We recently ran a strategy fellowship through Astra. As part of this, we ran a reading group for our fellows on some of the topics that we think are important for thinking about AI futurism (key dynamics in AI development, existential risk from AI, and approaches to mitigating risk). This post contains the reading list we used.

The selection reflects my opinionated views of the field, focuses particularly on topics we happen to focus on at Redwood, and doesn’t aim to be comprehensive.

I selected readings that I thought described conceptual frames and hypotheses in AI futurism that are regularly used by me and my coworkers. I think it is a good exercise to consider whether you agree with their theses and ways in which their predictions have fared well or badly in light of recent evidence.

If you have suggestions for this reading list, please let me know.

How to use this reading list

This reading list has a core and extended section.

Core readings are organized into 4 weeks. Each week covers <8 hours of foundational context on a topic.
- Topics are chosen for (1) general importance for AI risk threat modeling and/or [...]

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Outline:

(01:00) How to use this reading list

(01:49) Core readings

(01:53) Week 1: Timelines / takeoff modeling

(05:29) Week 2: Misaligned AI takeover threat modeling

(10:20) Week 3: Control

(13:25) Week 4: Governance / strategy

(17:51) Extended readings

(17:58) Trading with AIs

(18:44) Power concentration/coup prevention

(19:15) Acausal stuff

(19:54) Moral patienthood

(21:13) AI biorisk / other AI x-risk

(22:23) Model spec

(23:41) Better futures / Post AGI governance

(24:06) Space governance

The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
July 2nd, 2026

Source:
https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/ai-futurism-reading-list

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.