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- [00:01]
A
Welcome back to Real Estate Without Borders. It's just me and Dave today. I feel like it's been a while. We've had a ton of guests. We got a couple more coming up as well, which is cool. I love learning about how things work in other places in the world, but just Dave and I today, we're going to be talking about the cities on Earth with the largest working age populations. It's a list that. That kind of surprised me. I mean, the top you would expect, like, it's obviously very relative to what countries on Earth have lots of people. But, yeah, you know, we've. We've seen this rapid urbanization of people around the world, and so I think it's important and relevant for people who want to trade and invest in real estate globally to understand what are the top 20 cities in the world by working age population.
- [00:41]
B
Yeah, we. This is an impromptu. This is. This is a. An impromptu. Not impromptu. We're prepared always.
- [00:46]
A
But preparedness is such a relative term.
- [00:49]
B
That's. That's right. If we got. We got Dan's, you know, watching Ms. Rachel with the kids. I got cats running all over my kitchen, and we're just here to have a good time. I feel like we've. We. I actually.
- [00:58]
A
Rain or shine, baby.
- [00:59]
B
Dude, I actually really missed this. I was really looking forward to this today. I think we chatted this morning and it was like. I think we both had one of those mornings where we, me and Dan played golf yesterday and we crushed it. Didn't win, but we crushed it. We did not.
- [01:14]
A
We won in other ways.
- [01:16]
B
That's right. We had a great. We had a great time, but it affected our mornings this morning. And then this morning we both woke up a little bit delayed, and now we're just, like, ready to go. This is our first. Well, not really, actually, but up since.
- [01:29]
A
I like how we say delayed and, like, people are going to assume that we mean, like, hungover, but we actually don't drink and didn't drink at all yesterday on the course.
- [01:35]
B
Yeah, we. When I say had delayed. I Woke up at 5:45 instead of 5.
- [01:39]
A
Yeah, there you go.
- [01:41]
B
But, yeah, no, honestly, this. This is a cool episode. I'm excited to dive into this. I. Truthfully, I'm going to be learning a lot myself here. And that's how we always do these episodes. So that's why these. That's why this podcast is so cool, because we're. We're learning along with you and diving into this and taking. Helping you get, like, tangible takeaways. On, on how you can use this information and implement it. And we're diving into it like live like real time, which I don't think is very common in a lot of podcasts.
- [02:07]
A
No, yeah, it's definitely less scripted like you and I are kind of just trying to learn here. So let's talk a little bit about why it's even relevant that like what cities have the largest working age population. So let me quickly go through the list. So wait, wait, wait, wait.
- [02:25]
B
What's, what is. Let's, let's make it as simple as possible. What's working age population? Like people that are able to work.
- [02:32]
A
Yeah, yeah. So let's define working age population. This is people age 25, so done post secondary school to 64, which would be when they are typically historically expected to retire. And so the cities that have the most of these people are typically economically active cities. Right, right. And so you know, not to say that it has anything to do with, with real estate investing in a lot of these markets because a lot of markets that we've talked about have very few people in working age. Like you know, the Italy of the world, Japan, where they're seeing demographic collapses. That's, that's what allows them to have exceptionally cheap real estate. Most of the cities on this list are going to have real estate that is not so cheap. And, but, but there's, there are some interesting ones here because like Mexico City as an example is one that stands out to me. Mexico is such a place to watch. Right. Where you've got this. It's one of the biggest cities on earth. The country itself has a lot of young people, has a big working age population. I mean to me that is an indicator that you could see sustainable economic growth in a market like Mexico as.
- [03:40]
B
An example for sure. I actually so a fun fact about Mexico City. I've honestly never been into Mexico City. I've been around it, which is a shame. I will, I will make sure I go this year. I'll do a podcast from Mexico City. But fun fact from. And I'd love for someone to fact check me on this, but I've heard that the temperature in Mexico City is so perfect year round that most like homes don't have air conditioning or heating because it's just like perfect temperature all year round. Elevate. Yeah, yeah. It's not like, like Mexico City is not like the co. Like Quintana Roo, state of Quintana roo, Cancu, Tulum, P.L. carmen where it's by the coastline, super muggy it's actually. I think it's in the mountains, if I'm not mistaken, or at least around mountains. And because of that, apparently, apparently the temperature is like, perfect year round. Fun fact.
- [04:31]
A
Yeah, it's interesting. Cause, like, we were talking about this on. At the meetup the other day, the real estate meetup. So I host meetups in Canada. Like we have 27 meetups across the country in different cities across Canada. And this is something we're actually hoping to do with Real Estate Without Borders eventually, as the community grows, is host. Host meetups like that around the world. But, you know, there was a guy who was there from Arizona in the Toronto Real Estate Meetup, and we were talking about. He used to live in California. And he was just saying, like, in Arizona. And this is another thing that you see in places like Dubai or Canada. On the inverse, he's like, Arizona and like Texas. In many, many cases Florida. It's like almost like the opposite of Canada. Where in Canada, like, we have like, those six months where you don't do anything because the weather's so crap. To the downside, because it's cold and there, you know, you have so many months of the year where it's too hot to do anything and people just kind of like stay in their house or like, lounge by the pool or whatever. I was like, those are better. Definitely better. Like not doing anything. Things to do. Right. Like, if I'm not doing something, I'd rather be chilling where it's too hot than chilling in my house because it's freezing outside and just watch, you know, like, doing nothing, basically.
- [05:42]
B
Of course.
- [05:43]
A
But it does make. There's actually like. Historically there's been this thing where it's almost more productive. Where I play place has a more balanced climate because, you know, when it. When it gets cold out, you can work right. Without getting too sweaty or whatever. So you can actually produce more. But that was kind of interesting, for sure. But anyway, to. To kind of finish that off, because I didn't finish my thought. California is like, if you look at this map of, like, areas on earth with, like, livable climate. California has, like, the most days of, like, comfortable weather on Earth. I think it is. Yeah. So I don't know.
- [06:17]
B
I just saw that on Dana White was just talking about that. That the weather there is just like, literally perfect all the time.
- [06:24]
A
That, that. That song with. Is it Kendrick and Dr. Dre? Women. Women weed in weather.
- [06:30]
B
No. Maybe I've heard it, but now I'm gonna have to listen to it. Obviously, after My, my terrible workout this morning, but that's okay. Okay, so what's, what's number, what's number one? We got number one on the list. Shanghai. So working age population is 18.4 million.
- [06:49]
A
Yeah.
- [06:49]
B
That's crazy. Yeah, man, we gotta book it. We gotta book a flight to Shanghai. Dude, we talk about Shanghai all the time and it's a shame that we've never been.
- [06:58]
A
Well, I think it's like the busy, busy biggest city in the world. Most populous urban area in. Or sorry, most populous urban area in China. Biggest city in the world, I think, is Tokyo. The port of Shanghai is the world's busiest container port.
- [07:13]
B
Right?
- [07:14]
A
Yeah. I mean it's just like, it's, it's, it's the spot, man. Like it's got, I think it's the highest GDP in the world for a city. It's just a powerhouse. Right.
- [07:23]
B
I know we're gonna probably get into this, but I'm just thinking like out loud, if these people have like, say, for example, we're talking about Shanghai. Shanghai has 18.4 million people that are working. Right. I feel like, because there's so many people that are working and earning income that would just have a way more demand, a way higher demand to buy real estate, which would likely increase the real estate in those, those areas. But also like on both sides, on rental price and on, on, on sale price, I'm assuming, right? That'd be a fair assumption.
- [08:00]
A
Yeah. 100.
- [08:02]
B
Interesting.
- [08:04]
A
Yeah. I think the, the house prices in, in like places like Shanghai. Where else did we see? I think it was like Shanghai, Tenzin, etc, like they saw like increases of like 60 year over year back in like 2015, 2016.
- [08:25]
B
Right.
- [08:26]
A
So they're like, you, you do see that demand. But then China is also going through this issue where their demographics, like they've fallen below the replacement rate. So the question is like, is it like, is it already at its peak of, of growth? Right? Like, if you're buying maybe 10, 15 years ago when it was still growing, you can catch that demographic growth. You'll have more demand for your rental properties, more buyers for your properties if you want to own them. The other thing with, with China especially is China has a really high homeownership rate. I think we've done, we did an episode of countries by homeownership rate. Right?
- [08:58]
B
Yeah.
- [08:58]
A
China has a really high home ownership rate. So like, it's not really a country where you see like an opportunity to invest. That's why we don't talk about it as much. It's not that we have any issues with China, because I do think China is like an incredible economic powerhouse. Obviously the second biggest or first depending on the metric economy in the world. But it's not really a place where you can buy something and rent it out to a tenant. Right. That's just not how the real estate market works.
- [09:20]
B
I'm actually in the, in the middle of looking if, like, if Shanghai's. I'm kind of trying to see what Shanghai, if it's declining or if it's increasing the working age population. Because like you just said, if this is on the decline, then in terms of investing, you've almost maybe missed the boat. Right. Like, I don't know what the replacement rate is in Shanghai. I'm gonna look that up as well. But if working age adults are the ones getting married, having kids, divorcing, relocating, whatever, each of those like life, even each of those life changes spark some form of like housing transaction off most often, you know, whether it's a sale or a buy or rent, whatever. But I don't know. Oh, you got it pulled up there.
- [10:01]
A
This is just their, their actual like house price growth chart to present day. You can see again, like 2016. And this is really interesting, like just to think about the way global capital flows work. If you look at Canada and the U.S. there was a huge increase in Chinese investment in Canada, especially Canada, like Vancouver, Toronto, but also in many cities in the US in like 2016, 2017. Because basically a lot of capital in China saw like this huge boom. So if you go Back to like 2014, house prices grew like what, 20, it says like in, in Shanghai, 21%, almost 22%. And then they dropped a little bit. So they had like a little bit of a blow off. So they came down, you know, 5% in 2015. 16. Look at this. Shenzhen, 62.5% price growth year over year. Yeah. Shanghai 30 price growth year over year in 2016 and, and almost into 2017. And so a lot of Chinese capital was like, oh, real estate is crazy. It can, it can do, look at what it can do. Let's go buy it in other places because it's so expensive here. And then they started, you know, you started to see huge Chinese capital flows into other major metropolitan areas around the world.
- [11:15]
B
Right.
- [11:16]
A
And China, like Chinese capital plays a huge, huge role in global real estate markets, especially urban global real estate markets. And they would come to Vancouver as an example because Vancouver's a big, it's a hotbed for Chinese real estate investment. And they would say, oh, house prices in Vancouver only went up 20%. You know, that's fine because in Shenzhen they went up 60%. So they're less rational buyers as well during those periods of time.
- [11:41]
B
Interesting. Yeah, I got, I got here. So the working age share, like in percentage, the peak, which for Shanghai, it's Shanghai. Is that right? Is that we're doing Shanghai was 80% of residents in 2013. That was the peak of working age population. So 80% of the residents in 2013. Latest reading. Yeah. And now it's about 70.86. That latest reading we have here was 2023, which is like a. Almost a 9% change. And the net migrant population, so the peak was 10.48 million. Latest reading. 2024. 9.83. And their fertility rate, so Shanghai's total fertility rate just fell to 0.6 births per woman in 2023, which is like well below the replacement level.
- [12:29]
A
Yeah.
- [12:29]
B
And they got like a, let's see here. Large cohorts born in the 1960s and 70s and now crossing that 60, pushing the city's 60 plus share to 37ish. Interesting.
- [12:43]
A
Yeah. And so you're getting people aging out of the workforce, which is shrinking that working age population. And this is a theme that you're seeing in places all over the world, right? This is. They're just earlier in it. So think about Japan, right. Think about Italy. And is. Is China going to suffer the same fate? I mean really, the only way that they could not suffer the same fate is by increasing their immigration. Unless there's a way that they can increase their birth rate. But what happens is as, as populations become more and more middle class or like wealthier and educated, they. They have less kids.
- [13:15]
B
Right.
- [13:15]
A
India is even going through the same thing. They just fell below the replacement rate India did. Yeah.
- [13:20]
B
Wow.
- [13:22]
A
Maybe let's. We can jump down. Yeah, yeah. So the third city on the list, so we have Shanghai and Beijing. So 18 million working age population in Shanghai, 16.5 million working age population in Beijing. And then you go to Delhi Gurugram in India.
- [13:37]
B
Dude, you nailed that pronunciation.
- [13:39]
A
Yeah. Instead of affirmations in the mirror, that's what I did. I just read city names in the.
- [13:45]
B
Morning before each episode, so saying how awesome we are and how much we.
- [13:49]
A
Unique New York.
- [13:50]
B
Unique New York Delhi Gurugram. Delhi Gurugram. What a name. What a handle.
- [13:55]
A
What is just Delhi, right?
- [13:57]
B
What is the not. I'm going to go full name Delhi Google Gram is my new fave. What's. Why is it green not red? I'm guessing that's some sort of measurement.
- [14:03]
A
No, that's just the country. Like all the other ones, like all the China ones are red on the, on the chart here. Yeah. And then India's green. Just color the flag.
- [14:11]
B
I thought it'd be something cooler. So they're what, 15.7 and you said that they're. I'm going to put this here. Let's go.
- [14:18]
A
Considered a megacity or union territory. And a union territory.
- [14:22]
B
And union territory.
- [14:24]
A
Yeah, but it's the, it's the, you know, it's the financial center of India. Right. And a little bit more attached to like, if you were going to look at financial, like global financial hubs, you look maybe like more to Hong Kong than, than the Shanghai. I mean, Shanghai is obviously big, but if you're trying to compare it to like apples to apples to what the cities we just mentioned in China. Hong Kong has a lot more like British influence. It was part of the British Empire for a period of time. A lot of people speak English there. It's more of like that global hub, whereas. And India is very similar in that way because India was also part of the British Empire. Their own, their own English dialect, like. And so Delhi's really evolving in that way. And you're seeing a lot of this happening with the US Trade wars with, with China. A lot of US Companies now actually discussing potentially moving some of their manufacturing to India rather than China. And so my big thought is if you look at everything that happened in China over the last 10, 15, I mean, not even this would be like 50 years, right, where they pulled billions of people, like a billion people out of, out of poverty or out of the lower class and into the middle class, right? Like this was the largest wealth creation in history ever on earth. And look at what happened, right? Like China built these mega cities. Chinese capital started flowing everywhere. Some of the, you see, you know, Chinese billionaires and international students at all the cool schools in Canada and the US and driving Lambos and all that stuff, right? Is India on deck to go through the same thing? This is one of the big thoughts from my perspective because, you know, we, we're hearing, okay, China is below the replacement rate and further below the replacement rate than. And they have a demographic issue. India less. So they just fell below the replacement rate. They still have a lot of people entering the working age population. And we're hearing about this thing called the demographic dividend in India where basically young people get rewarded by an older economy by entering an older economy and they're contributing and so the economy can continue to grow.
- [16:34]
B
Sorry, I got my cat pulling on my stuff here, which is great. One sec. Good times, man. Yeah, can you grab the cat? I got like, I got three cats, man. I got too many cats.
- [16:46]
A
Sorry.
- [16:46]
B
And I was, I was dead guy. I just want to help everybody and all, including Mexican street kitties, but doesn't always translate to how I want it to go. You know, I. Now I got to mix in some kids here eventually. Anyways, I was deep into learning about India. I knew none of that. That was, that was deep. So the working age shares from India and in Delhi. Okay. Working age is from 15 to 59 years. In 2010, it was 78.9%. 2020 or 2020, 68.5, which is a drop of 10%. Okay, let's see. Old age dependency. Net migrant residents with peak was 10.5 down to 2020 at 8.25. I don't have any new stuff here, but the ultra low fertility and late marriage norms keeping birth rates near record lows. I want to find out the replacement rate. Do you have that right there? Is that what you got pulled up?
- [17:41]
A
No, I have a population pyramid though. And you can see like there's this huge concentration of people in 10 to kind of like 30 range. So that's like your young working age population. And this is again where like India still has growth in its, in its economy. Kind of embedded there. It's. It's tapering off because people are having fewer and fewer kids. Because the thing that was to happen in China is happening here where basically people enter the middle class and have few have fewer kids.
- [18:11]
B
Right. Rural to urban migration.
- [18:14]
A
Huge thing in India right now.
- [18:15]
B
Right.
- [18:16]
A
So that was a big thing that happened in, in China.
- [18:19]
B
Right.
- [18:19]
A
Where people were coming out of the farms, moving into more like same with Africa.
- [18:24]
B
Right?
- [18:25]
A
Yeah, well, yeah, you. Yeah, I mean it's happening all over the world, right. Is people were urbanizing. Right. Something like. I think they were saying, like the estimate is by, I think 2050, like 80% of the world's population will live in urban areas.
- [18:36]
B
Wow, interesting. So it's saying that neighboring states are keeping the, the, the core working age cohorts swelling even to like. But I'm trying to find the actual. Let's see here. Their replacement rate, but they're saying, I.
- [18:52]
A
Think they're at 2.01 versus for women right now.
- [18:55]
B
Okay.
- [18:56]
A
A pretty steady decline. So here you can see China, the US and India.
- [19:01]
B
Right.
- [19:01]
A
And yeah, so there, so 2.2 is replacement rate. Right. Technically. Because based on mortality etc, you have two parents, so they'd have to have two kids. Two point or more than two kids.
- [19:12]
B
Right.
- [19:12]
A
And then the 2.2 offsets the mortality rate because unfortunately people die.
- [19:17]
B
People do die. That's crazy. What was it at the peak there?
- [19:21]
A
I can't see India. Well, it looks like in 19 was that like 60s, 63 they were 5.97. And during that period of time China was 7.51 births per woman. That is crazy.
- [19:35]
B
Statistically I thought, am I wrong by, I thought the Chinese populace, they can't, they don't have a lot of women or something. What's the rule?
- [19:45]
A
Yeah, because, yeah, they don't, yeah, they have a huge like I'll show you their population pyramid in a second. But basically after. So when China had that, that peak there in 1963, then they had a little bit of a drop and then thereafter they put in the thing called the one child policy.
- [19:57]
B
That's right.
- [19:58]
A
And then the one child policy is, this is, this is kind of morbid and sad but basically, you know, people, they would get the, like the sonogram or whatever and they would elect to have only male children. Right. People wanted somebody to carry on the family legacy. And, and so there weren't a lot of like people were just not having female babies. Right. They would only have the male babies.
- [20:20]
B
Know what I know?
- [20:22]
A
Huge skew. I think they have like 100 million excess men. I, I'll pull up the population pyramid, but it is wild to see.
- [20:26]
B
That's kind of like Arizona on a, when you go to, out to Arizona. Arizona is like all when you go out to. I did a golf trip in Arizona and it was just a bunch of golf dudes and I feel like I can relate to that. But anyways, I, I, that's super, super interesting. I, I've actually had four clients in the last probably like six months that were from India have purchased properties here in Toronto now selling and moving back to, to India.
- [20:55]
A
Yeah, I've seen a lot of that.
- [20:56]
B
Too, which is interesting. Like it's actually super, super common right now, which is kind of crazy. But is this the Chinese or.
- [21:04]
A
So when did that, this is China's population pyramid. Yeah. We have excess men in Canada too, which is interesting. There's surplus males in the Canadian population because more and more people who are migrating from some of these countries tend to be male.
- [21:16]
B
Right.
- [21:18]
A
But yeah, so the, the, the one child policy happened around that, that same period of time that I mentioned in, in China. I think it was 1972.
- [21:31]
B
Yeah, 1972 is when they, well, they're at seven kids. I think that's a. I, I can't. I mean that's a crazy thing to do. But seven kids per woman is. That's crazy.
- [21:41]
A
So it was 79 to 2015. So it didn't even like. And it ends up being the biggest shot in the foot. Right. Because now if you look at their population pyramid here, I mean they basically, they literally just hit peak population. Like you can see it here, 2020, they would have been another population without, without any changes is just going to be falling. Right. And there's also speculation that, I mean the population reads at 1.4 billion, but apparently it's closer to 900 million. That's what, I can't remember if they came out and said that or somebody had done some analysis. But I mean look at here. Their population is basically going to fall from 1.4 billion to 630 million by 2100. If you compare that to like an India of the world or maybe we'll use Mexico as well because we'll segue over to Mexico City. But if you look at India like their population isn't expected to peak until 2065. Right. 2060. Ish. At 1.7. At 1.7 billion people. And then even when it starts falling, it's not going to be as steep of a drop.
- [22:41]
B
When does it, when does the decline.
- [22:43]
A
Start here it starts in about 20, 2060 it looks like.
- [22:46]
B
Wow.
- [22:47]
A
In India it's when the population will start declining.
- [22:49]
B
What was the story? I don't make you go back, but what was it for China? When did it start to decline in China?
- [22:54]
A
Like this year, like the last couple of years.
- [22:56]
B
Wow. Interesting. Yeah, yeah. Toss in Mexico City or Mexico.
- [23:00]
A
Yeah, I'll go to Mexico. So see that you can. The curve barely change. Right. So Mexico, same thing. It's going to grow until about 2060. So these are to my, from my perspective, I don't want to be buying into a real estate market where the population might like if I'm an investor or, or a realtor who's trying to trade in these markets. I want a market that's growing where there's more people I can sell to, more people I can rent to, whatever. Right, right. And I can do that in India or in Mexico. I can't do that in China. Right. And unless something changes in their, in their demographics, which could. Right. Like China could run a huge immigration program or have a two child policy where they make People have kids or whatever. I mean, I mean, they're, they're. Well, like they're, they're a relatively authoritarian country and so they can do stuff like that. Right?
- [23:44]
B
Right.
- [23:44]
A
One time they had that huge snowfall. They literally made everybody go shovel all the snow. Right?
- [23:49]
B
Crazy. Canada would never, never happen.
- [23:52]
A
Right?
- [23:52]
B
Wait, toss Canada in that for. For a second. I want. I'm just curious. Well, yeah, this, this is just selfish for my, for our Canadian listeners.
- [24:02]
A
And this is why people like Canadian real estate, right? Straight up. But that, that all relies on immigration, right? Like, we have one of the lower birth rates in the world. Canada's birth rate's like 0.7, I think. I think only like Korea is lower than us and we just hit a record low birth rate in Canada. Like, we've never had fewer verse for women in, in Canada. But our population growth curve looks straight up like that because.
- [24:23]
B
Just a rocket ship.
- [24:25]
A
Because our population is growing significantly from immigration. Right?
- [24:31]
B
Interesting.
- [24:32]
A
Yeah. And that's another thing, right? Like you look at the countries where you are seeing a lot of immigration. You know, we had a guy on here from Australia. They have a very similar immigration policy to Canada in that toss.
- [24:45]
B
Yeah, toss Australia in there just for funsies while we're at it. We could do this all day. Do we should have done a whole episode just on. Let's just search every cool city.
- [24:51]
A
Dave looks at population pyramids.
- [24:54]
B
Oh, wow.
- [24:55]
A
Yeah. It's even more of a rocket ship.
- [24:56]
B
Wow. And maybe I missed. I always thought Australia had these crazy immigration policies. Am I wrong?
- [25:03]
A
They. They dropped theirs. Even the US here, you can see the US basically, the growth kind of starts slowing in 2030. Right.
- [25:09]
B
Where are we right now?
- [25:10]
A
Pretty, pretty steady right now. We're. What is that, like 350 million, 345 million. And it should be. They say it's going to hit, you know, and this again, because the U.S. i don't know if China could do this. Like, I'm not. Not to say that they can't. But the US Is a compelling place for people to migrate. Right. Everybody wants to go there in search of the American dream. It's like, right. You know, it's this thing, right? You know, Arnold Schwarzenegger in his book talks about when he was a kid in Austria, wanted to move to California to, you know, become famous. Like that was a thing. Right. You know, people are always like, what's the strength of the US Dollar? And some people will show like post videos on Twitter of like, you know, the, the military, like cruising around like but to me, what really makes the like the US dollar, the global reserve currency is America's Got Talent being the biggest stage in the world. You know what I mean? It's 90 Day Fiance TV shows built about people want like, you know what I mean? Like that to me, the promise of everybody, the fact that somehow they've created this brand, It's a brand, man, that's like, that is what makes the US dollar and the US market so strong is the fact that everybody in the world wants to move there. Could China do that? Could they make it compelling? Probably right. Like, I mean my daughter talks about China wanting to travel, visit China and stuff like that a lot too.
- [26:27]
B
Yeah, he got supposed to got daddy dudes. Toss up that, toss up the other chart there or the chart there. Original one that we. Who was next on the list because I think we left off at Shang or Shanghai, Delhi. Next we got China. So China. So Guan Zhu and Shenzhen. We've talked about these guys quite a bit. And then 15.6 and 15.5. I'm actually super curious about New York because I know that New York. Well, obviously we're just Talking about the U.S. and making, you know, us a place that people want to immigrate to, which is, which is cool, you know. Oh yeah, bring them up, bring up, bring them up. For the, for an episode on the pod man. It's over, it's overdue. We got Remy on the pod episode. Not bad. I was just drilling. I was just giving everybody the numbers. We, we kind of covered China with. Well, I mean it's number 1, 2, 4 and 5 on this list with the highest working age population. And then the first, other than China and India, we have New York Metro, which makes sense to me, you know, and I think the cool thing about this, what we've talked about other episodes as well is like more than I think New York is, is or at least the, the area around New York, the. The real estate is doing decent because everyone's getting called back into work. Right. Like that whole work from home model is kind of not out the window obviously, but it's becoming less and less of a thing and we're getting called back to work and then obviously that's going to increase the working age population in places like New York, which is really cool.
- [28:01]
A
Yeah, you're actually seeing like a reversal of a lot of the trends that we saw during COVID when, when like, you know, everybody was moving out of California, out of New York, into like Florida, Texas, etc. Now you're seeing the opposite. All of those markets are seeing declines in prices. And the New Yorks of the world and Florida and sorry, New York is, Is succeeding. Right. California is actually seeing some growth.
- [28:25]
B
Yeah.
- [28:26]
A
And, and yeah, Texas is. And a lot of it's. They overbuilt. Right. In Florida, prices are shrinking. And then a lot of you're like, yeah, the, the big trade hubs are, are taking off again. So it's almost like a reorganization of the workforce from, from. In like the opposite of that. That big Covid trend when everybody was going to work from home and just move into the Sunbelt. Right, right.
- [28:49]
B
Yeah. Interesting for sure. And then you had.
- [28:53]
A
Yeah. Next one, I guess is Sao Paulo, Brazil, which is an interesting one from my perspective. I think Sao Paulo and Mexico City, like, to me, I agree South America and Central America are really, really places to watch. Like they are still having births, they are still emerging markets. They are still seeing population growth. They're close geographically to, I mean, becoming super popular markets for the retirement. Like to capture that retirement. Like everybody talks about Italy and a lot of these cheap markets in, in Europe, but the truth is like, it's so hard for somebody who's still has a life in the US Or Canada to, you know, casually commute to Italy as like their vacation spot. Right. It's a long flight. It's a completely different time zone. Not gonna be able to have calls with their business or kids or whatever. Right. So you're seeing a lot of people kind of pushing into Costa Rica's of the world, South America. Brazil's a big one. Mexico, obviously, Dave, don't need to pitch you on that one, but. So Sao Paulo and Mexico City are interesting to me.
- [30:03]
B
Yeah. And they're, they're so at the peak of their. Well, not the peak, but they, they. The replacement rate, what went from like 1.59. It's been hovering around like 1.59, 1.77. One point. Let's see here. 2003 was actually the high 2.11. See here in 2018 went to 1.77. It's expected to continue, but around that trend still significantly higher than. Than other places, which is interesting. And like Brazil's declining fertility rate is a significant demographic trend, like especially in, in urban areas like Sao Paulo, you know. But that brings us back to that same point that we just talked about, which is, you know, factors such as like urbanization, you know, economic pressures and access to family planning, which is people coming from those rural areas and then bringing them back into, into the city Core. I think it's just going to happen. Like you said, the urbanization is going to happen all over the world. I was just ripping. Talking to myself about how the same kind of thing.
- [31:02]
A
I was excited to hear how your monologue went while I stepped away from the computer.
- [31:05]
B
Just panicking. No, I was just talking about the same thing, how Brazil. It looks like it's kind of doing the same thing as, you know, like, we just talked about that urbanization of cities. Right. That same thing is happening in Brazil, but it looks like there's a, like a decline in fertility rates in a lot of Latin America, including Brazil, but still significantly higher than anywhere over here in, like, Canada. U.S. yeah.
- [31:29]
A
Yeah.
- [31:30]
B
Was this. Yeah, pull that up. What is this here?
- [31:32]
A
Yeah, it looks like their population is expected to peak around like 2040, 2045. So soon. Right. And Brazil's population is like 200 mil. So it's about like 2/3 of the. The U.S. so. Yeah, I mean. But not as steep of a decline. Right?
- [31:44]
B
Right.
- [31:45]
A
Dropped to 163 million by 2100.
- [31:48]
B
Right. What's. What's after Brazil? No, we hadn't. No. Mexico was first, I think. No. Are we not number one, baby? Let's see.
- [32:00]
A
No, you had Sao Paulo, Brazil, Mexico City and then. And then another city in India. Then you have Manila in the Philippines. Philippines, Buenos Aires, Argentina. Argentina. Yep. Mumbai, Tokyo, L.A. paris, Seoul, London, Bogota, Colombia. Bogota, Chicago, and Dallas, Fort Worth.
- [32:22]
B
Interesting. Bogota. I didn't think that'd be on there. 6.3 million working age.
- [32:27]
A
Very.
- [32:27]
B
I think it's cool. Like, this is all. This is. This is important stuff to know and really cool because I don't think anyone's talking about this stuff. But like, the cool thing is honestly, like, learning on the fly about these cities and, and if you're an investor or even if you're a Realtor, listening to this and you're looking at providing value to your clients, like, genuinely understanding, like the. Would this be micro or macroeconomics? You tell me.
- [32:52]
A
It's a little bit of both. Right. So it's macro in this. In. In such that, you know, it's. You want to compare things in a global context, but it's micro and such that you're analyzing each little market individually and just like, for. To like, really, really drive home why this is relevant to real estate. Like, this report that we pulled from from visual Capitalists came. The data they had came from this thing called Global Tech Talent Guidebook, which was put out by CBRE Research. CBRE is the biggest Commercial real estate brokerage in the world. Right. So, and they put this out because they want to show people the different markets and like what the unemployment rates are there. Right. Where, where companies who are thinking about moving to urban areas to build technology should be looking. Right. They use this as a tool to attract tech companies who are going to be leasing offices and they want to show them which markets they should be looking in. So they have things like the unemployment rate by market in different cities across the world, which is crazy to see some of these. You know, Warsaw, Poland is the lowest. And then we've got Brussels in Belgium, highest employment.
- [33:55]
B
Interesting. And the lowest is Poland.
- [33:57]
A
Yeah. But you look at like a lot of those countries where we're talking about, you know, they're using immigration to try and grow their population or they're seeing demographic collapses already. Brussels.
- [34:05]
B
Right.
- [34:06]
A
Santiago is a little, little different. But then you have Madrid, Bogota, Helsinki, Barcelona, these are the highest unemployment rates. Mumbai. Then they have global working age population share of overall population over time. So it's basically peaked in 2012. So we're now in an aging world. They see it. So you saw it kind of start ticking up in 2020, I guess, with the COVID baby boom, right?
- [34:33]
B
What's that? Yeah, that's the thing to, to understand like for. Because I think not all, not all listeners to this are going to be experts in micro and macroeconomics. Okay. And the, the reason behind these podcast episodes is to give you some like, high level intake context as to what's happening globally because I, I didn't really factor this into my own career. For a realtor. This is for Realtors. If you're a realtor listening. I didn't factor these things into my career until I moved to Mexico and really understood how the entire world was connected and how certain trends, you know, brought back information to how you can sell real estate in wherever you are. Right. So it's super cool to take a look at like a very high level of what's happening globally and utilize that information to bring that, to bring that value to your clients, to just go above and beyond and just be that much better of a realtor. You don't need to be, you know, an economics major from Harvard University to, to be able to deliver this information to your clients, to actually provide value. Then that's the cool thing about this podcast that I love because honestly, I do learn a lot on these podcasts. But for the listeners here, like, what an opportunity to be to, to, to dive into this because I can guarantee you that you're not going to go through this CBRE report, but we did for you. You know, we've done that for you so that you can analyze the information that cbre, which is like, is it the biggest commercial.
- [35:54]
A
Yeah. Biggest commercial real estate company in the world.
- [35:56]
B
They're smarter than us, you know, And. And I'm not going to go and try to compete with cbr. Cbre.
- [36:01]
A
But what I can do there, actually.
- [36:02]
B
See, well, not smarter than Dan, obviously. Dan is. Dan is cbre. Cbre. But, you know, the cool thing is we're giving you the tools to just be more educated on global context and a global scale, because it is all connected and being able to provide these little pieces of information to your client to tie it all into, like, real estate investments. You're just going to be so much further ahead, in my opinion. So you're welcome is what I'm getting at. Me and Fosh are battling through this episode. I got cats chewing on my wires. Dan's got 16 kids.
- [36:30]
A
Yeah, I just realized that I'm, like, not even using my. My proper mic either, so that's why it's, like, picking up all the background noises. It's going to be a fun one to edit all the crap out of. But anyway, we'll. We'll figure it out.
- [36:41]
B
Sorry, buddy. Hey, you know what? We did it. We're here. It sounds like birds are.
- [36:44]
A
Chirping is bad. Is there. You can hear the birds, too. I. I should have. I. I didn't have my pod mic going, so I apologize to anybody who's having a hard time with this one. We did, too. Okay. Yeah, but we'll make the next one better.
- [36:56]
B
We're here. We're just trying to give you all the information without missing any sort of days for you guys. And today was. We fought through it. Warriors. But.
- [37:06]
A
All right, man. Well, see you next week, everyone.
- [37:09]
B
Thanks for listening, everybody.