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SPONSOR | What the silver selloff really means
00:27:23
Jeremy Wiseman and Jerry Correia break down the recent surge and pullback in silver and explain why volatility and “dislocation” are classic features of a real bull market — not signs of weakness.
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- [00:00]
A
Foreign. To the Real Money Show. My name is Jeremy Wiseman. I'm joined by Jerry Karia and we're recording today on February 5th. I would, before we get out the gate here, Jerry, I'd just like to mention your side of the table is very messy.
- [00:20]
B
Can't help it, Jeremy. I'm just, just full of information.
- [00:24]
A
So there's a lot. Yeah, there's a lot happening in the market. We've seen, seen a big run up in silver over the last couple weeks and also a big pullback in the market over the last couple weeks. I think the word of the day should be dislocation. There's clearly a difference between what's happening in the paper markets and what's happening in the actual physical market. Before we get into those discrepancies and what we're experiencing and how we feel this is going to play out, just want to talk a little bit about some of the psychology that we've, we've been witnessing in the market for the last week and a half, which is we noticed that once silver broke over $100, we saw more buying coming into the market. People were very excited about the gains that were occurring last Friday. Again, we're recording today on Thursday, February 5th. Last Friday, the market started to come down. There were some people who were some buyers that were, or some holders of metals that were eager to sell into that falling market. And I'm happy we were able to accommodate them. And it was great to get some physical products back in, into the inventories. And then this week we've seen silver, the price of silver move into the 85 and $75 range, basically bringing us back to where we were in the beginning of January. And you're starting to see massive buying again, people very excited to buy the dip. And I just think that this has always been the case that when there's action in the market, people get excited by the action and it propels them to do something. And I think ultimately, as our listeners and viewers are checking out this show today, I hope that they get a sense of excitement and positivity because in my mind, I think it's great. Whether you're buying it at 100 plus, whether you're buying it at $80 an ounce in silver, I think you're going to be happy that you have the physical product. What's your take on that?
- [02:27]
B
Very relevant. Today, gold and silver have taken the headlines. It's leading the headlines as far as asset allocation models are concerned. And the demand for precious metals has increased with New fundamentals. It's a paradigm shift away from the old hedging from risks to now growing, growing the industries, growing your portfolio with real assets, with real stuff that not just protect against inflation and the loss of your currency's purchasing power, which is the reason why. But you have a lot of buyers coming in excited, congratulations for securing your product. Even at 120 where we, where we peaked last week, a slight pullback again. We talked about at length on the Real Money show about the cycles. We have to use these cycles and it's important to know that we are currently still in the, the third cycle. The cycle has not been broken whatsoever. So having a pullback, it's reminiscent from the 70s and 2000s where we had 30, 50 pullbacks. Rick Rule reminded us that there were three 50 pullbacks during the 70s and where gold ended up, you know, in the average price performance in both cycles we ended up at over 1400%. So where we're headed, the forecasts are much higher. Nobody selling the physical. All of this is paper carnage. And we have to be reminded that this is the end of financialization or the limiting of financialization and the elimination of a lot of leverage. Leverage is being unwound. We're seeing that happen a lot of financial companies during the pullback last Friday where we had that 30, 40 drop in silver. It wasn't physical, but it was all the paper smash that was in gold and silver futures that were sold because gold and silver are liquid, even the paper stuff is liquid to raise cash to, you know, pay for the margin pay, pay for margin calls. But two banks in the States succumbed. There was the Metro Cap bank and Trust. There was another bank called First Independence bank. And there was it also the, the Chinese etf.
- [04:43]
A
Right? There was an exchange and apparently they had a vehicle that you could only go forward, future forward on. And it was all derivative on derivative. And there was no way to balance out your portfolio shorted. So they got, they got completely busted out from it. Actually, I also heard that on the Shanghai exchange that the, the regulators on the exchange caught some of the entities participating in this and stopped it. They said, no, we're not going to let you concentrate and short this market to this extent. So their regulators stepped in. We don't know where the regulators are for the, the comics, but the deliveries have been immense. The amount of paper that's being sold is immense. And ultimately this is all about paper, not about your physical metal. So let's jump into what we're seeing on the physical side of Things which can inform what's happening on the paper side.
- [05:40]
B
Yeah, there's a lot of news this week that came down the pike that involved critical minerals. That was a major headline to close out the year which helped Propel Gold higher 60% to the end of the year of 2025. And it was 160% up last year for silver, Silver being included in the Department of the Interior's critical minerals list. The last two minerals that were added to the list were uranium and lithium. And those minerals multiplied. So we anticipate the demand. This means the US can't sell now. They're, they're building this out now. So two things happened this week. The first was the announcement of Project Vault. Now, Project Vault, this is a massive addition for the United States. A lot of news this week came out and it had to do with the critical minerals list. Last year when we closed out the year, silver was included and in the critical minerals list. This list is published by the Department of the Interior and it highlights the minerals that are crucial for national security in the States. And silver was added. The last two minerals that were added were lithium and uranium, which multiplied in prices afterwards. So this tells us where we're headed, but they're securing it and now they're building this out. So this week the United States just launched, the Trump administration launched Project Vaults initiative announced just a couple days ago. It's a $12 billion strategic stockpile for critical minerals right here in the U.S. right here in North America, including silver and other minerals, other metals as well. And it's aimed at securing the supply chains for the US Manufacturing their build out of industries and reducing their reliance on imports.
- [07:31]
A
I think it's more than that. Let's roll the clip of Scott Bessant discussing it at the launch of the vault for the critical minerals stockpile.
- [07:43]
C
And a country does not have sovereignty if we don't have control of our critical minerals, don't have control of our steel production and our industrial base. And thanks to the work of everyone here through your leadership, this was a public private partnership that only you could have assembled. And we are taking back our sovereignty and we are going to have this Volt project, a strategic mineral reserve. And I can't tell you how innovative and exciting this is. And the level of security it is going to give us going forward is phenomenal.
- [08:19]
A
So right there, Scott Besant mentions sovereignty. And I think it's important at this point to point out that the idea is you have to have physical commodities running your economy. Right. And the next Day. Scott Besant. Not Scott Besson. Excuse me. No. J.D. vance had a speech, and in the speech, he was talking about the, the. The vault and the critical mineral stockpile. And he said, assets and commodity prices are persistently depressed, driven downward by forces beyond any individual country's control. Right. So at the, the conference for critical minerals, they were discussing basically the idea of coming together to make sure that there's a floor under the critical mineral prices. So when we put it together, you have that they want this stockpile that has nothing to do with the military, that it's just about industry, that they have this stockpile that they admit, as Scott Bessant said that. Or, sorry, as J.D. vance said, that that has been controlled and manipulated. The prices have been controlled and manipulated, and that they want to work to make sure that there's a floor under the pricing. So for me, as a, as someone who's been in the markets and watched the manipulation of the paper, and we're watching it right now, which let's, you know, let's. Let's call a spade a spade here, that looks like massive panic because what the administration is signaling here is that physical rules and industry, and when the paper markets are controlling and manipulating prices downward, it's. It's not contributing to the health of, of the economy.
- [10:02]
B
Correct.
- [10:03]
A
And you can see that in the sense of the difference between Wall street and Main Street. And as we've discussed for years, this idea of distortions in markets, and it just creates a lot of distortions. And so they're saying, look, we're not going to let you manipulate things anymore. Exactly. They're calling out the financiers. The financiers. And this seems to me that it's, okay, guys, we got to get out of this because they're going to come in and put floors under this. We don't. They're raising the white flag. Right. So what a tremendous opportunity in the market. Absolutely. When the paper slams are happening. And the last time this happened, back in 2020, we saw the price of silver go from about $21 an ounce, I believe, or 22, maybe slightly higher, down to $11 on paper.
- [10:47]
B
Right.
- [10:48]
A
But you couldn't actually buy physical metal for that price. The premiums jumped up to $17. Right.
- [10:54]
C
And.
- [10:55]
A
And that was in March of 2020. And by August, we were trading at $31 an ounce. So imagine what this could be like when the moves are much. We're at higher prices and the moves are bigger.
- [11:06]
B
Exactly. And we do it. We actually did see this Type of closure. The Perth Mint decided to shut down on Friday. They shut down their sales. They're like, you know, we have the product but at these paper prices we're not going to honor these prices. We're going to hold on to our stockpile. We're definitely.
- [11:25]
A
Well that's assuming that they have it. We don't even know if they have it. So what we're seeing around the world is we've seen Perth Mint shut down, Australian bullion dealers shut down. We saw premiums in Dubai go through the roof. We've seen a big bullion dealer in Switzerland completely out of stock. The market's basically going unobtainium here. So it's either the premiums are going through the roof as or paper prices are coming down or there's no product available. So, so why is it okay for anyone who's still worried about it, why is it that the price is coming down but there's no product available? Exactly that it people are demanding it and buying it and excited to buy on the dips here.
- [12:11]
B
This is.
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A
But somehow the price is coming down. We call that dislocation.
- [12:15]
B
Yeah, this is dislocation. This is not weakness in the physical market.
- [12:19]
A
It's.
- [12:19]
B
This is textbook bull market behavior. You have these pullbacks as I mentioned earlier in real bull runs these pullbacks are normal before the next leg higher and that's what's being forecasted. We have another, we have a report from Vince Lancy earlier today from Goldfix. You guys got to follow. But there was some news from Soc gen earlier. This is paper getting smashed. The physical stays tight, the premiums stay high, the prices start to diverge. Overseas the prices are 10, $20 higher overseas. Places that actually have the bullion that actually mine the stuff that actually have exchanges backed with physical. The days of London's, you know, London's and the LBMA's long standing paper control of our spot prices. Where we get that paper paper smash coming from London. You know having the US refer to the the term sovereignty away from London's long standing control mechanism. This paper price coming from London, things are shifting rapidly and this vault now in the US it's being built not on the backs of taxpayers and it's going to be built and I think the timing of it all. I talked previously and further and earlier episodes of the golden corridor which is the BRICS founding of this sort of an equator right across Africa all the way to the far east. It's gold vaults situated connected with technology on the blockchain. You Pledge your goal and you can bank. And I think the timing of it all, the US Is now set up to connect potentially. And I think this is going to be the new golden age that, that the Trump administration talks about.
- [14:08]
A
You know, that brings another point, which is the idea of irrelevancy. It appears as though the idea of a lot of these moves that they're making is to make the, the current construct of the financial world irrelevant. You know, you think about the Federal Reserve and their candidate for running the Reserve as chairman with war. The ideas. Yeah, moving, moving as well. More stuff to the Treasury. It's all about making things irrelevant. And you know, certainly with a lot of the Epstein stuff that's coming to light, you're kind of letting the, letting everyone work their way through it and find out what's real, what's not. But you start to see that a lot of these people are going to become irrelevant. Yes, right. And that's, that's worse than jail time. That's worse than jail time. So what's happening right now? I think the, the shot across the bow, really, with this stockpile, with what you're discussing, it's sort of coalescing here and it's really a massive shot across the bow to those who want to try to manipulate markets by using paper. When again, JD Vance has made it very clear he gets it, he understands it. The world needs actual goods, actual commodities to build things. And when you think about the amount of industry that is occurring, yeah, the, the investment is there, the factories are being built, they want to build things and they want to produce and that means jobs, that means a greater economy. And I think actually what's probably going to happen is the economic news will be too big to rig, though. They'll be having a tough time trying to convince people that it's bad news. And let's talk about that a little bit. Narratives. There's a lot of narratives that get thrown out during, during these kind of big moves that are happening in the markets. One was, well, they've, they've, you know, they, they want Warsh to be the, the chairman. That's the reason the silver's market falling. Get out of here. That is not the reason the price of silver is coming down at all. And then you hear these AI generated channels on YouTube giving absolute, complete misinformation. You have everyone going through, going, can't find it, can't find details on any of the things that these people are saying. You really want to stay with people who are real, who can cooperate the information, we don't always get it right. Not everyone always gets it right. But at least the intention isn't to put out misinformation and you don't know who, who to trust. You know, it's kind of similarly, you're finding more and more about, potentially about cryptocurrencies again through the Epstein stuff. We'll see how it pans out, see how it works out. But that they've had their hands all over it, controlling it. Whether the intention, what the intention was originally, who knows. But you know, the, that market's coming down. Is that part of what's happening in the, in the precious metals market? Maybe, maybe, you know, they're pulling their money out of this to cover margin calls on that. It's always a possibility. It's never just one thing.
- [17:20]
B
Right.
- [17:20]
A
But ultimately again, if there's no product available and we've been pretty lucky. But listen, Kilo bars, we spoke, we spoke to one of our dealers and they said in silver and they said no Kilo Bars till March. That's it. So what are we supposed to do for the next month, month and a half? Right. You're just going to see more of these dealers not having any product.
- [17:42]
B
Yep. Go with 100 ounce bars. Go with silver maples, just as liquid as the smaller stuff. And with Guild hall, we deliver that to you, you can come pick it up at the office. Put that in your RSPS to put that in your tfsa. Get it while you can. Because the rush for collateral is on. And with, you know, Bitcoin tanking below 70,000 now, ETFs, things are being sold off. Margin calls are going to, you know, rattle the markets. This is collateral stress. It's increasing globally. It's beyond the repo markets, it's beyond the Japanese carry trade. This is beyond unwind. The move towards real stuff is collateral. And that's the theme, that's the key word going forward for the next year, year and a half.
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A
A lot of words.
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B
Because. Yeah, because the U.S. treasury has to restabilize that U.S. dollar and moves like getting the vault set up. We're all leading back towards backing the US treasury and it's all about securing that dollar. Yes, war is a dollar hawk, but it doesn't mean you have to manipulate rates. You can regain credibility of the US dollar. How? What was the best way of regaining credibility? What was the best collateral ever in the US's history? Oh yeah, it was gold. And going back to the gold standard, there are two acts currently sitting at Congress right now, first is, you know, going back to a time where there was no Federal Reserve. HR25 is the first one to repeal the income tax. And then there's HR9145, which is the Gold Standard Restoration Act. These are the solutions. This is a solution to temper all of the worry, temper all of the collateral stress. This is the solution. You want to have that solution as well for your portfolio. But filter through the news, follow the trends. Don't get dissuaded with this $3,000 cash. And dealers have to report that's false and debunked. Many dealers across the North America, including us, are debunking it here. Once again, the AI Asian guy is spreading false information. So you want to stay.
- [19:44]
A
The question is why?
- [19:46]
B
I can get. I can put my t foil hat on.
- [19:48]
A
Go ahead.
- [19:49]
B
And a lot of you viewers on rebel news understand that the trucker convoys, there was freezing of bank accounts. And when they froze bank accounts, people wanted to get their money out left, right, and center. They were lined up at the office pulling out cash. It revealed the type of banking system that we have in North America, probably globally. It's fractional reserve banking. When you deposit a hundred dollars in that bank account, they take 99 of it, maybe higher, of your money, and they over and over again lend it out, lease it out. They use your collateral, your deposit over and over again. But when you want to take your money out, they're going to pay you with Jerry's money and they're going to.
- [20:30]
A
So why. Why did the AI Guy want.
- [20:32]
B
There was a lot of capital outflow from the banks. Okay, what's. What would be the mo. What would be his motive as to why he's not talking to Samsung? Samsung's already buying 2 million, 2 years out of silver. They need the silver regardless if it tanks or goes up. They're not talking to the industries because they're securing vaults. They're securing the project vault. They're securing their critical minerals. Silver's on that list. So they're not really talking to the industries or countries to just. He's not really addressing them. He's addressing you and I, people who bank at the banks. Right.
- [21:04]
A
Well, I just think that the only people that I've heard about this guy in particular, the only people who are really panicked are people who are watching him because of the misinformation. I don't, I don't get people who are, you know, following Rick Rule, as you mentioned, or Vince Lancy or Michael Oliver or, you know, Anyone? Peter Schiff, whatever. No. No one's calling us saying, he said this. I'm freaking out. It's people who are following. They don't know who they're following. It's some AI guy, right, that they're following. Look, at the end of the day, this is what's happening. The exchanges don't have any physical product. They're trying to get out of their paper short positions. JP Morgan already got out of their positions. These are the rest that are trying to get out of their positions. The rest is all machinations of a bull market. But here's what we know. There's 8 to 14 week delivery delays for physical product in London. There's more and more physical deliveries coming out of the exchanges or calling for delivery and they don't have the product. So they're going to try to get people out of that as much as possible. Physical demand is through the roof. You've got bullion dealers either just shutting, shuttering their doors or just. Or hiking premiums to crazy levels. Yeah. People ask, how's your inventory? It's hit or miss. Okay. It's hit or miss right now with registered accounts. Luckily we've done a great job of managing our inventory. I know for, for product at the vault. So people who want to own physical gold and silver in a registered account, we're doing pretty well on the inventory because we've prepared for this exact event. Smaller products, it's difficult. My understanding is that Royal Canadian Mint is moving from 100 ounce bars to 10 ounce bars in most of their production and refinery. But dislocations, collateral, as you mentioned, the physical market is going to rule the day. And we've seen these events before. You should be excited about them. We have a lot of people who've been very excited about them. And we feel going forward, what this means is much, much higher prices. And you have an administration that's saying we're not going to allow manipulation. We're going to set a floor for these things. So you guys can't do what you're doing because clearly the regulators aren't doing anything about it.
- [23:19]
B
Right.
- [23:20]
A
Final thoughts here.
- [23:21]
B
Jerry, how can you allow paper like you smash paper, silver and gold contracts to pay your margin calls. That's like, that's fake money that you're throwing to pay off a real world debt.
- [23:32]
A
Well, meanwhile, central banks are using fiat currency, printing fiat currency to buy gold left, right and center.
- [23:38]
B
Right.
- [23:39]
A
But where do they get the money for it?
- [23:40]
B
Yeah, the shenanigans will end and you know it this is why gold and silver are you know, disliked by dishonest men. We're going back to a world where we're building trust once again through mercantilism. On with, on technology that is transparent and we're leveling the playing fields. It's phenomenal to see. We're very excited about the future and you know who's excited about the future? This bank, JP Morgan Soc Gen Society General they just noted a massive in a note to their clients. This came out today. They noted a massive interest that just showed up on the desks up a deferred high strike call. It's an option that shows a $2,000 gold price within a year. A one year deferred high strike call. So the last time this is coming from gold fix. The last time a an option with expiry out of one year was launched in gold was July of 2025 last year.
- [24:44]
A
Summer.
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B
Yeah just one month before the August breakout of last year. So be very excited when these precursors are are found and you we have the information, we subscribe to goldfix to give you this information. We want to share this information with you. The market is very supported so be encouraged even if you bought a little higher we have to know and we ground ourselves with our. Why why are we converting out of fiat currencies? Because as Voltaire said all fiat currencies go back to their intrinsic value of zero and you do not want, you do not want to be have an asset that is denominated in a currency that is going down the Canadian dollar. If we go back to the way that they measured the CP lie back in 70s to 1980 the average rate of inflation was 8% as high as 12. If we go back to the way that they calculated inflation we're around 13% today. So understand that your currency is dying 13% year over year. The best way to get out of that is by converting out and into ounces.
- [25:47]
A
And look the, the banks for, for all this chicanery are still very positive on the metals you've got. JP Morgan is calling for higher prices. What did they see here? JP Morgan's calling between 6300 and 6900 this year. UBS 6200 Sogen which we just had the, that you were just talking about 6,000. And look these banks are always going to be conservative in their numbers. Now if you have the market going over $6,000 an ounce on gold and you're looking somewhere between a 40:35 to 1 ratio silver to gold to silver ratio. That puts silver back into the 160 range or higher. So Michael Oliver might be bang on with some exciting fireworks for the rest of the year. So it's only been a month. It's been, it's been crazy. Stick with us. We will weed through all the crazy in the market, but ultimately our goal is to help you to own physical gold and silver. We're, we're not advisors. We just, we're telling you what we're doing with our portfolios and we're telling you what's happening in the gold and silver market. However, if you want to own physical, physical gold and silver in a registered account, feel free to touch base with us@guildhall wealth.com. we'll show you how to do it. And it's always going to be fully allocated, segregated. It's always your product and you can go and touch it because remember, if you can't hold it, you don't own it. Thank you so much for joining us this week on the Real Money Show. Can't wait to speak to you soon.