Rebel News Podcast Summary

Episode: SHEILA GUNN REID | Alberta's 'pipeline deal' with Mark Carney
Date: December 4, 2025
Host: Sheila Gunn Reid
Guest: Kris Sims, Alberta Taxpayers Federation

Overview

This episode centers on a detailed critique and analysis of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith's memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Prime Minister Mark Carney regarding a potential new pipeline deal. Host Sheila Gunn Reid, joined by Kris Sims of the Alberta Taxpayers Federation, dissects the risks, economic ramifications, and political context of the agreement—most notably concerns about an increased industrial carbon tax for Albertans without any clear guarantee of pipeline construction. The conversation weaves through industry realities, policy skepticism, and the broader implications for both Alberta's economy and the Canadian political landscape.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Summary of the “Pipeline Deal” and Its Implications

• Sheila summarizes the deal: The MOU requires Alberta to adopt a higher industrial carbon tax, ostensibly in exchange for progress on pipelines, but doesn’t guarantee a pipeline will be built. (00:56)
  • "There is no obligation for a pipeline to be built before we start paying that enhanced industrial carbon tax. Now, perhaps I'm getting something wrong, but I don't think I am." —Sheila Gunn Reid (01:12)

2. Initial Positive Framing—and Immediate Skepticism

• Kris Sims acknowledges potential positives if conditions are fulfilled:

  • If the production cap and west coast tanker ban are lifted and regulations strangling gas plants are removed, “that would be very good for Alberta.” (02:40)
  • Still, Kris is doubtful: “I’m concerned that the devil's in the details here.” (03:34)

• Risk of higher costs on Alberta oil:

  • Kris summarizes economist Jack Mintz’s warning that layers of carbon taxes could add up to $10 US per barrel, potentially pricing Alberta out of the market and harming government revenues tied to oil. (04:47)
  • "If they layer on all of these carbon taxes… it could be as high as $10 extra US per barrel... That kind of prices us out of the market." —Kris Sims (05:23)

3. Trust and Accountability

• Premier Smith’s “Trust But Verify” Approach:
  • Quoting Premier Smith: “Trust but verify, and on behalf of Albertans, I will be verifying and holding Ottawa accountable…every step of the way.” (06:43)
  • Kris and Sheila’s perspective: Alberta has “had the rug pulled out from under them too many times.” (06:58)

4. Winners and Losers: Big Oil vs. Junior Producers

• Concerns that large companies can absorb costs while smaller ones cannot:
  • Sheila points out that the “big five” can handle the extra costs—especially as Pathways Alliance carbon capture participants—while juniors and mid-sized firms might be rendered non-viable. (07:35)
  • “This sort of additional cost can make their projects and their investments completely unviable. And that's my concern in all of this, is this can become a damper to anybody but the big five.” —Sheila Gunn Reid (07:53)

5. Political Deja Vu: The Return of “Social License”?

• Skepticism about repeating past policy mistakes:
  • Kris draws parallels with Rachel Notley’s prior “social license” argument, where carbon taxes were adopted to secure pipelines, a strategy that ultimately failed. (09:04)
  • "It's the same argument. I thought we left the flawed idea of Social license in the dustbin of the Notley era. And we've resurrected it and I hope we haven't." —Sheila Gunn Reid (09:22)

6. Clarity and Confusion over Carbon Tax Models

• Industry narratives vs. economic scrutiny:
  • Some claim the industrial carbon tax will be “just oil companies passing monopoly money back and forth,” with no impact on consumers or taxpayers (10:10).
  • Kris relays that economist Mintz dismissed this as unrealistic, and reiterates hopes that the tax can be minimized if the benefits are real. (10:48)

7. Elite Dismissal, Party Divisions, and Hidden Carbon Taxes

• Sheila expresses frustration with party insiders:

  • “I've just about had it over the past week with conservative insiders telling me that I'm not bright enough to understand what I absolutely just read… it feels a lot like Notley's social license. And the Conservative Party federally just got cut off the knees on this issue.” (11:02)

• Sheila notes how the industrial carbon tax’s shift from consumer visibility helps shield Liberals from criticism while appearing to make the tax disappear as a line item from energy bills—while costs quietly rise: (11:27)

8. Mark Carney’s Vision and the “Hidden Carbon Tax”

• Kris warns Carney telegraphed these moves:
  • Carney has long stated he’d “strengthen” the carbon tax and authored a book advocating for carbon pricing, referencing Greta Thunberg and endorsed by international figures like Bono. (12:05-12:41)

9. Competitiveness and Investment Risk

• Broader context: global competition for energy investment:

  • Sheila highlights that other oil powers (Russia, OPEC, USA) aren’t imposing such taxes, asking, “Why would you invest here?” (13:27)

• Contrast with U.S. energy policy:

  • Kris notes U.S. is in a “drill, baby, drill” mode, strengthening Alberta’s comparative disadvantage under the new deal. (14:06)

10. Missed Industrial Opportunities

• Sheila laments Canada’s lack of seriousness:
  • Uses Algoma Steel as an example of missed industrial synergies for pipeline manufacturing: “Algoma Steel could have made a heck of a lot of pipelines for Western Canada, but we’re not a serious country.” (14:20)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Sheila Gunn Reid [01:12]:
  "There is no obligation for a pipeline to be built before we start paying that enhanced industrial carbon tax."

• Kris Sims [05:23]:
  "If they layer on all these carbon taxes… that could be as high as $10 extra US per barrel. That kind of prices us out of the market."

• Premier Smith (quoted by Kris Sims) [06:43]:
  "Trust but verify, and on behalf of Albertans, I will be verifying and holding Ottawa accountable… every step of the way."

• Sheila Gunn Reid [07:53]:
  "This sort of additional cost can make their projects and their investments completely unviable. And that's my concern in all of this, is this can become a damper to anybody but the big five."

• Sheila Gunn Reid [09:22]:
  "I thought we left the flawed idea of Social license in the dustbin of the Notley era. And we've resurrected it and I hope we haven't."

• Sheila Gunn Reid [11:02]:
  "I've just about had it over the past week with conservative insiders telling me that I'm not bright enough to understand what I absolutely just read."

• Kris Sims [12:05]:
  "Remember during the election when Carney kind of laughed at the idea of axing the tax and he said, we're going to change the carbon tax. This is what we've been warning about now here for ages."

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:56–01:49: Sheila introduces the deal and her concerns
• 02:40–05:23: Kris discusses the stakes, risks, and economics of carbon taxes
• 06:37–06:58: Premier Smith’s “Trust but verify” remarks
• 07:35–08:14: Impact on big oil and junior producers
• 09:04–09:34: Social license history and comparisons
• 10:10–10:48: The confusing industry narrative about the industrial carbon tax
• 11:02–11:27: Sheila’s frustrations with party insiders and shifting costs
• 12:05–12:41: Mark Carney's carbon tax agenda and broader vision
• 13:27–14:06: Alberta’s global competitiveness and disincentives for investment
• 14:20: Missed domestic opportunities (Algoma Steel)

Conclusion/Takeaways

The episode delivers a rigorous, skeptical examination of Alberta’s latest deal with Ottawa, unpacking the risks of hiking industrial carbon taxes without guaranteed benefits, questioning whether history is repeating itself with failed “social license” strategies, and highlighting the possible adverse impacts on Alberta’s economy and political landscape. Trust issues, transparency, and risk to smaller industry players dominate the conversation, framed in a tone of guarded realism and concern for Alberta taxpayers and workers.