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Natalie
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Clayton
That's genius.
Natalie
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Clayton
We are uncomfortable as this war spirals out of control. Welcome in to the show. So glad to have all of you here. We've got a very special guest on the show today.
Natalie
That's right. You probably have seen him. Professor Jiang is coming to us from China, which is very exciting. He is the person who predicted that President Trump would win reelection, start a war with Iran, and that it would go badly for the United States. So he's batting a thousand. We're really excited to talk to him and talk about how not only how do we, but what do we do, you know, with as Americans, what do we do as citizens of the world? It's really frustrating. So we're excited to talk about this.
Clayton
Yeah, I mean. And what are his latest predictions on this? Now that we're about three and a half weeks or so into this conflict, where do things go from here? What is the plan to actually end this war now that thousands of Americans are being deployed to the region? Like we're told, no boots on the ground. And here we go, boots on the ground. So we'll talk about all of that. So we got a lot to get to today. Thank you guys so much for subscribing and being a part of our community here. We really appreciate it.
Natalie
It.
Clayton
So we're going to get to Professor Zhang in just a moment here.
Natalie
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Clayton
Well, the war against Iran has begun to spiral out of control, it would seem over the past few days, of course, we saw President Trump announcing that talks with Iran have gone very well after of course, a massive bombing campaign that was targeting their energy infrastructure. But then Iran responds and says that no, there were no talks with Trump and they claim that he retreated from the talks. But meanwhile, boots on the ground, thousands of marines being deployed to the region. This seems to be spiraling out of control. Professor Jiang on his substack, his predictive history substack wrote this, the U. S. Iran endgame. We are but three weeks into this senseless and pointless war and it seems certain now that the Americans will commit boots on the ground. The Pentagon is deploying an additional 5,000 troops to the Middle east and Netanyahu has reappeared to say that the war must be won on the ground, not from the air. Trump has asked for $200 billion from Congress, signaling that he intends to fight a long war. Well, we're thrilled now to have here on the show Professor Jiang. He's the author of Predictive history on substack. Welcome to redacted. Great to have you here.
Professor Jiang
Thanks so much, Clayton. I love your show.
Clayton
Well, it's our pleasure to have you here. So you know, those are your words just a few days ago on your sub stack, as you describe it, the senseless war and committing US Boots on The ground. It seems that that part of the story is ramping up while we get this. This rhetoric from the Trump administration that talks have gone great, we're about to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Nothing to see here. Don't worry about your energy prices. Where do things stand right now, in your estimation?
Professor Jiang
Right. So Trump, these past three weeks have been over the place. Every single day, he comes up with a new narrative. But the reality on the ground is that this war is following an escalation ladder. And it seems that by day, day by day, the escalation is getting worse and. And worse. So there's fear now that the Israelis will strike the power plants of Iran, which is targeting now the civilian infrastructure of Iran. Iran has stated that in public that if their power plants are attacked, then they will respond by targeting the energy infrastructure of the GCC and possibly the desalination plans as well. And so right now, the gcc, especially the uae, it's. They're facing an exoneration crisis. The UAE has doubled down and said that they themselves want to remove the Iranian threat once and for all. And Israelis are completely committed to the fight. So it seems like all the different actors want this to escalate.
Natalie
Now, you've become a bit of an Internet celebrity because you have this ability to see things at a higher level than the rest of us. So all the rest of us are like, oh, he said this. Maybe this is happening. And what about this? What do we think about this? You use game theory to understand it at a broader context, which I have found both comforting and terrifying at the same time. Can you respond to how the Internet has responded to you? You know, on a personal level, but then also, how are people actually then making choices in their lives based on what you say? Because I know for me, it's like, okay, we better, you know, think about what our plans are in our family. We better think about what is our emergency response. And so can you. Can you talk about some of the response to you and then also what's practical for the rest of us that are just watching this war in horror?
Professor Jiang
Yeah, sure. So for the past two years, I've been developing a new system of predictive modeling where I take game theory and I make predictions about how world events will turn out. And by making these predictions, I can better refine my game theory model. And so two years ago, I made three predictions. The first prediction is that Trump would win the 2024 general election, become the 47th president, United States. Second prediction is that he would initiate A war with Iran. And the third prediction is that the United States would lose this war, and ultimately this would reshape the global order. So I did this as a thought experiment. I'm just a high school teacher in China. I'm trying to get my students excited in learning. I'm trying to increase their critical thinking skills. I myself am curious about how the world works. So I developed this model, and to my surprise, it's actually panned out. And so I've received a lot of attention online. And there are two types of attention. The first is that there seems to be a coordinate spirit campaign against me, mainly by individuals who believe that I am maybe attacking Israel or threatening the Zionist project. And so there have been quite a number of very influential media figures that have come out and attacked me. I won't name their names, but everyone knows who they are. And it seems coordinated because it's the same talking points where they try to emulate me or try to satirize me by having a blackboard and then writing down some silly things and saying, hi, there you go. So they're trying to satirize my teaching style, and it all happened at once. So it seems coordinated to me. It's the same talking point where they think that I make make up this stuff on the fly. Okay, so that is the smear campaign, but there's also an organic anger directed at me. I think a lot of it is fear about how this world, how this war will turn out, and anger at the fact that I'm sort of using a tragedy, a global tragedy, to make a name for myself. And I'm sympathetic towards these people. I mean, there are quite a few people who I deeply admire. People like David Icke. You know, I've been following David Icke for a number of years, and he's been a deep inspiration to me. But he himself has criticized me for maybe being part of the deep state or being part of a conspiracy in order to push an agenda. Again, I'm just a random high school teacher in Beijing. I think a lot of it just comes from the confusion of how I was able to blow up so fast online. I myself am also confused by the attention I've been getting. You know, when I first started this YouTube channel, it was mainly to try to build a online community where I can exchange my ideas with others. And my wife and I were really optimistic about the potential for the YouTube channel. We were really thinking, like, you mean maybe in two months time or two years time, we have 5,000 members, and that'll be at 5,000 members now. It's over 2 million. So it's. I'm just flabbergasted by the attention. And I. And I. And I know that a lot of people who've been working in the space for a number of years, trying to educate and enlighten the public, people like David Icke, but also people like Jay Dyer there, they might be confused as to how this happened. I myself am confused as well. So. So. So I'm just trying make sense of what's happening, but it does.
Clayton
You're not. You're not part of the deep state. You're not part of some. I've seen some people being critical, saying, he's part of the Chinese Communist Party and therefore he has an agenda. He's not being critical of China, he's being critical of Israel. What do you say to that?
Professor Jiang
Okay, first of all, I've been very mute about China, and the reality is that I live and work in China. If I were to say anything offensive about China, then my school would get into a lot of trouble, and quite frankly, they might have to fire me. I have a family in China. I have three young kids. So I choose not to say anything offensive about China. Quite honestly, if I had nice things to say about China, I would say them because it would make me look good in China. And quite honestly, I could make quite a lot of money for myself if I became a fanboy of the Communist Party in China and parrot it, you know, commercial party talking points around the world. So. But. But I don't want to do that because I don't want to be a propagandist. I want to be an educator. So I've chosen to remain silent about China. So I think, like, the criticism of me about being mute, my criticism of the Chinese Communist Party is correct, but it's because. It's just because I'm working in the reality that is China. Okay. Yeah.
Clayton
Yeah. Well, thank you for that. And, yeah, I wanted to thank you for Natalie for bringing that up. And we wanted to address that kind of off the top, because I know you've been getting hit really hard with certain people on social media. So thank you for that. Can we talk about your predictive model, though? I want to get back to this war and what you're seeing play out here. I mean, forget like, Internet personalities, you know, criticize. I want to talk about there's thousands of people being killed in a war that is reshaping the global world order right now.
Natalie
And if I may, I'd like to add this because we also are parents of three. And when I watch your content, it seems very much not about what you want to happen because we also have three kids. This is not the world we want to leave them. You've said many times, I hope that I'm wrong. So I don't hear in your predictions a personal preference or a deep satisfaction of evil or anything. I mean, I feel kindred of the way we report news we hate. We don't like this, we don't want it to be this way. But if you could tell us, give it to us straight how you see it, and we'll put aside how we feel about what we want to happen.
Professor Jiang
Yeah. So thank you so much for that, Natalie. So, you know, when my predictions are not correct, you know, on, on February 28th, the Americans and Israelis attacked Tehran and has launched the war, the war that we are in now. I couldn't sleep for two weeks. You know, I mean, my prediction had panned out, but I was angry, I was frustrated, I was anxious because as you point out, I have three kids and I want a better future for them. But as a parent, I also have a responsibility to be truthful to them and to work hard to build, to build a better future. So my hope is that if this predictive model is correct and people start to adopt this predictive model, then that gives us more agency over human events and this allows our children to build a better world. And that's what drives me, my love for my children, my desire to bequest to them a better world that, that they have agency over. So, you know, we have 8 billion people in this world and most people don't know what's going on and they choose to put their head in the sand. And what I'm trying to do, my YouTube channel is trying to say to people that you do matter and your choices will affect the outcome of, of the, of the world. And so we need to educate ourselves. We need to focus on what we can do. And just by doing these two simple things, we can change the world for the better. So that's what motivates me. So as for my predictive model, um, I used three mechanisms. Okay? So the first is game theory. And the idea of game theory is I assume that you have these different players in the world, so United States, Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, uae and they have different interests and they have different strengths and they are going to look for an optimal strategy in order to advance their interests. So as we know, a lot of what's happening, happening in The Middle east is driven by Israel's desire to achieve the Greater Israel Project that, you know, right now Israel is being dominated by religious fanatics who believe that it is their guardian right to control all the land from the Nile to the Euphrates. And that's why we're seeing this war in the Middle East. And because of Israel's aggression, Iran has to respond a certain way. The United States is drawn into this war and the United States is drawn in. And the United States has to respond in a certain way. So that's game theory. The problem with game theory is often you're not allowed information or you don't have the access to information of the key players. You don't know how they're thinking. You just make assumptions. So you need other mechanisms in order to validate your theory. These two other mechanisms are historical patterns and eschatology. Historical patterns just means can we think about previous wars and compare, contrast how this war, war will play out based on previous wars? And so what I've done is I've looked at the Vietnam War, I've looked at the Pellvision war where Athens invaded Sicily, I've looked at the Nazi Germany invasion of Russia. And by looking at these wars, I'm able to figure out how this war might progress. And the third mechanism is eschatology, which is to say that the people involved, whether it's Iranians or the Israelis or the Americans, these are very religious people who believe that they're doing this for God, they're doing this to build a better world. And so once you understand their eschatology, once you understand the religious worldview, you can better understand their motivations and a strategy moving forward. So then you have like three, three different strands, right? You have game theory, eschatology and historical patterning. And if you're able to figure out where these three converge together, you are then able to make accurate predictions about how things should progress.
Clayton
Now you've said Iran's edge in all of this, I believe, and if I'm misquoting you, please forgive me, is escalation control. So we were talking about the escalation ladder. Maybe you can lay that out because I think it's very. When people see that ladder, the escalation war ladder, we've seen it all before. We've seen it play out in Iraq, we've seen it play out in Afghanistan. And I saw a meme this weekend where someone said, Clayton, you know, the problem with three day wars is that they tend to last five years. And I thought that Just that just really hit it. So anyway, you make the point that Iran has been able to control the escalation. Control, what exactly does that mean in terms of the United States and Israel's political plan to actually escalate this war?
Professor Jiang
Right. So the escalation ladder is just the idea that once you start a fight, it develops its own momentum, its own logic. You can't really stop it. So no two guys go into an argument thinking that they will actually exchange punches. But what happens is they argue, then they get emotional, they push each other, then they hit each other, pull a knife, then they pull a gun. Okay, so this idea of escalation ladder, now according to this theory, the United States and Israel have isolation, dominance because they can move up far higher than Iran in the escalation ladder because the United States and Israel have access to nuclear weapons. Right? And Iran doesn't. So in theory, the United States and Israel have, have more options than Iran. But if you've ever been in a fight, what you recognize is that the weaker opponent is far, is forced to be more strategic to, to be much more flexible, have more control over the situation. So I did a lot of jiu jitsu before, and in bridging jiu jitsu, it's all about maintaining calm, maintaining control. And if you are able to maintain calm control, you can even defeat a bigger opponent who are stronger and heavier than you are. So what we're seeing in this war is the Iranians are able to calibrate the strategy far more effectively than the Israelis and the Americans. The Americans use something called shock and all strategy where they go and blow things up, right? So the Israelis, if they want to assassinate the Alato, Khamenei or Alijani, what they do is blow up 10 blocks. Okay? It's devastating, but it's effective. It's blunt. The Iranians on the hand are able to calibrate their strikes. So like if they're able to target a, perhaps a military base in Bharat, they're able to target Mossad center in Israel. And so by doing that, what is, what Iran is able to demonstrate is confidence in its arsenal. It's able to maintain diplomacy, political diplomacy, as well as global public opinion. They're also able to divide and conquer the allies, right? So they don't want the entire GCC teaming up with Israel and the United States. So they just want to target specific areas. So for example, military bases. They don't actually want to target energy infrastructure because then that might cause Saudi Arabia to create war on Iran. So what we're seeing these past few weeks is whereas Israel and the United States are choosing a blunt instrument. Shock and awe just blow things up. The Iranians are being very strategic. They're being very calculating. Another example, of course, is the shot of Hormuz, where Iran is able to determine who's able to pass through the shirt of Hormuz, therefore not impacting the global economy as much as I could.
Natalie
Now, what's frustrating for me is that the United States and Israel can escalate in these horrific ways, and there's no international consequences. So they can destroy Gaza en masse, they can hit a school of young girls, and there's no consequence for it. So as an American, it's infuriating because there should be some consequences so that we never do this again, and the world is letting us. And I'm very confused why that is. So can you explain that variable in your game theory?
Professor Jiang
Right, so there is actually a major consequence. A major consequence is the morale of your population, which affects your will to fight. Right? So if people believe that it is a good cause, they are willing to commit themselves to the fight. They're willing to make sacrifices necessary to win the war. Right. So what we're seeing is, look, these soldiers, these American soldiers are not enthusiastic about this war. There were these American commanders who told their soldiers that this war against Iran is because God ordained Trump to achieve the second coming of Jesus. And what you had was dozens of complaints filed against these commanders. You're seeing fires break out, and in Gerald R. Ford supercarrier, Right? So Gerald R. Ford supercarrier came into the theater hoping to have a major impact, and then a fire broke out, and then the zero Ford is now forced to retreat back into the Mediterranean. And apparently the rumor is the Gerald Fort is now out of commission for the next two years because. Because the damage was so extensive. And the theory is there's an investigation as to whether the sailors deliberately set fire in a laundry room to make. To decapitate the supercarrier. Okay, so you're seeing low morale among American soldiers. First day of the war, what happened? All the American soldiers changing the civilian clothes and then fled into hotels. Popular opinion in America, only about 40% of the population support this war, and this is the lowest support in the past 20, 30 years. So the consequence of not having a strategy, of not having a purpose, of not having rationale, means low morale among your population. And this is important because eventually, if Trump wants to win this war, he needs a ground invasion. And already we're seeing 5,000 additional troops being deployed to the Persian Gulf. And a lot of people assume they're planning an amphibious landing somewhere, possibly Cork island, but also possibly a naval base in the southeast of Iraq. Once you commit the ground invasion, then you're going to have a popular uprising throughout America. You know, once you have this social media footage of Marines getting killed in Iran for no particular reason, I mean, Americans don't want to die for Epstein or Israel, right? So there's a tremendous consequence to what the Americans are doing right now.
Clayton
Let's talk about this air power, because you've been critical of, I think you've referred to it as the inverted pyramid, where the United States really relies on air power more than anything, whether it's drones, whether it's with fighter jets. But Iran, as Netanyahu has said, will need to have boots on the ground in order for there to be an effective regime change. So these seem it really across purposes. And then you mentioned 5,000 Marines being. There's a really massive buildup now of UF forces heading to that region. It seems inevitable. I hate to say it, but it seems inevitable,
Professor Jiang
right? So if you want to win this war, what you do is you spend two years to stage 2 million troops around Iran. Okay? So you have 500,000 troops in Pakistan ready to assault from southeast from the southeast corner. You have another million in Iraq coming from that border. And then you have another 500,000 maybe in Azerbaijan coming in from the north. Okay, you need about two years because you need to stockpile ammunition to train the soldiers to have the order of battle ready. If you want to win a war, you actually do it that way. The problem is that America has not fought a real war ever since Vietnam 2003. The war against Iraq was not a real war because Saddam Hussein didn't have any air defense. He basically gave up even before the war began because he assumed that Americans would not be stupid enough to invade Iraq because that would make Iran the regional power. Right, Because Iraq was a balance to Iran, so somehow miscalculated. So the problem with the American military machine is that it's run by the military industrial complex. And this is, this is something that Eisenhower warned about in his farewell speech, right, where he said that there's now this massive military bureaucracy that is independent of, of oversight, that does not factor in the best interest of a nation that doesn't really care about popular opinion. And all they're interested in is creating as many advanced weapons system as possible in order to basically steal from American taxpayer. And then Starting these wars for no particular reason. You know, Julian Assange said it best. Where the point of the war on terror is not to have successful wars, but have never ending wars, where the military industrial complex can steal as much as it wants from the American taxpayer. And so what we're seeing in Iran is the failure of the military industrial complex to prepare for a modern war where your opponent is willing to fight back asymmetrically. Right? So we see these air defense systems, the Patriot system, the Thaad system, they don't really work. Even Israel's vaunted Iron Dome systems, David, they don't work either. The Iranians now have, are now able to strike at will against Tel Aviv. So air defense doesn't really work. Then you have these super carriers, Abraham Lincoln, Gerald Ford. Gerald ford cost, cost $13 billion. And when they came into a theater, they recognized that, wow, we could be hit by drones and missiles. So they ran away. They're not, they're not actually in this war. I mean, they're just flexing and then, and then you have these jets like the F35. The F35 cost $100 million each. It took about 20, 26 years to develop. And it had stealth technology. This is the most advanced jet entire world.
Clayton
Yeah, we were told it was unhittable. Unhittable, yes, exactly.
Professor Jiang
And the arenas hit them with like pretty limited radar. So it just shows you the corruption of the military industrial complex right now in the United States. And it shows you how the United States is not ready for this war at all.
Natalie
Let's take a quick break and then I want to ask you more about game theory. In specific, your prediction about the United States eventually losing this war. So we'll be back in just a moment.
Clayton
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Natalie
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Professor Jiang
Right. So the key piece of evidence is 20 years ago, about 2002, the American military, the Pentagon, ran a war game called the Millennium Challenge. The Millennium Challenge. And the idea is to look at how America could defeat Iran in a war. And so what they did was they asked this admiral to fight on the side of Iranians and asked this admiral to figure out a strategy that could defeat the invincible American empire. And so in the first iteration, what the admiral did was he used drone swarms. Okay? So these are cheap, you know, drones that attack all at once. And it overwhelms the defense systems of this, of the carriers and the destroyers. And in this iteration, the Iranians won. And so they ran this multiple times until finally what happened was the Pentagon basically restricted the strategy of the Iranians, basically saying, you can't use drones, you can't fight back, you can't cheat, you can't fight asymmetrically. And then in that iteration, in the final iteration, the Pentagon won. Okay, so this shows you two things. The first thing is that the Pentagon is not ready to fight a war eccentrically. It doesn't have the creativity, it doesn't have the resilience. It doesn't have the flexibility. The second thing is the Pentagon has become this bureaucracy where it doesn't really want bad news. It doesn't want to omit its limitations. And so it's going to shape reality. In a way that conforms to its expectations. And so that's one piece of evidence. Another piece of evidence is Operation Prosperity Guardian, where the Houthis, in response to the genocide in Gaza, was disrupting Red Sea shipping. And so the Americans sent this massive naval armada to stop the Houthis. Right. I'm sure you've seen this video footage of like this massive Amarta, and it didn't do anything. They kept on hitting the Houthis. The Houthis hid in their mountains and the Houthis refused to surrender. And the Americans didn't know what to do because they were so used to being able to scare their opponents, to bribe them, to intimidate them, to co opt them, to assassinate them. And the Houthis were, you know, refused to surrender. They were not afraid to die, and they could not be blackmailed. And so what happened was the Americans were forced to retreat. Now, I saw a YouTube video where these different admirals got together and discussed Operation Prosperity Guardian. And basically, to put it in very simply, what they said was, we lost against the Houthis, we made a lot of mistakes, but we don't know how to beat them. But if you ask us to do it again, we'll use the same strategy because we don't know what else to do. That's that. That's basically the Pentagon. And so we're seeing this play out right now in Iran, where these strategies don't really work. These past three weeks have shown shotgun awe. Doesn't really work, but they don't know what else to do, so they keep on doing it. And now what they're doing is they're thinking about sending the Marines in for an amphibious landing, because that's just what you do. Even though every military analyst you talk to will tell you that this is a suicide mission. But unfortunately, once you commit to a war, the war achieves a momentum and a logic all of its own. And this is what happened in Vietnam, where in 1965, 1966, the Americans basically knew they could not defeat this insurgency in South Vietnam, but they didn't want to give up because of credibility or face. Right. They don't look bad in front of the world. And so we're seeing a similar situation where if the Americans were to retreat, well, I mean, the entire world would just laugh at Trump. I mean, the entire world would no longer see America as a empire, as invincible. And the Pentagon could not really countenance this possibility. So what they'll do is they'll double down. It's very much like going to casino, you know, losing million dollars and then you're stuck. It's a sun cost fallacy where, you know, you either stay or stay and try to gamble back your money or you go home and like have to tell your wife what happened. Right.
Natalie
Can I just stay on this issue of morale? Before you change the subject, one more question about that. Because it feels like it doesn't matter that we're also upset about the war. But you're saying it does. But on the other side, Arab. Many Arab countries do have something to fight for, specifically the Palestinians, specifically the Iranians, living as a Palestinian in Gaza under constant surveillance where the Israelis can kill you and rape you at will, lock you in Gaza. You're waiting decades for a right of return and living in utter poverty and misery. To them, the stakes are utterly existential. So anyone aligned with them has nothing to lose. So they do have moral support, whereas the rest of us don't. Can you explain how that plays into their. Because there's. If they lose, they're all wiped out. There's nothing. I mean, I just finished Ramsey Barood's book over the weekend. And the way that the Palestinians in Gaza have been living for decades is horrific. And those are stories that are not told to us. But it's very motivating to them.
Professor Jiang
Yeah, look, I think that the Iranians have extremely high morale. And the reason why is they think they are on the side of truth. You know, what people forget about the Iranians is that these are the Persians. And the Persians have a ramp up for about 3,000 years. And the Persians were originally Zoroastrians. And Zoroastrians were the first eschatological people in that they believe that they are here to serve the will of God and to bring about a just world. And so they believe, like, if you live a life of truth, if you fight for what is good, then you make the world a better place. And you know, and that's why the Iranians refuse to do a preemptive strike. You know, there are a lot of people telling Iranians, you know what, the Americans are going to come anyway. The Israelis are going to come anyway. Take the initiative, you know, set the contours of this war. But the Persian people are like, no, we have to live the truth. We refuse to submit to the lie. So if they attack us, we'll fight back. But we will, we will never ever be the aggressor. We will never, ever choose the path of violence. We choose the path of right. And you know, when, when you do that when you submit yourself to the will of God, when you commit yourself to righteousness, there's an inner fire in you that allows you to surmount all obstacles, that gives you faith in the most darkest times. And you can see that in Iran, where, you know, they're being devastated. In the first week, they really struck an oil depot in Tehran, and so the entire sky was black, but inside, there's a light shining in the Iranian people. And that's what happens when you fight a war for a good cause as opposed to a bad cause.
Clayton
You brought up David Icke earlier, and we're big fans of David Icke here on this show. He's been a guest a number of times. One of the things that he's been saying is that this Iranian war, this collapse of Iran, et cetera, has been planned for a long time. I mean, this is many, many decades, as you pointed out the war games that they were playing at the Pentagon many decades ago. But this is all part of a plan, a broader plan. And his argument is, of course, that Trump is just like a pawn in this cultist's chessboard, ushering in this new era of AI and control, and we will lose more rights. I mean, I just did a video this weekend about this very same thing. This idea that they will take away our control, they will take away our ability to transact. AI will have this biological connection now to the human brain. They are issuing in this, ushering in this new era of control, just like the Patriot Act. So we can get all into the finite details about air power and this drone struck, this particular oil plant and this. But really, it's part of a larger game. Do you see it that way?
Professor Jiang
Yeah, I mean, I completely agree with David Icke's assessment. I think this is the future we're heading towards. My main issue with David Icke is, is that he thinks this is all deliberate. This is all scripted, this is all planned. And it's true that certain people have planned this out. These are occultists. These are people who have been studying Kabbalah and meditating on the state of the state of the world for many, many decades. And they have foreseen these events turn out. But to say that this is all scripted really doesn't take into account the agency of certain individuals. So to say, like this will ultimately lead to a certain series of events. I agree with. I think this will lead to digital currency. I think this will lead to an AI surveillance control grid. I think this will lead to a collapse of the global economy. I think this will lead to a reset. I think this will lead to the Greater Israel project. So on where the world is heading, I agree with David Ike, but. But I will also point out that according to game theory, we cannot discount certain players in this game. So, for example, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are major players in this game and their interests are not actually aligned with the interests of the global elite. Yes, the global elite has a certain plan for us, and this war is meant to achieve this plan. But Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump may have other plans as well. And what we're seeing is really the scripting played out, but also a response to this script. So I don't think. I don't think things will work out as seamlessly as people predict.
Clayton
Yeah, no, I see what you mean. And I think you're spot on with that because there are individual players in this that have agency and can manipulate. There is a broader framework, whatever you want to call it, the. This 2030 Agenda, more broadly, control grid, et cetera, digital currency. They want massive control of all of us. And really COVID 19, of course, was the trial run to see how far they could push us into these lockdowns. Do you believe that we are heading into a massive energy lockdown, the likes of which we've never seen before? Even eclipsing what we saw with COVID 19, you're already seeing obviously in Southeast Asia. You talked about Thailand in your interview with Tucker. Thailand already on fuel restrictions and telling people to stay home. They've, I think, declared a state of emergency, Vietnam and other countries as well. So do you think we are heading for a massive lockdown?
Professor Jiang
I actually think the real issue that the elite, global elite need to resolve is the financial system. Meaning, like over the past 10, 20 years, they printed too much money and there are too many individuals who are millionaires. And this is causing a lot of problems for the global economy. And so what you need to do is basically destroy a lot of this wealth. And there are different options that they can use to destroy this wealth. A civil war in America would do it. A false flag attack on financial data centers where a lot of wealth is wiped out will also work. And then you can blame this false flag on Iran and therefore muster public support for a national draft. So. So I think like their priority is not necessarily to lock the country down, but to try to destroy as much excess wealth as possible from the system in order to better regulate individuals.
Clayton
That's terrifying. I mean, yeah, maybe not the lockdown in the COVID sense of the term. But locking us down financially by wiping out huge stores of value. That's absolutely terrifying.
Natalie
Yes. I do want to talk about these dark forces a little bit more, because the Epstein class is clearly a real thing. And how much of the Epstein class do you think is just that they're satanic perverts doing things for their own satisfaction and that it does promote a war? Is it a chess piece to move around? I have you as someone who eats babies. Therefore you must give me the war that I wanted. What do you think of that? Because you talk a lot about the Epstein class. Was it real in the way that most of us see now from the public documents? What have we not seen and how is it operating still? Because it clearly didn't die with Epstein. Die with Epstein, Yeah.
Professor Jiang
So, yep, in class, I think people focus on the wrong thing, which is to focus on Pizza Gate. Right. They focus on the idea that Epstein was talking about, like, beef jerky pizza and grape soda. And that's what captivates the people's imagination. But I think that's not really the point. Okay. And what I mean by that is, we think that, you know, Jeffrey Epstein was running a blackmail operation and using Epstein island in order to gather compromising material on powerful individuals like Bill Clinton and Bill Gates. I think Epstein island was just a weekend getaway. It's just what he did for fun. As you look at the Epstein files and you track what he was doing. Well, he was basically an operative for the global elite and trying to manufacture geopolitical events in a certain way that most benefit. Benefit the global elite. Right. So he was involved in the great financial crisis of 2008. He was probably involved in 9 11, even though we don't have the emails that confirm this. But a lot of. If you just connect the dots, it suggests that he was in certain way involved in 9 11. You know, he was a neighbor to Howard Ludnick in Manhattan. Right. So. And they were neighbors, and their numbers were 9 and 11. So is this all coincidence? You know, I mean, like, I don't know, but so what I will say is this. If you just look at the Epstein files and you try to reconstruct how he was making his money and what his real job was. Well, he was mainly engaged in arms trafficking, money laundering, and geopolitical manipulation and that. And so he was basically an operative, and the money was just something that he did. I mean, it was not a concern. I mean, this. Where Bill Gates and Reid Hoffman, these are billionaires, when they were asked, why do you associate with Epstein. And their response was, well, we wanted money from him, right? So these are billionaires trying to beg Epstein for money. So something's wrong with our current conception of the world. And so what I will say is there is a transnational elite that is above the nation state, that is able to manipulate the nation state. And this transnational elite is able to manipulate geopolitical events in a certain way that maximizes their benefit. Okay. And we can speculate as to who these, who this transnational elite are. But I will say that there are an alliance between three forces. Okay? These three forces are transnational, capital city of London, Wall street, secret societies, Jesuits, Shabbat, Lubovitch, 17 Francis, Freemasons, Rosicrucians. And then you have these elite families called the 13 families that apparently control the world. Okay? So I would say Epstein was one of these people from an elite family. And if you look at his emails, what it will say is there were three major Jewish families in Europe. They were the Rothschilds, the Epstein's and the Gutmans. And he said, he told Peter Thiel, I represent the Rothschilds. And what he's really saying is I represent a collection of transnational capital that is able to influence geopolitical events. So I think that is what what the Epstein class is. The Epstein class are parasites on the nation state and they manipulate geopolitical events in a certain way that most benefits them.
Clayton
You know, Joe Kent, last week, I think it was last week. Now time is flying. So quickly resigned from the Trump administration, basically trying to prevent this war in Iran. He says that everybody, all of the intelligence agencies have confirmed that Iran did not have nuclear ambitions, they were not building nuclear weapons. President Trump just on Monday comes out and says the whole reason we're having these negotiations, no more wars, and we will not allow Iran to get those nuclear weapons. So there seems to be this massive disconnect. Joe Kent posted this. I just want to read it to you. He said step one in de escalation must be restraining the Israelis. Otherwise all efforts to negotiate will follow this pattern. Well, President of the United States will announce a de escalation and then Israel launches some major attack on oil infrastructure or desalinization plants. And that's what we've seen now repeatedly in these past few weeks, is that the United States says one, one thing, and then the Israelis go around quickly and launch some sort of attack on Iranian infrastructure. Like you mentioned, the oil and the black cloud hanging over Tehran. So do you agree with Joe Kent that really the only way to de escalate is to reign in the Israelis.
Professor Jiang
I completely agree with this assessment. So in the early days of the war, on the first day a drone struck the Saudi Arabia facility in Saudi Arabia. And we assumed at first that was Iranians. But later it was reported that actually this drone was coming in from Lebanon. So the Iranians launched a drone from Lebanon. Right. So people speculate that this was initially a false flag to force Saudi Arabia into the war as quickly as possible. Tyler Carlson himself reported that he was told by confidential sources that the Qataris had arrested two Mossad agents who they suspected of sabotaging of doing a sabotage operation in Qatar. Later the Qataris denied this, but you know, this fits very much the Mossad MO. Recently there was a long range missile strike on Diego Garcia and at first people were bewildered because we just assumed this was beyond the range of Iran's ballistic missiles. But now it's been reported that actually these missiles were fired from an Israeli submarine. So it is in the best interest, according to game theory, for Israel to drag this war out as much as possible and drag in as many players as possible. Ideally, Israel also wants to drag in Saudi Arabia, uae, Turkey and Pakistan as well because from their perspective this war is the best opportunity they have to achieve the Greater Israel project. If they destroy the gdc, if they destroy Iran, then they are the only regional power left standing and that is their ambition. But also.
Clayton
Sorry, no, go ahead.
Professor Jiang
Yeah, but, but, but I will also add some nuance to this where the Iranians do not actually want this war to end as well because for the past few decades they've been under tremendous sanctions and they want to, they want sanctions relief and they recognize that if they are to rebuild and modernize and further protect themselves, they need to accomplish certain things. The first thing they need to do is establish control over the strip of Hormuz. And that will be the main economic lifeline where they can charge a 10% toll on any passage for the Strait of Hormuz. So that's number one. Number two is they need to eliminate the American military presence in the gcc. So they need to America out of the Middle East. The third thing they need to do is establish credibility, meaning they need to do enough damage to Israel so that Israel will force the will be forced to be respectful towards Iran and then Israel and Iran can come to a peace treaty once the United States leaves. So that's really the long term ambition of Iran as well.
Natalie
Is that doable that Israel will ever submit to the greater good of other countries?
Professor Jiang
Right. So if you look at the Greater Israel Project, it's very clear that it extends from the Nile to the Euphrates. It does not include Persia. Israel is not actually interested in Persia. So according to game theory, what Israel wants to do is knock out both the GCC and the United States. So people don't, don't really understand this where people think that Israel's main objective is to knock out Iran. No, actually Israel sees America as the main threat. There's a video, viral video of Netanyahu, and a journalist asked him, what book are you reading right now? Mr. Netanyahu responds, I'm reading a book called Rome versus the Jews by Barry Strauss. And this. And the book is about these three wars fought between the Romans and the Jews in the first century. And these were like brutal wars that wiped out most of the Jewish population in Europe at that time. And so the journalist then asked Netanyahu, why are you reading this book? And Nanyahu's response was, well, it didn't work out great for us the first time. Okay, so this is how the Israelis think. They understand, like their main competitor in the Middle east is actually not Iran, but actually United States. So this war is meant to actually destroy the American military presence in the Middle East.
Clayton
Sit on that for. I mean, yeah, just.
Natalie
Yeah, it's very much like Game of Thrones. I keep mentioning there's this Littlefinger character who is befriending these leaders and then leading them and advising them into their own self destruction. If you know, Game of Thrones, that would make sense. And so I guess my question is, and it's not, you know, the people of Israel, it's the leaders of Israel who want this. These are, in my estimation, the bad guys. Is there any scenario in your game theory where the bad guys are punished and stop it? I know that's simplistic, but it's like what I pray for.
Professor Jiang
Look, there's a lot of agency and Donald Trump could come to Jesus moment and he strikes a deal with the Iranians and he restricts the Israelis. Right. So Donald Trump says, for the greater good, I'm going to strike a deal with the GCC and Iran and we're going to limit Israel. Now, Israel has nuclear weapons, so you can't attack Israel. But what the United States can do is we're going to pass laws that say you cannot be a dual citizen and sit in the US Congress. You cannot be a dual citizen and work in the national security apparatus of America. And we're not, we're not going to sell weapons to Israel and we're not, we're not going to finance the military activities of, of Israel. I mean, the reality is the Israelis have free health care and a lot of this being financed by Americans who do not have free health care, by the way.
Natalie
Yeah, we know this.
Clayton
Yeah, exactly. And their, and they have a space program. Like, why are we propping up a country that has a space program?
Natalie
It's incredibly frustrating because federal workers are not being paid at the airports. We, you know, just traveled this weekend and we walked through and it's heartbreaking to watch these people, people go without paychecks and know that we're spending all this money to bomb Iran. It's really hard to take.
Clayton
So, professor, we're gonna take a quick break and we're gonna come back. We wanna ask you about your next big prediction and also about something you said last week, which is that this war powers we could be entering into with President Trump could even lead to a potential Trump third term. We'll talk about all of that in a moment. But first, today's episode is brought to you by Pocket Hose, the world's number, number one expandable hose. The brand new pocket hose copper head with pocket pivot is a total game changer. I absolutely love it because, you know, the old fashioned hoses always kink up crease right at the spigot and water like shoots out of the spigot. I don't know why it's such a pain in the butt. Anyway, the pocket pivot swivels 360 degrees so you get full water flow and a whole lot more free to move it around your yard or around your house. You know, it's been in the 80s here in the Denver metro area in Colorado. And so they even open the pool, getting their yard ready, cleaning out the garage of all the salt and debris from the winter. So getting that hose in the garage to be able to spray it out has been a game changer. And the thing is, when you're done with this hose, it shrinks right back down to pocket size. So you're not out here wrestling with some big bulky hose trying to coil it up. I also love that it's super lightweight, ultra durable, easy to store or you can keep it like in a little bucket like that guy. So after trying the pocket hose, I'm never going back. Watering the yard is just easier with this thing. And for a limited time, our listeners can get a free pocket Pivot and their 10 pattern sprayer with a purchase of any size Copperhead hose. Just text the word redacted news to 64,000. So just type in 64,000 in your phone and just type redacted news and you'll get two free gifts with your purchase. That's all you need to do is Type that to 64,000. Message and data rates may apply. See Terms for details. All right, we're back with Professor Zhang and to talk more about his predictions here and as well as possibly a Trump third term professor before we get into the Trump third term piece of this, as you're gaming out this war now and things have changed, I'm sure, since this, the first three and a half weeks of this thing. Where are you seeing your predictions pointing over the next month, maybe year or so? Are there any predictions that you'd want to reveal here on our show?
Professor Jiang
Yeah. So I will say that I think this war is heading in the direction of another Vietnam, meaning that 1965, the Americans sent in about 3,000 Marines in an expeditionary unit to control Dagnan Air Base. And this was a limited operation with a limited military objective. And then like four or five years later, you have half a million troops in Vietnam. And so we can see a similar situation play out in Iran where the Americans deploy the Marines in a limited operation, possibly to secure a coastline, possibly to take Carg island. We don't know yet. But then this will lead to escalation because of some cost fallacy and mission creep where the military set up so that it wants to win a war. And once it gets in a fight, it's not going to stop until it wins the war. And that's, and that's what happened in Vietnam. So once these troops are sent, no matter what happens, whether or not they are successful in the first strike or not successful, the Pentagon wants to finish the job, basically. And there'll be a lot of pressure from the military on Donald Trump to institute a national draft. And so I think he will have no choice in the matter but institute a national draft, in which case you will have riots throughout America. And they have a plan for that. Right. They want to deploy the National Guard across all major American cities by as early as April. And once that is in place, once the National Guard is in place, then Trump can declare the Emergency Powers Act. Right. And then he will get his third term and as well as bypass the midterm elections in November.
Clayton
So a third term without an election. Sort of like Zelensky, basically.
Natalie
Well, right. I mean, he already has a war without congressional declaration. And so again, I come back to we have rules and orders, and all of them are just being steamrolled right now. And you can hear my despair in the fact that it feels like you're not supposed to attack civilian living infrastructure. Oh, we did that. You're not supposed to attack civilians. Yes, we did that. You're not supposed to level a whole society in Gaza. Yeah, we did that, too. You're not supposed to have a war without congressional approval. You're not. I don't know what to do here. Right. The fact that the rules don't matter, and yet you can still see what's being played out in a game when there's no rules.
Professor Jiang
Right. So I think it's very worrying that this war. War started. Started in a way that was not the way the war started. 2003. So in 2003, the Bush administration spent months rallying public support. They won congressional approval. They spoke before the United nations and provided suspicious, specious evidence of weapons of mass destruction. But they provide evidence nonetheless. Okay? So the American government in 2003 made tremendous efforts to win over the American public, to seek congressional approval and to also win public opinion. Okay. To speak before the United Nations. None of this is true. Today the Trump administration went in, and even today, they have not provided actually a reason why they made the first strike. Trump has said that, well, it was because it was misled by his adviser, Steve Wyckoff, Jared Kushner, Peter Hasselhoff, and then Marco Rubio has said that, well, it's because the Israelis would attack first, and then the Iranians were going to respond by attacking us. And so we have to preempt the Israelis.
Clayton
Well, I mean, you know, I normally wouldn't want to point out the Economist magazine. Professor, I'm not a fan of that liberal rag normally, but at the airport, just reading the front cover, I think the headline, the front cover of the Economist magazine this past week is A War with no Plan. And I think you just hit the nail on the head. I mean, what is the plan here? Is there a plan? Do you see that there is an end game? Because people are asking, what's the goal here? Well, we're hearing nuclear. No more nuclear weapons. Well, they never have had nuclear weapons. They weren't building nuclear weapons. It's to help the Iranian people. So you help the Iranian people by killing their children and bombing their oil and desalinization infrastructure. Like none of it makes sense. Do you see any of it making sense?
Natalie
But let me just point out, having that within weeks of the start of the war is something Different. We had to wait years in the Iraq war to get this kind of narrative. We can at least have it from strike one. So there's my. I've been so pessimistic this whole interview. So I wanted to point out that I can see silver linings.
Professor Jiang
Look, I mean, if you just look at America's history in the Middle east for the past 20 years, what they did in Iraq, what they did in Libya and Syria, I think there is a plan. The plan is to Balkanize Iran into ethnic enclaves and destroy Iran's limited water infrastructure. Basically destroy the reservoirs, the power plants, and have these different ethnic groups fight over water for the next few few decades. It's really to destroy Persia as a civilization. And that's exactly what they did in Iraq. So remember, in 2003, the war was won one very quickly. And then Paul Bremer was appointed to oversee the transition. The second act, okay, the second he did was something called the De Baathication act, which said that if you were a member of the Baptist Party, you were not allowed to work in government, you were not allowed to work in the military, you were not allowed to work in the police. The problem with that is that everyone who worked in government, everyone who worked in the military, everyone who worked in the police was a member of the Ba' Athist party. And so with that one order, it destroyed the nation state of Iraq. It destroyed the government of Iraq and its ability to deliver basic services to the Iraqi people. And this led to massive sectarian violence that's still raging today in Iraq. So I think that's the end goal in Iran, to do in Iran what they did in Iraq and Libya and Syria. But they can't come out and say this because the entire world would be disgusted with this plan.
Clayton
I guess we'll get you out of here on this, Professor. We haven't really talked about the media propaganda piece of all of this, which is really ramped into overdrive. You heard over the past few days the same publications that were telling us in the Ukraine war that Russia had run out of ballistic missiles is the same media that's now telling us that Iran has run out of ballistic missiles and they are being hindered and they're being shattered. And you know, this will wrap up very, very soon. How do you. When you. When you analyze the media propaganda arm of all of this, how do you see it unfolding?
Professor Jiang
Right? So I think you're exactly correct in, like, the media will just be as propagandistic in this war against Iran. As it was against Ukraine. So the problem with this though is unfortunately, Washington D.C. has become an insular bubble. And so if you are negative, if you voice any dissent, if you're critical like Joe Cat, well, you're pushed out of the bubble very quickly. And so basically everyone in Washington D.C. is drinking their own Kool Aid, you know, getting high on their own supply. And this is very problematic because it will lead to bad decision, decision making. And this is what we saw in Ukraine where it was, I mean, like it was suicidal for Ukraine to launch counteroffensive against a heavily fortified Russian position. And by launching three counteroffensive that led to, that led nowhere, that accomplished no military objectives. The Ukrainians lost over about a million men of fighting age. But unfortunately, because the deep state, because Washington D.C. is able to control the media narrative, people aren't aware of this. And so this war in Ukraine is dragging on for not to try particular reason, even though it's led to the destruction of Ukraine as a nation state. And even though this war is not winnable. And we can see a similar situation in Iran where the war is being lost, where it's clear that the Iranians refuse to give up and they have clear escalation control. But Donald Trump is watching Fox News and he's watching, you know, NSBNBC and CNN and CBS News, and they have to tell him exactly what he wants to hear, which is this war is going great. The Iranian people love you. The Iranian people want democratic change. And one more day and we've got this. The Iranians are so close to collapse and we just stick on. We just fought on for one more week. We've got this. And then like five years later, we're still at the stupid war.
Clayton
Well, professor, thank you for, like staying awake for us and joining us on this show. I know the time zones are really, really.
Professor Jiang
All right, before we end, I just want to give a quick shout out to Tucker Carlson, okay. Because people don't remember this, but we could have been in this situation in January 2020, because that's when Trump ordered the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad. And this was clearly an act of war. And it seemed as though the Americans were going to follow us up with airstrikes against Iran. So we should have been in this situation in. Jerry, what happened was Tucker Carlson on Fox News using his huge platform every day. He explained why this war would be disaster for America. I think he even flew down to Mar A Lago to talk to Trump personally. Okay. But Tara Carlson saved us from nuclear war in 2020. And for that, was fired from Fox News. And people don't. Don't remember what a, what a heroic act that was because he's the only broadcaster in a major platform that came out to speak out against the war.
Natalie
Great personal risk. Yes. He continues to do that at great personal risk. So.
Clayton
Yes. Yeah. And then speaking out against the Ukraine war and the United States involvement in that, you know. You know, that's why. Yes, that. And that's why he got fired from Fox News, Clearly. Professor. Yeah. 100%. One of the few voices on national television who was calling out these neocons and this boondoggle that would have been a disaster for the United States. So thank you for that, Professor. Thank you so much for the wacky time zones and burning the midnight oil to be up with us. We really, really appreciate it. Thank you for your incredible work. We want to drive everyone to your substack and to your YouTube channel. It's remarkable. So thank you so much, Professor. We'd love to have you back. Really appreciate it.
Professor Jiang
Yeah, no, I love talking to you guys. Yeah, I mean, I would love to come back.
Natalie
We've been looking forward to it. So. Yes. Open invitation.
Clayton
Thanks, Professor. Yeah, anytime. You're welcome. So thank you so much. Really appreciate it. All right. Thanks, Professor. Wow. Unbelievable. And, you know, I just. A couple of things are just hitting me as I'm sort of digesting this interview, but I think his point on the sunk cost fallacy piece of this is so troubling because it is like Vietnam, you know, it is like Vietnam all over again. This idea that we need to just save face. So we're just trying to save face, but we're. We don't care.
Natalie
Yeah.
Clayton
That thousands of people will die, but we just want to do it to save face so that Trump doesn't look bad or the Pentagon doesn't look bad,
Natalie
that the Iraq war was launched to cure Vietnam Syndrome. Like, people are upset that we did that two decades ago. Let's start another war that we can win, and then we'll be. Be emboldened again, and people will not remember Vietnam Syndrome. But what did that do is collectively give us all worse Vietnam Syndrome. At least that's what I've got now. You know, there's no cure for that. There's no. The only cure for that is mind your own damn business, which we don't seem able to do.
Clayton
No. And his other point about the military, I mean, we're just a flexing to have these aircraft carriers that are just sort of sitting there. They're not there for a, any real power at all, just a flex. And that's exactly what Douglas McGregor, Colonel Douglas MacGregor has said that our military has built for a post World War II era. So aircraft carriers. And there's a lot of questions like what happened to the USS Gerald Ford? Like was it actually sabotage internally or was it actually struck by Iran, which they claim they struck that target and the United States is not saying a word about it. So did Iran actually strike the USS Gerald Ford? Now it's out of commission from two years, right? Two years. The most advanced aircraft carrier in our entire fleet is now side sidetracked. Yes, two years.
Natalie
And the lack of information, the lack of, you know, this playing out on X on our TV screens. It very much feels like if you've ever read Jean Baudrillard, the Gulf War did not exist. It is being fought in a propagandist way. But real lives are at stake, which is horrid. So anyway, well, that's going to do it for us today.
Clayton
Today.
Natalie
Anything else?
Clayton
We have a newsletter. Yeah, we'd love for you to check out our daily newsletter. If you go to redacted.inc is the place to go. It's free to sign up. It's delivered to your inbox first thing in the morning. It's a way to stay connected with us because you know these platforms, they love to censor us, they love to block us, they love to do all of that. And that way we have a direct line to you. But we provide a great newsletter first thing in the morning so you can read it over your cup of coffee. Read in about five or 10 minutes covering like the big screen stories of the day. And all you do is go to redacted.inc click on the newsletter button at the top, you'll receive a welcome email. Might go to your spam folder, junk folder, so dig for it. You just need to click the link there to confirm that you do want to receive it, drag it over to your inbox. That way you'll receive it first thing the next morning. So thanks to all of you for subscribing to the channel and being a part of our great community here. We really, really appreciate, appreciate it and we'll see you back here Tomorrow live at 4:00pm Eastern Time. Have a great afternoon everyone.
Professor Jiang
Carvana's so easy. Just a click and we've got ourselves a car. See so many cars.
Clayton
That's a clicktastic inventory.
Professor Jiang
And check out the financing options, payments to fit our budget.
Natalie
I mean, that's Clickonomics101.
Professor Jiang
Delivery to our door.
Natalie
Just a hop, skip and a click away. And bot, no better feeling than when everything just clicks. Buy your car today on Carvana. Delivery fees may apply.
Clayton
This is Mike Borlow of Lexicon Valley
Professor Jiang
and I'm Bob Garfield. Are you one of those people who sometimes uses words?
Clayton
Do you communicate or acquire information with, you know, language?
Natalie
Hey, us too.
Professor Jiang
So join us on Lexicon Valley to true over the history, culture and many mysteries of English, plus some lice cracks. Find us on one of those apps
Clayton
where people listen to podcasts.
Professor Jiang
Hi, this is Alex Canceroitz. I'm the host of Big Technology Podcast, a longtime reporter and an on air contributor to cnbc. And if you're like me, you're trying to figure out how artificial intelligence is changing the business world and our lives. So each week on Big Technology, I bring on key actors from companies building AI tech and outsiders trying to influence it, asking where this is all going. They come from places like Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and plenty more. So if you want to be smart with your wallet, your career choices, in meetings with your colleagues and at dinner parties, listen to Big Technology Podcast. Wherever you get your podcasts.
Date: March 24, 2026
Host(s): Clayton & Natali Morris
Guest: Professor Jiang (author of Predictive History, high school teacher in China, YouTuber)
Theme: Analyzing the US-Iran war, the rise of Trump’s administration, escalation and game theory, predictions for global order, and the consequences for US democracy.
This high-stakes episode tackles the unfolding US-Iran war three weeks after open conflict began under President Trump’s new administration and the controversial possibility of Trump using war powers to seek a third term. Professor Jiang, a Chinese educator whose game theory model predicted Trump’s re-election—and the current war—provides in-depth analysis of escalation, morale, elite manipulation, and the risk that America is headed for another Vietnam-style quagmire. The discussion spans historical analogies, media propaganda, global implications, and the power struggle inside the US and Israel.
(03:42 – 06:35)
(07:26 – 13:35)
(17:26 – 24:54)
(24:54 – 36:58)
(36:58 – 40:59)
(40:59 – 45:35)
(45:35 – 49:05)
(49:05 – 54:40)
(54:40 – 56:21)
(59:04 – 62:44)
(62:44 – 65:53)
(68:04–69:50)
The episode is a stark, unsparing conversation about the road from “three day war” rhetoric to possible generational disaster. It illustrates how war, public opinion, and global power are manipulated—and how ordinary people are left to make sense, resist, and survive. Prof. Jiang closes with sober optimism that agency, modeling, and dissent can still impact the unfolding crisis.