and of course the hat hat just for tracking all the other hats. It's a lot, but the right tool to simplify it all. Total game changer for millions of businesses. That tool is Shopify. Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide, including 10% of all E commerce from brands like Mattel and Gymshark to ones just starting out Launch your store fast with beautiful templates that match your brand. Shopify's built in AI helps with content too, writing descriptions and headlines and even enhancing photos. Want to market like a pro? Create campaigns wherever your customers scroll. Best of all, Shopify is your expert partner, handling everything from inventory to shipping and returns. If you're ready to sell, you're ready for Shopify. Turn your big ideas into you. Get it? Sign up for your 1 month $1 per month trial period and start selling today at shopify.com bprook rookie go to shopify.com bprookie shopify.com bprookIE.

[Tony J. Robinson]

All right Dave, so we've got the market picture and now we've got the tools to kind of track and understand it. But let's kind of bring this all together, right? Like what should Rickies be doing with this information? Right? So given all the trends that we've talked about, in your kind of professional opinion, what types of investing strategies do you think are best suited to for 2025 conditions?

[Dave Meyer]

I love this question and everyone calls strategy something different. For me I prefer the strategy and for rookies, what I would recommend is I guess one of two different strategies. Generally speaking, I think buy and hold is just the right move, right? This is what works well in good markets. In bad markets, if you're investing for the long run, which you should be, real estate is not a get rich quick kind of of thing, then buy and hold is the right move. And I personally, I honestly am indifferent to whether you long term rent it, short term rent it or midterm rent it. I think those are kind of like tactics that you can use within this strategy of like I'm going to buy great assets and hold on to them for as long as I can and if one rental strategy works better for you, go for it. You know, like if, if in your market short term rentals is the best way to do it. Do it. If midterm rentals, great. I'm sort of indifferent to those things. So I just think real estate over time prices go up, the debt works. There's so many reasons you guys talk about on the show all the time. So buying and holding is great and I think we can get more into that. The second bucket is just owner occupied strategies like house hacking I think is always a great idea. But as Ashley and I talked about on the other show recently, like we're both like dabbling. You're doing it. I'm about to start a live in flip. I just think these are really good low risk ways to get started in real estate investing. And although it's called a live and flip and flipping sounds scary and risky like doing it in this owner occupied strategy way. I've sort of just had an epiphany recently that this is just like a very good risk adjusted way to earn returns, especially for new people.

[Ashley]

And like what's the worst case scenario? You have to live in the house longer. Like you're usually making the house pretty nice and you know like that if that's your worst case scenario is you have to live in the house longer. That's, that's not that bad. Like so like say you go to sell it and it's not going to sell for what you want. The market has shifted. Okay, well then you hold on to it longer and I think a big part of that is purchasing within your means. Like making sure that it's a house you can afford and not, not banking on selling it on, you know, when that 24 month mark hits. So. Yeah, I, I totally agree and I've been thinking about it more and more like after our conversation as to what like even more just the benefits of it and how it's like there's not a lot of risk that can actually have like bad things that can happen. The worst case scenario is pretty much other people's every day. Like you are stuck in a house.

[Dave Meyer]

Yeah, it's, it takes the risk. To me in, in flipping is market timing, right? You need to do the renovation really quickly and you need it to sell it at a good time. Because if the market tanks in the six to nine months that you're holding this property, that's the risk. But property prices recover. And so if you're living in a house that really gives you the opportunity to time your exit really well and it takes the pressure off being off to like having to renovate in six months. So I think these things are, are really interesting. I will say I have been investing for 15 years but I am a, I'm a renovation rookie for sure. Like I've, I've done them but this I haven't done like big full scale down to the studs kind of renovations before. And so I might regret what I'm saying. So take this all with a grain of salt.

[Ashley]

Everybody that's watching on YouTube, I need you to comment below. Renovation rookie. And we're gonna get Dave to do a YouTube YouTube series of him going through this renovation process will be mandatory to wear a hard hat and your tool belt and we'll send you some tools.

[Dave Meyer]

I'LL I'll go on Amazon and buy like construction worker Halloween costume and wear it around and it will end up.

[Ashley]

Being like a little, a little kid set like costume.

[Dave Meyer]

Yes, exactly. So we'll see. I, but I do think that the numbers really make sense. Sense and the lifestyle thing makes sense to me too, which is super important too. Like it just fits into what like I want for my lifestyle. So that's great.

[Tony J. Robinson]

And Dave, that was kind of. My next question is like, you know, if you were starting over, you know, you've been doing this for, you said 15 years, but if you were starting over today as a rookie, what strategy would you focus on? And it sounds like at least for where you're at in your life, the living flip makes sense. So I guess let me, let me ask both of you guys, right, Because Ash, I know you're, you're going down this path as well. Well, but from a, when we think about a typical renovation, right, it's hey, I'm going to go out there and maybe get hard money or private money to buy this flip. Maybe I'm, I'm cash flowing some of the renovations or my portion of the down payment. But when you're doing a live in flip, what kind of financing options did both of you choose? Did you choose like traditional primary residence funding or did you go more so the traditional flipping route funding. And Dave, we can start, start with you.

[Dave Meyer]

Yeah, I actually wound up doing traditional loan, a conventional mortgage. And that's because I picked a property that is moving ready. It does need some love. It is definitely dated but my wife and I are actually moving in tomorrow and we, you know, it's totally livable. The bathrooms work, the kitchen works. And so I was able to get a conventional loan on that. For people listening, if you buy something that's super distressed, you probably, you might not be able to go this route. And I, we deliberately targeted something that was going to be livable because we don't want to be max inconvenient to ourselves and just like move it to a place where there's no shower. So for us that was important. But I actually did something I haven't done before, which I got an adjustable rate mortgage mortgage. Because I do intend to refinance this not relatively quickly because after I do all the renovations, I'm either going to sell it or if we live there, I will refinance it. So I'm giving myself that option. And the adjustable rate mortgage was a good 1% lower than a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. So that will save me a couple hundred bucks every month while I'm doing this. And I know people have different opinions about adjustable rate mortgages, but I think for this kind of situation, it actually makes sense. And so that's how I did it.

[Tony J. Robinson]

Dave, I appreciate you sharing that. How, how long is your rate locked in for before it adjusts? And I know you said it was a point lower, but like, ballpark, what was the interest rate on it?

[Dave Meyer]

Yeah, so I, it was, it's a seven year arm, so I have seven years to refinance it, which is plenty in my opinion. And then it adjusts every six months after that. So that's called the 76 arm. And I, well, I'll just tell you, I got a very good rate. It's 5.25%. But part of that, I got a half point discount because this is actually a good tip for anyone who invests in the stock market. Certain stock brokers will offer you mortgages if you have your stock portfolio with them. So I did mine through Charles Schwab and they gave me a half point discount. I think they're more motivated these days because mortgage, mortgage volume is low. And so I got a half point discount. So it would have, if I had didn't have that relationship, it would have been like 5.75, which is still really good. And so I was able to get it to 5.25. I was shocked because I underwrote this at like 6 and a half. So when I got that, I was delightfully surprised.

[Tony J. Robinson]

So you go with the ARM for the financing and what's your game plan for the actual renovation? Did you get any of that covered with, with the mortgage? Are you just going to cash flow those renovations over the next, you know, 12 to 24 months?

[Dave Meyer]

Yeah, so I, you know, I've been doing this long enough, so I'm for, in a, you know, fortunate financial position. So I am going to just pay for that in cash. And that's why if I wind up staying there, I'll refinance because I'll want to pull that cash back out. But so I'm going to just finance it again because I just want to have my holding costs be as low as possible. And if I was, you know, getting either hard money or private loans or trying to finance this, it would just, just increase my holding costs. And that's not the strategy for this, this deal.

[Tony J. Robinson]

Last question for you on this one, Dave. Do you, do you think you'll be able to force equity or I guess enough equity to get to that refinance on the back end. Like, you feel what you bought it for and where the market's moving, you'll have that room there.

[Dave Meyer]

So I, I think the, the difference between what I bought it for in the ARV is probably somewhere around 400 and 450,000. That's kind of conservative. Maybe up to 500. Yeah, well, I live in Seattle, so prices are very expensive here. And I think it will cost me like 225 to. To renovate. Ish. That's my estimate that James Dana gave me. And he knows stuff, so I'm. I'm trusting him.

[Ashley]

Okay, Dave, before we wrap up here, what is the mindset that rookies should really adopt when entering this new normal market instead of the hype market that we've had the last several years?

[Dave Meyer]

I think the mindset is not to compare potential returns to historical returns and instead to focus on what is the best thing to do with your money today? Because I understand it. It is tempting to say, hey, if you invested in 2015, you could have gotten an 8% cash on cash return and things would have been cheaper. And that is appealing, and it's great. I'm sorry to say. That's just not available anymore. And so you need to think about, you know, you have X amount of dollars. Is real estate the best place to put it is a savings account. The best place to put it is the stock market the best place to put it? For me, I invest primarily in real estate. I invest in those other things, too. I hold cash, I have stock investments. But for me, I keep about two thirds of my net worth worth in real estate, and I'm going to continue to do that. And I just look for the best deals possible today. Because even though a deal that I buy right now may not be the grand slam I hit in 2014, but it's still better, in my opinion, than any other option that I have for my money and is the best thing to move me forward towards financial freedom. And I know that's sometimes hard for people to wrap their head around, but that's just the reality of being an investor, right? Like, you need to just decide where to allocate your resources. And to me, it's still predominantly real estate, and everyone needs to make that decision for themselves. But I'm guessing if you listen to the show, you have already have an inkling that real estate might be right for you. And just to adopt that mindset, is this deal better than putting in the stock market? Is it better than putting in a savings account. If yes, move forward, like take control, start pursuing financial freedom. That's kind of the mindset I've adopted and I guess it's working for me, so maybe it'll work for you.

[Ashley]

Well, Dave, thank you so much for joining us today on the Real Estate Rookie podcast. Can you let everyone know where they can find out more information about you?

[Dave Meyer]

Yeah, you can find me on the Bigger Pockets podcast or the on the market podcast. I'm on BiggerPockets all the time. Or on Instagram where I'm at the data deli.

[Ashley]

Oh yeah, I saw big controversy today on your Instagram. Dave posted about a really hot topic topic today that probably gonna bring out some haters.

[Dave Meyer]

This. Yes, this is my wife's idea. Have you seen those trends where it's like propaganda I'm not falling for? My wife was making makes fun of me because like if you I order sandwich and it comes out as an open faced sandwich, I get so mad. Like nothing makes me more mad. It's false advertising. I want a refund if you only bring me one slice of bread. And so I just was was starting that up and now people inevitably get this conversation. It's like, is a hot dog a sandwich? Is a taco a sandwich? I have very strong opinions about this, so if you want to argue with me, go check out my Instagram.

[Ashley]

I have to say you did definitely post the most controversial picture because it looks so good that like who cares if it's on one slice of bread. Well Dave, thank you so much for joining us today. I'm Ashley, he's Tony and we'll see you guys on the next episode of Real Estate Rookie.