How Global Oil Prices Are Driving Real Estate Shifts

Summary

Podcast Summary: Real Estate Without Borders

Episode: How Global Oil Prices Are Driving Real Estate Shifts

Date: May 22, 2026
Host: Real Estate Without Borders (A)
Guest: Cameron Hutchinson, Global Money Mover (B)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the impact of global oil prices and currency shifts on international real estate markets. The host and expert guest, Cameron Hutchinson, analyze how energy markets, inflation, and currency fluctuations are driving changes in real estate investment opportunities for Americans and other international investors. The conversation covers notable markets including the US, Canada, Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Mexico, and provides forward-looking insights on where investors should focus their attention amid economic turmoil.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Global Context: Oil, Inflation and Currency

[00:19 – 05:23]

• Oil and energy markets are creating significant shifts in global economies, affecting real estate directly and indirectly.
• Gasoline prices in the US are up 34%, pushing up inflation and lowering consumer and investor buying power:

  “Ultimately what it does is it lowers people's buying power across the board and it raises inflation.” (B) [01:13]

• Federal Reserve policy changes: Pressure is mounting for the new Fed chair to lower interest rates, which would weaken the USD and potentially make US assets more attractive to foreigners – but reduce Americans’ overseas buying power.

2. USD Weakness and Cross-Border Buying Power

[03:04 – 05:23]

• The US dollar’s recent decline has strengthened the Canadian dollar and other currencies, impacting purchasing power across borders.
  • Canadians buying in the US now have “3% purchasing strength” (B) [03:58], making American properties effectively cheaper.
  • Meanwhile, for Americans, “their buying power just went down” (A) [05:21].
• The trend is similar for the Euro and GBP: Both are strengthening against the USD, making international investing a double-edged sword depending on your base currency.

3. Spotlight on International Markets

[05:23 – 09:54]

• Portugal:
  • Despite government restrictions, saw 17.7% price growth by Q3 2025.
  • Even with cooling, “it’s hard to find returns like that in other markets” (B) [06:19].
• Spain & Italy:
  • Still experiencing “relatively decent growth rates” in their prime markets, directly affected by oil market instability.
• Mexico:
  • Americans have more buying power due to a weakening peso (2.5% drop since April).
  • However, key markets like Tulum face oversupply concerns and yield compression, especially in “one-bedroom condos…you’re not getting your returns on them” (B) [08:12].
  • Currency volatility presents both opportunities and risks depending on timing.

4. Supply, Demand & Population Shifts

[09:54 – 11:48]

• Excess supply can arise quickly when demand (often foreign-driven) falls, as seen in both US and Canadian markets.
• Canadian immigration has slowed, even turning negative, leading to lower rents, prices, and absorption:

  “Population growth is falling now for the first time in ever I think in Canadian history." (A) [11:11]

5. The Role of Consumer Sentiment & Interest Rates

[11:48 – 13:58]

• Consumer sentiment is at an “all-time low for the United States” (B) [17:10], deterring big investments and impacting property demand.
• Higher interest rates and borrowing costs, both domestically and abroad, make real estate investment riskier and less accessible, especially for leveraged buyers.
• The panel notes the difficulty of timing property markets, especially when currency and rate cycles overlap.

6. Market Cycles & Investment Timing

[13:58 – 17:06]

• A predictable real estate cycle:
  • Currency weakness → demand shrinks → prices fall → bottoming → recovery as currencies strengthen.
  • In international markets, exchange rates have a larger impact than interest rates due to prevalence of cash purchases:

    “Your forex trade is more important to the cycle than interest rate.” (A) [15:21]

• The expectation is that the current weakness in the USD provides a “couple of years of probably pretty good buying opportunities” (A) [16:04] for those willing to accept risk.

7. Illiquidity & Long-Term Risks

[17:06 – 19:32]

• Real estate’s inherent illiquidity means forecasting FX or market shifts over typical 5-10 year hold periods is near impossible:

  “We can't even forecast where currency is going to be accurately within a quarter or a half year, let alone…in a 5 to 10 year time.” (B) [17:10]

• Risk and reward remain tightly linked, and even seasoned experts can’t predict market turns with confidence.

8. Asset Accumulation and Wealth Generation

[19:32 – 21:54]

• The middle class is looking to break into “real estate without borders,” leveraging smart international investments.
• Books like “Capital in the 21st Century” are cited:

  “If your return on capital outpaces your return on labor…then disparity is going to continue to increase.” (A) [20:42]

  • The path to wealth lies in accumulating assets and leveraging growth.

9. Rising Costs for International Investors: Flights & Logistics

[21:54 – 22:39]

• The cost of international travel has soared, with flights up an average of 42% since February.
• For buyers eyeing properties in Japan or Europe, “$25,000 house is great, but to go see it four times, cost you 10.” (B) [22:29]

10. Oil Price Scenarios and Global Macro Implications

[22:39 – 26:24]

• High oil prices create competing risks:
  • Stagflation or outright recession, both bad for consumers and real estate.
  • Whether the current oil price range leads to slow-burning inflation or a sharper recession remains uncertain:

    “Either outcome is horrible. Like you're in stagflation or you're in a recession. Both are garbage.” (A) [23:54]

• Knock-on effects include higher fertilizer and food costs, lengthening the inflation cycle.

11. Which Countries Stand to Gain?

[26:24 – 28:14]

• Canada:
  • Well-positioned thanks to energy and fertilizer resources but needs to expand trade partners.
• Norway:
  • State-managed oil wealth leads to increased profits exported to neighbors.
• Russia, Venezuela:
  • Short-term economic benefits from higher oil prices noted, though with caveats for global stability.

12. Flight to Quality: US and Canadian Real Estate

[28:14 – End]

• Expect increased “flight to quality” into US and Canadian real estate, especially as currency trends favor foreign buyers.

  “You start to see this flight to quality happening that we've been describing would happen. It's already kind of becoming evident in certain markets.” (A) [28:19]

• Anticipate future episodes with more focus on how foreigners can invest in US property as these macro trends persist.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Currencies hold dear on the Fed interest rates…interest rates go lower, lending becomes cheaper…ultimately what it does as well is it weakens the US dollar.” (B) [01:22]
• “Their [Americans'] buying power just went down.” (A) [05:21]
• “You’re seeing the same thing on Mexico now and the forward trajectory of most of these places. There’s still a lot of questions involved.” (B) [09:45]
• “Consumer sentiment is at a fresh all time low for the United States right now. If you want to think about this…that’s essentially the mood ring of the economy as a whole.” (B) [17:10]
• “The faster that you can…the more efficiently you can convert your time into assets, the more efficiently you will progress towards the wealth, the capital class of people versus the labor class of people.” (A) [20:54]
• “All of a sudden, you see an extra 42% on, like, a $2,000 ticket every time you want to go there…I think that would change around my personal, you know, $25,000 house is great, but to go see it four times, cost you 10.” (B) [22:29]
• “If I knew exactly where the markets were going to go, I wouldn’t be talking to you, I’d be sitting on a beach.” (B) [18:55]

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Timestamps for Critical Segments

• [01:13] – Impact of oil prices on inflation and buying power
• [05:21] – The dollar’s weakness and effect on American investors
• [06:19] – Portugal’s real estate surge (17.7% growth)
• [08:12] – Oversupply and yield compression in Mexican markets
• [11:11] – Canadian population stagnation and real estate impact
• [17:10] – US consumer sentiment hits all-time low
• [20:42] – Wealth accumulation through capital vs. labor (Piketty reference)
• [22:29] – International flight costs surge, affecting investment rationale
• [23:54] – Oil’s threat of stagflation vs. recession
• [28:19] – Shift toward US and Canadian real estate as “quality” markets

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Conclusion

The episode offers a pragmatic, data-driven analysis of how macroeconomic and energy market disruptions are playing out in global real estate. Investors are cautioned to stay abreast of currency shifts, energy costs, and supply/demand cycles, especially as these factors rapidly change buying power and opportunity sets from country to country. Both the US and Canada are highlighted as key markets to watch for international capital inflows, while volatility in Europe and Mexico presents both risk and opportunity.

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For global real estate investors, the clear message is: Pay close attention to oil, currencies, and demand cycles — and be ready to act as windows of opportunity arise.

Transcript

[A]

All right, welcome back to the Real Estate Without Borders podcast. I am joined here for the last several weeks now by Cameron Hutchinson, global money mover extraordinaire. I. Yeah, you, you got a lot of stuff that you researched here that, that we're going to cover today. So tell me what we're talking about.

[B]

I thought it's been a little bit, although we've been focusing on it when we first started doing these things, is looking at the markets. But given that it's a real estate podcast, I thought what we should do is kind of look back at April altogether, see what's been going on, but then focus it in and provide a little bit more context on what it could mean for potential international purchases and kind of dive into it. So really what I thought would be good because the world's been moving rapidly over the last four weeks, five weeks, obviously is run through standard big markets if we want to kind of just jump right into it with the main source of a lot of investments within the real estate side and a lot of the listeners being US dollar. But what's been going on in the States, things to look out for. And then we'll jump through a couple other ones that have had some interesting things. We've been talking about it a fair amount still similar thing, energy markets. Right. And availability to cash and how this is affecting the global market. A lot of it has to do with the conflict in Iran. But what you're starting to see recently, which is causing some strain within the US Economy, you won't see it in the stock market, which one day we could probably look at returns versus real estate versus stock market, which could be an interesting one. But you're seeing the price of gasoline go up. I think right now it's up 34%. You're seeing photos from California at over five bucks a gallon. You're thinking about it from a real estate investment side. You're like, okay, maybe the flights are going to cost more. And that's a big portion of the news. But ultimately what it does does is it lowers people's buying power across the and it raises inflation. And as I've mentioned before, currencies hold dear on the Fed interest rates. And there's two things that are going to be pushing it a little bit forward as we kind of continue throughout the year. One, this inflation increase that'll be coming through from gasoline prices as well as other restrictions coming through from trade disruptions in that market. But also one of the things that we pointed out, which is now kind of continue to move forward. Is the new Fed chair committee reason we keep touching in on it. There's good pressure for the new person who's taking over the Fed to push interest rates lower. Interest rates go lower, lending becomes cheaper. That's great for multitude of reasons, but ultimately what it does as well is it weakens the US dollar. And so, you know, we've seen it kind of extrapolate out further for the Canadians. This is the first time in years where we can say that the CAT has strengthened as much. You know, it's been the most impressive. Even with weak economic data coming out of Canada, we've still gained back a good amount of value on our side versus the dollar. So Canadians looking to purchase in the

[A]

States, is that purely USD getting weaker or is it like a petrodollar of cad?

[B]

We both follow petro. You know, we strengthen because we export a lot of oil. We've been decoupling more and more from that. From a Canadian standpoint, ultimately it's a bit of both. If you're looking at employment and everything else from economic factors within the Canadian economy, it's not showing the strongest signs of strength. So from right now, I would say it's mainly the dollar falling off, but it's been about a 3% change from peak to low. And one of the things that we'll dive into a little bit later is how that will affect your purchasing power. So we've seen it go back down to 135 or towards 135. I do it reverse. So I apologize for Canadians who do it.

[A]

I$CAD's like the right way to do it anyways, right?

[B]

Yeah, it works better for me also. It makes a little bit more sense, but we haven't seen that since 2024. So Canadians looking to purchase abroad, especially down in the States, all of a sudden, 3% purchase power, purchasing strength, you're looking at a million bucks. What's that, $30,000 cheaper? In theory, the properties become for them. The market's starting to shift a little bit on what it will look like in the future. But forecasts are all finger in the air anyways. The euro is increased against the dollar, so that'll show a little bit more. And the pounds increased against the dollar as well. So you're still seeing a bit of kind of an identity crisis with the dollar these days and just being more concerned about their debts and so on and how that's kind of affecting the purchasing power for international investments. Or alternatively, if you're selling out from an international investment the funds that you'd bring back on it.

[A]

So, okay, so this to me impacts the demand for US Real foreign. Foreign demand for US Real estate probably makes more foreign investors likely to purchase real estate in the US but it likely decreases this the demand of US investors buying properties outside of the US Which I think is, you know, that's probably the most of our listeners is Americans looking to buy in other countries.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

So their buying power just went down.

[B]

Went down, yeah, 100%. Now currency markets are the most fluid things. They change around just as much as the stock market and you watch them jump and bounce around. Again, as we've said before, shouldn't be your thesis from an investment, but are there times where if this is something you're looking at, from a Canadian perspective, it looks great, but from an American perspective you're looking at making a substantial investment and all of a sudden you've lost 1.5% on over a million dollar purchases. That's a pretty good change on it. You know, one of the interesting things here, which again, taking it a little bit away from the economic side, and I'm not sure if you had a chance to look at it that I thought was kind of cool, is looking at some key markets and what's been going on with their pricing and their price growth. So I pulled a bunch of, I'll call it kind of the typical ones. You know, we've been hearing more and more about Portugal and that that market's been kind of quieting off a little bit. A lot of that due to government requirements. But even still, by the end of Q3 of 2025, they had seen a 17.7 in price growth across the board. There'll be markets that are higher, markets that are low, but there's still from a one year return on an investment. Not that real estate normally is 17.7%. It's hard to find returns like that in other markets. And hypothetically, if you're selling from those places, you've achieved those growth and now the Euro being stronger is again beneficial for you. So it's a strange thing that can work on both sides. You know, what was this saying Spain, we've gotten similar growths, although their economy's having some issues. The Euro is kind of faltering a little bit from that. A lot of that has to do with oil as well, because they have less oil stability within it. But Spain and Italy are still seeing relatively decent growth rates in the prime markets and continuing to see that within returns on these investments as well. One of the more interesting things that came from some of the information that we were looking at because Americans, Canadians, et cetera, we look towards Mexico a fair amount, is that there's been some oversaturation in some key markets within there and you're starting to see some ripple effects from yield returns on properties. And the peso continues to weaken as well. Americans have more buying power to go into Mexico as of late 2.5% since April. A decrease in the peso value again increases it. So we're talking about Europe or Americans investing into Canada and seeing their buying power weaken while it's strengthening south of their border. What you're starting to see though are these huge marquee markets or ones that you think about where you've seen the most development like Tulum starting to kind of have a little bit of caution of oversupply for generic spots, which I think wasn't on this, it was on another webinar that you and I had done. Even the people that are local on the ground within those markets are saying, you know, the one bedroom condos down there, well, not too expensive to buy into, you're not getting your returns on them. And all the other areas, you know, you're still seeing good stuff in the Riviera Playa DEL Carmen, where one or two bedroom places, 280 grand, you save 2.5% give or take on the currency strengthening against the peso. But there's still some issues to be had from there. You pull it back a little bit further, you're looking at potential FX opportunities where it's a good one for being able to take advantage of strong rates at this time. Not that you should quickly make a real estate investment decision depending on the 2 cents that the euro has gained. But Portugal, Spain and Italy are still considered pretty good real estate momentum. Italy being at the bottom of that one, as well as a pretty strong FX opportunity from a purchasing power standpoint. And then ultimately you're seeing the same thing on Mexico now and the forward trajectory of most of these places. There's still a lot of questions involved and how the euro will continue to perform, how the peso will perform given everything that's going on economically in the world these days.

[A]

Yeah, it's interesting because it's like it's really easy to end up in an excess supply situation when demand drops off so quickly. Like it's, you know, it's hard to overbuild to a point of excess supply. But like, you see this in Canada as well, even in a lot of US Markets where you see interstate migration. You know, Texas is probably the only place that's been capable of overbuilding to the point of excess supply. Everywhere else it's purely a function of how many people are leaving, going from California to Texas or now going back to California. And that impacts the supply and demand dynamics. Like you know, there's always the argument that we need more supply, etc. But supply is so slow for real estate. Even in jurisdictions like Mexico where you can build as fast as you want. Really like it's not, not a, not a bureaucratic red tape approvals environment like, like the much of the US and Canada and most of the Anglosphere. Yet, you know, it still takes you a year, two years to build a project. You know, it's really, it's an interesting thing to, to think about from my perspective when, when you, because Canada dropped our immigration rate as an example, population growth is falling now for the first time in ever I think in Canadian history.

[B]

We didn't grow last year and I think we're looking at not growing.

[A]

Negative. Yeah, again negative.

[B]

It's crazy.

[A]

Yeah. So. And you can. And rents are down, prices are down, absorption is down. So this, when you think about this in terms of global dynamics, it's like, well, if U.S. investors were the majority of people buying and renting in a tulum of the world or in many of these Mexican destinations, if the US sees economic attraction or sees borrowing power shrink or buying power shrink because the USD is weaker against those domestic currencies, a lot of those places can get impacted very quickly.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Paying attention to this stuff and there's

[B]

also kind of consumer sentiment on these whole things. And unfortunately I'm sure I could pull it up as we're talking, but everybody these days are starting to feel the pinch one way or another. Uncertainty whether it be about work. And this is why I think it's so relevant to always continue to touch base on very, very high level of what's going on in economic factors everywhere. Because if the consumer sentiment is down, an investment property in a new market with additional headaches becomes less and less appealing. And people also just start worrying about the simple things like how you're going to fill up your gas tank and stuff along those lines and not trying to put together a full cash payment or a down payment on another market. And that's also as we've continued to touch base on it, the interest rate. So if you're having to do a home equity loan or some form of local financing for your international purchase, the interest rates are always going to be such a key component of it. And one of the things that would be a good thing to kind of do a deep dive into it as well. Depending on who knows. I don't know off the top of my head. What it shows will be your opportunity cost and so there's the risk factor to it. But if you do a backdated study outside of the utility of owning a second property in whatever a warmer climate or a nice place somewhere south or in Europe, what would that investment have turned into elsewhere in terms of investing whether it be the equity market or what have you. And I know you touched on it before where real estate's an interesting one because it's hyper levered like one of the most leveraged product that you'll buy. I know international purchases that becomes way more complicated in terms of what you can actually lend and how you get it. These things will all change the fundamental demand of local as well as international properties as you go. And it's tough to kind of time it all out.

[A]

Yeah, I mean I think like you can, you can just directionally assume like certain things that will, will probably happen based on just math. Like I would say again if, if your US is they're obviously not the marginal marginal buyer in most foreign property markets or they may be the marginal buyer for, for luxury properties or investment grade properties in Mexico or whatever. Like maybe more than the, you know, the domestic Mexican family that is maybe buying a place in, in Tulum. So those markets like their exposure is super high. Okay. So let's assume that the prices are going to go down. I mean you can see this like you know, markets, the way market cycles work with real estate. And it's pretty fascinating like you, you're. And it's fascinating because it's predictable and like there's an easy way to, to, to play the cycle. So demand gets, demand shrinks. Prices probably fall because your USD is lower than your Mexican currency. Right. You eventually prices sort of bottom and usually this is coupled by some sort of economic recovery. So maybe USD goes up and that actually starts pushing more buyers back into that. When you know, when that, when you get that flip happening. Usually it's interest rates but with you know, with foreign investment it's actually interest rates probably matter less because a lot of people aren't buying foreign properties with debt.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

At least not domestic debt or mortgages. And then you also have. So, so let's say your forex trade is more, more important to the cycle than, than an interest rate if you like if you flip that and when you start the recovery process, you get stronger buying power from your currency and you get a lower price. That's the time when you want to buy early. And sometimes that looks like, oh, prices are up 5%. And people get afraid to buy in a rising price environment because when they feel like they're overpaying. Yeah, yeah. Or like, yeah, like, oh, you know, will it come back down or whatever. So, so there's that and then the alternative version is sort of like in a domestic market is, you know, prices fall because interest rates are high and then they come down and usually interest rates need to come down to try and stimulate the economy from the bottom there. Because a lot of, you know, most of your Anglosphere, their economies are purely residential investment. Right. Like, or a lot of it, you know, as a consumer, 10, 10%, 20%, whatever, you know, even in the U.S. is 5% trying to find that. When does that, when does that happen? Right? When's that, like, when is that flat? And I think we're just, we're just starting, probably just starting to see the down trend start. So you've got, I think, a couple of years of probably pretty good buying opportunities for people who are willing to figure out a way to make it happen against the uncertainty. Low uncertainty, low buying power, you know, oh, am I okay to pay a bit like a 10% premium on the currency side or whatever, 5% premium on the currency side and risk that, you know, maybe there, there was a better spread for me to capture in the future? Yeah, I don't know. It's like, it's, it's, it, that extra variable makes it hard, man.

[B]

It's the term too. Right? It's an illiquid asset.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

So it's the term that you'd be holding this for. And we can't even forecast where currency is going to be accurately within a quarter or a half year, let alone where markets are going to be. Real estate markets will be with that in consideration in a 5 to 10 year time. I was talking about it below and I figured I might as well back up my random mention about the consumer Sentiment Index. And it's actually at a fresh all time low for the United States right now. And if you want to think about this in the loosest form or the easiest form, that's essentially the mood ring of the economy as a whole. How people are feeling, where they think it's going to go, what are they concerned about? And generally what you'll see is that everybody thinks to a point where it's basically at an all time low that these things aren't. Nothing's going to go well. It's tough to make that large scale investment which your point in terms of if you have the capital on hand and I guess that brings you back to that K shaped economy which we've spoken about and it's all over the news. It's actually probably a decent time to start looking at these things because as people want to become more liquid and alternatively other people step out of the market so the demand lowers and supply continues to increase, you might be able to find some quote unquote good deals. But it's next to quite difficult to figure that one out. If we knew if you and I could figure that one out with all certainty, what would be the best thing? We'd have a lot more cars probably driving around private jets and flying around in private jets. Right.

[A]

It's like that guy, remember hot tub time Machine, when Lou goes back and just starts Google like Lugal, that's what you'd be strong. Yeah.

[B]

It happens in Back to the Future as well. He brings the sports book back when he goes to the future and he does all the sports betting for it. Yeah. I mean I'll say it to clients all the time when we talk about stuff like this from a currency. It's like if I knew exactly where these things were going to go, one, there probably wouldn't be as much reward for it if everybody knew. Because part of your rewards on any investment is the risk tolerance that you're willing to take on it. But I always just say if I knew exactly where the markets were going to go, I wouldn't be talking to you, I'd be sitting on a beach. And ultimately I think that's true for everything when it comes to an investment standpoint. So it's all about, yeah, 100%.

[A]

I mean, yeah, I think a lot of us like who are sort of maybe your middle class, upper middle class folks that are trying to get to that category of wealth of people who, you know, can, can be real estate without borders people. Yeah, I mean like, I think it's because there's a lot of cheap markets that are accessible. That's why we talk about them so much. Right. Because there's so many Americans interested in like your $25,000 houses in Japan or Italy. Right. But yeah, I think we are forced to just be like the normal wealth generation cycle, which is buy smart assets, be responsible, pay down debt, make a return and hope that you can outgrow the money outgrow the market. Right. Because your return on capital. I don't know if. Do you know who Thomas Piketty is? The book capital in the 21st century. Yeah, it's really cool. It's a very long, wordy book. I guess it's been translated from French, so maybe that's why. But I mean, basically the summary is like, if your capital return on capital outpaces your return on labor, which it does. Right. Because capital growth, like if you put your money in the stock market versus going to work to earn a wage, your wage growth is 4%. Your stock market growth is what, historically 10% over the last several decades. So as long as capital outgrows labor, then disparity is going to continue to increase. Rich will get richer, the poor will get poorer, relatively. Right. So you literally don't have a choice. Like, you cannot achieve meaningful wealth in life without getting off of that labor relationship with money and getting onto the capital relationship with money. And so the faster that you can, the more efficiently you can convert your time into assets, the more efficiently you will progress towards the wealth, the capital class of people versus the labor class

[B]

of people, and that's that. I can't remember who says it, Charlie from Berkshire or whatever, but the first 100 grand. Artists.

[A]

Yeah, yeah.

[B]

And then it kind of continues to supersede. You know, here's something outside of just. We'll call it the usage of these. These international real estate properties, you know, if you got to take a flight to them and stuff along those lines. Do you want to guess what the average international flight trip has increased since February?

[A]

It's increased.

[B]

Yeah. The price of the cost.

[A]

Yeah. Well, enough to kill Spirit Airlines.

[B]

Yeah, fair enough. You're looking anywhere from about a 42% increase. So if you're thinking. You're thinking about it. And those are the other things where, I guess, you know, me being somebody who would look at these things of usage is what's my cost to get to it each time? And I just came to mind because of the Japan comment. And my God, the flights to get over there these days are. I booked one recently. It's not cheap. So all of a sudden, you see an extra 42% on, like, a $2,000 ticket every time you want to go there. I think that would change around my personal, you know, $25,000 house is great, but to go see it four times, cost you 10.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Might change you up a bit.

[A]

100%. Yeah. Yeah. On that note, actually, like, what do you. What's your I know we talked a little bit about this kind of early in like the oil spike, but like, you know, historically, oil price spike of like a, you know, like a 50% or 100% increase in oil prices leads to demand destruction in a recession. So I would say like, you know, Spirit Airlines is sort of like the first, you know, the first gravestone for this. There's probably going to be more, but we're at what, 95 bucks a barrel now. We're at 120. 120 was still like 120 was bad, but it still wasn't like 90s recession bad. It wasn't Iran Contra deal bad. It wasn't like most of the historic recessions. The question becomes, does it end up being more of a setup like your 70s, like vocal era where the oil price spike is meaningful enough to suck, but it's not meaningful enough to crush demand and consumers can actually absorb it and they stop, you know, buying luxury things like going to, flying to their house in Japan, but they start buying or, you know, they're not buying less groceries or whatever and the economy actually keeps trucking along and this ends up being a sticky inflation risk rather than a, than a immediate sort of recession risk. Like the part that sucks about me asking this question is either outcome is horrible. Like you either get, you're either in stagflation or you're in a recession. Both are garbage. Right. But you mentioned earlier about the Fed kind of having somebody at the Fed who's maybe more willing to cut rates. What's your take on how this plays out for global macro? Yeah, global macro. I mean, where we are right now, I'm not asking you to guess what oil prices are, but if we stay at 90, 95, I think between the way I modeled it was between 95 and 120, your consumer can probably absorb a lot of that. If you go to, yeah, if you

[B]

go back to kind of fun media, if you watch the show Landman, he's like, what? Between 60 and 90 a barrel, everybody's happy. You start getting up in the hundreds and then everybody starts to feel it at the pump and feel the other thing that people are talking about more and more lately is this disruption to the oil market continues to push out and doesn't look like it has a good closeout period anytime soon. Which is why you're seeing more concerns on inflation and consumer sentiment going down is every country has their stockpile and as you drain it out a little bit to help try and keep the pricing down and OPEC changes up how much they push out. There is going to be an elongated price increase while these stores need to go up. And these stores are also held for a multitude of reasons. One is to help with crises like this. Two is potential wartime conflicts. You want to be able to make sure your oil is sufficient if you're not an oil producing country country. But I think this is going to. You'll see ripple effects on this for 6 to 12 months. No problem with where we are today. And that'll continue to increase things. The other one that I was reading about which is interesting, which oil is involved in it. But the other thing that comes out of this passageway is a huge amount of fertilizer. And so you'll see a huge increase in food costs down the line. And these effects will be felt for a long period of time. To your point they might not be absolutely devastating to everything but all of a sudden if everything costs a couple percent higher. We dealt with the heavy inflation shortly after Covid through that period. And you notice it. I notice it every time still to this day where I still get mad that I can't leave a grocery store without spending a hundred bucks and that's not even bringing on everything else. So I think this will continue to ripple out and continue to have some serious impacts for the next at least 12 months. And who knows how long it'll go for.

[A]

Who do you think's most well positioned to benefit from? I mean like Canada stands out but I probably just one of the economies I know the most about. But you know like we. We've got the. A lot of the fertilizer in the prairies right With Saskatchewan potash etc and then fuel as well like our gas actually ends up making sense. Not, not that it's ever going to be converted to actual gasoline but like our, our oil prices end up making it makes it.

[B]

Makes it the type of the sand oil. Yeah, exactly. In theory we should be able to do take advantage of this pretty heavily. And I know there's conversations about how to make that work because you're absolutely right. We have the ability to cover off a lot of those things. Do we have the same amount of market and that's us trying to expand our trade partners to be able to benefit from it further. Other countries with large oils, a lot of them have their own conflicts within it. I'm pretty sure Norway's starting to reap some good profits from it. And they've got all of their resources through

[A]

their

[B]

basically public fund hones the resources so they're seeing stronger profits through there as they export their oil at a higher price to their neighbors. Ultimately in the short term gain. You're seeing Russia getting some serious economic benefits, which isn't really for the benefit of anybody in my personal opinion, given the war that's going on. And you're seeing some serious increases in revenues, I'd imagine, from Venezuela and those other. Other countries down there. From a fertilizer standpoint, I don't really know the other regions. That's a gap in my knowledge. But Canada should be in a good spot to. I don't want to say thrive, but do well through this because we do have some of the largest resources of those things.

[A]

Yeah. And a huge increase in foreign. Foreign direct investment in Canada's economy. I mean, I think it was like one or two MA deals that kind of like skewed the data, but still like, you know, I mean, and you start to see this flight to quality happening that we've been describing would happen. It's already kind of becoming evident in certain markets. I think the US especially if the USD starts trading at a discount to other currencies around the world, US stands to benefit a ton. I would imagine this show will end up talking a lot more over the next little bit. Should things stay the way they are about how to buy real estate in the U.S. as somebody outside of the U.S. than how to buy real estate out of the U.S. if you. If currency, the. The Forex numbers stay where they are. Right. So I guess we'll wrap it up there. I know this is a shorter app, but got a couple of interviews dropping as well. So we'll keep the timeline full for you guys. Make sure you hit the subscribe button. Let us know. Appreciate the feedback. I know a couple of people have mentioned, you know, we having some audio issues and stuff.

[B]

We're.

[A]

We're on it. We're working on it. Yeah, it's pretty good. I. I'll let you know once I get a chance to listen to it, but it sounds good to me live, but it never is the same. But also, I'm going to send you a nice one anyway. But yeah, this makes me feel a

[B]

little bit nerdy, to be honest with you.

[A]

Yeah, you look like the, remember that like vintage American Express commercial. Like American Express. How to go with it. Yeah, yeah, exactly. So. But anyway, yeah, thanks a lot, man, and have yourself a wonderful weekend.

[B]

Yeah, you as well. We'll talk soon.