Chris Orestis, founder & president of Retirement Genius, answers the question: “Is Social Security going bankrupt?”

“If we don’t address the financial shortfall… it would trigger an immediate 20% or greater benefit cut.”

That statement tends to stop people in their tracks.

It also fuels one of the most common fears I hear from clients:

“Is Social Security going to run out?”

In this conversation with Chris Orestis, we tackled that question head-on—and the answer is more nuanced than most headlines suggest.

Social Security Isn’t Going Broke—But That Doesn’t Mean You Can Ignore It

One of the biggest misconceptions is that Social Security will simply disappear.

That’s not what’s happening.

As Chris explained, the issue isn’t that the entire system goes bankrupt. The concern is that the trust fund portion of Social Security funding could become insolvent within the next decade if no action is taken.

And if that happens?

Benefits could be reduced by roughly 20% across the board.

That’s a meaningful change—but it’s very different from “gone.”

Understanding that distinction is critical, because fear often leads to poor decisions.

Why This Problem Exists

At its core, Social Security is a math problem.

Today’s system relies heavily on current workers funding current retirees. It takes roughly three workers paying into the system for every one person receiving benefits.

As the population ages and workforce dynamics shift, that balance is being strained.

Fewer workers per retiree means less funding relative to the benefits being paid out.

That’s what creates the pressure on the system.

Why This Won’t Be Ignored

While the math is straightforward, the solution is not.

Chris described Social Security as the “third rail” of politics—something policymakers are reluctant to touch.

But there’s an important reality here:

The impact of doing nothing would be too large to ignore.

A sudden 20%+ reduction in benefits wouldn’t just affect retirees. It would ripple through the entire economy.

That’s why, historically, these issues get addressed—often later than ideal, but before catastrophic outcomes occur.

What Changes Could Look Like

Fixing the system will likely require a combination of adjustments.

As Chris outlined, those could include:

Increasing payroll taxes
Adjusting retirement age eligibility
Modifying how benefits are calculated
Changing how income is taxed within the system

In other words, it won’t be one lever.

It will be several.

And importantly, those changes are unlikely to impact people who are already very close to retirement in the same way they might affect younger generations.

Don’t Make Fear-Based Decisions

One of the most important takeaways from this conversation is what not to do.

Recently, there has been a noticeable increase in people claiming Social Security at age 62—not because it’s the optimal strategy, but because they’re afraid the system won’t be there later.

That’s a dangerous mindset.

As Chris made clear, Social Security is not disappearing. And making a permanent decision based on fear can significantly reduce your lifetime income.

In many cases, waiting increases your benefit substantially—sometimes close to doubling between age 62 and 70.

That’s not a decision you want to rush.

What You Should Be Thinking About Instead

Rather than reacting to headlines or political noise, the better approach is to focus on what you can control.

If you’re within 3–5 years of claiming Social Security, the system is likely to look very similar to what it does today.

If you’re further out, it’s reasonable to assume that changes could happen—but those changes will likely be phased in over time.

In the Retire Today framework, Social Security falls under the MAKE step—your income.

But that decision connects to everything else:

Your SPEND plan
Your tax strategy (KEEP)
Your investment approach (INVEST)
And what you ultimately LEAVE behind

That’s why it’s so important to get it right.

The Bottom Line

Social Security isn’t going away.

But it isn’t standing still either.

Don’t make a permanent mistake with your Social Security decisions because of fear or insufficient information.

Because when it comes to retirement, clarity beats reaction every time.

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About the Author:

Jeremy Keil, CFP^®, CFA is a retirement financial advisor with Keil Financial Partners, author of Retire Today: Create Your Retirement Income Plan in 5 Simple Steps, and host of the Retirement Today blog and podcast, as well as the Mr. Retirement YouTube channel.

Jeremy is a contributor to Kiplinger and is frequently cited in publications like the Wall Street Journal and New York Times.

Additional Links:

Buy Jeremy’s book – Retire Today: Create Your Retirement Master Plan in 5 Simple Steps
Can Americans Really Rely on Social Security? With Chris Orestis – Mr. Retirement YouTube Channel
Chris Orestis on LinkedIn
RetirementGenius.com
Chris Orestis Website
“The Retirement Genius” podcast with Chris Orestis
www.longevityillustrator.org

Connect With Jeremy Keil:

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