Real Estate Without Borders: Episode Summary
Episode: The 10 Cities with the Most Working-Age People
Release Date: June 17, 2025
1. Introduction
In this engaging episode of "Real Estate Without Borders," hosts Dan and Dave delve into the significance of working-age populations in global cities and their implications for real estate investors. Highlighting the top 10 cities with the largest working-age populations, the duo explores demographic trends, economic indicators, and urbanization patterns that influence real estate markets worldwide.
2. Understanding Working-Age Population
Dan begins by defining the working-age population as individuals aged 25 to 64, encompassing those who have completed post-secondary education and are typically expected to retire by 64. He emphasizes, "The cities that have the most of these people are typically economically active cities" (00:32).
3. Top 10 Cities by Working-Age Population
The episode lists the top cities with substantial working-age populations, providing a comprehensive overview of each market's dynamics:
- Shanghai, China – 18.4 million
- Beijing, China – 16.5 million
- Delhi Gurugram, India – 15.7 million
- New York Metro, USA – 15.5 million
- Sao Paulo, Brazil – 15.6 million
- Mexico City, Mexico – 15.5 million
- Manila, Philippines – 14.8 million
- Buenos Aires, Argentina – 14.3 million
- Mumbai, India – 13.9 million
- Tokyo, Japan – 13.7 million
4. In-Depth Analysis of Key Cities
Shanghai, China Shanghai tops the list with an impressive working-age population of 18.4 million. Dave notes, "Shanghai is the biggest city in the world in terms of working-age population" (06:49). The city boasts the world's busiest container port and has historically seen significant real estate price growth, with Dan mentioning a "60% year-over-year increase back in 2015" (08:03). However, Shanghai faces demographic challenges due to China's declining fertility rate and the aftermath of the one-child policy, leading to a shrinking workforce and potential real estate market saturation.
Delhi Gurugram, India Delhi Gurugram emerges as India's financial hub with a working-age population of 15.7 million. Dan highlights India's "demographic dividend," where a young population fuels economic growth. Despite a declining fertility rate, India continues to benefit from a substantial influx of young workers, positioning Delhi Gurugram as a fertile ground for real estate investments.
New York Metro, USA With 15.5 million working-age residents, the New York Metro area remains resilient. Dave points out a "reversal of trends seen during COVID," where the return to office work is bolstering demand for real estate in major trade hubs like New York (28:00). This resurgence contrasts with declines in other regions such as Florida and Texas, which had previously seen increased migration during the pandemic.
Sao Paulo, Brazil & Mexico City, Mexico Both Sao Paulo and Mexico City feature prominently with over 15 million working-age individuals each. Dan emphasizes the potential for sustainable economic growth in Mexico City due to its young population, making it an attractive market for investors. Similarly, Sao Paulo's burgeoning population underscores South America's rising importance in the global real estate landscape.
Tokyo, Japan Despite Tokyo's massive working-age population of 13.7 million, Japan's overall aging demographic poses long-term challenges. The country grapples with a low fertility rate and a shrinking workforce, factors that could dampen real estate demand in the future.
5. Demographic Trends and Real Estate Implications
China's Demographic Decline Dave and Dan discuss China's demographic issues, citing a significant drop in fertility rates to 0.6 births per woman (12:28). The one-child policy has resulted in an excess of males and a decreasing working-age population, raising concerns about the sustainability of Shanghai and Beijing's real estate markets.
India's Demographic Dividend Conversely, India is experiencing a "demographic dividend" with a growing young population that is expected to sustain economic expansion until around 2060 (16:34). This favorable demographic trend supports continued real estate demand in cities like Delhi Gurugram and Mumbai.
Mexico and Brazil's Urbanization Mexico and Brazil are highlighted for their ongoing urbanization and relatively higher fertility rates compared to developed nations. This trend ensures a steady growth in their working-age populations, making cities like Mexico City and Sao Paulo attractive for long-term real estate investments.
Canada and the USA: Reliance on Immigration Both Canada and the USA rely heavily on immigration to sustain their working-age populations. With low birth rates, these countries' population growth curves are primarily driven by incoming migrants, ensuring continued demand in their real estate markets. Dan remarks, "The US is a compelling place for people to migrate... it's the promise of everybody," (25:02) underscoring the sustained attractiveness of these markets.
6. Role of Global Capital and Investment Strategies
Dan references a CBRE Research report, the Global Tech Talent Guidebook, which analyzes unemployment rates and working-age populations to guide real estate investments. He explains, "Chinese capital plays a huge role in global real estate markets, especially urban global real estate markets" (10:01), highlighting how investment flows from countries like China influence markets worldwide, particularly in cities like Vancouver and Toronto.
7. Future Outlook and Investment Considerations
The hosts emphasize the importance of understanding demographic trends for real estate investors. Cities with growing or stable working-age populations, such as those in India and Mexico, present lucrative opportunities. In contrast, markets facing demographic decline, like China, may offer limited growth prospects. Additionally, the reliance on immigration in countries like Canada and the USA suggests that policies facilitating migration will continue to underpin their real estate markets.
8. Conclusion
Dan and Dave conclude that staying informed about global demographic shifts is crucial for successful real estate investment. By analyzing working-age populations and understanding the underlying economic and social factors, investors can make informed decisions to expand their portfolios internationally. Dave encapsulates the episode's essence: "We're learning along with you and diving into this and taking... tangible takeaways on how you can use this information and implement it" (01:35).
Key Takeaways:
- Working-age populations are pivotal indicators of real estate demand and economic vitality in cities.
- Shanghai and Beijing face demographic challenges that may impact their real estate markets long-term.
- Delhi Gurugram and Mumbai in India benefit from a youthful population, presenting strong investment opportunities.
- Mexico City and Sao Paulo are emerging as significant markets due to ongoing urbanization and population growth.
- New York Metro is witnessing a resurgence in real estate demand as work-from-home trends wane.
- Canada and the USA maintain robust real estate markets through sustained immigration despite low birth rates.
- Understanding global demographic trends is essential for strategic real estate investment.
Notable Quotes:
- Dan: "The cities that have the most of these people are typically economically active cities." (02:32)
- Dave: "This is a cool episode. I'm excited to dive into this." (02:03)
- Dan: "Chinese capital plays a huge role in global real estate markets, especially urban global real estate markets." (10:01)
- Dave: "We're learning along with you and diving into this and taking... tangible takeaways on how you can use this information and implement it." (01:35)
For full insights and detailed discussions, listeners are encouraged to tune into the full episode of "Real Estate Without Borders."