Transcript
A (0:00)
Today we're decoding a head spinning play. Is Donald Trump secretly rooting for a market meltdown? So 7 million, 7 trillion in US debt due in six months and the refinancing at 4 plus rates is a non starter for team Donnie Trump and their weapon of choice tariffs. Those juicy taxes slapped on imports that could jack up prices on everything from steel to soybeans. These aren't just grenades, they're market spookers designed to stall growth, freak out stock trades and send them sprinting to the bonds. Yields drop, refinancing costs shrink and the feds might even slash rates. So short term chaos, long term win. What happens to the real estate game when tariffs shake the board? So we're going to connect these dots for you on this episode. Real Estate Without Borders. We're going to cover like live. This is my favorite episode I think that we've done so far, to be honest.
B (0:57)
Yeah, news, news episodes are always fun for sure.
A (1:01)
Honestly like we, this is just, we're just going back and forth with different X news posts because that's, that's my new app of choice, man. If you're not on X and you're listening to this, you're just. I'm smarter than you and just a fact and I'm sorry to say it.
B (1:14)
But if you not even mad at, not even sad or upset about it. Embarrassed.
A (1:19)
I'm just smarter. It's only learning on X. I only learn things.
B (1:23)
And it's so easy to not learn but it is, it is definitely like the learning social media. Like I, I don't know, I feel like when I'm scrolling like, but there is like there's definitely, there's a lot of higher quality information news etc. Right?
A (1:35)
It's a lot better. Yeah.
B (1:37)
Scrolling through TikTok or whatever. Yeah.
A (1:39)
Oh for sure. Yeah. If you're going to doom scroll at your, your X is the play. But. All right, give us that. Forgot the first one pulled up. I got it here. If, if you don't got it.
B (1:47)
Yeah, no, I got it. So it's a tweet. It says it's from Amit on X. It says why Donald Trump wants the market to crash in the short term. The chart below sums up the reason behind what the current administration is doing and why is having adverse effects on the market. Chris Patel did a great job explaining this more in depth. We have $7 trillion in debt we need to pay in the next six months. If we don't pay it, we'll have to refinance the Trump admin. Does not want to refinance at a 4% rate. The 10 year at one point was 4.8. So that's the rate at which they're going to be the interest rate that they have to pay on the debt when they go to refinance it. How do you get the 10 year? Yeah, how do you get the 10 year to come down? If markets show weakness, then they would reduce. So you have Doge basically being perceived as actually working Donald Trump making the markets feel weak from tariffs. This creates massive uncertainties and that can slow down growth in the short term, which would get the bond market to start buying bonds asap. Because people start rotating into bonds when the markets are uncertain, right? Because if they're afraid to touch stocks, they'll go start buying bonds. And once you increase the demand for bonds, you've got more and more people bidding up the price, the yield relative goes down, right? So conventional wisdom says tariffs are inflationary and the 10 year should be spiking on more tariffs, but it's actually going down because it's bringing so much uncertainty to the equity markets that people are selling stocks and buying bonds, which is apparently allegedly. And again, I'm not one to. I don't know whether or not I subscribe to the 4D chess thesis, but apparent this is exactly what the Trump administration wanted. They just haven't mentioned that. I feel like a guy likes to take credit. Like if he comes up with a good idea, like if, if this, if this was actually his idea, he'd be like, yo, this was my idea, right?
