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$7,000 gold? $300 silver? ‘Crazy’ forecasts are suddenly making sense
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Foreign.
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Welcome to the Real Money Show. My name is Jeremy Wiseman. I'm joined here by Jerry Coraya, who's just finishing off some text messages. Jerry, we've got so much to cover. I think it took longer to figure out what we're, how we're going to figure out what we're going to talk about today because there's too much to cover. But I wanted to start with where we are in the silver market right now because speaking to a lot of people who are thinking about getting involved in the market and what they've seen over the last year, as you know, we're recording today on Thursday, February 26th. But in the last year, silver's up 176 year over year percent. Gold's up 80% year over year. And what a lot of people look at is they say, oh, it's gone up a lot.
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Time to take profit, whatever it is.
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Why should I get in? It's gone up a lot. You know, just the, the observation that it's gone up a lot. And I find myself having a lot of conversations with people discussing that in the context of the last 50 years where silver was managed. And we're going to get into the end of monetization in the world and its effect on the precious metals market, especially when it comes to the demand from the US Side. Especially. But it's been, as Michael Oliver, you know, an analyst that we follow a lot. It's been in a box for 50 years. Yeah. And so it's out of the box. But we haven't hit price discovery mode yet.
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No, no.
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No one understands what the price of the metal is or what it should be. And just before we went on air, we were talking about they're trying to measure it in fiat currency when it's actually gold and silver. Are the measuring sticks wrong measuring. So we're not even at the paradigm shift yet of understanding the value of anything. Of course, even if you were to talk to a lot of Canadians, what's
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the value of the Canadian dollar?
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I don't know, 135 against the U.S. it's. What's that worth? I don't know. It's two ships in the night tied to each other. We have no idea where we are. We're just connected somehow.
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And the barometer is broken, the compass is broken. The inflation data that we get here in Canada, CPI reads two and a half. The US read two and a half. But if we go to using real world math of calc, calculating CPI from the 1970s according to the bank of Canada Museum. The average rate of inflation was 8% in the 70s. Imagine that, 8%. And then they magically, or I should say they did some alchemy, they took some substitute some products out of the CPI baskets to artificially get that number down to 2%.
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But where did that, that artificiality come from? From financialization. Which is ending.
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That is ending.
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So again you're back to well, what is the real price of things? And so you have to look at the fundamentals and you understand that you don't have a specific price yet. No. Right. You have gauges of where we think we're going and there's new information that we didn't have several years ago in the market as well. But if you think about silver, for instance, sixth year of deficit, the demand coming out of industry, the end of financialization and the deleveraging of the market. This is basically themes we're going to talk about today. You start to realize, oh, we have a long way to go before people even start to understand what is the true value of silver. There was a post on, on X a few weeks ago talking about throughout the history of time, um, a, a well bred cow cost some, you know, 5 ounces of silver. Today it costs 70 or 80. Right, right. Again the measuring sticks. So I think over time people are going to realize that it actually is still very much undervalued here, which I think is a good segue to move into forecasts. And then we'll talk about the background and, and the, the happenings in the market that show why these forecasts are, are bang on.
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Right. I think it' another compass to understand where we are in this market. Of course we're going to ask ourselves, Jerry, I haven't bought precious metals yet, but I'm interested. This is all the, what's all the hoopla about? Should I be getting into this market? Absolutely. It's about converting out of your fiat currencies, valuing your wealth in ounces, which is what the smart money is doing. Not just central banks which need the liquidity and independence creating a, a emote around their wealth away from decoupling from currencies, decoupling from digital banking systems that can be frozen or hacked. But we have to follow the trends. We follow the trends with smart money. We look at the information from Michael Oliver using his momentum structural analysis. So we follow him forecast anywhere from within the next 12 months. We're going to go through some, some majority right now. Gold, gold forecast, Jeremy. And then we can do the Math. I'll, I'll have my calculator ready. Okay. By Michael Oliver sees 2 to $600 within silver price within the next 12 months. Then we have Goldman Sachs pricing in $707,000 US per ounce for gold by the end of the year. HSBC 7000 moving on up to bank of America 7000 higher for John Ng and Correlation Economics $8,000. We have Wisdom Tree pricing gold at 9,000 US per ounce. We have World bank at 9,500 US by the year end. And then we have ING 10,000 US and ABM AMRO at US$10,000. And what is, you know, these are just forecasts highlighting the remonetization of precious metals. They even cite de dollarization and the trend of moving into physical things, you know, building out the physical space and the, the convergence of gold, which is, which was once just monetary converging into tech space and then vice versa. You have silver that's been notoriously known for just industry electronics, solar, data center, AI Build out. Huge news this week by the way. But silver is also getting back into, you know, the banking industry remonetization of gold and silver heading back into the banking system, going into technical, no technical markets. So these are the new fundamentals that are at play. The old fundamentals remain. Nothing has changed as far as the fundamentals. The price, paper price may whipsaw, but the fundamentals have not changed. In fact, we have four new fundamentals at play. So we're. Well, let's.
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B
So, okay, before we move on to the fundamentals. Yeah, you said $7,000 gold by the end of the year. If, if we were to go from right now, I think we got back to a 60 to 1 ratio, silver to gold. If we were to come down to 40 to 1, which as the markets rise that ratio shrinks at 40 to 1. That would bring silver to 175 at 30 to 1. So again, gold at 7,000 by year end at 30 to 1. That puts gold silver in the $233 range. You mentioned a couple forecasts there at 10,000. Yeah, 40 to 1 ratio would put us at 250. That's by the way is pretty easy. Math divided by four and then 30 to one would put us at $330 an ounce. So some of these crazy forecasts on silver actually don't start to. They seem not so crazy once you put it into that perspective and how quickly it could rise. It's funny talking with some clients this week who their, their accounts, you know, have gone up for, you know, you know, 300, 400%. And they've moved from. I was just looking at one today, client, you know, 250,000. The accounts were 700, 650. Now congratulations, a 35 increase will double his money. Again.
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Amazing.
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250, good for him. And so you just see how the bigger it gets, the easier it gets. Right. And this goes to what Jim Rickards was talking about in terms of how gold could get to 10,000, that each thousand dollar move up from here becomes a smaller move. So if you're buying it now, you're getting the advantage of that by buying in early.
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Yes, absolutely. We're going to be looking, folks, we're going to be looking back a year from now looking at all of these forecasts. These are just cycles that we're talking about, technical cycles, momentum cycles. And I'm going to share, I shared an image earlier. This is the three cycles of gold and silver. We are technically in the third cycle of gold. The first cycle began from 1970 to 1980, 10 years and then 2000 to 2010, another 10 years. And then third cycle began in 2016, 2016, when gold hit a low of 1050. So okay, so it's a 10 year cycle. So somewhere around 20, 26. Oh, that's this year. Okay, we should see something like the first two cycles. Now what did the first two cycles do for gold from low to high in that 10 year cycle? 14, 70% from low to high and 2200 percent for silver. That would put gold at the end of this year according to Jim rickard cycle, the third cycles, 14,700 US per ounce. We will be looking back a year from now and you are going to be so thrilled and excited that you followed your gut, you listened to us, you followed the smart money and you were critically thinking about what's going on in this world, filtering through all the noise and this information. But this is real money and real money moving back into real things, becoming relevant once again. And honestly, the future is precious and it revolves around and involves precious metals.
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And at Guild hall, we only deal in physical metal. So you can give us a call and we'll show you how to get involved in the physical metal market. Whether you're buying it direct, using our E store, doing it over the phone. And then as well, we also offer physical gold and silver in registered accounts where it's fully allocated, segregated. And what that means is that you're going to end up with physical gold and silver held in a Brinks facility in your Own sub account with the listing of your serial numbers held outside the banking system, but as part of your retirement fund. And obviously, you know, when you're thinking about registered accounts, Jerry, as well, the game of RRSPs, deferring the your income. So you're not paying those taxes today, you'll pay them later. Keep your money, make it stay and play with you. And then gold and silver over the last 20 years. Actually gold. Yesterday I looked at it, in the last 20 years, it was up 999.9%. Wow. Imagine having something like that in an RSP portfolio that is hedging the devaluation of the currency. And when you see the way a government just spends money, sends $2 billion overseas, that's your money. Right. When they're paying for others to stay, it's all your money. Right. These aren't government funded. It's your funded. You have funded it. And so how do you protect against that? And so I believe strongly in the rsp especially because we've seen how well it's worked for clients. And some people complain, oh, pay the taxes at the end. Yeah, well, I'd rather pay taxes having made the money. You know, it's a lot easier to pay the taxes if you're up 800,500% than, than if you didn't do anything at all.
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Yeah.
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And I think most people, if they look at, well, what did you do? Did you save money? Did you put it away? Instead of. You can't. You, you gave, you're saving with after tax dollars as opposed to saving with your own. Right, right. With your, with your tax dollars.
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And in fiat currency, something denominated. A fiat currency that's dropping at least 13% every single year. So we're in a war. You have to protect yourself, especially with this government that, you know, we're seeing job losses, job losses today, importing oil, things that just don't make sense. We have another $2 billion going to Ukraine. You know, the manufacturing base here in Canada just leaving, it's dropped 3%. We're on the outside looking in, into the US where things are, deals are being made, things are happening. Movers and shakers. You know, this is just a phenomenal time to keep an eye on the precious metals sector because this is the relevant part that's, that's driving the world market.
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So, so let's talk about that. There's been, you know, we've talked about some forecasts, why we think the RSPs are great. Lastly, one little thing before we get on to the world thing because you did a good segue there on where we're headed with this is why physical over paper. And you know, oftentimes we've talked about the idea of no counterparty risk. Right. They can't, they can't be taken from you. When the chips are down, you take delivery of it. Right. These sorts of things. But I actually think, I've been thinking about this recently. I think more importantly what it prevents is that because there's a barrier to entry, because you actually have to pay to buy the real thing, it makes you a long term holder. It's like a property. Right. You don't day trade your house. So with precious metals, if you buy paper investments, that's an investment in the paper exposure to the market as opposed to ownership. It's a lot easier to fall prey to. The fear trade, of course. Right. The greed trade and the fear trade. But if you own it outright, you ride through it because the cost to sell, the cost to buy it back, you just go, nope, the reason I bought it is clear for the long term. I'm a long term holder. You can have your emotions with the ups and downs of the market, but you ride through them.
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Yes.
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So when you see people who have held for a long time, you just see the big results as opposed to trying to swing in and out of the market. Of course.
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Absolutely. It's about understanding and knowing your why of why. Physical precious metals, you want to decouple your wealth from all the financial madness that is going on, the currency devaluation. Position yourself with what's coming. The growth of some supply and demand factors that are just shining for silver, especially silver. Today. Silver is scarce. Gold is not as scarce as, as, as silver. But these are monetary metals. We have had a monetary problem, a currency issue for decades. This is why precious metals, the, the word precious connotates that they are monetary metals. So you want to have something relevant for your portfolio.
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Yeah, it's not really precious if you, you know, you got parking tickets that are more than the cost of silver right now.
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Right, exactly. So. Exactly. But you got to have skin in the game, you know, you know, you, you bought something, it costs a little bit more to buy. The physical, the fabrication and the supply and demand factors. And then you even had to lug that, those silver bars into your car. You, you put some labor, blood, sweat and tears into bringing that into your house, wherever you, wherever you and dug a hole to put that in the ground. So you're not, it's not a day Trade. And that's the problem with the paper. The paper is just a derivative. And that is the problem with all of the froth is the frothy markets, the excesses. This is the financialization that has ballooned and that's being called for a reset and backing up the system to prepare for that reset and going back to an equilibrium, to a ratio.
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Okay, so let's talk about examples of resets.
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Okay.
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I didn't even know about it. I didn't know about it. You just mentioned it to me before we jumped on air and you said the, the mainstream hasn't talked about it. What is this? US India summit?
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Okay, I'm gonna do a lot of reading because Vince Lancy broke the news. It was not in the, in the media for the last few days, but the last, this past week there was the US India Summit and it was all about AI and building that out. You have. It was a shift. It, it signaled a shift away from the US's, the way that the US has competed over the last, you know, few decades since the Cold War. It was all about maintaining the world's reserve currency, currency devaluations, manipulation with the
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euro dollar, with the strong dollar policy.
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Yes.
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Do you know who the architect of the strong dollar policy was?
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Is that Larry Summers?
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Larry Summers, the, the man who just had to step down from, from Harvard?
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Yes. Yeah, he was on the list. Interesting times. Yeah, but yeah, the, the, the method of control and hegemony was we got to maintain the US dollar, we have to maintain the Kissinger, you know, the petrodollar. But this is a shift we're seeing. That policy is losing control now as we see China, the de dollarization, the BRICs moving away from the US dollar dominance, they're not, they're not trusting it as much, but they're financing ports, they're power grids, telecoms, and they're now building out AI. This is India, this is a China, China, China putting this is a big threat against the US dollar.
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Got it.
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In response now the US dollar, the US is now building the AI, the, the project vault calling silver a critical mineral. The US has been activated. They're funding massive AI compute supporting minerals and sovereign data infrastructure to influence the new supply chain rails which the 21st century trade, the future of payments and innovation will run. Canada, unfortunately as we know, is Left out. The US's effort to preserve the dollar alignment through deployment and partnership. As globalization guys gives way, the globalization efforts is failing and to me it has failed already to a more regionally Negotiated economic order not Carney's dream of a new world order. Sorry about that. This is about saving the dollar. How the US in this summit is pairing money with real infrastructure. The goal control, payment, compute and supply chain rails is a strategy shift reinforce dollars in the relevancy through deployment not just financial integration or manipulation like the yen carry trade Financing the world's bubbles by keeping your interest rates low. That's, that's done the message the US dollar is no longer assuming countries will stay in dollar aligned automatically it's building the alignment. So we're moving from monetary gravity to physical presence in this, in this through China's belt and row approach it's bundling financing with turnkey physical deployment. We're moving from financials Jeremy, in summary over to physical build outs re industrialization and you need the physical silver, you need the relevancy of all that. And this is where according to Vince Lancy this is coming Gold fix where money becomes infrastructure. This is key. What has also changed is the character of money itself. Monetary systems are becoming more infrastructural and programmable and less on legacy dollar pipes between blockchain pilots, regional payment systems, tokenized deposits Enbridge bricks successor with commodity link settlement and bilateral trade clearing including India settling portions of energy trade Outside the SWIFT system banks emerging markets now possessed options that were less viable in prior decades. They're now included Jeremy. This development weakens the earlier posture in which financial integration alone provided alignment. So this is a move away from the financials that Britain, the British imperial banking system had they created financials and JP Morgan's talking about this now giving forecast of 8 to 9300. If the US were to peg gold to its US dollars gold will need to be 9300. The very bank who's JP JP Morgan himself said gold is money and everything else is credit. That's correct. Everything else is a derivative. Everything else is just a promise to pay. Gold is the money. Gold is money and collateral and it's moving things.
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I think it's interesting that so, so it sounds like these are things that, that came out as part of US policy at this summit but it's interesting. I saw on X a couple of days ago through Reuters that India is no longer going to use the LBMA as a source for pricing their silver. So they don't trust that system. I think in this context that seems like a pretty good signal.
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Yeah, it's right here. So India markets regulator changes gold silver valuation for mutual funds so it wants a better price. It Wants a credible pricing. They have the silver, they have the gold. London doesn't have it, so they're shifting. Well, let's talk about that.
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Yeah, let's talk about that. You just mentioned London. So about this time last year, we were under the narrative of the tariffs because I think that's apropos this week. And the idea was, well, because of these tariffs, there's all this draw of the physical product from the LVMA to the US which it hasn't gone back. In fact, the physical demand of silver off the exchanges has just been consistent and beyond comprehension. Even this month alone, billions of dollars has been taken off of the, off of the exchanges of physical. And we don't know who's doing it and we don't know where they're putting it. I can put my conspiracy hat on and say, well, if the US has put it on the critical mineral list and they've signaled that they want a stockpile and they brought all this product in from, from Europe, from the lbma and now it's being pulled off the exchanges, I'm thinking West Point because that's where the, the metal silver was originally held for the Manhattan Project.
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Wow.
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So that's, that's my, that's a shiny. I'm throwing it out there. We'll see, we'll see what it says. But then there's also, there's also Jane street has entered the picture. Do you want to talk to us quickly about Jane Street?
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Well, they just became. Who's. Who is Jane Street? They're a quantitative financial firm and they just bought yesterday an immense amount, the most amount of SLV shares. Just in time, over 3%, just in time for a major delivery. So it kicked the can get down the road for these, the cme, what happened so they don't have to deliver. It's all about deliveries. And this just before yesterday's news on Jane street, this happened. So you had the CME Group, which is the, the Commodities Metals Exchange or Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which is halting for the second time within through two months. This is a joke. This is no glitch. But this is what we call an empire of glitches. You know, this is just turn off the, turn off the switch. We can't deliver.
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It's because they had more deliveries than they had metal. So they had to shut it down and do a bunch of backdoor deals and figure out how am I going to push this guy out, how am I going to cancel this one, how am I going to cash out this one on the side. And the last time it happened, the
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last time the comics metal went down, Silver went on a multi month rumble. It just happened again, guys. Technical, technical glitches, cooling issues, whatever the case may who knows what their stated reasons are. But medals is offline. Was offline. It's back online. They did some shenanigans, but this is a desperate move for those who are losing control. And you get control. He who has the gold or silver makes the rules. And if you have the physical, you need not worry. Anytime you see price dips happen over the last three, two other super cycles in silver, please remember, don't be alarmed when you see a pullback. It did have two or three 30% pullbacks to ultimately excel to 2,200% for silver and 1,400% for gold.
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Who do you think Jane street is buying for? Is it for themselves or do you think they're buying for someone else?
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Well, they have been in news before. I think Trump media called them out before for manipulating the markets. I think one of the same. We could be seeing Kayfabe once again. It looks like their opposition, but they're moving in the same direction of moving away from, you know, moving away from the paper shenanigans and price slammings and manipulations, exposing it and then fixing it. So we're going to watch this trend as it plays. It's moving really quickly. All these forecasts are happening within the year. This is not a long term thing. This, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity that's within 12 months, guys. So we want you to, you know, really look and perceive what's going on and give us a call and find out how you can roll out that rsp. We can work for you to move the funds laterally over from one institution over to the institution that we work with. We were the pioneers to put the physical precious metals within RSPs so you don't have to pay the tax. But, but no, you don't want to hold the gold and silver in a bank. It just defeats the whole purpose. You want to hold it outside of the banking system, which is what we do. We handle everything for you, providing the bar numbers. This is all about segregated allocated title ownership. If you can hold it, you do not own it. And that's what we provide. Jeremy was the architect behind this, so he's the man to thank. But you want to deal with Guildhall. We've been doing this for over 20 years now. Yeah, it's just, it's just getting started.
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B
Yeah. And I, I I disagree. I don't think it's just a 12 month thing because I think holding the metals is, is a long term thing, but I think in terms of, in terms of having to prune the portfolio and make changes and pivot later on, I think it's important to have the physical, you know, I look at gold and silver as the, as the base of a portfolio. A lot of people wait until there's trouble and then they decide to get insurance. But you can't, you can't buy insurance after the fire. You have to get it before. You've got to be prepared. Whether you're blue sky or gray sky, I think they're both leading in the same direction. I know Ray Dalio is kind of a gray sky or the world order is breaking up and there's going to be lots of upheaval and you should own gold in your portfolio. He's talking at least 10 to 15%. So I think that. And then we're talking blue sky because we're, we're looking at silver and we're saying all the industry that's going to be built and we're looking at gold saying it's going to be revalued. There's no, there's no ifs, ands or buts. There's a reset that's going to happen and you might get to a stage where gold goes up, silver goes up and they plateau. It's not the same paradigm of a market that's been controlled where it goes up and falls back down right there.
- [27:27]
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That pullback in this case, when we were talking about the remonetization of gold and silver back to the monetary system, it's the back debts, whether it's the M1 or M2 money supply, if it's including, if you're also including debt. JP Morgan's call just backed US currency in circulation at $9,300 gold price that is pegging. So if you peg it at a certain percentage and just remember back in, during the back by World War, was it World War II, 20% of the debt had to be, had to be gold. If we do the math today, that would put gold at around $47,000 per ounce. So it depends on what the US, what the world wants to peg to and you can't just raise it to that peg and there could then take
- [28:17]
B
it back and there could be deflation.
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I think you will see deflation any, any type of market or asset class that has been ballooned because of the excess and the froth and the yen carry trade and just easy money excesses has to go back to the means any. And we know one thing is for sure, gold and silver are not in a bubble territory. You cannot bubble up gold and so you can bubble the derivatives mark which is meant to blow up.
- [28:39]
B
How can you say it's in a, it's in a bubble if the physical metal is still very difficult to get right? If you're in a six year deficit in the, in the, in the market, it's hard to say it's in a bubble and you haven't even seen the industry really start to take off and have the visible evidence of it yet in the States. Although I think I truly believe that that's coming. Yeah, you can, I've seen it, seen what they're, what they've been doing in the factories that they've been building and just knowing things like, you know, all the copper wires are often silver plated before they go into the tubes and into the, into the rubber and everything like that. So I think the demand on it is just going to be extreme for silver. It's not going to let up.
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This is just the beginning, this is
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just, it just got out of the box and it's going to start running before anyone starts to understand what the actual value of the metal is.
- [29:30]
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Absolutely. Remember it's all about setting up that building that foundation. As Jeremy mentioned that extras pyramid is inverted pyramid. Gold and silver are your power money. Gold and silver will insulate you from the mechanical failures of the market. The paper risks of every single market, the excesses, the currency devaluation and risk and any drops that you see in the market, it's outside of that. But you're also positioning for what's to come. The growth, the build out, the wealth that will be built off of this. The future is precious and the future revolves and involves physical precious metals. And we'll love to have you on board so give us a call.
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B
And that does it for another episode of the Real Money Show. We thank you so much for joining us and we can't wait to speak to you soon here on the Real Money Show.
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A
Satisfaction.