Rebel News Podcast: "Will the people’s revolution bring down Iran’s Ayatollahs?"

Host: Ezra Levant | Guest: Dr. Daniel Pipes (Middle East Forum)

Date: January 13, 2026
Link to Podcast

Episode Overview

This episode features a wide-ranging discussion between Ezra Levant and Dr. Daniel Pipes on the rapidly unfolding protests in Iran, the potential downfall of the Islamic Republic’s clerical regime, and how US policy (under Donald Trump) might influence the outcome. Additional discussion explores how Western attitudes towards immigration, freedom of speech, rising anti-Western sentiment, and broader Middle Eastern dynamics intersect with these upheavals.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Anti-Americanism & Celebrity Culture

• Ezra Levant opens with commentary on Swedish pop star Zara Larsson’s public criticisms of US immigration enforcement (ICE) and her apparent hypocrisy in seeking a US visa for an upcoming tour.

• Ezra argues that America’s openness to criticism from foreigners is often unreciprocated and considers whether the US should tolerate such anti-American rhetoric from visiting celebrities.

  “Foreigners may have that freedom of speech too, but they don't have the right to enter the United States to express it.” (Ezra Levant, 05:36)

• He muses provocatively about whether ICE should use Larsson’s concerts to round up lawbreakers, raising the question of how open Western societies ought to be to those who despise their values.

2. The “Lion” Metaphor for American Power

• Ezra plays a famous Christopher Walken movie monologue as an analogy for the US: a mighty lion enduring constant provocations until finally lashing out.

  “Till one day, that lion gets up and tears the shit out of everybody… Because every once in a while, the lion has to show the jackals who he is.” (Christopher Walken, 07:07)

• He likens current US policy under Trump to this lion "showing who he is," suggesting a growing impatience with being taken for granted or insulted.

3. Contrast Between Western Protests: Iran vs. Gaza

• Ezra observes a striking difference: huge Western protests in support of Hamas during Gaza wars vs. the relative quiet regarding the current Iranian uprising.

  “Very little support from elite society, very little support from the left. It's a fascinating contrast.” (Ezra Levant, 10:45)

• This leads into his interview with Dr. Daniel Pipes about the state of play within Iran and broader regional dynamics.

4. Interview with Dr. Daniel Pipes

Status Update on Iran’s Protests and Regime Stability

• Dr. Pipes notes unprecedented regime vulnerability:

  “It looks like the Islamic Republic of Iran is about to fall. I think the chances are well over 50%.” (Dr. Daniel Pipes, 13:07)

• The regime is deploying harsh tactics (internet and power blackouts, escalating violence), but economic grievances—particularly water shortages—are radicalizing ordinary people.

  “Water is in short supply... This will drive people onto the streets. This will drive people to say, down with the dictator, down with Khamenei.” (Dr. Daniel Pipes, 13:32)

US Policy: Learning from Venezuela?

• Discussion of Trump’s recent “shock and awe” raid in Venezuela, where US special forces enacted regime change in 2 hours without occupation—a model contrasted with past US nation-building failures.

  “What Trump did in Venezuela was invent something new, startling.” (Dr. Daniel Pipes, 18:08)

• Will Trump apply this to Iran? Dr. Pipes is uncertain, citing vague signals in Trump’s communications.

Internal Iranian Regime Turmoil

• Reports of possible escape plans for Supreme Leader Khamenei, speculation about regime in-fighting and whether the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) might depose their own leaders.

• Surprisingly, streets chants call for the return of the Shah’s son, a dramatic reversal from the revolutionary fervour of 1979.

  “How much more humiliating can it get...to have the population which once rose up against the Shah, now calling for the Shah’s son to take the place of the Islamic Republic?” (Dr. Daniel Pipes, 16:29)

US “Amateurs” vs. “Experts” in Foreign Policy

• Ezra and Dr. Pipes debate the wisdom of having “amateurs” (like real estate mogul Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner) advising Trump, rather than DC’s professional “Iran hands.”

  “There's a long American tradition...of looking to amateurs as being more capable than experts… I am nervous.” (Dr. Daniel Pipes, 31:47)

The Religious Climate in Iran

• Mosques are reportedly being torched by protestors; public religiosity has sharply declined after decades of theocracy.

  “There's no better way to destroy your faith than by making it the ruling authority. Doesn't work.” (Dr. Daniel Pipes, 24:58)

Potential Regional/Geopolitical Aftershocks

• While the fall of the Islamic Republic would be revolutionary in the Middle East and for global Islamism, Dr. Pipes is less optimistic that it would curb anti-Western protests, Islamism, or antisemitism in the West itself, noting other state actors (Qatar, Turkey, Malaysia, Pakistan) also contribute to such trends.

  “I don't think Iran is terribly important in our context… Iran is just one of many [troublemakers] here in the West. It is, however, very, very important… in the Middle East and the broader majority countries.” (Dr. Daniel Pipes, 27:30)

Ethnic and National Disintegration Scenario

• Dr. Pipes warns Iran is a “land empire,” with only about half its population Persian/Shiite and the remainder a mix of ethnic minorities with historic grievances.

  “Should there be a chaotic situation following, I can well imagine that Kurds, Azeris, Baluch and others will say we want out… I worry about the chaos and even the potential civil war.” (Dr. Daniel Pipes, 29:04)

US Influence & Possibility of Peace with Israel

• The hosts ponder if a post-clerical Iran could join the Abraham/Cyrus Accords and rekindle relations with Israel, but Dr. Pipes cautions that everything hinges on whether post-revolution Iran is stable or collapses into anarchy.

Notable Quotes

• Dr. Pipes: “The collapse of [Iran’s] regime will end that period. And this will have many ramifications, both practical and ideological, in Muslim majority countries.” (26:43)
• Ezra Levant: “America seems to be sick of having people take it for granted and taking liberties, like telling your 9.8 million followers on Instagram that you effing hate them. Oh, but can I please now do a concert tour in your country, which is a privilege.” (08:08)
• Dr. Pipes: “There's a general sense: if this is Islam, what the government is purveying, I don't want it.” (24:27)
• Dr. Pipes (on Iran’s future): “If I pressed you…how soon would you give the regime?”
  “January.” (33:16)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment & Highlights | |-----------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:54 | Dr. Pipes introduced; interview begins | | 04:00 | Ezra’s take on Zara Larsson and anti-American rhetoric | | 06:47 | Christopher Walken “lion” analogy | | 10:45 | Observation: Western protests for Gaza vs. Iran | | 12:32 | Dr. Pipes: “Status report” and regime vulnerability analysis | | 15:23 | Discussion: What does Iran’s leadership think (maduro raid, Israeli ops)? | | 17:57 | Trump’s new model for regime change (“Venezuela approach”) | | 21:56 | Debate: Is the Shah’s son a viable leader for Iran? | | 24:16 | Secularization and hollowing out of religion in Iran | | 26:30 | Would regime change in Iran reduce anti-Israel or anti-Western agitation? | | 28:22 | Could Iran normalize with Israel post-revolution? | | 29:04 | Ethnic/imperial structure of Iran—risk of disintegration, civil war | | 30:58 | Trump’s advisors—Iran policy led by “amateurs” | | 33:16 | Dr. Pipes predicts regime could fall “by January” |

Memorable Moments

• The invocation of Christopher Walken’s “lion” metaphor sets the episode’s tone—America’s patience with its detractors is wearing thin.
• Dr. Pipes’ unexpectedly high estimate—“well over 50%” chance the Ayatollahs will fall, possibly within weeks—is a striking statement (13:07, 33:16).
• Direct address of the hollowness of religion in Iran after decades of theocracy—and the risk of the regime’s collapse giving rise to ethnic fragmentation and chaos (24:16, 29:04).

Conclusion

This episode offers a timely, candid analysis of Iran’s protest movement and the possible end of its clerical regime, placing events in a broader context of global power politics and ideological shifts. While Dr. Pipes is cautiously optimistic about the revolution’s prospects, he underlines the uncertainty and potential for regional chaos. The discussion is also grounded in skepticism about the future of anti-Western sentiment, even if regime change is achieved.

For listeners interested in Middle East policy, US foreign interventions, or the future of Iran and the Islamic world, this episode serves as a rich, thought-provoking resource.