Religion on the Mind with Dan Koch Episode 363: Cognitive Distortions & Religion, Pt 2: Jumping to Conclusions
Guest: Molly LaCroix, LMFT
Date: November 24, 2025

Episode Overview

In this installment of the Cognitive Distortions and Religion miniseries, host Dan Koch and returning guest Molly LaCroix (Internal Family Systems therapist and author) delve into the cognitive distortion called "Jumping to Conclusions." They explore its psychological roots, manifestations in therapy, impacts within religious communities, and intersections with spiritual abuse. The episode balances psychological concepts with biblical texts, religious traditions, and practical advice—emphasizing humility, curiosity, and slowing down as antidotes. The conversation is honest, nuanced, and peppered with light cursing and pop-culture references.

Key Themes and Discussion Points

1. Defining "Jumping to Conclusions" (02:41, 07:02)

• Modern Psychological Definition:
  "Jumping to conclusions happens when we form beliefs without sufficient evidence. And a good antidote is to do the opposite, to intentionally look for evidence for or against that belief." (Dan Koch, 07:02)

• This is a universal human tendency, not just a pathology; therapy clients often present with negativity-biased versions of this (02:41–03:43).

2. Personal Example: Making up Stories and Self-Reflection (04:54)

• Molly’s Example:
  Molly assumed, after not hearing back about the podcast, that Dan “didn’t make the cut.” Her mind constructed stories that weren’t based on evidence—a classic jump to conclusions colored by self-doubt. (04:54–06:46)
• Insight:
  Negative interpretations of ambiguous situations are more common than positive ones.

3. The Power of Slowing Down (10:34–11:31)

• Therapeutic & Spiritual Benefits:
  Healing and spiritual growth require slowing down, cultivating self-awareness, and resisting the urge to rush to judgment.

  "The process of healing—and when we think of it in a spiritual lens, the process of spiritual formation—requires us to slow down... Noticing that we're doing it. We have to slow down to cultivate the self-awareness to catch ourselves in the act." (Molly, 10:34)

• There is strong resonance between therapeutic advice and religious teachings: avoid hasty judgments, foster wisdom and virtue (11:31).

4. Mood Congruent Thinking & Emotional States (17:54–21:22)

• How Mood Colors Thought:
  Our emotional state drives our interpretations—if we feel low, we are more likely to jump to negative conclusions.

  "...my thoughts change along with my mood. And so I will say or think things at different times congruent with different moods that are in contradiction with each other." (Dan, 17:54)

• Self-assessment Tip:
  Notice your mood before trusting the conclusions you're jumping to (20:45–21:22).

5. Jumping to Conclusions Isn't Always Negative (21:22–23:20)

• Can also show up as unearned confidence or grandiosity during manic/hypomanic episodes (21:22).

6. Evidence vs. Perspective—Therapeutic Antidotes (23:18–34:30)

• Cognitive Therapy Approach:
  Look for hard evidence as if you’re in court, not just feelings or assumptions (28:00).

• Internal Family Systems (IFS) Approach:
  Bring perspective and curiosity to the “parts” of us that jump to conclusions—see them as protectors, not enemies (24:04–28:00).

  "We would recognize [jumping to conclusions] as the strategy of a protective member of the internal family, it's a strategy that's adopted to protect us from vulnerability." (Molly, 24:37)

• Integration:
  Therapists balance "front door" (direct challenge to logic) and "back door" (validating internal stories and protections) approaches.

7. Evolutionary Psychology & Heuristics (34:33–42:29)

• Survival Over Accuracy:
  We evolved to overreact to ambiguity for survival: "False positives are less dangerous than false negatives."
• Modern Maladaptations:
  This tendency underlies tribalism, confirmation bias, conspiracy thinking, and even religious "insider/outsider" dynamics.
• Connection to Religion:
  Both scripture-quoting and social group language serve as signals of "insider" status (39:54, 41:03).

8. Biblical Case Studies & Religious Tradition Buffers (44:15–60:43)

• Job’s friends: classical error of jumping to conclusions about suffering—challenges retributive justice.

• Prosperity Gospel & modern-day analogs: same cognitive missteps (44:15–46:33, 51:47).

• Jesus and the man born blind: exposes the disciples' faulty assumptions (51:47–52:34).

• The Catechism of the Catholic Church: classifies rash judgment as a moral fault, virtually identical to this distortion (57:22).

  "It defines rash judgment as assuming something negative about a neighbor without sufficient ground." (Dan, 57:22)

• Parallels exist in Buddhism, Hinduism, and Jainism—reinforcing the religious consensus against hasty judgment and for curiosity and empathy (60:15–60:43).

9. Spiritual Abuse and Jumping to Conclusions (61:01–68:13)

• Abuse in Reporting:
  Dismissing or minimizing harm based on assumptions (e.g., "Oh, you must have misunderstood").

• Confirmation Bias in Institutions:
  Protecting abusive leadership by quickly siding with the powerful.

• Preachers' Authority and Conclusion Jumping:
  Stating tradition as universal truth leads both to spiritual abuse and distorted thinking (64:14–70:31).

  "If you put something like [‘in this tradition’] in front, then I think you get rid of the jumping to conclusions part because now you're just saying something accurate." (Dan, 64:14)

• Congregant Responsibility:
  Molly notes that people often unquestioningly ascribe authority to pastors, abdicating their own interpretive responsibility (67:09).

10. Leap of Faith vs. Jumping to Conclusions (73:52–79:25)

• Core Distinction:
  Jumping to conclusions = unearned confidence without evidence
  Leap of faith = recognizing ambiguity and choosing commitment despite incomplete evidence

• Tolerance for Ambiguity:
  Healthy spirituality requires humility about what can be known, and the ability to hold doctrines provisionally.

  "Jumping to conclusions, we might say, comes from a need for cognitive closure... A mature leap of faith...actually requires a tolerance of ambiguity." (Dan, 77:26)

11. Practical and Spiritual Takeaways (96:26)

• Key Practical Antidotes:

  • Slow down and cultivate self-awareness.
  • Actively seek evidence for/against your beliefs.
  • Cultivate curiosity and empathy toward yourself and others.
  • Hold beliefs provisionally, remain open to learning.

• Religious Traditions' Consensus:
  All major traditions advise slowing down, gathering full information, and approaching others with curiosity over suspicion.

  "Jumping to conclusions happens when we form beliefs without sufficient evidence. And the best antidote to that is to do the opposite, intentionally look for evidence for or against that belief." (Dan, 07:02 and 96:26)

Notable Quotes & Moments

Negativity Bias Example (02:41–03:43):

"Do we ever assume that that other person didn't text me back...for a positive reason? No. We pretty much always jump to the conclusion that they don't care about us or we're not important." (Molly, 02:41)

Levity via Pop Culture (08:15):

"Jump to conclusions, Matt...you could jump to...different conclusions." – Reference to Office Space (Dan, 08:15)

Link to Mood:

"I will say or think things at different times congruent with different moods that are in contradiction with each other." (Dan, 17:54)

On Slowing Down:

"Healing requires slowing down. Spiritual formation requires us to slow down. And there's so much value...particularly [with] jumping to conclusions in slowing down." (Molly, 10:34)

Therapeutic Integration:

"Therapists balance 'front door' (direct challenge to logic) and 'back door' (validating internal stories and protections) approaches." (34:06–34:29)

Cognitive Therapy Courtroom Metaphor:

"Feelings alone, we don't count...as evidence for what we have to do...what counts as evidence is something that a neutral third party would agree is evidence." (Dan, 28:00)

Religious Wisdom Synthesis:

"...world religions...speak kind of in one voice about this question. From what I can tell...a healthier approach than jumping to conclusions involves...slowing down, seeking fuller information, fuller understanding, and...approaching the other individuals...with empathy and curiosity." (Dan, 59:07–60:15)

Motivation and Humility:

"[Jumping to conclusions is] a humble way of differentiating. There are arrogant ways of...aligning oneself with a particular denomination." (Molly, 73:11)

Tolerance of Ambiguity – Clinical Application:

"It's just an interesting...to get curious about why is certainty so potent? Why is ambiguity challenging for my system in a given setting, situation, stage of life, whatever?" (Molly, 79:25)

Other Religious Parables and Analogies (89:40–95:22)

Farmer and Horse Parable (“We’ll See”):
A Buddhist/Taoist story advocating against premature labeling of events as good or bad—reinforcing openness and resisting cognitive closure.

Blind Men and the Elephant:
From Buddhism, Hinduism, Jainism—highlights limited perspective, the wisdom of humility, and the danger of jumping to conclusions about ultimate reality.

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 02:41 – Molly’s introduction to the pervasiveness of jumping to conclusions
• 04:54 – Molly’s personal story (show invitation)
• 07:02 – Practically defining the distortion and its antidote
• 10:34 – Clinical and spiritual importance of slowing down
• 17:54 – Mood congruent thinking explained
• 21:22 – Manic episodes and positive jumps to conclusions
• 23:53 – Evidence vs. perspective (Cognitive and IFS approaches)
• 34:33 – Evolutionary psych: safety vs. accuracy, tribalism, confirmation bias
• 44:15 – Job’s friends, prosperity gospel, just world hypothesis in scripture
• 51:47 – Jesus and the man born blind, modern spiritual blaming
• 57:22 – Catechism of the Catholic Church on rash judgment
• 61:01 – Spiritual abuse: clergy minimizing and defending against abuse reports
• 64:14 – Teaching tradition vs. speaking for God, risks of authority
• 73:52 – Leap of faith vs. jumping to conclusions
• 79:25 – Ambiguity, healing, and individual differences
• 89:40 – Parables from Buddhist and Hindu tradition
• 96:26 – Final recap, summary takeaways

Conclusion

Jumping to Conclusions is a cognitive distortion with evolutionary roots and broad cultural/religious consequences. Therapists and spiritual leaders alike are wise to draw on humility, curiosity, and self-assessment to counteract it—helping both individuals and communities move towards greater wisdom, empathy, and health. The episode closes with optimism and lightheartedness as Dan and Molly reflect on their conversation and model the very humility and curiosity they advocate.

Contact:
dan@religiononthemind.com

Listen for future episodes in the miniseries—some available via Patreon only!