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Daniel Fosh
Welcome back to Real Estate Without Borders. My name is Daniel Fosh. I'm joined here, as always, by the lovely David Hutchinson. What are we talking about today, Dave?
David Hutchinson
Today's a good one. Today, let's talk about the impact of tourism on the USA from Canadians visiting. And then let's also mix in a little bit about what's happening with Canadians and their real estate in the usa, because I think this is something that a lot of people. I'm seeing a lot of articles about it, reading a lot of stuff on this, and seeing some videos online about Canadians avoiding U.S. travel and, like, what the reasoning is for that, what's behind it, what that means for real estate, what that means for real estate investing, and let's go from there.
Daniel Fosh
Okay, so I guess the big question here is why are Canadians suddenly avoiding U.S. travel?
David Hutchinson
So I think, okay, I want to. My controversial take. I think people, I think Canadians want to believe in their heart that it's because of Trump. I think that's why they want to believe so bad that we're just sticking it to the Americans. I don't think personally that's the case. I think that's a part of it for sure. But I think the main reason is that we just maybe can't afford to or it's not as desirable based off of where the Canadian dollar is currently positioning itself.
Daniel Fosh
Well, also, like, travel season's over.
David Hutchinson
Yeah, that too.
Daniel Fosh
January and February are passed, so there's that. So, like, any reason that Canadians might have to go south is diminishing as the weather gets warmer in Canada.
David Hutchinson
Agreed.
Daniel Fosh
I. I think you're right. There's a couple of different articles about Canadians selling their. Their vacation homes as well, and a lot of it is the weak Canadian dollar. Right.
David Hutchinson
What's a Canadian. What's a cat at today? I think it's at, what, 70 something?
Daniel Fosh
Yeah, it's getting stronger because it's not getting stronger per se, relative to global currencies, but relative to the USD, because the USD is crashing. Right, I'll pull up some. Let me just see if I can pull up some tweets on the, on the. But yeah, the dxy, which is the dollar index, has been, like, down. Let me just see.
David Hutchinson
Hold on, hold on. Let's explain that. What's the dxy?
Daniel Fosh
DXY is your. Is your US Dollar index relative to all other currencies. So it's like the easiest way to. To look at the US Dollar relative to, like, all currencies on earth, rather than just like, relative to the Canadian dollar. Or whatever.
David Hutchinson
So it's comparing USD to every other currency and you're using USD as like the standard.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah, exactly.
David Hutchinson
Interesting.
Daniel Fosh
Okay, so this is, this is just the last couple of days, but if you look at it, if you look at like the, the DXY over the last, I don't know, let's just see if we can find one. Three year lows. It says here for the, for the.
David Hutchinson
US dollar obviously due to all this.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah. So there you go.
David Hutchinson
Okay, so I mean I'm gonna say obviously let's talk about it because it's not obvious what, what's causing the US dollar to, to drop other than you know, like we know tariffs, stock market uncertainty. But from your opinion, what are, what are you seeing with what's actually causing like tangible takeaways for the listeners to be like, okay, this is what I can use to say to my clients to help them understand why USD is dropping.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah. So I think that the big one is uncertainty, right? People like there's a lower demand for US dollar when, so people are dumping Treasuries and a lot of people are saying oh it's China dumping Treasuries to try and keep the yield high. So like remember we talked a long time ago when the tariffs first started. I think I was probably one of the first people to kind of like really have this theory that Donnie and his team were trying to bring the 10 year yield down or the 30 year yield down to try and reduce the interest rate on a lot of that debt that was maturing for the government debt, right? Yeah, exactly. And what's happening is the opposite. Yields are going up and yields would go up because people aren't confident in the bonds of that government when people aren't. And that's reasonable right now. Not to politicize it, but there's volatility associated with the behavior of the government. Right now we don't know if they're going to cut a ton of spending, continue cutting spending. We don't know if they're going to keep tariffing to the point where that's an uncertain revenue stream. If you're just a, I don't know, like a, somebody from another country wanting to invest in, in U.S. bonds. And you don't, not, you don't really know the US economy super well. It's just like, hey, they're completely changing their revenue strategy. Right? Like if a business did that, you, you probably wouldn't want to invest in them either. Right. So that, I think that that's, so you're actually Seeing a lot of US Funds dumping Treasuries. It's not China, like, people are, like people are alluding to. It's. So it's not some, like, economic defensive play. China probably is dumping some U.S. treasuries.
David Hutchinson
Right.
Daniel Fosh
And quite a bit of them. But it's not. They're not, you know, the biggest portion you. U.S. treasuries are held by, like, most of them are held by Japan and then I think Europe, a couple European nations. And then China would be in there. Canada is in there as well. If people are selling them, then the price of them goes down, which means the yield goes up. Right. The interest rate goes up. So that's. That's the bond side. Dollar side. The reason the dollar would be going down is the same thing. If people are losing confidence in the way that the US Is behaving and don't want to use the dollar as a reserve currency.
David Hutchinson
Right.
Daniel Fosh
Then that could create volatility, downward price discovery and issues. And that seems to be probably the case. And some people have argued that Trump might actually be doing this deliberately. Right. Trying to get the dollar lower.
David Hutchinson
Right.
Daniel Fosh
To stimulate foreign investment. Right. I don't know. But anyway, that's why it's getting low.
David Hutchinson
Got it. Okay. See, we're learning today right off the hop. Five minutes in, six minutes in. Just unlimited information now. Okay, let's. I want to talk about the travel parts. I know we kind of started here. So it says 70 of Canadians or a 70 drop in Canadian travel to the US which is having an impact on U. S. Tourism hotspots. What are the hot spots we're talking here? I think I saw in that article Palm Springs, Washington State. What's in Washington state?
Daniel Fosh
Oregon. So, like, a lot of. I don't know. I mean, the co. Yeah, I don't know. The. The. I don't. I don't really know. That was a tourism hotspot, I guess. Portland. I don't know.
David Hutchinson
I guess. But yeah, okay, so. So these Canadians, like you said, though. So we've kind of covered that. One of the reasons is likely due to the weak Canadian dollar, obviously, and just allowing us to maybe have less purchasing power there. Dollar goes less, everything's more expensive. It's like, what's 70 cents now? Which is 72 to be exact today. But then you have the political tensions too, obviously. And I think there's a big divide right now. And everyone's angry with. Well, not everybody. There's a lot of angry people angry with Americans. I live in Mexico. I say this all the time. I ensure that people know that I'm Canadian. Like, that's a, it's one of the first things I say, especially when I know they're already coming in hot. They see me and they're like, American.
Daniel Fosh
I'm like, no, so funny. Canadians. There was like a meme that came out. It was like, Canadians need to put a tariff on the, the little Canada flags that Americans put on their backpack while they're traveling.
David Hutchinson
That's so true. I' so true. For the, for the first time, someone actually called me out on my tik tok being like, he's actually American. He's just saying he's Canadian. And I was like, no, I, I swear to God. What do you want to see on my birth certificate? What do you mean?
Daniel Fosh
That's funny.
David Hutchinson
Which is crazy. But I think the, the political tensions obviously have a huge part in this. I think they're just trying to. But I don't know.
Daniel Fosh
I think it's a combination of factors. Yeah, look, I think that there, look, it's the same thing as like booing at the, at the national anthem. Look, like, I don't think most Canadians are, are poor sports enough to say like, it's kind of like, you know, when, when big political, like the loud people on the far right and the loud people on the far left and most people are like in the middle. I think most Canadians are pretty reasonable and aren't going to try and punish 300 million Americans for, you know, the actions of one dude.
David Hutchinson
Right.
Daniel Fosh
Honestly. Right. In the words of one dude, like, because those are really the people who suffer. Right, right. The local businesses in these, in these tourist heavy areas. That being said, I think like there's been a combination of factors. The Canadian dollar has been weakened relative to the U.S. canada's economy is F'd. We hold a ton of real estate. And we can talk about that because NAR did a really interesting study on it. Canadians hold a ton of real estate in the U.S. they're the second, second largest by dollar volume after China and the largest by number, number of properties. So we buy smaller value properties than Chinese investors. China would probably be the biggest because they're buying a bunch of commercial or like large scale real estate. So you know, it's like 13% of all, all properties, all foreign owned properties are owned by Canadians in the US So if, if that becomes a trend that they're selling, it can, it could move the needle in some of these places like Florida, Arizona. Florida and Arizona, I think are the biggest ones. Right. That's would be like the hugest things where all the snowbirds go down and buy their houses to escape the winter golf.
David Hutchinson
Big golf towns.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah, for sure.
David Hutchinson
Canadians have been significant buyers in the US real estate market, with investments totaling approximately 89 billion between 2014 and 2024. They account for 13% of foreign home buyers, primarily focusing in Florida, Arizona. But this notable increase In Canadians selling U.S. properties surveys indicate that seven times as many Canadians are selling their U.S. homes in 2025 compared to the previous year, with a 40% decrease in Canadian buyers in Arizona, which is attributed to eroding confidence in the US Market stability and anticipated potential recession. Oh, it has. We talked about this on a previous episode. It says tax implications. The Firpta. Firpta. Canadians selling US Real estate are subject to the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax act, which mandates a 15% withholding tax on the gross sale price. Exemptions exist if the sale price is 300,000 or less and the buyer intends to reside in the property.
Daniel Fosh
There you go.
David Hutchinson
Interesting. Let's see. There's a little more here.
Daniel Fosh
I think it's hard for Canadians to get mortgages for US Properties right now as well. So I'm just going to try and pull up this Wall Street Journal article about Canadians cashing out of their American home. It's so funny that the people on the COVID of this news here.
David Hutchinson
There we go.
Daniel Fosh
Look at these beauties.
David Hutchinson
Yeah, it says Canadians. Oh, are those Canadians? Those are the people they chose.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah, Canadians.
David Hutchinson
Oh, yeah. Shorts. Some. Some walking shoes.
Daniel Fosh
Just a couple. That's like your. That's your Canadian American homeowner right there. Like, it's just boomers. Like, most of them probably selling because they're retiring, downsizing. Like, they don't need that man track there. They're probably just going to buy a.
David Hutchinson
Condo on my street where I live in Mexico. There's like, it's mostly. Where I live in my community is mostly retirees.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah, I got all these like you, right?
David Hutchinson
Just like me. Shut her down, baby. No, I got the. These neighbors are like the sweetest people. And it's like whenever. I always love watching the retired couples just go about their daily business because they're always just. They have the nicest plants. Like, my plants on the front are just getting rocked by the sunlight. Dying, folding over yellow. This guy across from me has got just the most lush garden with like, his house has all the bells and whistles just like they look. That's them. That's the couple right there.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah. Well, there's a Gravel front lawn, a couple plants, only a few to be honest.
David Hutchinson
Is that Arizona? Yeah.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah, that's probably Arizona. It looks like it.
David Hutchinson
Oh, so I got a stat here. Canadians often pay cash for US properties, 51% in 2023. But cross border mortgages from Canadian banks like RBC BMO are popular. They still have like strict requirements for non residents, which I think is common.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah, well. Oh, like domestic banks in the U.S. yeah. But there's also the factor of like Canadian lenders who will, who will lend to you if you're buying a primary residence. And I think that they've really scaled back those programs for like understandable reasons.
David Hutchinson
Right.
Daniel Fosh
I think there's just a lot of volatility, potential volatility In Canadian, the U.S. property values, a currency exchange, et cetera. Like if I'm rbc, RBC has like an amazing cross border lending program for Canadians. If I'm rbc, I might just say, look, I'm just going to scale that one back a little bit to try and de risk on. You know, there's just too many variables. There's, there's property values in both Canada and the U.S. there's net worth in both Canada and the U.S. there'S Canadian dollar to U.S. dollar, there's tariffs, there's trade war. Right. Like there's so many variables that make it really difficult to, to make that a, you know, predictable lending play. So I, I get why some lenders are scaling those programs back for sure.
David Hutchinson
I was trying to look into because one, one city we didn't mention was Austin, but I know that Austin's kind of going through it right now. They're having a bit of some, some real estate struggles.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah, I think we, we have another episode coming up on that. Right. Is that where we're going to do the What's. Yeah, because, because then. So stay tuned for the next episode because we're going to talk about kind of like the areas of the US the, you know, the winners and losers, but because I think, you know, it's interesting. Basically the opposite of what happened during COVID is happening right now. Like yeah, every in, in, you know, 2020, 2021, everyone was like piling into Miami because. Or like Florida because it was like the only place in the world that was open pretty much. And like everyone in the world was in Florida in like 2020, honestly, 2021. And then, you know, similar thing in Texas. I think, you know, people were going there because of the politics or whatever. And then now I think you're seeing a Lot of people actually leaving. If you go look at the hottest places in different markets, it seems to be like people going back to New York, SoCal. Right. Which is funny. I just thought. I didn't. I. You know, I think a lot of people thought it was going to be a lasting change, but so a lot of these, A lot of these Texas cities that Texas is like so good at building, responding to demand, right? So, you know, they get a ton of demand. They're like, all right, let's build a bunch of buildings. And then by the time, you know, buildings don't just happen instantly, right? It's not like, you know, I don't know, like you're baking, baking a cake, you got a bunch of people lining up. You b. You bake all the cakes. Takes you a couple of days, give them the cakes, they go away. Takes you two years to build a, you know, you know, subdivision or high rise building or whatever. And now all of a sudden the people have already gone back to California or New York or whatever, and you're like, oh, here we are with a building that's got 20% vacancy.
David Hutchinson
I just, I just pulled up a stat that I want to talk to you about. 900,000 fewer Canadians crossed the U.S. border in March compared to 2024.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah, yeah, I saw that as well. Where is that one from? Let me see if I can pull.
David Hutchinson
That up, which is crazy.
Daniel Fosh
Can you screen share from your thing or no?
David Hutchinson
Oh, buddy, if I touch this computer, it's going to blow up. We're on a roll right now with my. Just so everyone knows, if you're ever listening to this or watching this and you see glitches, it's my end. Okay. I live in Tulum, Mexico.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah, we did get a review that commented on that. It was like, there's too many gaps in your audio and honestly, like, we're. We're pretty low on post production here. So, like, I'm just tell you the truth, like, we're just really scrappy. We'll get it together, I promise. So sometimes I'm. I'll finish saying something and then I don't know, goes into space, right? And then it go. And then go has to get to Mexico and it has to pay tariffs at the border now. Then Dave gets it like three minutes later and he'll respond. And, and the platform's supposed to shorten that, but I guess it missed some. And I'm really sorry for those of you who are listening who have to deal with that also, it's not that Dave Is like taking his time to process what I'm saying either. So he's a smart guy, he can respond pretty quickly.
David Hutchinson
Like this Dave guy is just really.
Daniel Fosh
So out to lunch. This guy.
David Hutchinson
Half the time. Half the time. Just so the listeners know, I only catch every like fifth word of what Dan is saying and the stress that I feel on my end is just incredible because I'm trying to put together little bits and pieces of what he's saying and I don't get it. So you gotta hang in there with us because I'm back, back to Toronto soon, which I got Starlink here, which doesn't. I think it's just the. In general. I also. My computer is not doing so great and just for those that are listening, you can't. I can't just go to Apple Mexico because the keyboard is in Spanish. So I don't have a choice. And if you.
Daniel Fosh
That's what it was.
David Hutchinson
Right. So I can't. My computer is having a hard time and I need a new one. But unfortunately there's nothing I can do. It is what it is. Well, this is.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah, yeah, this is it. I was trying to add blocks mats there, make it look prettier, but we're good. So it says nearly 900,000 fewer people went to the US in March as cross border travel plummet. So this is, this is just at the border.
David Hutchinson
Not.
Daniel Fosh
I think that would be all borders. Yeah, probably all. But data shows one of the worst year over year drops recorded outside of the COVID 19 crisis. Wow, nice picture of a car driving one.
David Hutchinson
Just one. Yeah, that's gotta be at like. I don't even know what time that.
Daniel Fosh
Would be at 4am Cross border travel from Canada to the US year over year. So March 2024 about 5 million people and then March 2025 about 4.1 million people. I mean, I don't know, it's like. I don't know. Yeah, I guess that's pretty big. 25 drop. 20% drop.
David Hutchinson
It's a whole. It's. It's everything you said. It's the dollar being. But I mean the dollar has been kind of like this for a while, to be honest. Yeah, people are just having a go.
Daniel Fosh
Says the decline is notable because March is typically one of the busiest months for US bound travel with many people vacationing over spring break to sunnier climates. Which makes sense. Right?
David Hutchinson
Right.
Daniel Fosh
March break. Cool.
David Hutchinson
But they're only accounting for land border. Is that what that says?
Daniel Fosh
Yeah, well, yeah, this is just past. Past. Oh no. They have air as well, so passenger vehicles. Wow. The majority of people go to the US and passenger vehicles. There you go.
David Hutchinson
That's crazy.
Daniel Fosh
3.4 million. Oh, so this is land and air.
David Hutchinson
Wow.
Daniel Fosh
Air travel. Air travel didn't really change. It was. It was 1. 1.4 to 1.3. I don't know. That bar is almost. I don't. These bars are pointless. This bar is bigger than that bar. That doesn't make any sense.
David Hutchinson
Their editor just tossed it in. Just put a bar on here.
Daniel Fosh
Come on, get it together.
David Hutchinson
Same editors as our podcast as of right now.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah.
David Hutchinson
Interesting. Okay.
Daniel Fosh
Palm Springs. Oh, yeah, they have Palm Springs loves Canada. I didn't see that. Cool.
David Hutchinson
Like, is that real? I want to. I'm trying to fact check that.
Daniel Fosh
I don't know. I was there. Like, that's. I know exactly where that is. That's literally the. That. That rooftop is the rooftop of the Thompson. I believe that. Yeah, I believe they would do that.
David Hutchinson
Interesting.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah. Yeah. I was on that rooftop like a month and a half ago. I could have been there. While this photo is being taken here.
David Hutchinson
In the background is at the spa in your cold plunge.
Daniel Fosh
No, they have the best spa in the world there. Or in the U.S. sorry, the. But it's not the. Not at the Thompson. It's etiquette. I don't know how to say it. Sachet or something like that. It's a. So that. So Palm Springs was founded around like, these, like, these baths. Right? The springs, they were like mineral baths that you would just go and, like, people would go into the desert and hang out with the indigenous people and take these mineral baths. No joke. Like, it was actually, like, that's how the whole thing started.
David Hutchinson
Interesting.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah.
David Hutchinson
And now you just go and pay a couple grand to go sit in a chlorinated pool.
Daniel Fosh
It wasn't that much, but. Yeah, no, they have, like. They do these mineral baths still.
David Hutchinson
They actually do.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah. Like, 14 minerals in them. They're like no more than that. 40. It's really good. You feel like. You feel. Your skin feels amazing after. But it does, honestly. We gotta go. I'm gonna take you one day. They got it. The. They got the. At the airport here. You can see that. Look at that. Palm Springs loves Canada at the airport. It's wicked there, by the way. It's like 80 outdoors. I gotta. We're going to Palm Springs.
David Hutchinson
Let's go podcast on the road.
Daniel Fosh
100.
David Hutchinson
Is that. Oh, duty free?
Daniel Fosh
Yeah.
David Hutchinson
Off topic. I just talked. I. I sold a villa to a bunch of pilots from WestJet and I was. This is just off topic, but I want you to know they actually fly the plane. Okay. It's not. I thought it was a push up. No, dude, I thought. Yeah. I thought they were just tossing a button on autopilot. I swear to God. What are they doing up there? It's in the. There's nothing around. What are they steering around?
Daniel Fosh
And he said they gotta fly it.
David Hutchinson
He said the only time they do auto landing is if the weather is, like, so bad they can't see. I also asked him what's the best and worst airport? He said any. He said Japan. Like Korea. Those are the best airports. Super organized, never delays, just like, on it. And he said the worst were Pearson and Heathrow. Fun facts.
Daniel Fosh
Interesting. Yeah, my. I was just at the Miami airport. It's. I didn't like, Not. Do not like that airport at all. I don't know. Just weird. Small. They like, they kind of. For if you're taking an Air Canada flight, they kind of just put you in this, like, little tiny part of the airport where there's like three things to eat, which is like, one of them is the best sandwiches in the world. What one earl of sandwich is called?
David Hutchinson
No, I never heard of it.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah. If you got a Cubano from there, it's like, oh, man, I can still taste it right now. And I'm. I had it yesterday.
David Hutchinson
Oh, you were just there.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah, it was yesterday.
David Hutchinson
Oh, yeah. How was. How was the. You went to dawn?
Daniel Fosh
Yeah, it was good, man. Yeah. Uncle G. I don't know. I mean, not. Not. I never thought I'd really enjoy something like that, to be honest with you. I was. My dad gave me the tickets, so. Because he's in, like, Grant's program, I think. But I. I liked it more than I thought. I. I didn't really learn all that much, but the networking was sick. Like, I think this is one of the things. And like, this is. Look, while, you know, we could kind of circle it back to value for the listeners, you and I are going to start building out an event series like this for real estate professionals. And then probably eventually, you know, you know, bring in kind of end users. And the one thing I found cool about that conference was like, somebody sits down beside you, they're, hey, I'm so and so, you know, here's what I do. What do you do? You know, like, then there's that environment that, like, everybody there is, like, trying to do deals, trying to level up, trying to, like, build their network, you know, it wasn't like, I Don't know. I've been to a lot of conferences where you kind of just ignore the people around you, you know, and that defeats the purpose of going to a conference for sure.
David Hutchinson
I actually. So, yeah, no, I. I used to speak, or I still do speak with Inman. Inman Connect.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah, called.
David Hutchinson
And it's cool because I can show you. Not that you don't doubt me, but I just did a deal. I sold a house in Toronto based off of an agent that I met in New York who's a New York agent who somehow met some guy at one of another conference about other stuff. She knew me because I met her in the hallway in between, like, certain, like, foyers. She recommended me to sell the house. So I got a sale of like a $1.4 million house in tobacco because of a New York agent that I met at a conference. And I've done multiple deals in Tulum because of people. Agents that I've met all over, like, America at these conferences. But that's the biggest and the most like, benefit of those. Those conferences. And that's why they call it Inman Connect for that one specifically. It's like, yeah, you find more value walking between like, whatever they're called, little like rooms between. You find more value walking between rooms, meeting and talking to people than being in the room.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah.
David Hutchinson
Because I spoke at the event and I kind of like, did a lot of ambassador stuff with them. I remember the main, like, head ambassador girl was like, you need to be in the rooms. Like, we need more people in the rooms to fill up the front row. And I was like, I don't really find value in that. Like, there are some really great speakers, don't get me wrong. But I love going and connecting with people and meeting them, getting them on Instagram and like keeping conversations going with them and doing business with those people. That's the. The biggest, like, most benefit from, from any sort of conference I've ever been to, in my opinion. So I agree.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah, Like, I. I think most of the stuff you're gonna learn, there's nothing groundbreaking. Right. Like most of you can just learn on Google or like chat GPT now, right?
David Hutchinson
For sure.
Daniel Fosh
But it is the people, it's the accountability. I don't know. I mean, that's why you do stuff like that.
David Hutchinson
What about the only thing I don't like about some of those? I was gonna go to one in Dallas. Tom. No. Anyways, doesn't matter. And they dance when he comes out, you know.
Daniel Fosh
Oh, yeah, I won't.
David Hutchinson
I Refuse. I'll sit down. I'm not dancing.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah, I always find that weird. And also when. When, like, they. I. This is funny because I was thinking about this the other. I don't know why I was laying awake and thinking, like, they came up with this cool idea. So you're gonna run this by you live on the show. So, you know. You know, like at the beginning of the conferences when they're like, you know, are you excited to see so and so. And then you're like, yeah. And then they' oh, that was bad. You know, it's like they always do it and they try and get everybody pumped up or, like, they'll make people chant. You know what I mean?
David Hutchinson
I do.
Daniel Fosh
I'm not into that stuff, man. At all. But you know what I am into? I am into the beat of We Will Rock you by Queen. So what I'm going to do is I'm going to get a. Oh, I'm going to get. Exactly. Dude, I thought about me introducing you at our conference and I'm like, okay, all right, everyone, here's what we're going to do. We're going to get a better freaking bass. I'm going to get a big bass drum and I'm going to start hitting it and I'm going to do the dune dun. I'm going to make everybody do the clap. It's gonna be sick, man. So anyway, that's an innovation, dude.
David Hutchinson
Dude, I'm so telling.
Daniel Fosh
That's not. Everybody knows that song. Nobody doesn't get pumped up when they hear we will be Rocky by Queen.
David Hutchinson
Dude, if you don't. If we don't do that for, like, that's gotta happen. I need that to happen.
Daniel Fosh
It is. I just told you, I committed to it. It's done. I gotta buy a bass drum. It's gonna have, like, a sick logo on it.
David Hutchinson
He's got it all planned out.
Daniel Fosh
Just one drum. No, no. Kit just said, literally, just one drum.
David Hutchinson
Hit one stick. One drum. That's it.
Daniel Fosh
Yeah, it's gonna happen. And then. Because then you need people's attention if they're tuned out. You can just walk over to the bass drum and be like.
David Hutchinson
Yeah, we need someone with a triangle. Just for the one part. We're good. Unreal.
Daniel Fosh
Well, I feel like this episode might be over because we're talking about nothing anymore. So tune in for the next episode on Real Estate Without Borders podcast and we're gonna talk about the winners and losers in the US Real estate market. And then. We weren't joking about the conference, by the way. Go to conferences, meet people. We're gonna have one. We're gonn. First one's gonna be in Toronto, but we're gonna start scaling this thing for real estate professionals around the world. To be honest with you, a big, big part of it's gonna be using tech and AI. I mean that's what Dave and I are both at a, at an AI and tech company that sells real estate. And we want to help, help agents have, or leverage that to have a global presence in real estate. Like we're literally in the most connected world we've ever lived in and agents are still selling properties fucking 10 minutes from their house.
David Hutchinson
True. You know, no, I think like why. It's crazy. I think this is off topic again, but whatever. This episode's already, we're just talking at 30, 33 of my income for real estate is agent to agent referrals. And most of that, I don't know the actual percentage, but I would say most of that is probably from agents out of country, not just out of city. You know, that's from, from networking, doing like the proper networking. But.
Daniel Fosh
Well, I think like a big part of this is, you know, we're talking about travel, tourism and, and like a big part of capital flows, right? If people's, if people's money and, and like regardless of what you think is going to ha. Or regardless of what I think is going to happen, what you think is going to happen. You the listener. If you think Americans are going to want to put their money into other economies, which you're hearing lots about, then, you know, and they're, they're going to try and find second citizenships and all this stuff. Then why aren't you trying to sell them properties in Dubai or Mexico or Canada or whatever, right? If you're, if you're a US Realtor, why not get a referral with a guy like Dave or an agent in Dubai or whatever. You know, you can sit there until the cows come home trying to convince them it's a bad idea or you can try and make money on doing it. Right. And so to me, when we talk about tourism, like a lot of this is capital flows and what's the biggest way that capital moves from one country to another? It's not stocks, it's not Bitcoin, whatever. People, when they, when they go to, from one place to another, they're investing in that country, they're going to buy dirt in that country, they're literally physically invest in that country. Real estate is by far, number one. It's the biggest asset class in the world, residential real estate. Right. It's like $13 trillion or something like that compared to, I don't know, equities or whatever. I'll pull up the actual stat. I'll put it in the next episode. You know, if you're going to move to a country or semi, move to a country, spend six months of the year living in whatever, you're going to buy a house there. And so this is why real estate and Real Estate Without Borders really matters.
David Hutchinson
Boom. Just like that. What an ending. Recapped it all. Brought it home, folks. Just brought it all home.
Real Estate Without Borders - Episode Summary
Episode Title: Declining Travel to the US - Will it Impact Real Estate?
Release Date: April 22, 2025
Host: Daniel Fosh
Guest: David Hutchinson
In this insightful episode of Real Estate Without Borders, hosts Daniel Fosh and David Hutchinson delve into the recent decline in Canadian travel to the United States and its potential ramifications on the US real estate market. They explore the underlying economic and political factors driving this trend, analyze its impact on real estate investments, and discuss the broader implications for American investors.
One of the primary reasons Canadians are reducing their travel to the US is the weakened Canadian dollar. David Hutchinson highlights, “[01:20] David Hutchinson: ...we just can't afford to or it's not as desirable based off of where the Canadian dollar is currently positioning itself.”
Daniel Fosh adds context by explaining the currency dynamics: “[01:44] Daniel Fosh: ...the DXY, which is the dollar index, has been down. The USD is crashing.”
The depreciating Canadian dollar means that Americans become more expensive for Canadians, reducing their purchasing power and making US travel less attractive.
As winter passes and Canadian weather becomes milder, the necessity for "snowbirds"—Canadians who migrate south during colder months—diminishes. Daniel notes, “[00:50] David Hutchinson: ...any reason that Canadians might have to go south is diminishing as the weather gets warmer in Canada.”
Political factors also play a role. David suggests that beyond economic reasons, lingering tensions and negative perceptions of Americans may discourage Canadians from traveling: “[06:55] David Hutchinson: ...there's a lot of angry people angry with Americans.”
The episode reveals a substantial decline in Canadian investment in US real estate. David states, “[08:53] David Hutchinson: ...Canadians hold a ton of real estate in the US... if they're selling, it could move the needle in places like Florida and Arizona.”
Moreover, a staggering statistic is shared: “[16:20] Daniel Fosh: ...900,000 fewer Canadians crossed the U.S. border in March compared to 2024.”
Key regions traditionally popular with Canadian investors, such as Florida, Arizona, and Palm Springs, are experiencing notable impacts. Daniel observes, “[18:34] Daniel Fosh: ...Palm Springs loves Canada.”
These areas, known for their vacation homes and attractive climates, are seeing reduced demand as Canadian buyers retreat.
The episode discusses how changes in investment patterns are influencing the real estate market. David notes, “[11:09] Daniel Fosh: Canadians often pay cash for US properties, 51% in 2023,” but also highlights the difficulties amid fluctuating currencies and stricter mortgage requirements: “[11:33] David Hutchinson: ...Canadian lenders have scaled back their cross-border lending programs.”
For Canadians selling their US properties, the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act (FIRPTA) imposes a 15% withholding tax on the gross sale price. David explains, “[09:51] David Hutchinson: ...FIRPTA mandates a 15% withholding tax on the gross sale price.”
This tax burden, along with exemptions for sales below $300,000 and properties intended for personal residence, adds another layer of complexity for Canadian investors.
With Canadian investment cooling, regions heavily reliant on foreign buyers may face increased vacancies and price adjustments. Daniel raises concerns about market stability: “[07:52] Daniel Fosh: ...volatile and downward price discovery and issues.”
This shift could lead to slower growth or even declines in property values in affected areas, presenting both challenges and opportunities for investors.
The hosts emphasize the importance of diversifying investment strategies internationally. David asserts, “[26:00] David Hutchinson: ...real estate is the biggest asset class in the world, residential real estate. It's like $13 trillion or something.”
By expanding portfolios beyond traditional markets, investors can mitigate risks associated with regional economic downturns and currency fluctuations.
During the episode, the hosts encounter technical glitches, leading to a momentary shift in focus. David humorously remarks on the situation, “[14:46] David Hutchinson: ...this Dave guy is just really...”
The conversation transitions into the value of networking at real estate conferences. David shares personal success stories facilitated by connections made at events like Inman Connect: “[21:59] David Hutchinson: ...I got a sale of like a $1.4 million house in Toronto based off of an agent that I met in New York.”
Daniel encourages listeners to leverage global opportunities by building international networks, emphasizing the podcast's mission: “[26:25] Daniel Fosh: ...this is why real estate and Real Estate Without Borders really matters.”
Daniel and David wrap up the episode by reiterating the significance of understanding international travel trends and their impact on real estate markets. They urge real estate professionals to adapt by embracing global connections and diversifying investments to navigate the evolving landscape shaped by economic and political shifts.
Notable Quotes:
Stay Tuned:
In the next episode, Daniel and David will explore the winners and losers in the US real estate market, providing valuable insights for investors navigating these changes.