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Gold's March MADNESS: The quiet collapse behind today’s markets | SPONSOR
00:30:12
Jeremy Wiseman and Jerry Correia reveal what’s really driving gold and silver today, explore the three phases of a monetary reset, and show why this market shift could redefine the financial system.
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Transcript60 lines
- [00:00]
A
Welcome to the Real Money Show. My name is Jeremy Wiseman. I'm joined by Jerry Coraya. And you know, Jerry, they say that history doesn't repeat. It rhymes. And given what's happening in the markets today, and especially what's going on in the precious metals markets today, I thought let's talk about where we were in 1980 versus where we are right now, 2026. So in 1980, January 1980, the price of silver was headed up to $50 an ounce. Gold was headed up to $850 an ounce. Because you had the Iran hostage situation, you had oil issues and you had inflation in the 70s. And obviously it ended up with the Iranian regime. That's. We'll talk about where we are. And they raised interest rates to I think over 18%, 18% plus. And they got a handle on inflation by. Also my understanding is that they increased oil refining capacity, specifically in the Gulf. And so then silver comes back down to $3. For a couple decades,
- [01:16]
B
a lot of things happen.
- [01:17]
A
And so silver was going up, but today with everything that's going on, it's going down. So talk to us about why is silver and gold going down right now when they should be doing the opposite.
- [01:30]
B
So we just went through a couple of rate rate meetings. Bank of Canada held rates. Their hands are tied. US the same thing. Their hands are tied because. So rising oil due to war and due to uprising. Geopolitical issues is inflationary. Therefore, the Federal Reserve and its central banks need to look like they're doing the job because their job is. It's a dual mandate. Remember that they have to maintain the jobs and they have to keep the dollar strong. They're failing at both. But they have to make it look like they're doing. It's a per. So they can't raise. They cannot cut interest rates just yet. Even though everyone is begging for liquidity, begging for lower rates. We need to juice the markets. We need stimulus again, please. But the rates are on hold. Higher for longer. From a trader's perspective, currency trading perspective, higher rates means higher dollar index. And gold and silver are inversely correlated to the US dollar. So all of this we. What we're seeing is a weakening in the gold and silver because of an algorithm being trade that sort of program. Is it archaic? I believe so. Okay. But we have to remember that when this happens, gold and silver, physical gold and silver being sold off is not happening. These are the contracts that are being sold off. Physical gold and silver are not being sold, especially silver, since it is a critical Mineral. The US has to hoard their critical minerals as much as possible. They need to buy, they're not allowed to sell and dump silver on the market. So we're seeing here nothing has changed fundamentally with the precious metal space. But what is changing, I think it's behind the scenes and it goes into the geopolitics of oil and what has been given, you know, what has given the US dollar credibility since the the 70s when they broke the gold, suspended the gold standard, they went to that petrodollar and in order to keep that dollar credible, you need to keep oil, you know, going. And how do you keep oil going? You keep it relevant. With a lot of wars and endless wars in that region, I think there is a shift away from the petrodollar being, being the backing or the collateral that backs US dollars. And I think we're going into a gold paradigm shift that is in my opinion, in many people's opinion, the way to go. Jeremy, the real collateral.
- [03:49]
A
Well, you. There's a lot to unpack there with what you, with what you were saying. But at the top you were saying the reason why gold and silver are going down is because they kept interest rates higher and that means the dollar stronger. The impression that you're fighting inflation. So gold and silver are going down.
- [04:07]
B
But we've seen this before, but you
- [04:10]
A
kind of implied it as well. That's just a narrative.
- [04:13]
B
It's very short term.
- [04:13]
A
That's just the top end narrative. That's not what's actually happening. No, what's actually happening is they're selling paper, the physical products still being taken off the exchanges. There's still a deficit in, in the precious metal in silver.
- [04:26]
B
It's still a critical mineral man drive it home. This is, these are fundamentals that have not changed. The, the overall gold and silver physical market. Those exchanges that Jeremy mentioned being drained from the comics, the lbma, the Shanghai in the Shanghai futures, they're all running on future.
- [04:46]
A
You've had three exchanges halt trading in the last three months or two months, three times. It was LME twice and the CME once halting trading.
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B
Why?
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A
Basically staving off a force majeure.
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B
Right.
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A
MBA economics on X said they're no, they're manipulating as low as they can into the critical mineral price floor announcement into early April. This would allow the bullion banks to force majeure silver, AKA cash, settle the naked shorts for as cheap as possible and give them cover to do so. So I believe it's narrative cover. Yeah, I think that, I think that you're seeing, you know, JP Morgan is buying the physical, they're encouraging their clients to f. To buy the physical, the products coming off the exchanges. And you know, I talked to some clients and I kind of, you know, they ask these questions and I sit back, I go, oh, this is so boring. We've been, we've been having this conversation with people since the price of silver was $17. Here we are, it's, it's $70 and we're still having this conversation, only now it's $70. And the fundamentals are, are even stronger than before as to why the prices are gonna go up from here. The biggest one, as MBA economics just said, is that they're putting a floor under critical minerals. And Jerry, as far as critical minerals go, you have, the US is opening, is creating two refiners for critical minerals. One in Idaho, one in Kentucky. The one in Idaho is $7 billion and I think 2 or 3 billion of it is being fronted by the Department of Defense, the Department of War. So, so they want to make sure that they have the physical product to push the industrial, the re. Industrialization of the US and they're supporting it. So I think it's very interesting. And let me give you something to run with. Please do talk to us about this, this thing that they're doing in the States about going after fraud.
- [07:01]
B
That's huge. Jeremy. There was an executive order yesterday, just yesterday that, that aims to stamp out fraud. I mean this is a wide brush, a wide stroke at.
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A
Yeah, as wide a stroke as hate speech.
- [07:15]
B
Almost as hate speech. But before that, remember it was corruption, the executive order on corruption. And we did see a lot of things happen regarding that, but now it's coming home. How do we stop the fraud? Where's the fraud? We're seeing it in the hospices, we're seeing it in daycare. So that's one level. What about the Federal Reserve? What about the fact that these banks are able to pay their margin calls, real debts with paper, silver and gold contracts. That's like me being able to pay my cra debt, my tax bill with made up money like Canadian Tire money, Jeremy, as I like it, it's made up currency. Could that be fraud? I mean this is a big open opening up. We got the tinfoil ad hom. But we follow these trends and I think it's very important to do so well.
- [08:00]
A
JP Morgan busted many times, you know, manipulating silver and, and other, other cases. The, the key here is that we've been here before, we know the drill. If you know that these are fake narratives to push the price down, to get the paper price down, whereas the physical still being drained. Then you have to understand again, you know the drill, take advantage of it. And so that's what we've been doing. That's what clients have been doing at Guildhall. And for us, the best way to take advantage of, of the dip in precious metals is to own actual physical precious metals. It's not investing, it's ownership. And at Guildhall you can own it directly, buy it direct from Guildhall, go to our E store, Guildhall Precious metals dot com. You can have it put into a sub account at Brinks, fully allocated, fully segregated. You own the product, it's secured for you. Buy and sell easily on a phone call, take delivery anytime, go visit the product. If you can't hold it, you don't own it.
- [09:04]
B
You don't own it.
- [09:05]
A
Same thing with your registered account. You have a retirement account. We've got clients, Jerry, that are up over 400% in precious metals. Silver's up over 800% in the last 20 years. Gold's up over a thousand percent. These are Canadian numbers in. Gold's up over a thousand percent in 20 years. Imagine having that as part of your portfolio, your retirement portfolio, to have anything that's up over a thousand percent. So with Guildhall you can own physical gold and silver in your retirement account, whether it's your riff, your lif, your rsp, your locked in RSP or put it into a TFSA as a place to store liquidity in a market that's insurance against, against currencies. I think that would be a great segue, Jerry. So you hold gold as an insurance policy first for devaluing for the devaluation of currencies. And that's what we're seeing. It's not that gold's gone up a thousand percent, it's that the currencies have failed.
- [10:03]
B
First and foremost, we have to understand that here in Canada, prior to them, prior to the CPI being changed to under report the real rate of inflation, we, we have to remember the entire decade during the 70s that rate of inflation was average 8%. And then in 1980 it was recalculated, brought down to substitute items. They took out mortgage payments, they took out gas, food, things that we need to live on to manufacture, down to 2. If we go back to the 70s rate of calculation, we're closer to 12 to 13%. And this is why Michael Oliver this week, if you're taking profits of gold and silver just to take profits to land into cash. You're missing the point. The first and foremost, you have to diversify away from these fiat currencies that are controlled by these central bankers and you know, these communist nations that want to control your nation's currency because they do not who care who makes the laws. But if you're thinking you're just going to store and wait for the dip while you're sitting in cash, especially five, six, seven figures worth of cash, that's 13% that you're down. Okay, 8% that you're down versus every single major currency. Gold has appreciated about 10% versus every single major currency. So that should be the hedge. But then we move into growth catalysts and we move into the solutions that gold and silver offer. Especially right now where we're seeing a tantrum on the market with over leverage, over froth, over stimulus, where the cost to service the debt is unsustainable to a point where they're begging for more cuts, they're begging for more money. How do we get out of this situation, Jeremy?
- [11:42]
A
Well, talk to us a little bit about. You mentioned to us mentioned in our office that the Fed printed billions of was handing out billions of dollars while they kept the rates the same. Why is it that they're keeping the rates high but then bailing out the market by giving a whole bunch of liquidity? And I know that there's a whole bunch of funds that have stopped redemptions and there's been billions of dollars where people are trying to take funds out and the major banks and certain of these funds are stopping that. So you have the Fed injecting liquidity but saying they're keeping rates high.
- [12:19]
B
We have to remember that these large institutions are holding the majority of excess reserves. Some of the reserves are ours. They're using your money. Since it is a fractional reserve system, that fraction is yours. They hold your money as their collateral. Remember that large institutions. And this is coming from a report this week. We brought up two on the Real Money Show. The first one written by Vince Lancy. Gold's flight path from here. He talks about the third, the three phases of gold. This is just the beginning for gold. And the second report comes to Anz Report, Anz Research rather, but he writes about the Federal reserve back in 2025. Last year, the Federal Reserve announced reserve management purchases to maintain the liquidity. The key word for the next two years, Jeremy, as I said before, is going to be collateral. What is collateral is paper backing the US treasury good collateral? Historically, Voltaire says has said fiat currencies of intrinsically go back to their value of zero. The reserve balances have declined to ample levels. They said in the language of central banking, ample often, often means reserves are approaching scarcity. We think of the repo markets and the overnight market. It's showing that there is no money out there, there is no lending and the next goals, gold and silver phases. It enters into that place where gold becomes that mechanism, not just a commodity like silver and that they, that they are, but they're entering into a monetary being remonetized. And so many entities recently, Jeremy are bringing up the same type of conversation of you know what, what did the US have back then on the balance sheet? You know we had the Cobasi letter wrote last week just reminding Canadians and Americans that the U.S. gold reserves have never been this small relative to the government debt. Gold reserves in the States, 8,000 tons represents just 3% of the overall federal debt. Now if we have to move that now, the general ratio has always been around 18 to 20%. Gold had to represent 18 to 20% of all that debt. Today it's three how do we get back to the 18 to 20% level? Everyone's talking about the revaluation of this collateral. You need to unsuspend the gold standard, get the collateral to really back the treasury yield the treasury market. And I think this is very timely knowing that this is a 250 year anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. There's a lot of movement and chatter about returning to a gold standard. It's not, it's beyond speculation. Go check it out yourselves@the federalreserve.gov but I think a revaluation is coming and just this past week President Trump mentioned he confirms that the financial system is undergoing an update behind the scenes. This is huge and I think in my opinion it's a move away from the petrodollar moving towards unsuspending that gold standard.
- [15:08]
A
Jeremy. So in this research paper they're talking about three phases toward gold repricing. And the third and final phase is basically where your the gold becomes the collateral and backs the currency. In other words, yes, all currencies drop to zero unless you can save it by backing, by having commodity backing, by having gold back the currency, right Then you'd have real money backing the currency. So if you can Jerry, quickly walk us through these three phases and how the dollar could be saved by, by precious metals, specifically gold. But before we do that, before you jump into that, this is talking about these three phases are talking about effectively that we are at the beginning of a bull market. And one of the reasons that you know you're at the beginning of a bull market is because nobody understands what the value of anything is. They don't know what the value of silver is. They don't know what the value of gold is. And when they're trying to figure out the value of it, they're trying to calculate a fiat currency that's dying wrong. They're looking at the price of silver, they're looking at the price of gold, they're not looking at the value of it. And I can tell you, even though it's more expensive today, it feels just as undervalued at $70 silver as it did when it was $8 an ounce. And believe me, it was super cheap. And we didn't respect how, how, how. What an opportunity that was. What an opportunity. It At 15, what an opportunity at 25 to acquire actual physical metal. We didn't appreciate how undervalued it is. But if you can think about that a little bit, you realize how undervalued it is today, not because of the price, but because of what it should buy you. In 1980, to go back to the beginning of the show, gold went to 850. The Dow was trading at 850. That was a one to one ratio. Today it's around 10. Okay. In 1999, at the top of the dot com bubble, it was around 40. In 2011, we hit a 4 to 1 ratio. The fact is, gold is still undervalued against the Dow, it's still undervalued. When you think about how many ounces it should take to buy a house, how many ounces it should take to buy the S and P, or how many silver ounces it should take to buy an ounce of gold. Once people are starting to calculate the value of these metals as they are the measuring stick, not the other way around in fiat terms, then you're starting to enter price discovery.
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B
That's right.
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A
Because they'll be able to say, well, if I can buy a house for 150 ounces of gold or 200 ounces of gold, then I'm making an economic decision that I don't need to hold this much gold. Right, right.
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B
Well, you have to use these ratios that are time tested and true that have been around for thousands of years. You always had this ratio. Especially today, you don't have a proper measuring stick or a measuring rod to value what currency is the strongest. They're all moving down comparative to Gold and we're at a reckoning point Jeremy.
- [18:18]
A
Yeah. So let's talk about these three phases toward a gold repricing. Let's bring it all together.
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B
So again this is from the my mic and report the three phases of gold. And we're currently in the first phase which is a loss of confidence in the dollar, loss of confidence in the currency. They cited a very important quote. Currencies do not usually fade, they tend to just collapse. And when you lose confidence in these currencies things just stand still.
- [18:48]
A
So when so we think about losing confidence in the US dollar, people may not, the general public may not necessarily realize how much purchasing power they've lost. You know let's say in Canada they get a sense of it now because they go see state a stake has cost 30, 50 bucks but you have the brics nation selling, you had the weaponizing of the dollar. So now why would I hold Central banks are saying why would I hold treasuries? Why won't I own gold?
- [19:14]
B
That's right.
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A
That's an example.
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B
Right, exactly. I think that happened in a small scale here in Canada when bank accounts were frozen. Canadians were like well why should I keep my money here? I'm going to get into gold and silver exactly the same thing. It's sovereignty, it's your control when you lose confidence. And that's exactly what happens. So more and more debt and as we as the countries are borrowing from a private entity, a central bank at interest, you need more and more of that debt to service the interest on that debt. It becomes a spiraling issue and ultimately leads to the collapse of the currency. And I think we're on that level right now. The second phase is coming in where the markets are bleeding or they're asking for cash to be injected into the system. Cash was just, actually just injected this morning at 9 o' clock in the morning I believe billion was just injected.
- [20:04]
A
So the higher rates has basically sopped up liquidity and now there's a liquidity crunch. Right. You think about mortgages for instance turning over. Now it's four times as much as it used to be.
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B
Even bringing it down here that you're
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A
saying that the raising of the rates has, has, has quickened. Yes, the, the liquidity crisis.
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B
Yeah. So another dump of currencies just happened in the overnight market. I mean in the morning the U. S. Federal Reserve just printed another round of $8 billion. So the printing is happening. However they kept rates on hold. Which one is it? Are you loosening, Are you tightening the Federal Reserve is trapped. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve with this, with this G even. That's the geopolitical plays moving away from central banks. But even at home. Canadian, if we look at our household debt to GDP ratio, Canada is amongst the worst, second worst amongst OECD nations. We're seeing that in the big play institutions and countries, and we're seeing it here at home. But we're entering into the third phase after the rounds of money printing, which could be very inflationary, potentially hyperinflationary, saying
- [21:11]
A
that's coming next, that's coming next.
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B
So we're going to.
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A
It's happening on the sly right now, but you think it's going to happen in public view soon.
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B
We would likely see that people are feeling the pinch already. Prices are moving higher, they're not coming down. We can have control with the oil if we can somehow get the oil prices down. If the Middle east issues subside, maybe the prices can slow down. But the ultimate issue is figuring out how much of that debt has to be backed up. Moving into phase number three, bringing in gold's role. Gold acts as that balance sheet repair mechanism. When the balance sheet is out of whack, when you have trillions plus quadrillions of toxic derivatives still sitting in the banking sheet, that has to be reckoned with. Now, I think the fraud thing will probably impound and scale some of that debt down, but a lot of that debt has to be backed up. And historically 30 to 50% of the reserves were gold, according to this research paper. Implied gold price range according to American, is estimated 8,000 to 12, $13,000 US per O. Their bottom line is this is a monetary transition, not a typical bull market as we've seen before, of gold moving higher and then lower. Gold needs to move higher as the system's backup, as the system's collateral. It can't just be wavy like this, Jeremy. Can't just go up and then come back down. They're putting price floors, they're putting a standard in place. And this should give us solace and give us peace of mind, knowing we're not only on the right side of history, but you're backing your own wealth in your own portfolio with real money. You know, this is a monetary transition is what they write. Gold doesn't chase the system, it reprices the system. There's a lot of talk about gold standard this week from even Scott Besse.
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A
Oh, yeah, and I think that going back to the 1980 time frame as well, what's different and what's different is that the system is changing.
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B
Yes.
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A
Now, true, they were able to raise interest rates. You can't raise interest rates to 18%. You'd collapse the economy. It's struggling at 4% in some cases. I think there's a lot of investment in the States that's overcoming that and mitigating it. But still, you can't raise rates to 18% plus. And the system that was controlling the silver market and controlling gold market at that time, the paper market, et cetera, is losing control. And that's the big thing, as you mentioned, mentioned the quote from Trump, that the world is changing, the economic system is changing. And you know that because central banks aren't selling gold, they're buying it. And they've been buying it since 2008, which anyone who's been following since that time knows that that really ended it all. And it's been sort of one big weekend at Bernie's since. Since that time the roadrunner ran off the cliff a long time ago and it's just been kicked the can. I think that was a good amount of analogies right there.
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B
Definitely.
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A
There's a lot better, though. Yeah, there's a lot more. But that's why eventually history is a pendulum and it's swinging back. The central banks understand that, and you understand that if the gold price rises significantly in that currency, it absolves a lot of things. Because all of a sudden, if you were to reprice the balance sheet of the Treasury, 8,000 tons plus up to $10,000, you've got trillions of dollars in hand that you can now use as collateral. Hedging found liquidity, finding the liquidity. And that's where we're headed with this. And also the fact that if it's been manipulated for 50 years because of all of these fake narratives, it's sort of like there's a real narrative, right. And then there's a fake narrative. And to make the fake narrative look right, you have to do some real things. Right. And so it seems like you have to suspend your disbelief. But you look around, I look around, I don't understand why gas prices are high in Canada.
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B
Right.
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A
I'm not sure what it, what it means. We talk at the office and it's like, well, they won't lower the HST on it. No. Do you know how much more they make is on. On a. On a $60 than when it was a $20?
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B
Yeah.
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A
You want a government tax percentage is that much higher. And they don't do anything to help you.
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B
They Help you easily give you a little rebate.
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A
You've got to become your own central
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B
bank, become your own sovereignty source. And gold and silver offer that they don't run deficits, they don't start wars, they're neutral, they're not red or blue, they're not left or right. They're going to be your stabilizer for your portfolio. As you convert out of these fiat currencies that are losing purchasing power year over year, 10 to 13% down year over year, you realize you are in a fight. So rather than rolling the dice with your wealth and trying to figure out where you should park your wealth, all of those assets are denominated in a currency. It doesn't matter if it's a stock or a mutual fund or GIC or even a home for that matter. You know, as a week, we see things happening in the, in Cuba and Venezuela. Just to remind Venezuela, in Caraca stock exchange in 2019, they saw one of the most epic stock market runs, but that was because of hyperinflation. They were up over 200,000% in their stock market portfolio. The people thought they were rich, but in fact when they decided to sell and take profit, well, they were in a Titanic ship. The, the Bolivar was dead. It couldn't buy a thing. It was toilet paper. So to suggest that cannot happen here in Canada. I mean, just like us, you know, they were the richest nation in the southern hemisphere. We are the, we are the same resource rich nation. We're slowly moving towards this type of a government that's more, you know, hands on your money. This is one way to get out of that is to convert out of the fiat system, out of fiat currencies and into ounces.
- [27:10]
A
And we've talked about this before. Effectively gold wins whether you're blue sky or gray sky, right? Because if you think that there's going to be hyperinflation, you want to own gold, if you think that the way to save the currency is to back it with gold, then you want to own gold for the revaluation, which is really what I believe, I believe gold is about. This is an opportunity to ride the wave of revaluation and I think that that's happening. And silver is a different story for the industrial side of things because it is going to be, we're in again six year of deficit and it's going to be immense moving forward in terms of the demand on it. So you look at $70, it's down today, maybe not by the time the show gets published, but it's down today. You say, okay, did, did we resolve these deficits? Do those get resolved at 140 or $200 an ounce? Probably not. So you want to take advantage of those dips. If you can understand that and not have your emotions get in the way. And for us, the best way to get involved in precious metals is to own it directly. There's investments. Those are paper. You don't get to own anything that's on paper. You don't get access to anything that's on paper. That makes it an investment. It's. There's a counterpart party risk. With Guildhall, everything is yours. You own it. It's physical, it's allocated, it's segregated. You get an inventory report of your product. You can go to the vault and personally audit your holdings. You can hold it personally directly with the, with the vault, or you can also have it in your registered account like an rsp, a tfsa, a lira, a lif, a riff.
- [28:49]
B
And.
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A
And what we do at Guildhall is we help the client establish the account. We help them with their transfers, we help them with the acquisition. We're there to answer questions along the way, anything that they need. We have a team that's there to help them with all of their registered account needs. And we also love talk clearly, clearly, we like talking about the market. Jerry, we got 30 seconds. Any last comments?
- [29:17]
B
You know, I think that as we progress into the summer season, the seasonality, things really get hotter and hotter for precious metals as we go into the hotter months. So sift through, filter through the March madness, as we call this month the Ides of March. Understand what is happening behind the scenes. The system is changing, changing for the better. If you hold physical gold and silver, we do encourage you to get in touch. Get your investor kit directly with Guildhall. Give us a call. That number is 1-8778-silver. And that website, guildhall wealth.com. get your investor kit. And we look forward to assisting you every single step of the way. We're here for you.
- [29:58]
A
And that does it for another episode of the Real Money show. Can't wait to speak to you soon.
- [30:03]
B
Take care.