Real Estate Rookie (BiggerPockets)

Episode: They Were Right in 2008, Now They’re Saying to Buy in 2026 w/ Thach Nguyen & James Dainard
Date: January 14, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode, hosts Ashley Kehr and Tony J Robinson invite seasoned investors Thach Nguyen and James Dainard to unpack what it means to invest in real estate during uncertain times. Drawing from hard-earned experience in the trenches of the 2008 financial crisis, Thach and James share survival strategies, mindset frameworks, and practical advice for rookie investors navigating the shifting 2026 market. The central message: opportunities abound during downturns—if you’re willing to adapt, weather the storm, and play the long game.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Lessons from 2008: Surviving & Thriving in Downturns

• James' 2008 Experience
  • Was a wholesaler just starting to flip homes; the crash hit 60 days after opening his own shop (01:11)
  • The subprime mortgage collapse wiped out deal flow: “You could find a house for a dollar, and no one would buy it.” (01:57)
  • Many left the industry but he and his partner didn’t quit; that perseverance made the difference.
    • Quote: “The best thing we ever did was not quit during that time.” (02:16)
• Thach's 2008 Experience
  • Realtor and developer actively flipping and building single-family and apartments (02:23)
  • Single-family rentals did well, but new construction—especially apartments—was a major risk
    • “I end out losing like on one building… four or five million dollars.” (04:31)
  • Key lesson: “Sometimes going big isn’t always better.” (04:49)

The Mindset: Why Not Quitting Matters

• Why Didn’t You Quit?
  • James: Naivety, sense of responsibility to business partner, learning to adapt instead of quit. (05:23–07:30)
    • When what used to work no longer did, they pivoted: shifted from wholesaling to flipping because “no one else would buy.”
    • Quote: “We had to make some adjustments and test it… If it wouldn’t have worked, I probably would have bailed.” (07:13)
  • Thach: Anchored by an accomplished mentor who taught that real estate is cyclical (07:49)
    • Multiple income streams (wholesaling, sales, flips, rentals) create stability; relying on one “leg of the table” is risky (08:48)

Advice to Rookies: Focus or Diversify?

• Don’t Go All-In Right Away
  • Most beginners have a 9-to-5: “Milk that machine as much as you can for… active income and… learn about real estate investing.” (10:27)
  • Learn to source deals—that creates options to wholesale, flip, or buy-and-hold.
  • Avoid quitting your job before you have experience; transition gradually (10:55)
  • Key Philosophy: Build expertise in a strategy before branching out.

Is 2026 Another 2008?

• Thach’s Perspective:
  • Real estate cycles about every 10 years: 10 up, 2–3 year correction (11:35)
  • “We are at the bottom of the cycle and… heading into an upswing market…” (12:21)
  • Persistent housing shortage means demand will return; “The last three decades I’ve gone through, it repeated itself exactly the same way.” (13:12)
• James’ Perspective:
  • While people panic over changing conditions, the reality is a normalization, not a crash (13:17–14:46)
  • Market adjustments mean opportunity—if you’re positioned correctly

Should You Buy Now? Market Timing Myths

• Buying in Uncertain Times:
  • Don’t overthink: “The math is the math.” If the deal pencils out, market timing is less important (23:23)
  • “Define your buy box. What will you buy? What won’t you buy? And stick to it.” (24:48)
• Underwriting Today:
  • Know your local market deeply (“Know your marke, know your time on market, know what’s selling” — 26:27)
  • Long-term buy-and-hold covers minor short-term drops: “Even if you pay 10, 20 grand more today… 10, 20 years from now, it looked like pennies.” (27:23)
  • For flips: Require higher margins in “C” or “D” areas; don’t try to do too many deals at once.

How to Underwrite and Adjust in 2026

• Margin Expectations:
  • Thach targets at least 20% gross margin on flips; more in riskier (“C”) markets (29:07, 32:11)
  • James increases needed margin during uncertain times for risk buffering (31:41)
• Deal Volume:
  • “You don’t have to do a lot of deal. All you got to do a few good deal and you’d be set.” (29:17)
• Asset Selection:
  • Focus on “B” markets/locations; A = high-end, D = lowest end/ghetto
  • In soft markets, D and C areas move slower (16:55–20:02)

Buyer’s Market or Seller’s Market?

• Balanced Market, Not a Fire Sale
  • “I think it’s a balanced market. I don’t think it’s whole all selling market.” (36:28)
  • Sellers are more negotiable now; “If you find a deal, don’t even really worry about what the listing price is right now. Just underwrite it, whatever number makes the most sense to you and then offer even below that…” (37:17)
  • Best deals are “below replacement cost,” especially for long-term buy-and-hold (38:11)

Building for the Long Term: Systems and Sustainable Growth

• Common Newbie Mistakes:
  • Chasing fast/large passive income, overvaluing short-term flips instead of building a rental portfolio (43:50)
  • “Fix and flip is a vehicle to long term wealth.” (44:54)
• Team and Scaling Cautions:
  • Key: Build an “A team”—great GC, subs, designer, property manager, and agent
    • “Do not be cheap paying a general contractor… they get their ass kicked every single time.” (48:20)
  • Don’t chase deal volume before your team infrastructure is solid (“There is a sweet spot. I could have done half as many deals and made twice as much money…” 52:44)
  • Be wary of social media’s scale hype: flashy numbers often hide thin profits
    • “Social media, right, they always talk about, you know, the gross number… but nobody really talk about the real net at the end of the day.” (54:02)
• Debt & Financing
  • Lock in fixed-rate debt; floating loans are the root of most trouble in tightening markets (46:00)
  • Underwrite purchases for TODAY’s numbers, not speculative future appreciation or rate drops (47:34)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The best thing we ever did was not quit during that time.”
  — James Dainard, on the 2008 crisis (02:16)
• “Sometimes going big isn’t always better.”
  — Thach Nguyen, re: new construction losses (04:49)
• “If you have a table, you only got one leg… your table’s going to be really weak.”
  — Thach Nguyen, on income diversification (08:48)
• “It is a mindset game more than anything.”
  — Thach Nguyen, stressing patience and the long haul (40:17)
• “Fix and flip is a vehicle to long term wealth.”
  — Thach Nguyen (44:54)
• “Don’t get drunk on the performance… If I could unwind my journey I would have taken my businesses all to 50 percent of where I'm at now.”
  — James Dainard (52:44)
• (Humor) “James just stripped down and is showing us where his rash is.”
  — Ashley Kehr, [after James jokes about flipping zombie houses] (55:09)

Timestamps of Important Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |----------------------------------------------------|-----------| | Introduction and guest intros | 00:00–00:56 | | 2008 stories – James & Thach | 01:11–04:52 | | Why not quitting matters | 05:23–08:48 | | Diversifying vs. focusing for rookies | 09:58–11:24 | | Are we headed for another crash/cycle discussion | 11:35–15:00 | | Adjusting business practices for 2026 | 15:00–20:02 | | Core rookie advice for the current market | 23:23–27:23 | | Underwriting & strategy specifics | 29:03–33:13 | | Buyer’s vs. Seller’s Market | 33:28–37:02 | | Mindset: long-term wealth vs. flashy results | 38:11–40:28 | | Avoiding rookie mistakes; building a sustainable team | 43:50–49:36 | | Scaling, sweet spots, and cautionary tales | 49:36–54:14 | | Guest contact info & episode wrap-up | 54:14–55:27 |

Summary – Actionable Takeaways

• There is no “perfect” time to invest; the best deals often appear in uncertain or down markets
• Real estate is cyclical. The current market is normalizing, not collapsing; opportunity is ahead
• Define your strategy, buy box, and partner with experience if you’re new
• Build a sturdy “table”—diversify income, lock in financing, and avoid overextending on projects or teams
• Focus on long-term value, not short-term hype or social media “success” stories
• Do your market research, underwrite deals conservatively, and always plan for multiple exits and sufficient margins

Contact the guests:

• Thach Nguyen: Social media (@thachnguyen on IG/YouTube)
• James Dainard: @jdainflips on Instagram, On The Market Podcast, Zombie Flips on A&E