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President Trump delivered a record-breaking, nearly two-hour State of the Union address on Tuesday, projecting confidence amid low approval ratings around 39% and challenges heading into the 2026 midterms. He emphasized immigration as a core Republican pitch, railing against illegal immigration, pushing the SAVE America Act for voter ID and citizenship proof, and highlighting border security and deporting violent criminals, which drew roaring GOP applause while Democrats stayed seated, creating a viral contrast Republicans hope energizes their base. Trump also demanded extension of the controversial Section 702 spy law, codifying drug-pricing deals, banning congressional stock trading, tougher crime laws, and limits on corporate home buying, though many face steep odds in Congress.

Polling from ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos shows Republicans competitive in House races, with voters split 47% Democrat to 45% Republican among registered voters, despite Trump's unpopularity—Democrats lead slightly overall, but independents' preferences fluctuate like in past cycles. Most Republicans, especially MAGA supporters making up 54% of the party, want GOP leaders to follow Trump's direction, up from prior years, even as he repeats unsubstantiated 2020 election claims and backs nationalizing elections or FBI ballot seizures, ideas opposed by most Americans.

The RNC aligns closely with Trump, shuffling leadership recently while sticking to mass deportation and reindustrialization pushes amid a sluggish economy and inflation blamed on Democrats. Trump dismissed a Supreme Court tariff ruling, vowing new global levies via executive action. Midterm strategists see his speech giving breathing room on immigration, where public support for security exists despite backlash to enforcement tactics, potentially offsetting economic vulnerabilities. Candidates like Rep. Buddy Carter in Georgia are already leveraging the moment against Democrats. Experts note Trump's weakened position with plummeting Latino and independent support, slow Epstein files rollout, and international tensions, yet he refuses policy shifts, betting on base appeal.

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