Is Retail Entering 2026 with More Certainty Than Ever?

Fresh off the energy of ICSC New York, Chris Ressa and Carly Iacono unpack what really matters in retail real estate right now and where the market is headed into 2026. In this episode of What’s in Store, they move past surface-level headlines and dig into the conversations happening behind closed doors with investors, landlords, and retailers alike. pasted

One clear theme emerged: certainty has returned, but the conversation has shifted. Cap rates are no longer viewed solely through the lens of interest rates. Instead, investors are pricing risk based on tenant quality, sector fundamentals, and long-term demand. At the same time, retailers are facing a supply crunch, with limited availability in top shopping centers constraining expansion, even as new stores continue to outperform expectations.

Chris and Carly also explore the rising demand for value net lease deals, the growing challenge of maintaining long weighted average lease terms, and why long-term credit tenants have become harder to find. Perhaps most encouraging, retailers are reinvesting heavily in their physical stores, signaling renewed confidence in brick-and-mortar retail.

Taken together, these insights paint a clear picture: retail is not just resilient. It is evolving with discipline, data, and conviction.

What You’ll Hear

Why cap rates are being driven more by risk than rates
How supply constraints are reshaping retailer expansion plans
Why value net lease assets are suddenly in high demand
What strong new-store performance signals about consumer behavior
How retailers are prioritizing physical stores again
What the absence of AI chatter says about the current cycle
Why these trends matter heading into 2026

Chapters

00:07 – Setting the Stage at ICSC New York

Chris and Carly explain why ICSC remains the most important deal-making forum in retail real estate.

02:30 – Why Cap Rates Are No Longer Just About Interest Rates

The discussion shifts to how investors are pricing risk by sector and tenant quality.

10:25 – Liquidity Returns and What It Means for Deal Volume

Improving credit markets are quietly unlocking stalled transactions.

12:07 – The Real Supply Constraint Retailers Are Facing

Retailers want to grow, but many cannot find space in their top target centers.

15:51 – Value Net Lease Becomes a Hot Asset Class

Short-term and below-market leases attract intense buyer demand.

25:28 – New Stores Are Outperforming Expectations

Retailers report new locations beating pro forma sales projections.

31:39 – The Challenge of Long-Term Credit and Lease Duration

Maintaining portfolio WALT is getting harder as long-term deals become scarce.

34:23 – Retailers Reinvest in the In-Store Experience

Capital is flowing back into physical stores through remodels and upgrades.

37:05 – The Surprising Silence Around AI and Labor

Two dominant topics from past conferences barely register this year.

38:34 – Why These Trends Point Toward 2026

Chris and Carly explain why these themes are just the beginning.

The Conversations You Didn’t Hear at ICSC New York