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Real Estate Without Borders
The Surprising Countries Where Real Estate Prices Soared the Most (and Why)
00:29:24
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- [00:02]
A
Welcome back to Real Estate Without Borders, joined here as always by the global money movie mover. Not. Not a money mover, movie money mover extraordinaire, Cameron Hutchinson. We're going to be talking about. I got the real estate lens here. He's got the whatever else matters to. To this equation lens. Which is, which is interesting because today we're going to be talking about the global economies that saw the biggest increases in nominal house prices which you know, adjusted for what you were mentioning, like forex and inflation, you know, is a different story. Right. So I just sent you this article from Global Property Guide and then you kind of plugged it into like, I guess like Claude and actually analyzed it a little bit heavier. But let's just. Well, anyway, anything on your mind, Anything you want to talk about today?
- [00:50]
B
No, I'll say. You know, thank God for that because running the numbers by myself would have taken forever. But it's a cool article. Kind of looking at shows right there, plus price changes. So which markets have done the best over the last number of years? Funnily enough, you know, this is me being poor at geography. That first country there was Andorra. I'd never even heard of. It looks like saving in the mountains. So yeah, there's something to aspire to live in.
- [01:17]
A
There you go.
- [01:18]
B
Yeah, I mean it's a great table. But I was thinking about it, you know, as you mentioned before, a lot of the people are, A lot of the listeners thought the bulk of them and it's still kind of the global standard from a currency standpoint. People from the United States. Yeah. So you can look at this information and we'll dive into it because you can kind of point out.
- [01:34]
A
Because you pegged them all to the USD. Right.
- [01:37]
B
Looked at a five year return.
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A
And we'll jump into it further.
- [01:41]
B
But yeah, because I. Probably the lowest time you'd want to hold a real estate property from. Yeah, at least in my mind. Right. From the cost. And you'll know these things better. The cost of picking something up or ultimately selling it with all the fees you associate with it.
- [01:59]
A
Yeah, you're definitely not, you're not trading day, you're not day trading real estate.
- [02:03]
B
Right.
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A
So a lot of switching costs, you know, often, often attached to debt on amortization schedules. So yeah, I mean if you're doing it right, you certainly shouldn't be buying and selling it on a regular basis, that's for sure.
- [02:15]
B
Yeah. Realtor fees alone.
- [02:17]
A
So, okay, so this list said the biggest winners, nominal year over year price change, Vietnam, 24.33%, Hungary 23.54, Portugal 23.25. And then you have 16 and under would be Croatia, Denmark, Kazakhstan, Puerto Rico, Montenegro, Spain and Bulgaria. Top five markets with negative price growth year over year change. Egypt down 8%, Macau, Canada down 5%, Luxembourg down 3.36% and Finland down 3%. Go out to cast that out to the five year. You get like what's, I mean, China saw one of the biggest ones as well. China down 8.3%.
- [02:58]
B
Yeah, I mean that's been very publicly discussed. Right?
- [03:04]
A
Yeah, we were going to mention it on. I think I mentioned it, but there's a chart like China just round tripped. I think I want to say like 20 years of like, of, of house price growth. I gotta find it. Give me a sec.
- [03:17]
B
Yeah, curious. I mean we'll, we'll dive into a little bit more, but you can see how that overlays over into Hong Kong as one of the markets. It's had a huge sell off as well over the last five years. And a lot of that has to do with obviously, you know, China's kind of taking back over some of the ownership and leadership there, but people not sure of the crossover effects to how that will affect their market. So they've jumped ahead of it.
- [03:41]
A
But yeah, 20 years. 20. 20 years of gains back to 2005.
- [03:48]
B
Pricing crazy, right? Because we're starting 20.
- [03:53]
A
Yeah. We're like, we're chipping. We're like 20, 20, 20, 21.
- [03:58]
B
Yeah, yeah.
- [04:00]
A
So, yeah, I don't know.
- [04:02]
B
There's some cool markets there. Right. Like ones that Vietnam, everyone that has traveled there always speaks only of it and people love to go there. And we're talking about the other week, kind of an outflow and you're still continuing to see the statistics of it, of, call it Western society and retirement, finding low cost of living.
- [04:19]
A
Yeah.
- [04:20]
B
And that's why you've seen an increase in Portugal. But you're seeing more and more people, I'll call them, getting a little bit more adventurous and looking into those markets as well.
- [04:26]
A
Well, I think like it's a, it's almost like a desperation thing. Right. Like, you know, if you look at, I feel like a lot of boomers in retirement are now realizing that it might not have been as rich as they thought. Right. Like, it's like the opposite of like up. We have Scotiabank, they have that, like that rich. You're richer than you think. It's like. Well, I mean, you know, for, for a lot of people, I think it's you're less rich than you think and
- [04:46]
B
the cost of living in inflation will crush you on it. And so if you're thinking about how far the dollar goes or the looney or what have you, you can get over there and cut down your, your requirements of spending and still collect, you know, your pensions or whatnot. So yeah, I wonder if that's one of the upticks for, for the Vietnam area. But you know, not to kind of jump into it, as we talked about before, what I was looking to do is basically tailor it out to being your US dollar. You're purchasing a million dollars because it's a clean number property in one of those markets. Plus I focused in on a couple of the other ones using that information that we've seen and we know that there's a good outflow investment from kind of the key markets that we're talking about too is the cost of people, etc. I'm going to see if I can share successfully on this thing, pull it up. So while they're not the biggest winners and losers, but this one's going to run through is looking at, as you had mentioned before, I can't remember if I dropped inflation into this, but I dropped currency fluctuation. So the principle being taken, you're a US citizen, you're taking a million bucks, you're buying a million dollar property five years ago in Costa Rica. What's the returns on the property market from that article that you sent? And then ultimately if you're selling it back five years time, excluding all the service fees, taxes, et cetera, what would the return be? Back into dollars. And it starts to paint a pretty cool picture from an investment standpoint. And it shows that when you're investing into a market, you're running the risk of both of them. So there's potential upside and potential downside. One of the coolest ones or the biggest percentage winner, one of them is Costa Rica. Right. So I did a little bit more research into there for argument's sake. Five years ago you dropped a million bucks into Costa Rica on property you'd seen, you know, made almost a half a million dollars.
- [06:41]
A
Right.
- [06:43]
B
38% of that, 39% of that's come to the property market. You know, we've been seeing as we've talked about before and some other people line, and even from people within my own life, I'm starting to look at properties down there outside of the states because of the cost and whatnot. So their properties increased by 39% over that period of time. But the local currency has increased in value by 25% over that five year term, which is a few against the US dollar which is a huge swing and that's an added benefit for anybody that's purchased into there. So you get to get those double profits on that. They've done a lot as a country to shore up their financial infrastructure and their financial systems and increase anytime you increase the likelihood of development obviously that increases the demand for the currency as well, which they've done a very good job for. But you know, five years against the dollar to have a 25 increase in your investment is great, it's come with fluctuations. But again five years is pretty great. Right. So you can see almost like a 15 points additional FX tailwind increases there. Yeah. Another interesting one and you know you've spoken to people in the past is Portugal. You'll see, you know this goes to like you know, Croatia as well, number of other countries. The euro strengthened against the dollar over the last little bit quite heavily. It was down low five years ago. So that helps with that.
- [08:07]
A
But that's in, that's on a five year like because if I pull up like every major currency appreciated against the USD in 2025, where's the Euro? Euro was up 13 against the USD since the beginning of the trade war basically. Yeah. So I mean so you so like in most cases you benefit from for a forex tailwind save for a couple of markets where you know they weakened and that probably a lot of that nominal price growth actually just came from inflation or debasement of their currency relative to the USD maybe.
- [08:41]
B
Yeah. So Hungary, you pointed out before, sure. Why the housing prices up in Hungary went crazy. Returns 50% basically over that five year period. But it's being offset by the huff which is their local currency having a weakening now. It's taking a little bit of your returns away. But still if you did that investment you would have made a killing off of it. So you do still see some markets. Canada is another one. If you're buying. We're talking about properties up in the muskokas in the lake region for the cats actually game against it. So when you're selling, buying in, you can take that arbitrage. We're talking about it. That's why they're seeing an increase up there. But they're going wow, Today it's at 139 and change. That's almost 40% discount from a currency standpoint. But when you're divesting from the market, you've seen a bit of a weakening of it. So it's helped to some of your returns. The most staggering one and you've looked at this market before is Japan where they've actually seen you know, from a five year period house pricing increase a decent amount but it's completely wiped out. If you're selling it now off of the yen collapsing and so you lost 30% of the value. So ultimately, even though there's been an increase in value in your properties in those markets, I hope you enjoyed them if you were investing because if you sell today, you know you're down 30 over your currency. So you've actually taken a loss on that investment. One of the interesting things with currencies is it changes insanely rapidly. Right. So you can always use that from a timing standpoint. But it's interesting to watch kind of the returns get stripped out. I talked about it briefly before and we'll jump into them and we've talked about how certain currencies are pegged to the dollar. So Hong Kong, you've seen a drop in the value housing pricing by 30% is what Claude in that article is telling us. You have no currency risk within that market because it's so their currency will always be the exact same exchange rate. So that's a pure. If you invest in those markets divide being the other one again we're looking at five years. We don't know where it's going to go given everything that's going on as we've again detailed in other episodes. But you're removing your US dollar currency risk unless they decide which is that can happen. There's a whole bunch of reasons why you're purely doing. Even though it's a national market, you're clearly doing a housing play in a place like Hong Kong which 15 years ago I don't think you ever, you know, the houses were more expensive than New York and it's still in the most expensive places to live. But that's an international investment. That's purely a, a market play rather than a currency play. But right. Ultimately it's kind of interesting to watch give a good light into how you're taking an investment in both the currency local economy as well as, you know, the beautifulness of Mexico.
- [11:52]
A
Yeah. 100 I, I think it is like it's so easy to not like it's so easy to think about real global real estate investing as just real estate investing and how you know, there's this, you know, especially right now with like with bond yields and you know, like what's happening in the bond markets, I mean all the, all the long duration bond yields are ripping. I mean even like, even seems like they're trying to do a little bit of yield curve control or like suppress rates on the front end of the, of the bond curves. But they, you know, and we'll, we'll talk a little bit about indebtedness to like Nash from a country perspective, national perspective, but also an individual perspective. But interest rates play like, local interest rates play a big, big role in your, your yields in a lot of those economies, but also currency. Right. And, and like this is what makes international real estate investing so dynamic. And then you get to the point where I mean you can use Canada as an example. Like Canada just came into a tech technical recession, but then we had a super positive jobs print today. And so, and, and the market wasn't really even buying the technical recession print because it was such a low like decline.
- [13:03]
B
0.1%.
- [13:04]
A
Yeah. Annualized like on a, on a, on a quarter quarterly basis. It was like it read out at zero. Right. It was like yeah, you know, 0.025 or something like that. So the, you know, yields, yields actually went up on that and then yields went up on, on the job print. And what happens as a result? Well, there's a, the bank of Canada, are they sort of stuck now and waiting for the Fed to cut? And you get a lot of this happening kind of around the world where central banks are sort of like playing chicken of like to see if the Fed actually ever, ever ends up getting room to room these things. Like you don't, you don't really think about it until you start realizing like I am buying, I'm going to be converting currency to buy something. And now all of a sudden this stuff becomes incredibly relevant. And I didn't even really like evaluate this nearly well enough until you hopped on as a co host on the show. Because I was just like, yeah, like you know, you'll buy and like it's that day's exchange rate and then you know, you've converted your currency and then you just do you hold your real estate investment and you're a real estate operator and you bring the deal through its thesis and then you kind of convert it back. It's like well a lot of market happens between that five year period or ten year period that can drastically change your, your investment thesis. So unless you really like, unless you're really doing this for a long term and you intend to keep the money in that currency, in that nation's currency, like you do have a ton of exposure on the way in and the way out to, to the market. Risk volatility, geopolitical geopolitics, et cetera. Which is why we talk so much about freaking macro and geopolitics on the show. Right. Just fascinating.
- [14:42]
B
Exactly. And it's been an interesting time to jump into it just because there's been so much change happening rapidly over in the last year and a half within geopolitical risk and stuff along those lines. It is a cool side from the investment standpoint. You know, I was looking at those ones and I'm thinking of, of places that I've been to and it's like, oh, Croatia's was one of the top gainers. I was like, oh, that makes sense to me. I don't know if you've ever been there, but like that's a beautiful spot. Yeah, Europeans really like it.
- [15:12]
A
Montenegro was way up there too, right?
- [15:14]
B
I think so, yeah. And then a couple tax havens which might, if you wanted to really get conspiracy theorist on it, you know, people might be dumping into purchasing the tax haven properties from up here market risk and taking away from their own investment standpoint of any additional cost from a retirement and divesting of the businesses.
- [15:37]
A
Well, you see like a lot of those like a lot of countries in like the Eurozone and like also near Russia where maybe you're seeing some capital flight out of like some of those more volatile economies there, like Russia being a pretty good example. Right. Like into the former ussr, et cetera where you know they're saying hey, like maybe we'll start pumping some, some cash into. Because like real estate's a really interesting asset class to pay attention to when you think about like foreign direct investment. Because like it's in, in countries where you have a stable like and predictable and high trust land registry system, people really use it as like a, you know, like a savings account. Right. Or like a, you know, it's like
- [16:16]
B
they're not store wealth.
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A
Yeah. Like you're not, you're not really trying to generate exceptional yield. Right. It's just like, you know, you saw this in China where you know, China is the, the largest buyer of U.S. real estate by, by dollar volume. Canada is the largest buyer of U.S. real estate by number of properties. So, so they're buying lower priced properties on average. You know, China, where ahead of the capital controls, you know, they're still seeing, you're still seeing quite a bit. But ahead of the capital capital controls you saw a lot of Chinese sort of like upper Middle class kind of wealth where people were starting to get afraid of maybe the, you know, the government changing the way that they could move their capital out of the country, flooding that, that into real estate at like stupid valuations, right. Like just insane. Like you know, Toronto or Vancouver or LA is a very popular one in the US right? New York City, they don't, they, they see house prices are up 30% a year, year over year, they're like yeah, whatever, it was 60% in Shenzhen, so who cares, right? Like I'll take the risk but. And the interesting part that I think that a lot of people dismiss about foreign investment in many countries is like you're in many cases you have a wealthier consumer but you also have an irrational consumer because they just don't understand the local market. Like it's like, like the easy way to think about this is like if you live in, I don't know, like Ohio and you are trying to buy property in, you know, la, you just don't know the market. Right. And so you're more likely to pay a different price or a higher price. And so you, the foreign direct investment in real estate introduces an irrational consumer. And, and then, then you think about, then you stack on top of that incentives. Like if I'm, if I'm from China and I am worried about capital controls and all, my primary goal of buying real estate in LA is that I just don't want the government to be able to see my, my domestic government to be able to see, I don't really care like that, that I have a qualitative incentive to pay whatever to achieve that goal. And, and I'm, and I end up becoming price independent. So I think that that economic incentives piece is another interesting piece to stack on top of it.
- [18:24]
B
Interestingly enough, you know, historically or stereotypically speaking, it's also cultural thing, you know, the Chinese put a huge amount of additional value and security on real estate. So it's multi generational, it's tangible and it's part of their culture. I think that's being stress tested over the last five years as you know,
- [18:43]
A
real, at least domestically for sure, 100%.
- [18:47]
B
Right. And, but that's been another reason why you've seen such gobble up, you know, anything from pen houses all the way to city blocks and major cities because culturally that's where they like to invest their money. Yeah, that stuff's being stress tested within our like the Toronto market as well. And growing up here it was, you put money into the market and that sets you up for life once you can kind of get that first hurdle. And now we're our generation and younger. Is that theory is being stress tested a little bit also. And it's like why not look at the stock market. You know my. That might be stress tested pretty heavily over the next couple years from a stock comparison as well. But I think you're seeing a cultural tip from both of us.
- [19:31]
A
100% man. Anything else we wanted to. To cover on this one? I think I have the indebtedness. I can do the indebtedness thing that I sent you because I think. I think that one's interesting. But anything else on the. On the prices and forex before I jump over to that or.
- [19:46]
B
I think it's. I think it's worthwhile just kind of shooting out what was that. That original article published that. There we go. Because that's an interesting piece if anybody wanted to deep dive into it and I'm sure if they do a quick Google search they can pull it up.
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A
Was that the global House price Index?
- [20:02]
B
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [20:04]
A
Global Property Guide which I use a lot like when we're doing these episodes just because they. They seem to have the best on this stuff. We should get somebody from there on the show actually to be honest with you.
- [20:14]
B
That would be great. It's amazing what we think of while chatting along. Yeah. I'll see if we can reach out to some people there because that. It was just quite interesting and it opened it up to markets that I wasn't thinking of like Luxembourg and one of the ones that had done surprisingly well which is interesting because of the proximity to life and all that stuff was Luffy.
- [20:34]
A
Yeah. So is the assumption on that like that it's probably Russian capital flowing into some of those countries because you know there's some like Poland is an example where like you know they. I don't think they invest right. Because they're not like as. I don't think there's a friend as friendly of a relationship. And Poland really seems to be like anti immigration and foreign direct investment etc and they're really focused on like growing GDP per capita. Poland's been an insane success story on GDP per capita basis. But then you get. I think some of the countries that may be more friendly to foreign capital from certain jurisdictions that would benefit. So I'm curious. We'll do some research on that one and then circle back on it maybe for the next. For next week but. And I'll see if I can get somebody from Global Property Guide on. On the on the show as well.
- [21:18]
B
Throw your weight around a little bit. Pull somebody big in.
- [21:22]
A
Yeah yeah. Let's. Let's jump over to debt here. So household debt to. To income. Right. So. So it's interesting or sorry, this is household debt per capita and I know we covered this on one of the more recent episodes like how in Switzerland they were I think but the other one is debt to household income. I gotta, I gotta pull up the deja nan one because I think like this is where. Where am I?
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B
Is this it?
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A
Yeah.
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B
This one we had touched based on because of the Switzerland and they had the, the different mortgage rules.
- [21:57]
A
Yeah. This one here is like debt, household debt to income is a. Is the interesting one to me like so I like. I track Canada obviously quite a bit but you know you've seen a lot of places like Deleverage post post global financial crisis. But when I look at countries that like probably would be. Would end up becoming more investable maybe over the next little bit that I probably necessarily wouldn't pile into over over the near term like when we discuss Switzerland etc. But like probably are going to see the most pressure as a result of what's happening with bond yields right now. I look at places like like a Canada or like the. The per cap on a per capita basis like we were just mentioning. So I think you're probably still early in the trade for some of those countries where they have pretty high debt exposure. I don' thoughts are on that.
- [22:39]
B
You know, if I were you had that one up there where it's the debt compared to income. To me if it's a high ratio that means houses are overvalued because you can't afford to keep them up.
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A
Right.
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B
So if you're thinking about it from an international standpoint of markets you want to go into. In my mind you'd want to go into ones where one it's a nice place to go. There's good returns on it. But purely from you know, the capital in capital out standpoint the debt to household income would be the lowest because I know that there's the most market room to grow depending on cultural aspects. From a lending standpoint.
- [23:13]
A
Right.
- [23:14]
B
Who likes to go into debt if you're topped out? We were topped out there pretty bad. And everybody knows this about our economy and housing market and stuff along those lines. But in my mind that puts you more at risk for one recession or one person with double household income or someone to lose their jobs flow or like increase downward pressure. So the way that I think about it while talking, look at it is go, okay, is the. And you'd have to think about some other things of international investment. But if the household income is low, that should in theory give you more room for potential growth in the long term because people.
- [23:57]
A
Yeah, fair. Yeah. It's interesting like, because I feel like debt like, you know, we've been talking a lot about prices and Forex, but I feel like debt is becoming a very interesting part of the equation right now. Right. Like us two years just hit a 52 week high today, jumped up above 4%. I know. I think you're a bit more involved in the bond space. I don't know what your new setup is, but like really interesting. You know this better than I do though, right.
- [24:24]
B
I really checked the interest rate futures, which is ultimately. And then what the Fed's looking at doing and that ultimately play a role. And the bond market will help push what they want to do. We said it before, the old theory is the bond market's the adult in the room and now the Fed's starting to talk about having to potentially. Or the market's starting to say they'll probably have to look at raising, which is another from a market.
- [24:46]
A
Well, I think there's 100% pricing on Fed fund futures that we'll see a hike before the end of the year at least. If you go out to. Where am I?
- [24:55]
B
July.
- [24:57]
A
Yeah. So if you add like the 84, it's like 3% chance that they hold. Not, not even cut. Right. And that's, that's by July. If we go out to December.
- [25:05]
B
Look how quickly that shifted.
- [25:07]
A
Yeah, yeah, yeah. And yeah, it's funny because like, you know, there's this idea that like Trump installed warsh to, you know, to get cut and now we're like, now we're talking about hikes so. Well, now it's like he's got no choice.
- [25:23]
B
Yeah. Like he's got no choice other than like that's what the smarter people, the analysts and the banks are all saying is wow, you know, at the market where it's at, you don't have no choice. And that's why you've seen it spike. You know, all that information that we were looking at from kind of the investment side from the US dollar before and the comparison for it that can vastly change over the next couple days, next couple months, depending what the US dollar sits at from terms of kind of bringing the money back out.
- [25:52]
A
Yeah.
- [25:52]
B
Just quickly. And the bond market will push these things further and further into it and then T bills and all that stuff.
- [25:59]
A
Yeah. And then you get like Japan, I mean this is our 10 year but like Japan 30 year I think hit a record high 10 years ripping. Like if you go out to 25 year, I can't go, can't pull this
- [26:10]
B
up
- [26:13]
A
on the 10 year chart. Like it's just so, so like thoughts are like are we, are we in a higher for longer interest rate environment? Is that what the market's trying to price us into right now?
- [26:23]
B
Yeah, you know and do you believe that thesis personally?
- [26:27]
A
Like I always fade states will be longer. Did I show, I showed you that? Yeah. Well like. And they're also in an era of fiscal dominance. Right? Like that, you know, you can't, you can't. It doesn't matter what the central bank does when the government's spending this much money. I, I've put this chart up before, right. Like Fed fund futures always wrong pretty much. But you know like it's, I just, I have a hard time. Like I'm of the opinion that you'll see oil price spike, demand destruction, recession, rate cuts. I actually think that's just the more likely path and it's kind of a coin toss like 5050 on whether or not Fed fund futures are correct. But like I understand why the market is pricing the way that it's pricing and I think that it matters and people should like I, I wouldn't base my investment decisions on the thesis that I just outlined to you that I'm assuming that rates are going to come down. You know what I mean? Like I would base my investment decisions on what the market's telling me today.
- [27:22]
B
But I do think stress test both sides.
- [27:25]
A
Yeah, yeah, but, but yeah, it's like, it's pretty like you what you U.S. mortgage rates are over 7% again.
- [27:30]
B
So yeah, they're starting to get back up there.
- [27:32]
A
But this is where it becomes very, very interesting for people who like are, you know, characteristically real estate investors is well what if like you know, you get, you get that kind of like that carry trade. Like you get the, you know, everybody. The reason I pulled up Japan is like you had the Japan carry trade, right? Everybody would borrow in the yen and then they would go buy stuff in USD. Or even if you're just buying US Bonds and you captured the spread. It's like okay, well what if we're doing the opposite with us, you know, we're, we're buying, we're buying real estate in other countries where we can get a lower mortgage rate and capturing the greater appreciation and borrowing at a lower rate to try and reduce our exposure to these hefty higher for longer US interest rate environments. And does that create a net capital outflow of USD not just into other countries for real estate, but in other things, other asset classes?
- [28:23]
B
I think you're asking future looking. I think with all these massive IPOs coming out instead, I'll tell you a good if, if they don't go perfectly, I think you'll see a big spook in a lot of different markets from it of saying, oh no, we, there's always the article one saying we're in a time of the greatest growth, future growth ever because of AI and then other people saying that it's going to be a bubble and if you see those that wealth deterioration kind of start going away if these IPOs don't go well, I think you'll see that ripple out and affect everything else as well.
- [28:53]
A
Yeah, 100%. 100 man. Okay, well we'll, we'll leave it at that. And I don't know what we're covering next week, but we'll, we'll get to it. And I think that's it. Eh. Nothing else.
- [29:04]
B
Yeah, no, that's a great article to be able to jump into.
- [29:07]
A
Yeah, it's an easy one. And well, it's from Global Property Guide. I'm sending him an email right now. We're gonna try and get him on the show. So let's see, let's see what happens. Fingers crossed. I mean, we've had the chief economist from NAR here, so I feel like this should be a layup.
- [29:18]
B
Cool.
- [29:19]
A
All right.
- [29:19]
B
Plug in their stuff the whole time too, right?
- [29:21]
A
For sure.
- [29:24]
B
Appreciate.