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All right, welcome to Real Estate Without Borders where we dive deep into trend shaping property markets not just across North America, but around the world. I'm one of your hosts, Daniel Fosh. I'm joined here by the lovely couch sitting Dave Hutchinson.
B
You look like to my living room.
A
I feel like I'm watching a fitsbo pod. Like first time I've seen you wear a tight T shirt and like double xl, man.
B
What are you talking about guys?
A
Filling out double xl?
B
We I need to know if we're live. Someone's got to have some sort of comment somewhere. But we're going to try something new and I think it's going to be really cool for the audience to jump in and eventually maybe I'm speaking for the both of us here, but I think eventually what would be really cool is if we do this a lot more frequently on lives where we can have interactions from our guests that are watching to ask live questions. Like we just had an episode yesterday that was incredible and I think gonna break the Internet. We had a guest on who was basically showing us how to, how to purchase in different European cities and talking about $1 Italian homes, showing us some crazy houses. And it would have been so cool to have this opportunity for people watching live to jump in and ask questions. We might be live, might not be live.
A
Worst case, nobody listens and we just get a recording anyway. Or one person shout out to the one person.
B
That's right.
A
We'd be doing this anyway if you weren't here. So thanks for.
B
You're either in or you're in the way. Okay, what are we talking about today?
A
Yeah, today we're going to be talking about the international buyers of U.S. real estate. So NAR puts out this like pretty sweet report on an annual basis. Some of it surprised me actually. I'm going to screen share here. You can see this, right. Did you know, Dave, that international buyers poured a staggering 42 billion into US residential real estate last year?
B
42 billion?
A
Yeah, that's what we're going to be talking about today. So this is 54,000 homes purchased by foreign buyers with half of these deals being all cash transactions. So no mortgages.
B
Wow.
A
Yeah. If you think about that. Because like, and this is where it's really interesting, you know, typical US buyers are wrestling with mortgages and international buyers in a lot of cases are showing up all cash. But this has been a big like a super talked about thing. A lot of people are going to be watching this report heading into this year because you know there's speculation that Canadians are going to stop buying, buying U.S. real estate. And that might be a worthwhile point to kind of talk about who is the biggest buyers of US Real estate here.
B
Right? Well, yeah, I guess let's get into that. I'm curious, but I also wonder, I wonder how these elections are going to change all of this. I think US and Canada just had major elections and I think like we always talk about no matter what political view you are or what side you're on, someone's unhappy somewhere with the results of these elections.
A
Yeah, for sure. I think that's the funny part about democracy. Right. It's like half the people don't get what they want. And so this is where like, you know, you and I have been hearing about a lot of people in the US wanting to invest in Canada. I mean again, it's regardless of like what your political affiliations are, you can assume that, you know, or what your political leanings are, assume that half the population disagrees with you and then imagine what they would be doing with their money. Right. And so a lot of US capital looking to move to places like Canada, Mexico, Europe, et cetera and then a lot of Canadian capital who agrees with the outcome of the U.S. election looking to invest in the U.S. right, right. And then you're also hearing about, I think like a lot of the boomers obviously were, you know, typically you're left leaning and very much liberal voters in Canada are talking about selling their places in Florida. Right, right. Because they don't agree or they're, you know, they're feeling like insulted by some of the trade war policy and 51st state stuff. And, and so that, you know, let's go through the list here and then it'll kind of contextualize it. So top foreign buyers of real estate in, in the U.S. canada is 13% of foreign buyers. This is the number of foreign buyers. So you'll see China is number two. But they have 11% of foreign buyers. But by dollar volume they're actually the biggest. So they have 7.5 billion, whereas Canada is 5.9 billion of total dollar volume. Mexico is 11% of foreign buyers. So by the number, but they're buying much cheaper properties, 2.8 billion. So China, same number of buyers, same number of transactions compared to Mexico, yet triple the dollar volume. So they're buying properties that are way more expensive. India, 10% of foreign buyers, 4.1 billion and Colombia, 4% of foreign buyers, 0.7 billion.
B
Colombia, yeah, interesting. I didn't expect to see Mexico number Three there at all.
A
I mean, I think, like, there's a lot of, you know, people talk about, like, foreign investment, and Canada's a really interesting case study in this. Right. Because we talk about, like, foreign investment, but what I think they actually mean is, like, you know, cap any capital. Foreign capital coming into Canada. And a lot of that in Canada comes in through people who are actually permanent residents. Right. So they've immigrated to Canada, and there's immigrant capital versus foreign capital is very different. Right. The US Is a little bit different than that. But by and large, and, you know, people who can qualify best to get residency in the US have money. Right. So a lot of this foreign buyer thing probably actually disappears by people who actually end up being able to get residency in Canada or the U.S. okay.
B
So maybe I missed that. I was trying to understand. So when we're saying foreign buyers, we're talking about not necessarily, like, people that have residency in those countries.
A
No. Foreign buyers. Yeah, foreign buyers are people who don't live in like, or don't have residency or. Or like a visa or. Yeah, they're not PR in the US Or Canada or whatever country you're investing in. Yeah. So Canada, like, has banned foreign investment right now. And we've seen other countries like Spain, Portugal kind of put limitations on fore capital because of some of the affordability issues that have arisen as a result of their golden visa programs.
B
We were talking. We had an episode before about the. How the US we haven't followed up on that, to be honest with you. About. About the. How the. The American golden visa has been performing. I know I saw a little bit about that a while back, but I don't think we've ever followed up on that, to be honest.
A
No. Yeah, I don't. I don't think so.
B
Yeah, Mexico. You know what? As I said out loud, it. It's. It does, but doesn't surprise me, I think. I think a lot of people, when they think Mexico, me included, to be honest, they think, like, relaxed beach towns, Tulum, Cancun. But Mexico City as we are speaking, we speak about it on the podcast all the time. Not a big geography guy, but Mexico City, correct me if I'm wrong, has a bigger population than Canada. I think I'm right on that.
A
Yeah, probably. I think Tokyo has a bigger population than Canada. I'll check it. Let's check it right now.
B
That kind of makes more sense than Mexico City to me.
A
Right, right. Well, I think people underestimate how big. I think Mexico City is like one of the largest cities in, in the world. I think it's the most populous city in North America.
B
Yeah. And it makes sense. Like I, from, from experience from, from selling real estate in Mexico. A lot of the like Mexican buyers, I think in Mexico, it's, it's way more, it's way less common to utilize lending options when purchasing assets like property. They're way more likely to purchase cash. And there's some major cities like Mexico City, Guadalajara, Puebla, Monterey that are like super wealthy, super, super wealthy cities. You know, like Lamborghini is everywhere. It's really, really crazy to see. Just different than what I think a lot of. Maybe it's just me, but I feel like a lot of people think Mexico.
A
They think. Yeah, I think people do think that you're right. Okay, so just to fact check, you population of Mexico City is 9.2 million, which is much smaller than in Canada. But the metropolitan area is actually. So there's a, there's the city, right? And then like you, so you have like, I don't know, like Toronto, right. And then you have the GTA.
B
Right.
A
So that, that metropolitan area is 23 million.
B
Of Mexico?
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No, of the. Of Mexico City. Okay, so I'm guessing it's like half of Canada. 40 million.
B
I'm guessing it's like probably. Well, like, like Mexico City, Puebla, Guadalajara. That's still one of my favorite words, dude.
A
Yeah, you're good at it, dude.
B
I know, I've been practicing, but I really want to pick up on Italy.
A
Yeah, like, yeah, that was good, dude. We just gotta. Pratt, we gotta talk to Tim more.
B
Tim Italy.
A
Yeah, so let's go through this report then within our. So we have. Hold on, I want to pull up the PDF here.
B
Pull it up, dude. Some charts going.
A
Yeah, it's kind of interesting actually. There was one chart that they had right here before. Like you can see that the, the foreign demand for US real estate has actually decreased significantly since 2017, I guess. 20. So 2016, 17. Like there's a huge jump up from 16 to 17 and then basically just steady downtrend. Since then they have two types of people who buy. So this is where you were talking about like the residency thing. So they have non resident, which is type A and then resident type B.
B
Can we verify what that means?
A
Yeah, so I have it in the notes here. But basically type A is non US Citizens with permanent residences outside the US.
B
Say that one more time.
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Type A is non resident foreigners.
B
Non resident foreigners.
A
So that's non US Citizens with permanent residences outside the US So they live somewhere else. And then resident foreigners is non US citizens who are recent immigrants, less than two years at the time of this transaction, or non immigrant visa holders who reside in for more than six months in the US for professional, educational or other reasons. So this wouldn't, this also wouldn't include like your snowbirds. Like snowbirds who are people who like do their winters in Florida or California would be type A, not type B.
B
Got it. Interesting.
A
Yeah. Well, those are the ones that everybody's talking about right now. Right. So. Right, let's go through some key findings here. I got. So we have, I think we mentioned 42 billion total dollar volume of foreign residential purchases.
B
And that's, that's from. That's during April 2023 to March 2024.
A
Yes, for a year.
B
That's a one year period. Wow.
A
Yeah. So we should be able to get the, the 2025 stats on this soon too because I'm interested to see what's going on there.
B
Right.
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Because it goes April to March.
B
Right, Right, right.
A
Yeah. So that's only 2% of the $2.1 trillion of the total dollar volume of existing home sales. So it's a small portion of the total market. Right, right.
B
I wonder, can we pull up where the majority of these purchases are being made?
A
Yeah, they have that in here somewhere.
B
Dude, look at that. What an episode.
A
Yeah.
B
Okay, so what, that, that's 54,000.
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Florida. Florida is the biggest by. By massive margin.
B
Right.
A
Let's see here. So where are they buying? Florida's stealing the show with 20% of all international purchases, followed by Texas and California. So very much warm climate place.
B
But like we've talked about on multiple other episodes, these are probably the three. Well, maybe not California, but Texas for sure. Spot parts of Texas and Florida are struggling right now.
A
Yeah, for sure. Well, and I think that that's before like that was happening, you know, what you saw take place was basically this huge run up. So you saw like Covid, basically, you know, everyone was moving to Florida. Everyone in the world was living in Florida at that period of time. Texas as well. Right. Because they didn't have lockdown, so. Or they were, they were more lenient with the restrictions. So people were going there because, you know, you could live and do things. And so they're fleeing places like plus there was like, you know, there was work from home or like remote work. So that allowed them to decentralize a workplace. So if you know you're a banker in New York, a lot of them just went down to Florida. Because they didn't have to be in the office. Now what you're seeing is a re. Urbanization of the workplace. So basically, yeah, back to work, return to office. And so if you actually look at Zillow's, like, most recent heat map, I'll. I'll try and pull it up here. But you're seeing actually the opposite of what happened during COVID So California is heating up, New York is heating up. You know, a lot more people moving there. And then your Texas and Florida are pretty much like ground zero for the. The market really, where it's really starting to drop. Florida, we've talked about this a couple of times on the show, but, like, Florida really got hit by that. That regulation around when that condo fell over.
B
No big deal. Just when that condo fell over.
A
Yeah, well, it was a sad. Right. People died, lots of them. But yeah. So, you know, condo building collapsed, and then basically they hit all these other condos with special assessments, and now a bunch of them are, like, completely illiquid. Like, you can't sell. There's tons of blacklisted and unsellable condos, which is reasonable. Yeah, no, for sure. But yeah. So that's going to be a problem that's going to last for a while. Texas is a little different. Like, they didn't get hit that badly with. With stuff like that. And also Florida had the issue with, like, uninsurable properties because of the hurricanes and, like, whole subdivisions getting wiped out from those hurricanes. So there's been, like, you know, a handful of big issues being thrown at Florida. Texas was like, really more of a. From my perspective, at least, like an overbuilding story. Right. So it was like they saw this demand and they were like, hell, yeah, let's go. Giddy up. Right? Yeah. Threw their cowboy hats on and just started building stuff. And then what happened was basically people, you know, like, the. Either people were leaving or the demand slowed. Like, you can really only get so many people. Anybody who's going to make that decision to move to Texas probably did it almost like within the first two years they went there, and then the, you know, the growth wasn't like 10% for five years is straight. So the growth slowed, plus some people left. And now all of a sudden you've got all these, like, new rental buildings and all these new subdivisions being built, and not a lot of people moving there to absorb all of that new supply. So they just. They just balance out the excess demand pretty quickly.
B
I'm actually like, I'm. I. I'd like to check out Texas. I know I say that a lot, but I really do want to check out Texas and see. I have a friend, she was at the gym this morning who moved to Dallas and she's like, she's friends with, she goes to the same gym as Mark Cuban and she's like, it's just crazy, like different out there. And I really think the people from Texas are super nice.
A
Southern hospitality, man.
B
Dude, it's the best. What's like what are the. I think we have it in here but the median price points because I'm curious, like what if we figured out who's buying? Like what are they buying?
A
Yeah.
B
These people buying.
A
Yeah. So the median purchase price is 475,000 for a foreign buyer, which is compared to, you know, it's higher than what the average US median house price is.
B
What's average?
A
Median US average US Homebuyers buying at least during this period of time was buying about 400K 392,000. So okay, it's, you know, it's 15% over that.
B
What about. Okay, and then we covered that. Foreign buyers, I'm assuming it's saying 50% of foreign buyers who paid are paying all cash compared to the 28% among all existing home buyers. I'm assuming that partially has to do with a lot of like just maybe not as great lending options. Well, we know the US lending options aren't great right now in general.
A
Well it depends. I mean for like they have four national loans or like for, for like owner occupied stuff.
B
Right.
A
That you can get for sure. If you're like a Canadian. Like RBC is a good example of like a RBC has like a cross border mortgage program where you can borrow a mortgage to buy in the US TD does too.
B
No, doesn't there TD1?
A
I think most Canadian banks do. Yeah. If you want to buy, if you're buying like a house to live in or like to spend the winters.
B
I'm just wondering what those. Because Canada, I get it but like I'm, I'm curious and it might be challenging for us to find out but what those procedures would look like from someone from India or China or Mexico.
A
You know, probably quite a bit different I would imagine. Like the financial worlds aren't as tightly knit between those countries as they are Canada and the U.S. i mean two of Canada's banks are pretty big banks in the U.S. several are. Like most, most Canadian banks have U.S. operations either on the investment banking side or the retail side.
B
Right.
A
You know, so like if you're A TD customer here. It's obviously pretty easy for you to. I think TD was the 10th biggest bank in the U.S. oh, wow.
B
I didn't know that.
A
Yeah.
B
Interesting. And then 45% of foreign buyers, they're purchasing a property to use as a vacation home rental or both, compared to 16% among all existing home buyers.
A
Yeah.
B
So they're buying. Almost half of the foreign buyers are purchasing as a vacation home, which obviously makes sense. But I honestly do think that's going to change. I know, I know that it can be. I think we're only allowed to spend total of like six months of the year in the US As a Canadian.
A
Yeah. Actually. So this is interesting. I meant to. I think I sent you this link and I was saying we should talk about it. There was a bill just proposed recently. Did. Did you see that? From one of the New York senators, I believe, where. Basically. Let me just see if I can find this on.
B
On Twitter.
A
Yeah, I posted on Twitter.
B
Interesting.
A
They want. She wants to extend the. I don't know if this will pass, but she wants to extend the Canadian. The length that Canadians can stay in the US for. I think it's 182 days right now. And they want to extend it to 240.
B
Oh, wow.
A
Yeah, I'm gonna find it. That's interesting.
B
I think that's gonna change. Like, truthfully, when I started selling real estate in Mexico, it was mostly Airbnb, specifically, like income producing properties. But as the elections happened in the US because that was first, I noticed a huge influx of people looking to buy as much more of a second home or more of like almost a 70%, 80% time of where they spend their time versus the U.S. so it shifted drastically. And I think now that we've had our elections here, like we talked about beginning of the show, I think there's a lot of unhappy Canadians that are probably, maybe looking to spend more time in the US more than 183 days or 182 days.
A
I guess it just depends. Like, do you think that. And like, I'm genuinely curious. Like, do you think that there's as many Canadians who. Because like what you're describing, I think probably would be more like would skew you to young people. I think like the voting in Canada has made it pretty clear. Well, I guess it's like 5050 either way. You slice it. Like boomers are maybe 60% liberal and young people are maybe, you know, 40%. So like, but, you know, it's. It's like close to half either in either direction. You've got a lot of boomers who I think wanted to sell their US properties. Like I've heard, I've spoken with some who have told me this and you know, I mean, again, the whole thing is always kind of confused me because it's like if you're buying real estate, you're doing it for a long term. Like don't make a decision based on a four year political swing. Right, right. In either direction. But I think, I think that there's as many, like as it would appear there's as many Canadians who want to buy in, in the US Now. I mean, I put a poll out a while ago and it said Canadians, would you rather buy and invest in real estate in the U.S. or Canada? Like 70 or 80%, it was like high. 70% said they would rather buy in the U.S. really? Yeah. And I think it's just like the quality of the investment there. Like, you know, I think it's, you know, most jurisdictions are a little bit more landlord friendly than Canada. I think the returns, like you can get, you know, decent, decent cap rates. You know, like you can, you can typically yield like, and actually cover your mortgage, whereas in Canada and, and I think that there's like a lot less volatility as well. Canada's market's been like up and down and up and down. So. Yeah, I think it's interesting. Anyway, so, so let's go back to this thing that we were talking about, extending the Canadian Snowbird Visa Act. It's called to boost the US Economy.
B
They're like, please come back.
A
Isn't that crazy? Yeah. It says they are hoping to extend how long? Canadians who are 50 and older. So you have to be 50 years older and owner lease a residence in the U.S. may stay.
B
That's nonsense.
A
It would expand that time from 182 days to 240 days annually.
B
Who's this person? I'm going to send them a dm, see if I can.
A
I mean you'd have to just open it for everyone.
B
Crazy.
A
And this is kind of because there was last month there was this new rule that began for snowbirds who, you know, people who stay documentation or something. Right? Yeah. Basically they have to now register where they are and what they're doing. Which is like they kind of ask you that when you go, go to the US at the, @ customs anyway. Right?
B
Like, yeah, I did a story about that on my social media and most people were like, it's not like obviously media blows out of proportion, making it seem like it's some like super in depth crazy process that's going to detour. Deter people from coming, but from speaking to people that have done it. It's like super simple apparently.
A
Yeah. I think it's just what you say at the airport maybe.
B
I want to confirm we are live on YouTube. We are not live on Instagram, but.
A
We'Re live on X. And. And what's the other one? LinkedIn too. Yeah.
B
So, dude, I did two posts the last two days of LinkedIn. I wanted to congratulate myself.
A
Big LinkedIn guy.
B
Yeah. The first one I posted, I spent an hour and a half looking through LinkedIn and I was more confused about what I should post than, than last. I was like, I don't. I still.
A
It's a weird platform, man.
B
Just like everyone's just like, I got a new job.
A
Cheering each other on. Yeah, that's. I think that's all it is. Like I got a new job or like, you know, here's some like motivation or like something about like, I don't know, esoteric marketing facts.
B
But is there, is there, is there a space then? Is there a space for us to come in and put maybe more of like a personality in there? Is that.
A
I think I've started to see that actually like people posting like more personality stuff on LinkedIn. Like you like that, like doing, doing like life. Yeah. You do like the very much like lifestyle content, right? I don't do that. It's just charts. Charts are my lifestyle that I do.
B
A couple cool dances on LinkedIn or something, you know, point to different words. Are you a realtor looking to make more money or something, you know?
A
Yeah, I feel like LinkedIn is not enough. Realtors really maximize that platform. I've gotten a lot of deals off LinkedIn, to tell you the truth.
B
You know what I, I'm diving heavy into. This is off topic, but whatever. Get to know Dan. Come into my living room, come on the couch with me. I. I'm gonna dive heavy into YouTube and LinkedIn I think over the next little bit.
A
Are you? Yeah, yeah.
B
Different beasts though, man. Different beasts. Like, it's fairly simple to post on Instagram and, and TikTok, but YouTube is like there's keywords and then there's like, you know, your thumbnail. You gotta have one unless you auto generate it.
A
But yeah, I just use canva for that. ChatGPT is getting good at it too.
B
Is it really? Before it used to you could tell when a chat GPT logo was there.
A
Cause it was just so Obvious for sure.
B
A couple shapes.
A
You still can. Yeah, that's good though. I think that's a good thing. Like that's a feature, not a bug. Because like it'd be. I don't know, it's kind of scary when, like when we can't see, when we can't. Won't be able to recognize it anymore, you know? I know it is, man. That's the weird part.
B
Do you have you ever prompt chatgpt like, like send it a photo of you and be like, give me a AI version of like a realistic.
A
It doesn't look good though. Like weird.
B
It's always way different. It's not, it's not the same. Which is crazy because I'm just giving you an exact picture. But anyway, what do I know?
A
Yeah, I guess it's generating and it's not like photoshopping it, but. Okay. A couple other things here. So 45% of foreign buyers purchased in a suburban area. 76% of foreign buyers purchased a detached single family home or townhome, which is below the 90% of all existing home buyers. So more of them are buying condos basically. Not a massive amount more, but they're buying more condos than compared to. So you're probably. This is probably a lot of. This is like your Florida condos basically. Right.
B
So I think one of the reasons people are coming to those markets because the pricing is probably, maybe better or just more beneficial or easier to get into than their current market maybe.
A
Yeah.
B
So I'm a feeling that the lower price point ones would probably sell quicker.
A
Yeah. Actually let's go to these, the top destinations as well because we didn't get through the whole list. We just did the top three top destinations. Florida, 20% of all purchasers. We did, we did mention that one. Texas we mentioned, but we didn't give. Quantify it. 13% California, 11% Arizona, 5%.
B
I knew Arizona would be there.
A
I knew it would be there too. I. I always thought of Arizona being like. I thought Arizona would have been second, to be honest with you.
B
Yeah, I, I thought.
A
I roll with that, you know, Like I just. They're. They're going to Florida and Arizona.
B
Well, I think like, Eric, for all my, like Arizona is a huge golf city. Like a lot of. I've been there a couple times and it's like only golf dudes on bachelor parties.
A
Yeah. Well, you can't. There's no trees, so you can't. You don't have be good at golf.
B
Yeah, but it's tough there because it goes. The sand is like. It's like desert sand. So it's like rocks. You lose them in the rocks and you can't hit it out of there.
A
Yeah, I go to Palm Springs, and it's like a big golf city, too. It's desert, but. So, okay, so we got Florida, Texas, California, Arizona, and then Georgia, Georgia, Atlanta, and then after that, you've got. Because there's this other table they've got here. New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Illinois, and then Milwaukee, it looks like, which is just kind of a yolo, but I guess it's just like. There's probably a lot of Canadians doing business in Milwaukee.
B
Milwaukee? I thought that was Minnesota.
A
Milwaukee's like.
B
Or.
A
Sorry. Yeah, yeah, that's what I meant to say. Minnesota. Sorry, did I say Milwaukee?
B
I was like, dude, where are you getting Milwaukee from?
A
Just drills, man. Just thinking about. Thinking about power tools all the time. Milwaukee's in Wisconsin. No, me at Minnesota, I think is. No, you know what? That's not it. I don't know. My states. Mi. Was Michigan.
B
Is it Michigan?
A
I don't know.
B
Yeah, we're live right now.
A
It is. Yeah. Frick, man. Dude, I'm. We're done. It's over. I'm ne. I'm ne. Oh, man, I'm in so much trouble, dude. It's. It's Michigan, by the way. Now it makes sense, but same thing. Same. It's same thing as Minnesota, I would say, too, though, right? Because what are they buying in Michigan?
B
I guess.
A
Yeah. Detroit, probably, like a lot of those. All those Windsor investors just buying, like, Detroit, Airbnbs or whatever they're all doing.
B
I think Detroit's making a comeback, though. We did an episode on this and Detroit. Detroit's real estate's doing decent.
A
Yeah, it's soon. Okay.
B
There you go. That makes sense. Am I Michigan?
A
Yeah, it does. Yeah. That makes a lot more sense than. I mean, but I mean, also, I.
B
Mean, dude, you had me at Milwaukee, so.
A
Yeah, I know. I don't know. This morning, my son just always playing with power tools, and he has a little Milwaukee set.
B
I saw that.
A
The 12 volt ones. I had to make some charts out of this stuff. Oh, we got some more people for the top foreign buyers, too. They have a percent share of 10 countries of origin. This top 10 now. So you got Canada, China, Mexico, India, Colombia. Then you got Brazil, uk, Germany, Cuba, and Israel.
B
Interesting.
A
Yeah.
B
Wait, go back up. Yeah, look at. Go. Sorry. Go back to that chart. Sorry. It's crazy that, like, Cuba, Israel were 020-0789 and then they kind of picked up. It's kind of been the same. Cuba's an interesting one. It's like hit or miss.
A
It's crazy to see. If you go back to, like, you look at Canada, 08.09, like, basically, like 2007, Canadians were buying, like, 10% of real estate. So, like, comparable to what we are right now. And this could actually be an interesting thought experiment. Right. Because, like, a lot of people are talking about how Canadians are selling their US Properties. But if you go back to the major Correction in the US07, Canadians were only buying 10%, but then jump to.08, Canadians were buying 23%. And that held in that 20% range basically until 2013. And it started falling again.
B
You'd know this better than me, but I might be. Is that not after the rebound?
A
Yeah, the global financial crisis. So Canadians just swooped in and they were like, we've been waiting for these prices to fall. Right, right, right, right. Honestly, I mean. And I think that'll happen again, too, if the US Goes through a housing correction, which seems like it's within the realm of possibility. You know, if you see house prices drop in the U.S. i think that you're more likely to see an increase in Canadian buyers than a decrease. I think, like, this trade war, turbulence, et cetera, does seem to be materializing more in Canadians selling their properties for now. But I do think that if prices drop, I'm of the opinion there's a lot of Canadians waiting on the sidelines to buy us.
B
I think so.
A
Real estate.
B
I think so.
A
And I think. I don't know so much about China because, like, that's. They've really been the target of. Yeah, that's not the trade war. That. That relationship seems a little strained. But Mexico, India, I mean, you're seeing a lot of, like, improving trade relations between the US And India. Apple's going to be moving a lot of their. Their manufacturing to India away from China, so. And India's actually been seeing an increase in the last couple of years. And this was 10. 10% is actually their record share of total purchase of US real estate. Typically, if you look back, they were within the 6 to 9% range.
B
Wow.
A
And now they just hit 10% for the first time. Everybody else, there's nothing really meaningfully there. UK has been declining substantially over the years. They bought a bunch in 0708 and basically has been steadily declining since then. Cool. Very cool, man.
B
Dude. And we did it live.
A
We did. Yeah. So far.
B
Let's just wrap it up before we make any mistakes.
A
Dude, I already made enough. I'm sufficiently embarrassed. Can never run for prime minister now with that mistake, somebody's gonna like, somebody's gonna bring that up and cancel me.
B
When you run for pm, it's gonna be this. Doesn't know his states. Doesn't even know his state.
A
Doesn't even know what mi state is.
B
Likes Milwaukee drills too much.
A
You can't run for prime minister if you like power tools.
B
That's good stuff, man.
A
Yeah. Cool. Okay. Well, thanks for listening. We enjoyed just messing around, doing this as a live. I think our goal is to try and do this live at least once a week moving forward. And then also maybe, I don't know, we've been talking about maybe doing it daily, but it feels like pretty big commitment. I don't know.
B
It sounds cool on paper.
A
It does. Well, it's just like what time of day would you do that? When are you going to get a bunch of people that to tune in every single day to listen to me and you just ramble on about like random going on in real estate around the world.
B
The problem is like me and you would be like, we should do it.
A
At 4:00am yeah, well, I would do it at like, I would do it at like 7, 8, 9. Like I would do any of those times, probably. To be honest. I think nine put a poll out.
B
And let's see if anyone's. Are we getting comments right now? Like, are we a couple? Are they good ones?
A
I don't know. I'm not seeing any on. I only saw them on. On Twitter, but LinkedIn right now, I don't see anything on LinkedIn now.
B
I mean, next time we'll hook up. I've got to figure out how we gotta hook up the other social media platforms, Instagram, whatever. But I'll User error likely on my behalf.
A
That's all right. We'll figure it out.
B
Cool.
A
Okay. Thanks, Dave.
B
Thank you.
A
Take care.
Summary of "The Biggest Foreign Buyers in U.S. Real Estate"
Real Estate Without Borders
Release Date: May 18, 2025
Introduction
In the episode titled "The Biggest Foreign Buyers in U.S. Real Estate," hosts Daniel Fosh and Dave Hutchinson delve into the dynamics of international investment in the U.S. residential property market. Drawing insights from the latest National Association of Realtors (NAR) report, the discussion uncovers key trends, major investing countries, regional hotspots, and the implications of political and economic shifts on foreign real estate investments.
Overview of Foreign Investment in U.S. Real Estate
Daniel begins the conversation by highlighting a striking statistic from the NAR report: international buyers invested a substantial $42 billion in U.S. residential real estate over the past year, acquiring 54,000 homes. Notably, 50% of these purchases were made as all-cash transactions, contrasting sharply with the predominantly mortgage-dependent domestic market.
Daniel Fosh [01:22]: "Did you know, Dave, that international buyers poured a staggering 42 billion into US residential real estate last year?"
Dave expresses surprise at the sheer volume, prompting a deeper exploration into the behaviors and motivations of these foreign investors.
Top Foreign Buyers: Countries and Investment Volumes
The hosts break down the top countries contributing to foreign real estate investments in the U.S.:
Canada: Comprising 13% of foreign buyers, Canadian investors contributed approximately $5.9 billion. This segment has seen fluctuations tied to political sentiments and economic policies between the two nations.
China: Holding 11% of the buyer share, China leads in dollar volume with $7.5 billion, indicating a preference for higher-priced properties.
Mexico: Also at 11% of buyers, Mexico's investments totaled $2.8 billion, reflecting purchases in more affordable markets compared to their Chinese counterparts.
India: Representing 10% of foreign buyers with an investment of $4.1 billion, India has recently achieved its highest share of U.S. real estate purchases.
Colombia: At 4%, Colombian investors contributed around $0.7 billion.
Dave Hutchinson [04:13]: "We have Canada, China, Mexico, India, Colombia. Then you got Brazil, UK, Germany, Cuba, and Israel."
The discussion points out that while Canada and China top the list, their investment strategies differ significantly, with Canadian buyers often leveraging established banking relationships for mortgages, whereas buyers from countries like India and Mexico predominantly engage in all-cash transactions.
Impact of Political Factors
The recent elections in the U.S. and Canada have introduced uncertainties affecting foreign investment flows. Both hosts note how political disagreements can influence where investors choose to allocate their capital.
Daniel Fosh [02:25]: "A lot of US capital is looking to move to places like Canada, Mexico, Europe, et cetera... and a lot of Canadian capital who agrees with the outcome of the U.S. election looking to invest in the U.S."
Specifically, Canadian boomers, historically liberal, are reportedly selling their properties in Florida due to dissatisfaction with new trade policies and regional developments.
Trends in Foreign Investment: Decline Since 2017
Analyzing historical data, Daniel observes a decrease in foreign demand for U.S. real estate since peaking around 2016-2017. The conversation distinguishes between two types of foreign buyers:
The decline is attributed to various factors, including economic shifts and regulatory changes in countries like Canada and Spain, which have imposed limitations on foreign capital inflows to address local affordability issues.
Daniel Fosh [08:48]: "The foreign demand for US real estate has actually decreased significantly since 2017."
Regional Analysis: Florida, Texas, California, and More
Florida emerges as the leading destination, accounting for 20% of all international purchases, followed by Texas (13%) and California (11%). The preference for these warm-climate states is linked to their attractiveness as vacation spots and retirement havens.
However, recent developments have impacted these markets:
Florida: Challenges include condo collapses leading to illiquidity and uninsurable properties due to hurricanes, dampening investment enthusiasm.
Daniel Fosh [12:48]: "Florida really got hit by that regulation around when that condo fell over."
Texas: Initially benefitted from a real estate boom driven by remote work during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, overbuilding has led to an oversupply of rental units and new subdivisions, balancing out excess demand.
California and New York: Contrary to the pandemic-era exodus to sunnier states, these traditional hotspots are experiencing a resurgence in interest, with their markets heating up as urban centers regain their allure.
Daniel Fosh [11:01]: "Florida's stealing the show with 20% of all international purchases, followed by Texas and California."
Dave adds personal anecdotes about the real estate landscape in Texas and shares insights into the cultural appeal of states like Arizona and Georgia.
Financing Foreign Buyers: All-Cash Transactions vs. Mortgages
A significant portion of foreign investors opts for all-cash purchases (50%) compared to 28% of domestic buyers. This trend is partially due to limited access to favorable lending options for non-residents from countries outside Canada.
However, Canadian investors benefit from established cross-border mortgage programs offered by banks like RBC and TD, facilitating easier financing for U.S. property acquisitions. In contrast, buyers from countries like India, China, or Mexico often lack similar lending ties, necessitating all-cash transactions.
Daniel Fosh [15:06]: "Foreign buyers are paying all cash compared to the 28% among all existing home buyers."
Future Outlook: Regulatory Proposals and Market Dynamics
The episode touches upon a recent legislative proposal aimed at extending the allowable stay for Canadian "snowbirds" in the U.S. from 182 days to 240 days annually. This initiative, spearheaded by a New York senator, seeks to bolster the U.S. economy by encouraging longer-term investments from Canadian retirees.
Daniel Fosh [20:21]: "They want to extend that time from 182 days to 240 days annually."
While the proposal's success remains uncertain, both hosts speculate on its potential impact, suggesting it could incentivize more robust investment from Canadians dissatisfied with domestic or political conditions.
Additionally, the hosts reflect on historical patterns, noting that periods of U.S. housing market corrections have historically attracted increased Canadian investment, as seen during the 2007-2008 financial crisis.
Daniel Fosh [28:09]: "If you see house prices drop in the U.S., I think that you're more likely to see an increase in Canadian buyers than a decrease."
Conclusion
Daniel and Dave wrap up the episode by acknowledging the complexities and evolving nature of foreign investment in U.S. real estate. They emphasize the importance of monitoring political and economic developments both domestically and internationally, as these factors significantly influence investment flows and market dynamics.
Dave Hutchinson [29:44]: "And we did it live."
The hosts express their enthusiasm for making such insightful discussions more interactive in future live sessions, aiming to engage their audience more directly and provide real-time analysis of global real estate trends.
Notable Quotes with Timestamps
This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the current landscape of foreign investment in U.S. real estate, offering valuable insights for investors looking to navigate and capitalize on international opportunities.