Overtime – Episode #680: Neil deGrasse Tyson, Donna Brazile, Andrew Sullivan

Summary

Summary of Real Time with Bill Maher – Overtime Episode #680

Release Date: November 26, 2024

Panelists:

• Neil deGrasse Tyson – Astrophysicist and Author
• Donna Brazile – Democratic Strategist and Former DNC Chair
• Andrew Sullivan – Writer and Political Commentator
• Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States

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1. Asteroid Collision Threats and Earth's Preparedness

Timestamp: 00:51 - 03:06

The episode kicks off with a critical discussion on the potential threats posed by asteroid collisions with Earth. Host Bill Maher poses the question regarding the seriousness of these threats and whether humanity is adequately prepared to handle such catastrophes.

• Neil deGrasse Tyson emphasizes the urgency:

  "If one hits and it destroys the entire population of the world, that would be bad. And so you have to ask if there's any risk of that in the next thousand years. It seems to me it's worth a little bit of insurance money to put in there to create a mission to deflect it." [01:36]

• Andrew Sullivan probes into the methods of deflection:

  "How do you do that?" [02:04]

• Tyson explains the strategy:

  "You have robots, spaceships. So if you nudge it early enough, then that little bit of vector you give it will accumulate so they can miss Earth completely." [02:08]

• Kamala Harris adds humor to the conversation:

  "She will deflect it. And with her superpowers, things will be okay." [03:27]

2. The Prospect of a Female President

Timestamp: 03:06 - 08:30

The panel transitions to exploring the possibility of a female president in the United States, debating whether a conservative woman might emerge before a liberal one.

• Kamala Harris expresses optimism:

  "We will have a Democratic female president in my lifetime." [03:13]

• Donna Brazile highlights global trends:

  "It's interesting how many global women leaders have come from the right... Merkel as a Democrat." [04:15]

• Andrew Sullivan critiques the Democratic nomination process:

  "It's late... if anything, our elections should be like Britain and like other countries, they don't need 100 days." [06:21]

• Tyson references historical figures:

  "Shirley Chisholm didn't get anywhere. But she ran for president." [06:07]

3. Ellen DeGeneres Leaving the Country

Timestamp: 08:30 - 12:02

The discussion shifts to Ellen DeGeneres' decision to leave the United States, sparking debate over political influences on entertainers.

• Andrew Sullivan questions the consistency:

  "I'm just asking about that. I don't... it doesn't completely compute." [08:48]

• Neil deGrasse Tyson expresses skepticism:

  "Do you think she's really gonna leave?" [09:20]

• Donna Brazile provides context:

  "Her mother... always lived in LA. Right now she's in the Cotswolds." [09:37]

4. Elon Musk and Human Missions to Mars

Timestamp: 12:02 - 13:20

The conversation turns to Elon Musk’s ambitions to send humans to Mars, with the panel assessing the feasibility and motivations behind such ventures.

• Andrew Sullivan asks:

  "How soon could Elon Musk realistically send humans to Mars?" [10:33]

• Neil deGrasse Tyson shares skepticism:

  "What does that venture capitalist meeting look like, Elon? What do you want to do?... Is it safe? No." [10:41]

• Tyson elaborates on geopolitical factors:

  "That means we're incapable as a species of truly understanding risk." [12:02]

5. Voting Patterns of LGBTQ+ and Jewish Communities

Timestamp: 13:20 - 15:05

The panel examines the voting behaviors of LGBTQ+ and Jewish communities, noting strong support for Democratic candidates in recent elections.

• Andrew Sullivan points out statistics:

  "Gays voted for Kamala 84% and Jews 79%." [13:25]

• Donna Brazile clarifies demographic complexities:

  "The vast majority, 40% of that are bisexual women... we don't know." [13:57]

• Neil deGrasse Tyson discusses polling challenges:

  "But if we don't have polling of them, how do you present those statistics..." [14:28]

6. Trust in Medical Interventions and Vaccination

Timestamp: 15:05 - 17:34

The panel delves into public trust in medical interventions, particularly vaccines, highlighting challenges arising from statistical misunderstandings.

• Neil deGrasse Tyson argues:

  "We're incapable as a species of truly understanding risk." [15:38]

• Andrew Sullivan emphasizes balanced skepticism:

  "Just being skeptical of all medical interventions, as everyone should." [15:59]

• Donna Brazile acknowledges the importance of trust:

  "We don't really know how gays voted." [15:38]

• Kamala Harris and Tyson discuss the societal contracts surrounding public health measures:

  "There's a social contract to not infect other people." [17:03]

Conclusion

The episode concludes with light-hearted banter and promotional segments, adhering to the podcast’s standard wrap-up procedures. The panelists share final thoughts and engage in humorous exchanges, maintaining the engaging atmosphere characteristic of "Real Time with Bill Maher."

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This summary captures the essence of Episode #680, highlighting the key discussions and notable insights shared by the panelists. Quotes are attributed with corresponding timestamps to provide context and facilitate easy reference for those who wish to delve deeper into specific segments of the conversation.

Transcript

[Bill Maher]

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[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

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[Bill Maher]

You just have to manage dozens of channels, launch hundreds of campaigns, score thousands of leads and.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Okay, fine, it's a lot of sweat.

[Bill Maher]

Unless you have HubSpot's AI powered marketing tools to help you do all that and more.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Get [e-mail] marketers. Welcome to an HBO podcast from the HBO late night series Real Time with Bill Maher.

[Andrew Sullivan]

All right, here's our overtime panel. The world's great astrophysicist and number one best selling author of Merlin's Tour of the Universe, Neil Degrasse Tyson. He writes the weekly Dish newsletter in the essay collection out on a Limb, Andrew Sullivan. And the great democratic strategist and former DNC chair and ABC News contributor Donna Brazile. Okay, here are the questions. First one is for you. How serious are asteroid collision threats? Are we adequately prepared for a catastrophe if the Earth is hit?

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

No, great.

[Donna Brazile]

Wait.

[Andrew Sullivan]

No to engineering? No to both questions. How serious are they?

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Yeah, well, so if one hits and it destroys the entire population of the world, that would be bad. And so you have to ask if there's any risk of that in the next thousand years. It seems to me it's worth a little bit of insurance money to put in there to create a mission to deflect it. And it's not, it's not what Bruce Willis did. We don't. In America, we're good at blowing stuff up and we're less good at knowing where the pieces go. So you want to deflect it.

[Andrew Sullivan]

How do you do that?

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

We have 20 ways that we've.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Name one.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Name one. You go up to it and nudge it.

[Andrew Sullivan]

What do you mean you go up to it?

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Well, robots, not you, but spaceships. So if you nudge it early enough, then that little bit of vector you give it will accumulate so they can miss Earth completely. That's why early detection, like with cancer, early detection of asteroids is what you need in order to make sure the future of Earth is safe. And I've spoken with the head of the space Force and I said, if you're going to defend us or the Earth, let's include defending us against asteroid strikes. So I'M trying to make sure it's on their radar.

[Andrew Sullivan]

And were they receptive to that?

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Yes, it was General Raymond at the beginning of the Space Force.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Space Force, Wow. I have one in their jacket.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

You got to meet his badass. You got it.

[Andrew Sullivan]

I mean, I don't feel like I should wear it because I'm not in it, but I do.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Yeah.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Donna, are we more likely to see a conservative female president before a liberal one? That's an interesting question.

[Kamala Harris]

I think we'll see a Democrat, a Democratic. We've had three. We've had Geraldine Ferraro as a nominee, Hillary Clinton is a nominee, Kamala Harris as a nominee. We will have a Democratic female president in my lifetime.

[Andrew Sullivan]

I say.

[Kamala Harris]

And the asteroid will not hit her. She will deflect it. And with her superpowers, things will be okay.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Can I make one suggestion?

[Kamala Harris]

What?

[Andrew Sullivan]

Not a vice president named Tim.

[Kamala Harris]

Okay, okay.

[Andrew Sullivan]

You know, enough with a lady and a Tim.

[Kamala Harris]

Okay?

[Andrew Sullivan]

Remember Tim Kaine.

[Kamala Harris]

Tim Kaine.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Okay. Tim Walls.

[Kamala Harris]

Tim Wallace.

[Donna Brazile]

It is interesting how many global women leaders have come from the right. I mean, in Britain's now had three conservative female prime ministers before it had a single labor one. The current Conservative leader is a young black woman called Kemi Badenoch. Right now that's pretty amazing, I think, and it's lovely that no one really makes a big deal out of it. Or look at Merkel as a Democrat.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Interrogative hold of Meir.

[Donna Brazile]

These are hard ass women.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Hard ass women.

[Donna Brazile]

And there's something about that iron lady kind of I'm going to go to war with the whole feminine stick that's kind of really potent in the human psyche.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Well, I think people think that a woman leader has to kind of overcompensate a little towards strength. And people are drawn to strength. Look at Clowney, you know, I mean, look, Trump.

[Donna Brazile]

Oh, sorry.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Really have to spell that out. It's late.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

You left out Shirley Chisholm. She wasn't a nominee. But she ran for president.

[Kamala Harris]

She ran for president. Mexico just elected a female president. We've had female presidents in Africa. It's time, folks. We know how to lead. We can build a peace of everybody.

[Donna Brazile]

Yeah, you just got to.

[Ben Mankiewicz]

It's gonna happen.

[Donna Brazile]

I know, but you can't next time have an actual primary where a woman candidate can prove her worth and not just be stuck in and nominated at the very last minute because you had a dotard running that you wouldn't fess up to. Well, first of all, isn't the DNC responsible for that?

[Kamala Harris]

First of all we won primary.

[Andrew Sullivan]

I don't know, but it doesn't sound just subject.

[Kamala Harris]

Joe and Kamala did win enough delegates. 14 million people participated in it. And we should not disenfranchise those Americans. So.

[Donna Brazile]

But look, it would have been better.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

By the way, if she was on a ticket that got elected to the White House. It's not like she was never voted for.

[Donna Brazile]

But if you want to have a.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Ticket, I just want you to put that out there, that's all.

[Kamala Harris]

She was also a good candidate. You know what? Eight terrible candidates.

[Donna Brazile]

See that now? When are you going to see.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Okay, first of all, there's. There's so many wrongs.

[Kamala Harris]

I put my glasses on and I can still tell you I can see a leader when I see a leader. Boo.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Excuse me.

[Kamala Harris]

Go ahead, Boo.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Go ahead.

[Kamala Harris]

Boo.

[Andrew Sullivan]

There's been so many wrong things said here by everybody. I'd like to correct some of them. She's not a dotard. Shirley Chisholm didn't get anywhere. That's to our point.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Lay some groundwork for others later.

[Andrew Sullivan]

To 107 days was more than enough time. That's a stupid excuse in my view that it wasn't enough time. If anything, our elections should be like Britain and like other countries, they don't need 100 days. She was actually doing fine after the first few months.

[Kamala Harris]

After winning 81 million votes. Donald Trump never conceded the election.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Correct.

[Kamala Harris]

Okay. He continued to lie. He continued to fabricate. Kamala Harris and Joe Biden won the hearts and minds of the American people as well as the Electoral College. Yet they were never given a mandate to do anything.

[Donna Brazile]

But you mean Hillary.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Hillary won.

[Kamala Harris]

No, Hillary.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Hillary won the popular vote. So we actually have elected a woman. It's just that our stupid system, the way we play the game. She didn't get elected. But we can't say that the country and also the votes are now finally all in for this election. Kamala Harris lost by your mustache hair that like this much. It's so close.

[Kamala Harris]

Always.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Right.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

You know, Bill, you said everyone at the table said something false. What did you say that was false?

[Andrew Sullivan]

Nothing as ever. But the other false thing was that she ran a great campaign. She did not run a great campaign. And you're going to keep. You're going to keep. You're going to keep losing. If you, if you insist that she ran a great campaign. I'm saying, look, we.

[Kamala Harris]

There was no model for the campaign that she had to run. Look, On January, on July 21 at 1:41pm When Joe Biden announced that he was not going to. He was going to step down. Kamala Harris had to step up. Now, what other Democrat could have stepped up in that period of time?

[Andrew Sullivan]

We're not arguing about that. All right. We're arguing the campaign she ran. They asked her what she would do differently. She said, I can't think of anything. That's terrible.

[Donna Brazile]

How do we trust a party that was telling us with a stray face that Joe Biden could be president for four more years without any problem whatsoever? That's what the Democrats were telling us. It was a massive lie. We saw through it. Everyone saw through it.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Did you see him this week? Could you imagine if we were just starting on the next term?

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

It's.

[Andrew Sullivan]

That was wonderful.

[Kamala Harris]

Happy birthday, Joe Biden. Happy birthday. Joe Biden turned 82 this week.

[Andrew Sullivan]

All right.

[Kamala Harris]

And Bill, I hope you're still kicking ass at 82.

[Andrew Sullivan]

I will be right here at this.

[Kamala Harris]

Panel, you people specifically right with you, honey.

[Andrew Sullivan]

I hope you will.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

All right.

[Andrew Sullivan]

What does the panel think of Ellen leaving the country? Oh, this I find so fascinating because first Ellen is canceled by the left. I mean, she said, I was kicked out of show business. That wasn't from the right. That was because she had a toxic workplace and all the things that the people have. So then Trump gets. So she's canceled by the left in her country, but then she's leaving the country because the right got elected. I'm just asking about that. I don't. It doesn't completely compute. Right.

[Kamala Harris]

Did she sell her house?

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Do you think she's really gonna leave?

[Andrew Sullivan]

Yes, she's already there.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Where?

[Andrew Sullivan]

And she announces England. Cotswolder England. Yeah, Yeah.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

I don't know.

[Andrew Sullivan]

I don't know.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

I know I've met her mother, and I don't think she would have agreed with that. The mother is very down to earth.

[Donna Brazile]

Her mother, she's always lived in la. Right now she's in the Cotswolds. I give it like four months.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Why is it boring, though?

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

And by the way, you heard Fareed Zakaria report that the GDP per capita of the uk, if it were a state of the United states, would be 51st.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Right.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

And so there's a very big difference between living in the United States and living anywhere else in the world.

[Kamala Harris]

Best of all.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

So I think she's overreacting.

[Andrew Sullivan]

But if you have money, every place is good, right?

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

I don't know. Oh, I'm not crying for you.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Right. What's your speaking fee?

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Probably.

[Kamala Harris]

Yeah.

[Andrew Sullivan]

It's when their normal salary is maybe.

[Kamala Harris]

Still Come back home for the holidays. We don't know.

[Andrew Sullivan]

No, I'm just saying how soon could Elon Musk realistically send humans to Mars? Another good question.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

I have strong views on that. My read of the history of space exploration is such that we do big expensive things only when it's geopolitically expedient, such as we feel threatened by an enemy. And so for him to just say, let's go to Mars, because it's the next thing to do. What does that venture capitalist meeting look like, Elon? What do you want to do? I want to go to Mars. How much will it cost? A trillion dollars. Is it safe? No. People will probably die. What's the return on the investment? Nothing. That's a five minute meeting and it doesn't happen.

[Andrew Sullivan]

So. So we agree. I'm not forgotten.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Okay, wait, wait, wait. We got nothing against Mars. What I'm saying is, here's how we get to Mars. Ready? China leaks a memo doesn't even have to be true. They leaked a memo that they want to put military bases on Mars. Then we're on Mars in 10 months. NASA doesn't have its spacecraft, but Elon does. Here's my spacecraft to Mars. And we end up paying him to use his spaceship to get to Mars. And that'd be easy for China, cuz Mars is already red.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Right.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

So that'd be easy sell. That'd be an easy sell. Okay, that's, that's how. So I don't, I don't see it happening until governments judge that is geopolitically in our interest. Otherwise I don't see it as a, as just an exploration.

[Kamala Harris]

But I believe President elect Trump has some interest in Mars. So we might, you might have another conversation in a couple of months.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

At some point somebody has to pay for it. And just being interested in something is not the same thing as paying for.

[Kamala Harris]

He believes there are people there. I mean, he was. I listened to that podcast with Joe Rogan. Two bottles of wine.

[Andrew Sullivan]

But I just.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Why do his comments, what do you think is alive on Mars matter to you at all?

[Kamala Harris]

Because I was. As President, I was wondering, you can make it happen. I thought maybe that he might escape there for the holidays, you know? You got me stuck on the damn holidays now.

[Andrew Sullivan]

The point is you can't live on Mars. I've said this so many times. How badly would we, how badly would we have to rat fuck Earth?

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Yeah.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Before it was worse than a place that's 200 below zero.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Andrew Sullivan]

With no air, no water, with six months.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Preach it. Preach it. You too. In addition, Eli wants to terraform Mars. And if you do that, you could then just walk off a spaceship and breathe the air. But if that's Earth, plan B. What did you do to Earth that now you gotta go to Mars. If you messed up Earth, but you're good enough to turn Mars into Earth, then you can turn Earth back into Earth and never have to go.

[Ben Mankiewicz]

Mars right here.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Come on. You're going to have that alignment party. I know you. It's going to be like a ditty free coffee. It's going to be. Oh, are you kidding? When they align. So, okay, you guys, what do you think of the fact that the gays and the Jews stuck with the Democrats? Gays voted for Kamala 84% and Jews 79%. It's interesting because there was so much talk about defection from those groups, and they came home. Those two groups came home to the Democrats.

[Donna Brazile]

Well, we don't really know how gays voted.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Well, they said 84%.

[Donna Brazile]

No, that's how GLBTQIA plus people voted. So that includes a whole bunch. The vast majority, 40% of that are bisexual women, many of whom are in relationships with straight guys. So we don't know. I'm sure it was a big majority. I'm not sure including a big bunch of young women in that will distort it somewhat. I wish we could have polling of gay men and lesbians. Why can't we? Why are we now forced into this bleh of all.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

But if we don't have polling of them, how do you present those statistics of who bisexual women sleep with? How do you even know that if you're saying we don't have polls?

[Donna Brazile]

Well, they said they were bisexual, many of whom are in straight relationships, because you actually had polling of.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Oh, you did have polling. Okay, you said there wasn't polling. I was just trying to understand.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Yes, there's a lot of polling in the.

[Kamala Harris]

We'll take it.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

We'll take it.

[Andrew Sullivan]

It's a gift. It's a gift. Come on. All right, let's. We have a party to get to.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Can I make.

[Andrew Sullivan]

You can make all the points you want.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Thank you. I've come to recognize that the human brain is not wired for thinking statistically or probabilistically about anything. And then I looked at the history of math. Do you realize the first time anyone took an average of numbers and figured out that that was a good idea was after calculus had been invented? So that tells me that it is not natural to think that way anyway. And there are entire industries that have risen up to exploit that fact. And they're called casinos because people say, yeah, it's due. Yeah, no, it's not.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Do.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

You don't understand probability and statistics? But again, so in that. In that. So that means we're incapable as a species of truly understanding risk. That. And this goes to, like, vaccines. Okay, I don't want to like poke the bear here, but. But, but what I'm saying is the.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Bear believes in vaccines. Just being skeptical of all medical interventions, as everyone should.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Well, except. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. Except. Except 99 out of 100 medical interventions, you're not. I need a second opinion. If you have tuberculosis, you don't need a second opinion. If you have.

[Andrew Sullivan]

It's not close to 99%.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

It's easily 99%. If you break a femur, you don't get a second opinion.

[Andrew Sullivan]

On that, I agree, but that's not. Most things that happen to people. Lots of things that happen to people. And I'm thrilled that you don't ever have this happen in your life, and I hope you never do. But trust me, most people at a certain point in their life will need a second opinion.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

The second opinion. Yes, but that's. After you've been through 99 other. I'm trying to put credit back to doctors where our life expectancy is three times what it was 150 years ago and everyone before 150 years ago, but.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Lower than the rest of the organic.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

And half of them died before they were 35. Science matters.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Of course it does, but it does.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Sometimes you don't sound that way. That's what worries me.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Well, you know, actually. Actually, you're the guy. You're the guy who doesn't understand why the NBA team can't beat the Lakers. So I don't know. You know, you're supposed to be. You're supposed to be. You're supposed to be the scientist and you couldn't even admit that.

[Donna Brazile]

But.

[Andrew Sullivan]

And as far as medicine goes, I could talk to you this about all day, but again, we do have a party to get to. But, you know, this is not your field. You're not a doctor.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

No, but I'm a scientist. Excuse me.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Yeah, that's not a doctor. That's not a doctor.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

No, no, hold on.

[Andrew Sullivan]

It's not a doctor.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

I'm a scientist.

[Andrew Sullivan]

You know what?

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Probability statistics.

[Andrew Sullivan]

When I get a goiter on Uranus, I'll call you.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

No, don't call me. But when it's time to assess risk. That's something that comes out of the world of probability statistics, and scientists are trained in that. So there's a documentary on PBS.org right now that talks about what it means to accept a risk or to, like, get a vaccine. If you don't want to get a vaccine, that's like walking around with a baseball bat, that's fine. But if you hit someone with it, that's bad. There's a social contract to not infect other people. He's into this.

[Kamala Harris]

Thanks moment. I'm ready to drink wine.

[Andrew Sullivan]

Thank you, everybody.

[Neil Degrasse Tyson]

Catch all new episodes of Real Time with Bill Maher every Friday night at 10 or watch him anytime on HBO on Demand. For more information, log on to hbo.com.

[Ben Mankiewicz]

Hi, I'm Ben Mankiewicz, and this is my podcast, Talking Pictures.

[Kamala Harris]

Can you ask me all the Super 8 questions? Of course, because they're so fun.

[Ben Mankiewicz]

This season, I'm talking to the people who make us laugh. Who knew you were funny?

[Andrew Sullivan]

I knew I was funny.

[Ben Mankiewicz]

From turn to classic movies and the streaming service Max, this is Talking Pictures, a podcast about movies, about memories and all the life that happens in between.

[Andrew Sullivan]

How many Variety is a man's game. It's not for you gals.

[Kamala Harris]

We have this sitcom we'd love you.

[Andrew Sullivan]

To do called here's Agnes.

[Ben Mankiewicz]

Listen to Talking Pictures on Max or wherever you get your podcasts.