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SPONSOR | BREAKOUT! Why this silver rally is different
00:29:50
Silver’s explosive gains reflect a deeper structural shift away from fiat currencies and paper markets. With remonetization underway and industrial demand surging, the case for physical silver is strengthening fast.
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- [00:00]
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Foreign.
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B
Welcome to another edition of the Real Money Show. My name is Jeremy Wiseman. I'm joined by Jerry Coraya. And Jerry it getting ready for today's show, we were overwhelmed because the market's been moving quite a lot. In fact, I've got some numbers here for, for what we've been seeing in the market so far we've had 130% gain in silver this year. We're going to get into some of the stories that we've been been seeing throughout the year and it seems like there's velocity happening that every week there's more things.
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Oh my gosh.
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Going on in the market. So we're busy. Market's busy. People are excited. It's great to see people making money. But one of the big themes I, I think we should cover today is the, the new fundamentals for the market. In the past, the reasons why people have been getting involved in both gold and silver have been inflation is a big one. Obviously the more money or currency you print, the more currency is chasing goods. So the prices rise. That's been a huge one. Another one was always safe haven. Demand in. And what we mean by safe haven is sort of, well, what happens if your stocks fall? You want to have a diversified portfolio. And of course, another important one is supply and demand fundamental, which I think still plays a really big role. So one of the things I'm seeing is a proliferation, I don't know about you in social media of investing channels that were, say, more focused on crypto are all of a sudden talking precious metals and they're kind of talking about these fundamentals. So let's talk about what the new fundamentals are.
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A
Yeah. As Vince Lancy says, data is, doesn't matter anymore. It's a structural shift happening in the market and there are new fundamentals. So we often discuss silver and gold, the precious metals sectors, as being like this engine we have. We're a V12. We have just 12 pistons just pumping at the same time. This is why we are constantly filtering through the most relevant news to deliver to the people, to our clients and which is why they come to Guildhall because we speak the same lingo. I mean, if you're watching Rebel News, our clients watch Rebel News. So we understand why you're watching. You want to free your wealth, but you need to be and get empowered with what's happening. And as far as the precious metals market goes, the driving fundamentals of physical ownership, because we don't do the paper stuff, don't get it confused. We don't do the futures or ETFs or certificates we've introduced and we've been introduced with or new themes have come on board. We have the growing remonetization of physical precious metals that were precious connotates that gold and silver are monetary metals. Right. So we have to remember what is money. And this is why the show is called the Real Money Show.
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B
Yeah. And so when we're looking at for example, one of the new fundamentals being remonetization, you can see things like in Asia they titled gold and silver high quality liquid assets, hqla. And then the other one is recently in India that they are allowing people to bring their silver to the bank to get loans against it.
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Yeah.
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B
Which is effectively you're saying it's a tier one asset as stated by the bank of International Settlement.
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Yeah. The Reserve bank of India permits silver and gold as collateral.
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B
Yeah. So and that's. We're going to see more and more of that developing over time. So this idea of, of it becoming a monetary asset again and I think as, as the dollar continues to lose value or currencies continue to lose value, I think that people can make changes very quickly and start to understand the differences between a currency and money. Currency being just a unit of exchange doesn't necessarily hold any value as we're seeing with our own currency in Canada. But money is a store of value.
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Yes.
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That's what gold and silver have done for, for decades. Yeah. But the now the next fundamental. Yeah. Is that it's, it's been. The price itself has been managed for the better part of 50 years. Oh yes. They lifted the gold standard. Yes. What does that mean? It means that, you know, in. They created the futures market to create volatility. Right. So what did your advisor say to you? Oh, you don't want to get gold or silver. It's volatile. Right.
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A
It's the career.
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B
Did that get created from that got created from the futures market. Then you have the, what I call a psyop against gold and silver, which is you don't want to own gold. It's a relic. It doesn't pay a dividend.
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It's just a tradition.
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Yeah, it's just a tradition.
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Who said that?
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That was Bernanke is just a tradition to Ron Paul. You know, you can't eat it. What are you going to buy with it?
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Those things?
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B
What are you, a gold bug?
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So great.
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Psyop got people out of it. Yeah. And they needed you in fiat currencies because that's how they wanted to take your money through inflation, give me the.
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Power to create the nation's currency and I care not who makes its laws. Rothschilds said.
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Now I love that. The thing is, is that that worked as long as the silver users got their product, they're happy to get it at a low price. What happens when the supply runs out and they still need the product? Right? Or what happens when billionaires like David Bateman will talk about, start to realize, wait a minute, this is extremely undervalued. Just like Charles de Gaulle noticed in 1970 when he said, I'll take the gold. If you're charging $35 an ounce, I'll, I'll take the gold now. Right? Here's, here's my, here's my destroyer ship.
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Come sending my ships to pick it up.
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Just load up the gold.
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That's right.
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And then they close the window. So the idea that that system is collapsing just like the London gold pool did in the late 60s. So now you have all of this demand by not just in users, but also investment and people looking to get out of the dollar, for instance. And it's not just getting out of the dollar, by the way, it's also not trusting the other dollars. China sit there and say, well, we know you don't like the US but you can trust our dollar. No, you, they, they need something different, right? And we're talking gold here, but eventually silver.
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This is what we're seeing, right? We've seen the bricks unit just been, been released or they were going to be launching the bricks unit, which is a, a unit of a digital currency backed by gold that is introduced by the BRICS nations because they have created this, the golden corridor across Africa right into East Asia. And, and just recently JP Morgan jumped ship and head overseas to Singapore, probably to align the JP Morgan vaults into the golden corridor for banking. But gold and silver, they're monetary assets, they're tier one capital, they're high quality liquid assets. And this is important today because the treasury, which is the very fabric of the US economy, the collateral values are dying. Collateral is dying, folks. And this is the reason why we're seeing the overnight repo market blowing up once again. Japan is about to raise interest rates to the highest point ever in the last 50 years. This is going to blow up. The yen carry trade, the yen carry trade is going to blow up. This is going to show that the assets that you have on the balance sheet is very small compared to all of the derivatives and the liabilities that are sloshing around and gonna Literally blow up. Because the carry trade ever since World War II, the yen, the Japanese were told to keep their interest rates at negative. This Godzilla financial system was created and you could borrow the yen and, and you can finance anything. We're talking about currencies could be financed, corporate real estate could be financed. Pro possibly corruption was financialization. It's total financialization based on the currency. But the currency has gone belly up. There was probably a meeting, but the core five. Okay, right. And you know Japan is now reversing course. They're about to raise interest rates. It's going to cause tremendous volatility. So assets need to be shored up. So we're seeing demand coming in a structural reset. And what's driving prices higher, it's structural stress because there's not enough silver in the market to, to quell all of those futures contracts. And now you have scarcity driven growth. Another fundamental for silver and precious metals.
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B
Well you jumped back a little bit into definancialization there with the yen carry trade.
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That's what I do.
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B
And then to just follow up on the other point which was the repricing of silver after it's been managed. We're talking silver but both gold and silver where the price has been managed for the better part of 50 years. And that was based on financialization and paper, paper inventory. Well the bluff has been called on the paper inventory and people want the physical. Yeah, right. So the end of financialization means the repricing of things. And that's really the second fundamental. The third fundamental is going to be the industrial side of it. Not just oh, industrial demand. There's a lot of industrial demand, but it's the future. Industrial demand, yes. Where it's going to come from. So let's jump into the future of industrial demand. Earlier this year we talked about Samsung releasing a solid state battery that would revolutionize EV vehicles. This is a breakthrough in technology. The idea would be be able to charge your car faster, way faster, you'd be able to go further with it, et cetera, et cetera. And at the time when we, I forget when we mentioned it, I think early spring or late winter last year, this year. But we've had a development in that story and I notice it's come back in the news. Do you want to tell us a little bit about what's happening there?
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A
So yes. Samsung recently was approached a mine, a Canadian company to secure two years worth. So they're going forward, in essence they're locking in a two year forward on future output for their Silver, why? It's just like a forward contract in currencies. When I was dealing currencies, you want to, you think the rates are going to go up, you want to lock in today's rate two years out, you pay a little premium. But this is what you're getting, you're locking in. But not just financials. They're doing this to secure the growth and the future of Samsung. Because that battery, I mean you're not only getting a safer battery, it's safer. The lifespans, 20 plus years, an 800 kilometer range and faster charging, 80% charge in nine minutes. You're not going to be sitting in that parking lot potentially blowing up your battery. You know, there's going to be revolutionizing.
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B
You get to own silver too.
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And plus you get to drive your silver vehicle. I see it right now, the Samsung Silver Streaker or something.
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Well, I ran some, some numbers on it and there's up to a kilo bar in every, every Samsung solid state battery. So if a hundred, if a million vehicles adopted it, you'd be looking at a thousand tons or 32 million ounces, or 4% of annual mine supply. That's only on a million vehicles. If you were to move, obviously move that up, you're looking at a significant amount. You could be looking at as of right now, up to 20% of mining supply just on this one battery alone.
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And that's just battery. We're talking about the future of technology. You know, as much as we advance technologically, folks, you're going to need more silver for your stuff. You know, you want to build out. BNN continuously talks about the building out of AI. It's great, I embrace it, but we have to embrace the materials that you need to build it. And you need silver to build your data center in Ontario for your AI. Tens of thousands of kilograms of silver in every new data center. The new race, the new space race, the new market is an arms race for physical metals. This is a new race, It's a new space race, but it's for physical metals, specifically silver. This is the reason why we're seeing billionaires coming on board and they're racing towards this as an investment.
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B
So is it. So after, you know, 130% gain this year, to me it seems like, okay, again, we're, we're rebalancing the books. The price has been kept down for years upon years because if the price is moving higher, people want to be involved in it. Right?
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Right.
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That's just a fact of life. The higher the price goes more people want to get involved. There's more people who will buy at 50 than ever BOUGH 20 more will buy at 70 than ever bought at 50. And that continues along. But the price was managed for a very long time. The lid is coming off of that. So you're, you're having to, you know, the beach ball underwater, the compressed spring, it's starting to bounce back. How far along are we in the bull market and are people and are these billionaires who are buying silver and we'll get into those in just a moment. How far are we into this bull market right now?
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A
I think we are just at the, possibly the tail end of the third super cycle. And precious metals we follow Chris Cat Capital, we follow Jim Rickards who comment on commenting on this. So this is a 50 going back 50 years of super cycles. We've had two previous from 1970 to 1980 and then 2000 to 2010. Those cycles saw gold from low to high, about average 400, 1400%. And that's when we bottomed out at 16 to 1 in 1980, where you just needed 2000 ounces of silver to buy a house. Now if the next cycle, which is supposed to be around 14k from low to high in the next, by the next year or so, that would put Silver at around 490 US per ounce and scoff at that idea. But when you look at things like cryptos, when you have ethereum into the thousands and bitcoins close to 100,000 that literally just have one or two utilities, where we have physical silver with multiple usages as well as being reintroduced as monetary, I think the future looks very bright. We're very supported. The future is precious, Jeremy. We're not doom and gloomers here at Guildhall. We believe that gold and silver will usher in that solution. And I do believe it's going to be coming down the pike very soon as asset prices have to get revalued.
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B
So let's talk about David Bateman. He's a billionaire who recently purchased silver, I guess last year. He's done very well on his purchases, but he stepped into the market recently when the price had a very quick dip in the market and bought a whole bunch more. Tell us about.
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A
Yeah, tell us about David Bateman. Yeah, he's founded the and harvested tech unicorn Entrada. It's probably the most popular property management software that's used. If you're a property manager, you probably use that. His most recent physical silver purchase was his third, I believe on December 15th. On 16th almost a week ago he bought 300 monster boxes of Silver Eagles. Jeremy. That's 500 ounces each box. That's 150000 ounces of physical silver coins. He mentioned the premiums were low and he was enthusiastic about that. Before that December 13th couple days prior he posted about buying 350000 ounces of physical silver the the previous week at the dip. And then his major early buys was the massive 800,000 ounces on July the second of during the summer and then the initial massive 12.69 million ounces back in March of 2020 25. As of this month his total physical stack of silver is around 12. Just under 13 million ounces. Now let's look at these his averages. His average. He's averaged about 35 to $40 US per ounce across the full stack.
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Yeah.
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His, his re unrealized gains because he hasn't sold. He probably will not sell are some. His gains are substantial. He's at $66. The silver's at $65 an ounce.
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Right.
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He's up about translating to about 400 to $600 million in paper profits on the physical silver which is about 90 up overall.
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So he. His profits are more than what Saudi Arabia invested just recently bought. They put $20 million I think, I believe it's 20 million into the ETF.
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Yeah. Right there it was in the millions.
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Yeah. Where whereas this, this gentleman is taking delivery of the physical product. It's, it's being withdrawn out of the market.
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Yeah. He's. I mean his, his most recent buy. I mean two weeks ago.
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How come they're not vilifying him like the Hunt brothers?
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You know what, that's a very good question. I think just because he has credibility of being successful in everything he's done. I don't think he has that they could say anything wrong about him.
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I mean.
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Or he's just highlighting everything that he comments on.
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X yeah.
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Is to do has to do with obtaining the physical stay away from the futures. And that was the, that was the.
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That was their downfall actually. That's true. That's very.
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So his comments. He continues to add on the dips and rallies. He comments but he's super excited. His most recent comment was. Was yesterday. He says yes it's possible for the price of silver to go 5x or 10x from here. But don't forget the price of other investable assets. Stocks, bonds, real estate which again are priced in dollars. We have to remember that could collapse simultaneously resulting in an even more Exaggerated increase in silver's buying power. This is a once in a multi century event unfolding on a planetary scale. It's involving everybody. Anyone can get involved if you have just a few hundred dollars, a few thousand. We have a monthly buyer's plan you want to accumulate with Guildhall. We want to help you out. Get out of the physical, get out of the currency denominated assets that you're in, in your portfolio, your RSPs, TFSAs you want to roll out of that convert with Guildhall, get the physical bars totally unencumbered. Outside of the banking system, outside of the digital fiat system, this is how they get you. They want to keep you in the bank, but we want to get you free as the central bank of India is allowing the people of India to, to buy it in the pension.
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B
Yeah, that's huge.
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A
Why doesn't Canada's regulators allow that?
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B
Well, why doesn't, why don't they?
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Oh, you, you know, the various regulators that we have are, you know, crown corporations and we know who the crown is. You know, they love the fiat system that we're seeing. The London Bullion Market association, the London Metals Exchange, the metals fleeing. He who has the gold makes the rules. The old guard is stepping down. We're seeing a reintroduction of gold and silver for the people. And this is how we take back our sovereignty. This is how we take back our purchasing power and our future for our kids. Right.
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B
I think, you know, one of the things though is you look at where the current price of gold is, not necessarily what the value of gold is and the price of silver has made a nice move. I think there's a tendency there to say, oh, it's getting expensive.
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Sure.
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B
Right. And one of the themes that I've been noticing recently with the current bull market that we're having and you speak to people, is it's not that gold is expensive, it's that you haven't kept up with wages. The value of your labor hasn't kept up. I was seeing this post that in the 30s an unskilled laborer made I think between 12 and 1500 dollars a year. But with 35 dollars an ounce, that was 40 plus ounces of gold, some good coin. That means in today's market you'd be making quarter million good coin. But it's not the quarter million real coin though. It's not the quarter million, it's the. Also income tax wasn't where it is today. It wasn't, it wasn't 40% on 250 250,000. Right. So imagine you were able to keep Most of that 250. If that was the case, then you have a one income family.
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Yes.
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Probably have a couple kids, can go, can go on vacation.
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Quality of life.
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So, so what's happening? What's happening is in some ways it's a confiscation. If you're not going to own it because it's getting too expensive, then you're not going to own anything.
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Right.
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So if gold starts to feel too expensive, then that's where silver comes in. Right. Because at $67 an ounce US it's certainly nowhere near where gold is. And the ratio right now is still close to 70 to 1, which is nowhere close to the historic ratio, which is 16 to 1, still under. And so that's going to be one criteria we follow along the way. We hit 16 to 1 in 1980, we hit 35 to 1 in 2011. We're sitting at just under 70, which says silver is a screaming buy here at this point. Yeah, regardless, there is a long way to go. And of course the banks are all still pretty positive on gold. All of their forecasts for 2026 are higher, whether it as they are $4,600 up to $4,800 and as we saw this year, they all change their forecast throughout the year.
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A
Right. Well, you know what, you brought up a good point to understand the value of your currency, understand the value of your work. And that's one of our, I guess the new fundamentals is we've moved from just a hedge to a growth catalyst. We, you now have to fight back because the rate of inflation that CP lie, as I call it, and I, you know, we use the metrics of, you know, the shadow stats. For example, John Williams, we had him on the show before, who's uncovered that the way that Canada, especially in the US as well calculated inflation during the 70s. If you look at the average rate of inflation in Canada, the average rate was 8.4%. And then magically in 1980 it went down to 2. What happened? Well, there was a lot of substitutions, hedonics, and they lowered the rate of inflation so that they can give you a measly yield. And I think that's what people are really chasing, yield, but not understanding that we have to be watching the drop in our currency's purchasing power, which if we still use the 1970s calculation, we would be double digits. So that 3, 5% GIC at the bank does not cut it. You're still down and you know, we're up very, very nicely the year so far. And yes, banks are very positive on gold as they have to be. You can't really avoid and ignore the precious metals market.
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B
Well, central banks are buying it, the brics are buying it. It's all moving towards a new financial system where it's we're not going to trust the currencies, we're going to trust the money. And gold is obviously universal money. Now Jerry, you mentioned that prior bull markets in silver specifically up 1400 percent are the type of gains you said David Bateman's looking for.5 to 10x. From here we have a ratio that's just under 70 to 1. Is this the type of generational opportunity that people have been looking for?
- [24:31]
A
Absolutely. I mean we have so many, we use a lot of metrics, we use a lot of ratios to determine where we are at. Because the metrics that we use, the cpi, they're broken, the data is dead. As Vince Lancy said, you have to trust other time tested ratios and cycles which is why we use the 50 year. And here's another one, the 160 year old silver cup and handle. We love this cup of tea because some people say that silver is undergoing a correction, it could be overbought, right? But that's complete nonsense. On the contrary, we are convinced that silver, this is coming from Tim Hack. Silver has not even broken out yet. If you track the price back to the 1800-1800 you will be shocked to discover that a second larger cup lies ahead. Now this is a technical pattern that shows a peak and a trough and a peak and a little teacup handle. And at the tail end that teacup handle lies another super cycle up and a larger cup lies ahead. And since one can argue that the squeeze of the 1980s was exaggerated by the Hunt brother speculation, a staged mega cup has formed, breaking out first at $65 an ounce and then again at $100 an ounce ahead. With the final breakout occurring around $200 per ounce, causing a long term push towards US$1,000 an ounce. And this all coincides with the 50 year super cycle chart that we talked about. And even when you even couple in Michael Oliver's strategies as well, he uses the MSA which is momentum structure analysis which also points to $100 within a few months. So everything's moving in the right direction. It's not driven by, you know, speculative excess. This is structural change and supply squeezes in silver. The lease rates are up, it's signaling silver squeeze is still on it, it predicts a silver squeeze. So we have to follow that as well. The markets are moving higher and well supported. Yeah.
- [26:37]
B
And I think I've always believed that seeing is believing for a lot of people, you know, for, for us who've been in the markets for well over 15 years, it's been a lot of here's the, here are the fundamentals, here's what we're looking at. And then to see it happen in reality, you're almost a little beside yourself. But I do believe seeing is believing. I think that people needed to see $50 an ounce. They took a little pause to digest it and then we're back up and running again from there. And I kind of think that maybe at the $100 level, here's my strategy very quick before we go is I think that at 66 some people are looking at that going, yeah, well it can't go to, there's 100% bias. So don't say sure. Well I think it can go to 120. But if it's at 100 they think, well I can it go to 200? Right. That 100% bias is in play. But the idea of 66 to 120.
- [27:36]
A
Right.
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B
They're not seeing it. But once it gets close to 100 they'll be thinking, well can it go to two triple? And you'll see a whole new influx. And I can't imagine what the fundamentals are going to look like at that time in terms of again, just to wrap up the show, definancialization, remonetization, revaluation.
- [27:53]
A
And technologies, scarcity driven growth. And we're moving from hedge to growth catalyst. And we talked about this Jeremy, at our seminar. It was last winter for those who came out to the, to the hotel, to the seminar. This was the title of our seminar that the future is precious. You know, we are, we are very optimistic about the future even though right now could seem murky, especially here in Canada, but this is your way out. Canadians need to, you know, start taking ownership once again for their wealth. Be responsible with your money right now and convert out of denominate currency, denominated assets and get into position as a hedge first and foremost. But position for that growth that's going to be happening in your portfolio. You want to do with us, you want to get in touch with us. Request your, your, the Guildhall investor kit. You want to give us a call at 1-8778 silver or guildhall wealth.com rebel to get in touch with us to get your investor kit.
- [28:57]
B
Yeah. And what we really focus on is helping clients own actual physical gold and silver in a registered account, where it's going to be stored in a vault facility outside the banking system.
- [29:09]
A
Hot knob.
- [29:09]
B
So you own your own product. It's allocated, segregated, but it's held outside the banking system for even more added protection. So that's it. That's another episode of the Real Money Show. Hope you enjoyed it. And get in touch with us. We can't wait to speak to you. You will be speaking to one of us or one of our team.
- [29:27]
A
Or both.
- [29:28]
B
Exactly. Catch us on our YouTube channel as well, at Guildhall Wealth Management. And we can't wait to speak to you next time on the Real Money Show.
- [29:37]
A
And Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to all those celebrating. Take care.