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Why Silver’s Next Move Could Redefine Money, Markets, and National Security | SPONSOR
00:29:51
Silver’s explosive rise is not speculation — it’s the result of supply shortages, industrial demand, and the collapse of decades-old paper markets. As financialization unwinds, real metal is reclaiming its role as true collateral.
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Foreign.
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Welcome to the Real Money show, the 2026 first edition of the show. My name is Jeremy Wiseman. I am joined by Jerry Karia. How you doing, Jerry?
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Very good, Jeremy.
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How are you?
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Happy New Year, everyone.
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I'm doing great. Last year, let's just jump right into it, okay? Last year, silver was up over 160%. Gold was up 66%. You may not want to sell just yet. You may want to keep holding on to those metals. We'll tell you why. Basically right now, Jerry, we're seeing two things happening at once. A convergence of two major things in the market specifically related to the silver market. Which is one is you have a new manufacturing superpower coming online in the United States and they have signaled their intention. They, they, they are building factories and you're going to need stuff. So you no longer have just Asia, specifically China, building everything and, and absorbing all that silver. But you now have another powerhouse doing that. So you have tremendous demand for this product, this commodity that is already in deficit. We have a five year deficit in, in silver coming out of the ground versus the demand. Demand obviously is going to continue on the other end. We'll get more into detail on that on the other side. Converging with that demand industrially is a definancialization of the silver market and other markets in general, meaning the paper market can no longer control the physical market. As you know, the whistleblower Andrew McGuire used to say the tail can't wag the dog anymore because you have sovereign wealth funds and nations going in and saying, I, I'll take delivery. And so the paper trades who have had no product behind their paper have to scramble to somehow find it.
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And that's Buffett's price versus value.
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Price versus value. So now this isn't just new in the silver market. This is happening on a much grander scale as well. We'll get into the yen carry trade as an example of this sort of unwinding of financialization that's affected these markets for decades. And in the silver market, we have had five decades of basically price suppression. Same thing with the, the price of gold, you know, when you lift the gold standard. Why are you doing that? Because in my opinion, it's because you want to rob people through inflation. So the first thing you got to do is you got to take away their gold. You got to tell them it's a relic, it doesn't pay a dividend, it's volatile. You're crazy. Are you a gold bug? You know, worst case, like when all else Fails can't eat it. Yeah. When all else fails, start insulting them. But once you've gotten, once nobody has it, then you get inflation going. You call it 2% when it's probably more like 6 and you're robbing people without them really knowing. So people don't know the value of the dollar and after 50 years they don't even know the value of silver. So here we are today, we're getting price discovery in the silver market and we're going to go into details about all this. But you're getting price discovery in silver and people aren't sure what that actually looks like.
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We are definitely witnessing this is the most exciting story. I think it is a new price discovery and the process involving this discovery. We're going to see some volatility, ups and downs. You're going to see a lot of that happening, especially when you do have that yen carry trade unwinding. But we are seeing a moving away, talking about the price discovery. It's moving away from London's old mirage. And they were the factory of financialization because they understood that gold and silver are money. You know what is money? It's portable, divisible, durable, scarce and recognizable. Once you have the gold, you make a rule store value and a store of value. All of that to encompass Aristotle's store of value money. And when London had it, they can create financials off of it. And when we create financials, you have about four 100 to one 100 paper paper contracts for every one ounce of gold that is in existence. And for silver a whopping 400 for every 1 ounce of physical gold available. Eventually door comes knocking. People want to take delivery because people want to build stuff. They need that demand because these are converging assets, these are gold. Stepping into the industrial side of things, you have silver stepping back into the monetary re monetization, not just in industries. And look how quickly we're just advancing into this AI and chat tbt the advanced for physical. It's very refreshing. We moved away so quickly from this move away into not owning anything. Own the nft. You don't want to own the real thing, just own something that looks like it. No, eventually people look for the value, people need collateral. And that is the whole point of the yen carry trade unwind.
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Well, we'll get into the yen carry trade in just a moment but let's start with some forecasts for this year and then we can back it up with what's happening in the world to why we think those forecasts are Pretty accurate. The first was, was probably a big surprise from the, from bank of America, Michael Windmer. He says that silver could peak between 1:35 to $309 per ounce. And what was really interesting about that is a couple things. One, he's looking at the ratios, which is looking at value, not, not necessarily the price. He's saying, look, if, if silver reverts to the mean historically of 16 to 1, then at 16 to 1, you, you would see 30, $300 an ounce silver. If it reverted to a little higher of a ratio, then you'd be looking at 135. But here's what's interesting. Not only that he used that because that's not looking at charts, that's saying how much should silver buy me?
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Right, that's right.
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How many ounces of silver should it take to buy an ounce of gold? How many ounces of gold should it take to buy a house? Right. That's not price related, that's ounces. So gold and silver become the measuring tool. But what I found interesting about this is he's only basing this off of.
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Of gold to 5,000. That's what I thought. Right.
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So I mean, you don't want to go too far ahead of yourself because you say, well, what if gold went to 8,000? What does that number look like there?
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Well, that's what we do. We try to stay as conservative as possible. If it breaks that, great.
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Yeah. A lot of this is, is of course digesting those prices because it's not about the price specifically. It's about what it, what that metal should buy you. Right. And then there's, and then there's other things that come into play. So is the, is the demand and supply resolved? Right now we're sitting at 75. As we record the show today on Thursday the 8th, retail has been decimated. There's no product out there.
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Shortages abound.
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Shortages abound. And the price is, you know, $75 an ounce. There's still a deficit from the mining side. So supply, demand hasn't been resolved. And the expectation, as we said at the top of the show here, is that the US is going to be building a lot of factories and making a lot of stuff. So the demand is only set to go higher from here. So that has not been resolved.
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No.
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Inflation hasn't been resolved.
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And the supply and demand only set up. The silver being included in the critical minerals list. With the Department of the Interior in the US Having that designation as a critical mineral means that it is not just a National security issue. But they have to hoard it and stockpile it regardless of price. And this is a necessity in order to scale out, you know, your military advances. If you're thinking of expanding military which I think we're moving in the opposite direction. But AI technology we're seeing some leaps and bounds moves in technology that I could, you know thinking, thinking back I would have never thought we would have had this chat. GPT people are just talking to this machine, right.
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They're having a relationship.
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Relationship. It's crazy. But this is the importance and it's directly related to US security industrial supply chains and an advanced manufacturing well.
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And to. To extrapolate on that you now have the Department of Defense in conjunction with JP Morgan who have sold all their paper. They are buying physical. They're no longer shorting the market. They're so far not shorting the market. Jerry. That they are involved in helping create a smelting facility. Can you that in the United States to process silver.
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That comes in less than 24 hours after the US military escalation in in Venezuela they secured a strategic silver smelter deal designed to process up to $1 trillion in Latin American metals including Venezuelan supply. I've always thought okay there will be an argument for the reason why they went in was for oil. I thought the US is self sufficient in oil with Louisiana and the whole basin in Houston. But the silver. Knowing that a few days before the invasion or going into Venezuela China strategically halted exports of their silver. And that was a straight US national security attack. And they needed to secure the silver. It was a tit for tat. As soon as they got into Venezuela they, they inked this deal financed jointly backed by captured Wall street, captured JP Morgan go get this deal done. And it's backed 40% backed by the Department of Defense and the Department of War. So silver I think right now is on the. Is on the lead. I think the charge for in my opinion how important and how critical it is not just to the US but it's important for us. You want to get something that is going to be relevant not just for yourself but your portfolio. It's all about keeping yourself relevant. I mean your job could be eaten away eventually by AI. You may have to evolve and learn how to work with AI but when you have the stuff that is required to make AI like silver, tens of thousands of kilos. I don't know if you can imagine that but that's filling a Amazon sized warehouse full of mainframe computers and all that tech stuff filled with silver, you need to have the silver first to build out the AI.
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But you're talking about AI and then you're saying, well, there's the extraction side of it as well. And one of the things that we've talked a lot about is mercantilism as opposed to financialization of the world, which is more about extraction. And I think that's where as well some narratives get lost and there's a lot of people who will want to put narratives on top of what we're seeing here. But mercantilism is basically about saying, if you're Venezuela, for instance, that you should get to partake in the extractions of your commodities and partake in the value chain of those commodities reaching other nations. You know, if you ever, I don't know if you ever read the book Confessions of an Economic Hitman, but these are the things that they talked about in that book that he was confessing to that they would basically go in, you know, lumber, these nations with debt and then you would extract their resources and they wouldn't get to have any of the money.
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Right.
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And if all else fails, you know, you bring out the jackals and you get rid of their, their leader and you install someone else.
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Right.
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This was like what neocons would say, like we're bringing democracy to the world.
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Yes, yeah, exactly.
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This is not that. This is what we're seeing around the world is the idea of mercantilism, which is we're going to, we're going to make the money off of it. Like in Canada, we don't have a smelting, we don't refine silver, we. Or gold, we just, we take it out of the ground and we ship it somewhere else. Well, shouldn't you control that? What about lumber? Shouldn't you be able to create of your lumber, not just ship the raw material, these sorts of things. And that's really what we believe is happening around the world is a return to mercantilism which brings value and wealth back to people. So, you know, look, there are people as well. I just want to say one other thing on that. There are pundits out there talking about precious metals and they'll say, well, it's because there's a collapse of the financial system. We're not exactly negative in that way. We're looking at a more at more positive changes in the world. And when you do think about growth in industrial for silver technology etc, the demand on it, the re repricing of it. Right. Revaluing it, these are very Positive, exactly. Things to happen. And that's a really great reason to be owning something versus negative reasons.
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Yeah, there's going to be a lash out because there's what's happening. It's a replacement of what didn't work. We are being, this is a new system which has been kind of catapulted to the world with the BRICS formation, the Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa Union. Now you're cut, you're bringing in hundreds of other countries and they've created this corridor across Africa all the way to East Asia that is built on not just technology, we're talking the blockchain gold, fairness and mercantilism. Countries that were once subservient to IMF loans in Africa, you would never be able to pay off these debts. Now with this initiative, the BRICS corridor, you can now use the resources that you were blessed with and put them into the vault and get a loan off of your own resources. Get a loan off of gold. That is collateral. Why not silver as collateral like India has introduced? It's being reintroduced as the best collateral once again because that's the big problem. We're seeing this happen with the yen carry trade right now. Collateral stress is increasing and the US has to stabilize their treasury. Ultimately we're seeing a de dollarization because you don't trust paper. And the very collateral that backed the treasury was paper and therefore evolving away, just fiat from fiat notes but backed solely by promises and fiat back towards tier one capital. What Tier one capital is zero risk. The best collateral, it used to be Treasuries or gold. Well the Treasuries are bunk because the Treasuries are being dumped around the world. So it's gold. The best collateral always remains gold, which points towards a revaluation as well. So once you back up the treasury and this is the issue with the yen carry trade collateral, what's backing all of this?
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Yeah, so I wanted to get into the yen carry trade. So we discussed this quickly before we jumped on air, talking about what, what the unwinding of the carry trade is really signaling to the market. So I want to kind of connect the dots between unwinding of the paper markets in the LBMA and the demand for the real metal. Right. So now you have less financialization in the silver market, which means you get to find out what things are really worth.
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Right.
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And I think that that's sort of happening in the yen carry trade.
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Right.
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So talk to us about how unwinding that is, is, is helping to definancialize the world in that respect as well.
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So the yen carry trade. So my background being in currencies, the biggest currency pair would be the dollar yen, the yen for decades have had their interest rates subpar so into negative territory. And imagine that you get paid to borrow their money. Imagine that you could borrow the yen, whether it be, you know, the us, Britain, Korea, you could borrow and go invest it elsewhere. Imagine all of the bubbles that were created, real estate bubbles, stock bubbles. You could junk bonds, could you, you could buy whatever you wanted to it finance. Literally if you could think of a bubble, that's what the yen carry trade allowed.
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Could you borrow the yen to like just borrow it and end up using it to pay off people who wanted to buy their silver?
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You know what, it just opens the door to that. You're starting to get into areas of corruption, funding things that are nefarious. So we're really getting into the grounds of, you know, corruption. So this really cleans that up. You know. A good client of mine came in this week, Alex, and he's an accountant and financial planner and he likened it to just restitution. After World War II, Japan was forced to do this. Listen, you're going to be this Godzilla bank. But now after a significant meeting with Donald Trump, Japan said, you know what, we're gonna raise rates. Whoever borrowed well, we're gonna shore up that yen. The yen has to fly back into Japan. So what happened overnight? We're recording on Thursday what happened overnight was the Japanese 30 year bond skyrocketed to all time highs. We had over global margin calls. So the stock market ravage, gold and silver fell off as well. So you're going to see some volatility as this unwinds. Because if you think about it, we're talking about derivatives, right? This is a derivative play. This finance all of the derivatives and what Warren Buffett says, derivatives are the, you know, the, the financial weapons of mass destruction. So this has to be cleaned up. But you're going to go through some pains. This is a replacement of the old. Right. And reinstituting a sound monetary policy. I think we're going to go through some black swan type of, type of event, but it will reveal the solution. Where's the good collateral? We can't back up the debt with more debt. We can't back up the treasury with more paper. What's the best collateral? Do we have a solution? Did we have a bill in Congress? Yes, it's called the Gold Standard Restoration Act. It's sitting there. We get that back in. It's immediate. You revalue the price. And if you don't take, don't take it from me about gold revaluations. I want you to go to the Federal Reserve website, go to federalreserve.gov and you go to official reserve revaluations. And there you will see countries that in the past, about five countries in the past didn't have to sell their gold resources, they revalued that price. The treasury has an account called the gold revaluation account, same with Netherlands. And you could simply do that. We're talking about measuring up your assets to the 38.5 trillion in debt.
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And this kind of, you know, as you're saying this, you kind of start to see how it's coming together. You go, you've repressed the price of gold and silver. You financialized everything. So people don't really understand how big these bubbles are, are how big these weapons of mass destruction are. But when you're trying to unwind it, one of the ways you unwind it is you help, you help bring the collateral price way, way higher. Right. And it helps level out some of that volatility. In actual fact, even though the price might go up and down, but you know it, you think about it like you could try to fight to pay down the debt.
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Right.
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Or the equity goes up. Right, right. And if the collateral is rising significantly, you don't have to worry much about paying off debt.
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You're managing it, you're more than managing, you're ahead of the game. You can let those debts sit there and you can, you have the best collateral in the world. You have nothing to worry about. And just a quick reminder about the gold and silver. When you see a sell off, it's not what you think. It's not the physical that's being sold off, ladies and gentlemen. They're the ETFs, they're the futures contracts. That's all paper, paper, paper. They that are sitting. Yes, it's still liquid for now. This is what they've been using for decades to, you know, bail themselves out. Imagine that. I can, let's say I'm in. I have debt and I have a lot of debt trouble and financial issues and CRA is coming after me. Imagine I can pay off that with, with Canadian Tire money. No offense to Canadian Tire, I'm a big fan of Canadian Tire. But imagine being able to sell to cover a margin call with paper gold. Right, Right. This is what we're talking about here.
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Right?
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So the the, the, the financialization.
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No more spinning, no more juggling. They kicked the can down the road. The road came to an end. It's time to fix all these things.
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And our buddy David Bateman on the yen carry trade real quick.
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Okay.
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He goes, what would happen if the value of goods and oil deflated at the same time? The currency inflated so Japanese yen is going up, oil is going down. We're seeing a little bit of both inflation and deflation at the same time. Everything might seem normal for now. He says if bricks decrease their usage of the dollar at the same time, which is what's happening, you could probably unwind the carry trade without a liquidity collapse. The mirage could last for a while, but the tell would be a spike in precious metals followed by spike in the prices in broader commodities complex.
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Very quickly. Who's David Bateman for the audience that doesn't know?
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Oh, he's a tech genius, tech wizard. He founded Entrada, which is the world's, one of the world's largest property management softwares. He's also heavily involved in Natur foods and, and anti pharma. So he's, we were a big fan especially because he's into physical precious metals. He's moving away from all the paper and he's waking people up and, and, and not only highlighting the benefits.
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Bought like half a billion dollars worth one of the largest crazy amount of silver. And he did that at the beginning of last year.
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Right.
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So he's done tremendously well. And so you know he can back up his statements because he's put his money where his mouth is. Speaking of putting your money where your mouth is, I want to get to Michael Ol. Talking about at the top of the show we, we mentioned a forecast from bank of America that was just looking at gold, $5,000 an ounce. What would happen if, if the silver to gold ratio were to revert to a mean which by the way we have been seeing. So the trend is your friend in that respect. But Michael Oliver also has some forecasts now just to remind everyone you'll, you'll give his background of course, but he called for silver to get to $70 last year in July when I over was trading around $30 an ounce. So everyone including myself thought he was absolutely nuts. Turns out he wasn't crazy at all. So again like you might not want to sell your metal and if you're thinking about getting into the market when you're seeing numbers like 2 to $300 or where Michael Oliver sees it going, you may still Be early.
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Yeah, exactly. You haven't missed the boat at all. That's probably the number one question. Why should I be buying here? Why should I be buying at all time? Highs. The major thing what Michael Ol Oliver talks about or David Bateman talks about, you want to value your wealth right now in ounces because those currencies are being destroyed. The rate of inflation that Jeremy mentioned is 6%. I liken it more to 13 year over year. And that compounds you're. We're literally in a fight. So you have to get position in an asset that is not only safe, it's tier one. And that's going to grow for you more than the rate of inflation and even grow more than the withholding taxes or any income tax and just maintain your wealth, your standard of living. But we incorporated, you know the Michael Oliver's analysis. He has some tremendous stuff. His stuff has been reported on Wall Street Journal, Journal and some other major mainstream outlets. But his stuff is focused primarily on momentum, structural analysis. And you know when he said 72 by the year, year end, I mean we were still in the 30s. We didn't even break out at two all time highs which was at $49.
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And now he's forecasting for at this point he has a reasonable target he says of $144 an ounce. Within the next. Says within the next 55 months. I thought it was he was looking for, for sooner than that.
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Yeah, basically he goes I'm not crazy. Michael says 100 to 150 to $200 is not a problem. And if the magnitude slips it can go anywhere from $300 to $400. And he even mentioned 500. His logic is very simple. It's the magnitude of the move that matters. Remember he talk, he's talking about momentum and participation. And we're not talking about mom and pop buying silver. This is countries buying silver companies, Samsung buying silver. A very small little market that's not getting enough silver out of the ground by from the mines. So it doesn't have to stay here long is what he says. It has to go there for a minute. And this can happen within the next six months. So three to potentially $500 in six months. Again we're going to say he's crazy. But you know what? Last year we said he was crazy when he called 72 by year end. We stuck at 72 by year end.
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You know Jerry, sometimes when you aim for the stars you might just hit the moon. So look, there's a lot of things happening in the markets today we have the critical mineral designation from the US they're creating their own smelting capacity. 5 year deficit in silver. Some of these forecasts sound crazy, not when you start to put these numbers together as well as looking at, well, what's been resolved, Right. Has the supply demand been resolved? Do you feel like you have money in the bank? Do you feel like you can go out and spend money?
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Right.
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Do you feel like your money's going further? Are you getting a raise? These sorts of things like these are telltales as well that give you a sense that, yep, these have been resolved. Do you feel free to invest in the stock market? I mean, a lot of people that we speak to, they don't feel confident investing in the stock market. Perhaps when some of these factories are made and you can see the numbers and there's proof in the pudding, maybe they'll decide, yeah, I feel safe to do that.
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Right.
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We've always believed that people will at some point sell 2/3, 3/4 of their metals and still always want to hold some physical. So with that said, speaking of physical, with Guildhall, we do help clients to hold actual physical gold and silver. You can buy it direct with us. We also offer storage where you hold the product physically in your own sub account at Brinks. The bar numbers are listed. You get access to the vault to go and personally audit your holdings. You can take delivery anytime. So there's no obligation and there's no question of ownership. There's no counterparty risk. You maintain ownership of that product the whole time. Of course, it's fully secured, insured, and you can buy and sell on a phone call. And then of course, the number one vehicle that we offer is having physical gold and silver in a registered account. This just still blows my mind that we can offer this to people. But effectively you're holding your own physical gold and silver in a vault facility outside the banking system, but still within your rsp, your tfsa, your lira, lif and Riff. And at this time of year, we have a lot of clients who are taking delivery of their physical product as a withdrawal. Yes, they're taking in kind withdrawals. So they get to keep their metals as well as part of their, you know, 5, 6% withdraw that they're taking every year. It's been a, it was a tremendous year last year just seeing the amount of wealth that was created by holding these assets that were undervalued and still in our estimation, continue to be undervalued. So if you want to learn about holding physical gold and silver as part of your registered account or in your tfsa. We'd be happy to show you how. Jerry, you'll walk them through it as well as we close up the show. Any, any final thoughts?
- [27:50]
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Yeah, just be encouraged. If you haven't bought yet, get in touch. We love to just sit and chat. We are always welcome to the office. Coffee's always on. We love meeting new people. We love meeting people that watch Rebel News. We really support the the channel, the the team here. It's been a great run so far. We look forward to the growth. You haven't missed the boat. The precious metals market is now getting fired up. We are at the tail end of the third bull cycle. The growth fundamentals are here. It's not really just about protecting your wealth and safeguarding it. Yes. However, we're positioning for a life changing, a life changing experience not just with your lifestyle but with your portfolio where you can safely pass on your wealth, your generational wealth, pass it on to your kids. This is what it's about not just living for oneself. It's about your family and, and you know, I hope you had a great holiday. We, you know, we thank you for tuning in and supporting us. Reach out, give us a call 1 877-8-SOLVER and request your investor kit. We have these which we can email the email to you digitally. Check out the website guildhall wealth.com guildhall precious metals.com to buy some 10 ounce bars as they're still available. While they're still available. Set up alerts if you do want to set some targets. Talk to me about some downside targets. 75 was one which we redipped today and we're back up to 76. But we look forward to helping you out and all the best for 2026.
- [29:16]
B
And stay with us with the Real Money show going forward because we'll give you updates on what's happening in the gold and silver market so you can stay up to date and know exactly if it's time to continue to hold or maybe sell some at this point, maybe lighten the load. But we're very excited about 2026. We've got some great forecasts. I'm sure more are going to be coming forward so stay with us with the Real Money show. Jerry, thank you and want to thank everyone for joining us this week. We can't wait to speak to you next week here on the Real Money Show.